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Daniel B. McLaughlin
John R. Olson

Healthcare
Operations
Management
T h i r d E d i T i o n

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Marymount University

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Title: Healthcare operations management / Daniel B. McLaughlin and John R. Olson.
Description: Third edition. | Chicago, Illinois : Health Administration Press; Washington, DC :
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To my wife, Sharon, and daughters, Kelly and Katie, for their love and support
throughout my career.

—Dan McLaughlin

To my father, Adolph Olson, who passed away in 2011. Your strength as you
battled cancer inspired me to change and educate others about our healthcare
system.

—John Olson

The first edition of this book was coauthored by Julie Hays. During the final
stages of the completion of the book, Julie unexpectedly died. As Dr. Christopher
Puto, dean of the Opus College of Business at the University of St. Thomas, said,
“Julie cared deeply about students and their learning experience, and she was
an accomplished scholar who was well respected by her peers.” This book is a final
tribute to Julie’s accomplished career and is dedicated to her legacy.

—Dan McLaughlin
and John Olson

vii

BRIEF CONTENTS

Preface …………………………………………………………………………………………xv

Part I Introduction to Healthcare Operations

Chapter 1. The Challenge and the Opportunity …………………………….3

Chapter 2. History of Performance Improvement ………………………..17

Chapter 3. Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing ….45

Part II Setting Goals and Executing Strategy

Chapter 4. Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard …………………………..71

Chapter 5. Project Management ……………………………………………….97

Part III Performance Improvement Tools, Techniques, and Programs

Chapter 6. Tools for Problem Solving and Decision Making ………..135

Chapter 7. Statistical Thinking and Statistical Problem Solving ……..167

Chapter 8. Healthcare Analytics ……………………………………………..203

Chapter 9. Quality Management: Focus on Six Sigma …………………221

Chapter 10. The Lean Enterprise ………………………………………………255

Part IV Applications to Contemporary Healthcare Operations Issues

Chapter 11. Process Improvement and Patient Flow …………………….281

Chapter 12. Scheduling and Capacity Management ………………………323

Chapter 13. Supply Chain Management ……………………………………..345

Chapter 14. Improving Financial Performance with Operations
Management ………………………………………………………..369

viii Brief Contents

Part V Putting It All Together for Operational Excellence

Chapter 15. Holding the Gains …………………………………………………391

Glossary …………………………………………………………………………………….411
Index ………………………………………………………………………………………..419
About the Authors ………………………………………………………………………..437

ix

DETAILED CONTENTS

Preface …………………………………………………………………………………………xv

Part I Introduction to Healthcare Operations

Chapter 1. The Challenge and the Opportunity …………………………….3
Overview ………………………………………………………………..3
The Purpose of This Book ………………………………………….3
The Challenge ………………………………………………………….4
The Opportunity ……………………………………………………..6
A Systems Look at Healthcare …………………………………….8
An Integrating Framework for Operations Management

in Healthcare ……………………………………………………..12
Conclusion …………………………………………………………….15
Discussion Questions ………………………………………………15
References ……………………………………………………………..15

Chapter 2. History of Performance Improvement ………………………..17
Operations Management in Action …………………………….17
Overview ………………………………………………………………17
Background……………………………………………………………18
Knowledge-Based Management …………………………………20
History of Scientific Management ………………………………22
Project Management ……………………………………………….26
Introduction to Quality ……………………………………………27
Philosophies of Performance Improvement ………………….34
Supply Chain Management ……………………………………….38
Big Data and Analytics …………………………………………….40
Conclusion …………………………………………………………….41
Discussion Questions ………………………………………………41
References ……………………………………………………………..42

Chapter 3. Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing ….45
Operations Management in Action …………………………….45

x Detai led Contents

Overview ………………………………………………………………45
Evidence-Based Medicine …………………………………………46
Tools to Expand the Use of Evidence-Based Medicine …..54
Clinical Decision Support …………………………………………59
The Future of Evidence-Based Medicine and Value

Purchasing …………………………………………………………62
Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System and Pay for

