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Project #2 – Probability Paper (Click Here to Submit)

Attached Files:

For this project we will be doing several tasks related to probability.

I. STOCK ANALYSIS

First, download the attached Excel file. It has collected stock information from Yahoo.

For this part of the project, you are going to use data from the following three stocks: Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL) and Staples (SPLS) for 2015.

1) Find the difference between opening and closing values for each day for each stock. Using this information, for each stock, find the probability each stock’s value went down on a randomly given day.

2) Find the average closing value for each stock. For each stock, find the probability that a randomly chosen day had a closing value above the mean value.

3) Based on your information, which stocks did well on a daily basis in 2015? Which stocks did poorly? Why?

II. MONTE HALL

Next, go to http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html. Don’t read the explanation first!

1) Practice the game a few times and then seriously play the game at least 50 times. Basically, you are trying to win a car behind one of the three doors. The other two doors have goats which are not winners. Once you select a door, one of the losing doors is revealed. You are then asked whether you want to switch your choice or not. Record whether you switched or did not for each game and whether you won. You should decide to switch at least 20 times but not more than 30 times.

2) Create a simple frequency table with your choices and results.

3) Find the probability of winning when you switched and the probability of winning if you did not. Do the results surprise you?

4) Now read the explanation. Explain in your own words why choosing to switch or not affects your probability of winning.

Please write-up the answers to the above questions in a Word document. It should have a title page, introduction, and a conclusion and be free of spelling and grammatical mistakes.

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