Performance ………………………………………………………63
Conclusion …………………………………………………………….64
Discussion Questions ………………………………………………64
Note …………………………………………………………………….64
References ……………………………………………………………..65

Part II Setting Goals and Executing Strategy

Chapter 4. Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard …………………………..71
Operations Management in Action …………………………….71
Overview ………………………………………………………………71
Moving Strategy to Execution …………………………………..72
The Balanced Scorecard in Healthcare ……………………….75
The Balanced Scorecard as Part of a Strategic

Management System ……………………………………………76
Elements of the Balanced Scorecard System …………………76
Conclusion …………………………………………………………….93
Discussion Questions ………………………………………………93
Exercises ……………………………………………………………….94
References ……………………………………………………………..94
Further Reading ……………………………………………………..95

Chapter 5. Project Management ……………………………………………….97
Operations Management in Action ……………………………97
Overview ………………………………………………………………97
Definition of a Project ……………………………………………..99
Project Selection and Chartering ……………………………..100
Project Scope and Work Breakdown …………………………107
Scheduling …………………………………………………………..113
Project Control …………………………………………………….117
Quality Management, Procurement, the Project

Management Office, and Project Closure ………………120
Agile Project Management ……………………………………..124
Innovation Centers ………………………………………………..125

xiDetai led Contents

The Project Manager and Project Team …………………….126
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..129
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….129
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..129
References ……………………………………………………………130
Further Reading ……………………………………………………130

Part III Performance Improvement Tools, Techniques, and Programs

Chapter 6. Tools for Problem Solving and Decision Making ………..135
Operations Management in Action …………………………..135
Overview …………………………………………………………….135
Decision-Making Framework …………………………………..136
Mapping Techniques ……………………………………………..138
Problem Identification Tools …………………………………..143
Analytical Tools …………………………………………………….153
Implementation: Force Field Analysis ……………………….162
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..163
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….163
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..164
References ……………………………………………………………165

Chapter 7. Statistical Thinking and Statistical Problem Solving ……..167
Operations Management in Action …………………………..167
Overview: Statistical Thinking in Healthcare ………………167
Foundations of Data Analysis …………………………………..169
Graphic Tools ……………………………………………………….169
Mathematical Descriptions ……………………………………..174
Probability …………………………………………………………..178
Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing ……………..185
Simple Linear Regression………………………………………..192
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..198
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….199
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..199
References ……………………………………………………………201

Chapter 8. Healthcare Analytics ………………………………………………203
Operations Management in Action …………………………..203
Overview …………………………………………………………….203
What Is Analytics in Healthcare? ………………………………203
Introduction to Data Analytics ………………………………..205

xii Detai led Contents

Data Visualization …………………………………………………209
Data Mining for Discovery ……………………………………..214
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..217
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….218
Note …………………………………………………………………..218
References …………………………………………………………..219

Chapter 9. Quality Management—Focus on Six Sigma ……………….221
Operations Management in Action …………………………..221
Overview …………………………………………………………….221
Defining Quality …………………………………………………..222
Cost of Quality ……………………………………………………..223
The Six Sigma Quality Program ……………………………….225
Additional Quality Tools ………………………………………..240
Riverview Clinic Six Sigma Generic Drug Project ……….245
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..250
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….250
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..250
References ……………………………………………………………253

Chapter 10. The Lean Enterprise ………………………………………………255
Operations Management in Action …………………………..255
Overview …………………………………………………………….255
What Is Lean? ………………………………………………………256
Types of Waste ……………………………………………………..257
Kaizen …………………………………………………………………259
Value Stream Mapping …………………………………………..259
Additional Measures and Tools ………………………………..261
The Merging of Lean and Six Sigma Programs …………..274
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..276
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….276
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..277
References ……………………………………………………………277

Part IV Applications to Contemporary Healthcare Operations Issues

Chapter 11. Process Improvement and Patient Flow …………………….281
Operations Management in Action …………………………..281
Overview …………………………………………………………….281
Problem Types ……………………………………………………..282
Patient Flow …………………………………………………………283

xiiiDetai led Contents

Process Improvement Approaches ……………………………284
The Science of Lines: Queuing Theory …………………….292
Process Improvement in Practice ……………………………..304
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..318
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….319
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..319
References ……………………………………………………………320
Further Reading ……………………………………………………321

Chapter 12. Scheduling and Capacity Management ………………………323
Operations Management in Action …………………………..323
Overview …………………………………………………………….323
Hospital Census and Rough-Cut Capacity Planning ……324
Staff Scheduling ……………………………………………………326
Job and Operation Scheduling and Sequencing Rules ….330
Patient Appointment Scheduling Models …………………..334
Advanced-Access Patient Scheduling …………………………337
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..341
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….341
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..341
References ……………………………………………………………342

Chapter 13. Supply Chain Management ……………………………………..345
Operations Management in Action …………………………..345
Overview …………………………………………………………….345
Supply Chain Management ……………………………………..346
Tracking and Managing Inventory ……………………………347
Demand Forecasting ……………………………………………..349
Order Amount and Timing …………………………………….354
Inventory Systems …………………………………………………362
Procurement and Vendor Relationship Management ……364
Strategic View ………………………………………………………364
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..365
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….366
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..366
References ……………………………………………………………368

Chapter 14. Improving Financial Performance with Operations
Management ………………………………………………………..369
Operations Management in Action …………………………..369
Overview: The Financial Pressure for Change …………….369

xiv Detai led Contents

Making Ends Meet on Medicare and the Pressure of
Narrow Networks ……………………………………………..370

Conclusion …………………………………………………………..386
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….386
Exercises ……………………………………………………………..387
Note …………………………………………………………………..387
References ……………………………………………………………387

Part V Putting It All Together for Operational Excellence

Chapter 15. Holding the Gains …………………………………………………391
Overview …………………………………………………………….391
Approaches to Holding Gains ………………………………….391
Which Tools to Use: A General Algorithm …………………397
Data and Statistics …………………………………………………404
Operational Excellence …………………………………………..405
The Healthcare Organization of the Future ……………….407
Conclusion …………………………………………………………..408
Discussion Questions …………………………………………….408
Case Study …………………………………………………………..409
References ……………………………………………………………410

Glossary …………………………………………………………………………………….411
Index ………………………………………………………………………………………..419
About the Authors ………………………………………………………………………..437

xv

PREFACE

This book is intended to help healthcare professionals meet the challenges and
take advantage of the opportunities found in healthcare today. We believe that
the answers to many of the dilemmas faced by the US healthcare system, such
as increasing costs, inadequate access, and uneven quality, lie in organizational
operations—the nuts and bolts of healthcare delivery. The healthcare arena is
filled with opportunities for significant operational improvements. We hope that
this book encourages healthcare management students and working profession-
als to find ways to improve the management and delivery of healthcare, thereby
increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of tomorrow’s healthcare system.

Many industries outside healthcare have successfully used the programs,
techniques, and tools of operations improvement for decades. Leading health-
care organizations have now begun to employ the same tools. Although numer-
ous other operations management texts are available, few focus on healthcare
operations, and none takes an integrated approach. Students interested in
healthcare process improvement have difficulty seeing the applicability of the
science of operations management when most texts focus on widgets and
production lines rather than on patients and providers.

This book covers the basics of operations improvement and provides
an overview of the significant trends in the healthcare industry. We focus on
the strategic implementation of process improvement programs, techniques,
and tools in the healthcare environment, with its complex web of reimburse-
ment systems, physician relations, workforce challenges, and governmental
regulations. This integrated approach helps healthcare professionals gain an
understanding of strategic operations management and, more important, its
applicability to the healthcare field.

How This Book Is Organized

We have organized this book into five parts:

1. Introduction to Healthcare Operations
2. Setting Goals and Executing Strategy
3. Performance Improvement Tools, Techniques, and Programs

xvi Preface

4. Applications to Contemporary Healthcare Operations Issues
5. Putting It All Together for Operational Excellence

Although this structure is helpful for most readers, each chapter also stands
alone, and the chapters can be covered or read in any order that makes sense
for a particular course or student.

The first part of the book, Introduction to Healthcare Operations,
begins with an overview of the challenges and opportunities found in today’s
healthcare environment (chapter 1). We follow with a history of the field
of management science and operations improvement (chapter 2). Next, we
discuss two of the most influential environmental changes facing healthcare
today: evidence-based medicine and value-based purchasing, or simply value
purchasing (chapter 3).

In part II, Setting Goals and Executing Strategy, chapter 4 highlights the
importance of tying the strategic direction of the organization to operational
initiatives. This chapter outlines the use of the balanced scorecard technique
to execute and monitor these initiatives toward achieving organizational objec-
tives. Typically, strategic initiatives are large in scope, and the tools of project
management (chapter 5) are needed to successfully manage them. Indeed, the
use of project management tools can help to ensure the success of any size
project. Strategic focus and project management provide the organizational
foundation for the remainder of this book.

The next part of the book, Performance Improvement Tools, Tech-
niques, and Programs, provides an introduction to basic decision-making and
problem-solving processes and describes some of the associated tools (chapter
6). Most performance improvement initiatives (e.g., Six Sigma, Lean) follow
these same processes and make use of some or all of the tools discussed in
chapter 6.

Good decisions and effective solutions are based on facts, not intuition.
Chapter 7 provides an overview of data collection processes and analysis tech-
niques to enable fact-based decision making. Chapter 8 builds on the statistical
approaches of chapter 7 by presenting the new tools of advanced analytics and
big data.

Six Sigma, Lean, simulation, and supply chain management are specific
philosophies or techniques that can be used to improve processes and systems.
The Six Sigma methodology (chapter 9) is the latest manifestation of the use of
quality improvement tools to reduce variation and errors in a process. The Lean
methodology (chapter 10) is focused on eliminating waste in a system or process.

The fourth section of the book, Applications to Contemporary Health-
care Operations Issues, begins with an integrated approach to applying the
various tools and techniques for process improvement in the healthcare environ-
ment (chapter 11). We then focus on a special and important case of process
improvement: patient scheduling in the ambulatory setting (chapter 12).

xviiPreface

Supply chain management extends the boundaries of the hospital or
healthcare system to include both upstream suppliers and downstream custom-
ers, and this is the focus of chapter 13. The need to “bend” the healthcare
cost inflation curve downward is one of the most pressing issues in healthcare
today, and the use of operations management tools to achieve this goal is
addressed in chapter 14.

Part V, Putting It All Together for Operational Excellence, concludes
the book with a discussion of strategies for implementing and maintaining the
focus on continuous improvement in healthcare organizations (chapter 15).

Many features in this book should enhance student understanding and
learning. Most chapters begin with a vignette, called Operations Management in
Action, that offers a real-world example related to the content of that chapter.
Throughout the book, we use a fictitious but realistic organization, Vincent
Valley Hospital and Health System, to illustrate the various tools, techniques,
and programs discussed. Each chapter concludes with questions for discussion,
and parts II through IV include exercises to be solved.

We include abundant examples throughout the text of the use of various
contemporary software tools essential for effective operations management.
Readers will see notes appended to some of the exhibits, for example, that
indicate what software was used to create charts, graphs, and so on from the
data provided. Healthcare leaders and managers must be experts in the appli-
cation of these tools and stay current with the latest versions. Just as we ask
healthcare providers to stay up-to-date with the latest clinical advances, so too
must healthcare managers stay current with basic software tools.

Acknowledgments

A number of people contributed to this work. Dan McLaughlin would like to
thank his many colleagues at the University of St. Thomas Opus College of
Business. Specifically, Dr. Ernest Owens provided guidance on the project man-
agement chapter, and Dr. Michael Sheppeck assisted on the human resources
implications of operations improvement. Dean Stefanie Lenway and Associate
Dean Michael Garrison encouraged and supported this work and helped create
our new Center for Innovation in the Business of Healthcare.

Dan would also like to thank the outstanding professionals at Hennepin
County Medical Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota, who provided many of the
practical and realistic examples in this book. They continue to be invaluable
healthcare resources for all of the residents of Minnesota.

John Olson would like to thank his many colleagues at the University
of St. Thomas Opus College of Business. In addition, he would like to thank
the Minnesota Hospital Association (MHA). Attributing much of his under-
standing of healthcare analytics to working with the highly professional staff

xviii Preface

of the MHA, he wishes to acknowledge Rahul Korrane, Tanya Daniels, Mark
Sonneborn, and Julie Apold (now with Optum) as true agents for change in
the US healthcare system.

The dedicated employees of the Veterans Administration have helped
John embrace the challenges that confront healthcare today—in particular
Christine Wolohan, Lori Fox, Susan Chattin, Eric James, Denise Lingen, and
Carl (Marty) Young of the continuous improvement group, who are helping
to create an organization of excellence. John acknowledges their dedication to
serving US veterans and the amazing, high-quality service they deliver.

John and Dan also want to thank the skilled professionals of Health
Administration Press for their support, especially Janet Davis, acquisitions edi-
tor, and Joyce Dunne, who edited this third edition.

Finally, this book still contains many passages that were written by Julie
Hays and are a tribute to her skill and dedication to the field of operations
management.

Instructor Resources

This book’s Instructor Resources include PowerPoint slides; an updated
test bank; teaching notes for the end-of-chapter exercises; Excel files and
cases for selected chapters; and new case studies, for most chapters,
with accompanying teaching notes. Each of the new case studies is one to
three pages long and is suitable for one class session or an online learning
module.

For the most up-to-date information about this book and its Instructor
Resources, visit ache.org/HAP and browse for the book’s title or author
names.

This book’s Instructor Resources are available to instructors who adopt
this book for use in their course. For access information, please e-mail
[email protected]

Student Resources

Case studies, exercises, tools, and web links to resources are available at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3.

PART

INTRODUCTION TO
HEALTHCARE OPERATIONS

I

CHAPTER

3

THE CHALLENGE AND THE OPPORTUNITY

The Purpose of This Book

Excellence in healthcare derives from
four major areas of expertise: clinical
care, population health, leadership,
and operations. Although clinical
expertise, the health of a population,
and leadership are critical to an orga-
nization’s success, this book focuses
on operations—how to deliver high-
quality health services in a consistent,
efficient manner.

Many books cover opera-
tional improvement tools, and some
focus on using these tools in health-
care environments. So why have we
devoted a book to the broad topic
of healthcare operations? Because we
see a need for organizations to adopt
an integrated approach to operations
improvement that puts all the tools
in a logical context and provides a
road map for their use. An integrated
approach uses a clinical analogy: First,
find and diagnose an operations issue.
Second, apply the appropriate treat-
ment tool to solve the problem.

The field of operations research
and management science is too deep
to cover in one book. In Healthcare
Operations Management, only those
tools and techniques currently being
deployed in leading healthcare organi-
zations are covered, in part so that we
may describe them in enough detail

1
OVE RVI EW

The challenges and opportunities in today’s complex healthcare

delivery systems demand that leaders take charge of their opera-

tions. A strong operations focus can reduce costs, increase safety—for

patients, visitors, and staff alike—improve clinical outcomes, and allow

an organization to compete effectively in an aggressive marketplace.

In the recent past, success for many organizations in the US

healthcare system has been achieved by executing a few critical strate-

gies: First, attract and retain talented clinicians. Next, add new technol-

ogy and specialty care services. Finally, find new methods to maximize

the organization’s reimbursement for these services. In most organiza-

tions, new services, not ongoing operations, were the key to success.

However, that era is ending. Payer resistance to cost

increases and a surge in public reporting on the quality of health-

care are forces driving a major change in strategy. The passage of

the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010 represented a culmination

of these forces. Although portions of this law may be repealed or

changed, the general direction of health policy in the United States

has been set. To succeed in this new environment, a healthcare

enterprise must focus on making significant improvements in its

core operations.

This book is about improvement and how to get things done.

It offers an integrated, systematic approach and set of contemporary

operations improvement tools that can be used to make significant

gains in any organization. These tools have been successfully deployed

in much of the global business community for more than 40 years and

now are being used by leading healthcare delivery organizations.

This chapter outlines the purpose of the book, identifies

challenges that healthcare systems currently face, presents a systems

view of healthcare, and provides a comprehensive framework for the

use of operations tools and methods in healthcare. Finally, Vincent

Valley Hospital and Health System (VVH), the fictional healthcare

delivery system used in examples throughout the book, is described.

Healthcare Operat ions Management4

to enable students and practitioners to use them in their work. Each chap-
ter provides many references for further reading and deeper study. We also

include additional resources, case studies, exercises,
and tools on the companion website that accompanies
this book.

This book is organized so that each chapter builds on the previous one
and is cross-referenced. However, each chapter also stands alone, so a reader
interested in Six Sigma can start in chapter 9 and then move to the other
chapters in any order he wishes.

This book does not specifically explore quality in healthcare as defined
by the many agencies that have as their mission to ensure healthcare quality,
such as The Joint Commission, the National Committee for Quality Assurance,
the National Quality Forum, and some federally funded quality improvement
organizations. In particular, The Healthcare Quality Book: Vision, Strategy,
and Tools (Joshi et al. 2014) delves into this perspective in depth and may be
considered a useful companion to this book. However, the systems, tools, and
techniques discussed here are essential to completing the operational improve-
ments needed to meet the expectations of these quality assurance organizations.

The Challenge

Health spending is projected to grow 1.3 percent faster per year than the gross
domestic product (GDP) between 2015 and 2025. As a result, the health share
of GDP is expected to rise from 17.5 percent in 2014 to 20.1 percent by 2025
(CMS 2015). In addition, healthcare spending is placing increasing pressure
on the federal budget. In its expenditure report summary, the Centers for
Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS 2015) notes that “federal, state and local
governments are projected to finance 47 percent of national health spending
by 2024 (from 45 percent in 2014).”

Despite the high cost, the value delivered by the system has been ques-
tioned by many policymakers. For example, unexplained quality variations in
healthcare were estimated in 1999 to result in 44,000 to 98,000 preventable
deaths every year (IOM 1999). And those problems persist. A 2010 study of
hospitals in North Carolina showed a high rate of adverse events, unchanged
over time even though hospitals had sought to improve the safety of inpatient
care (Landrigan et al. 2010).

Clearly, the pace of quality improvement is slow. “National Healthcare
Quality Report, 2009,” published by the Agency for Healthcare Research
and Quality (AHRQ), reported: “Quality is improving at a slow pace. Of
the 33 core measures, two-thirds improved, 14 (42%) with a rate between 1%
and 5% per year and 8 (24%) with a rate greater than 5% per year. . . . The

Agency for
Healthcare
Research and
Quality (AHRQ)
A federal agency
that is part of
the Department
of Health and
Human Services.
It provides
leadership and
funding to identify
and communicate
the most effective
methods to deliver
high-quality
healthcare in the
United States.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 1 : The Chal lenge and the Oppor tunity 5

median rate of change was 2% per year. Across all 169 measures, results were
similar, although the median rate of change was slightly higher at 2.3% per
year” (AHRQ 2010).

These problems were studied in the landmark work of the Institute of
Medicine (IOM), Crossing the Quality Chasm: A New Health System for the 21st
Century. The IOM (2001) panel concluded that the knowledge to improve
patient care is available, but a gap—a chasm—separates that knowledge from
everyday practice. The panel summarized the goals of a new health system in
terms of six aims, as described in exhibit 1.1.

Although this seminal work was published more than a decade ago, its
goals still guide much of the quality improvement effort today.

Many healthcare leaders are addressing these issues by capitalizing on
proven tools employed by other industries to ensure high performance and
quality outcomes. For major change to occur in the US health system, however,
these strategies must be adopted by a broad spectrum of healthcare providers
and implemented consistently throughout the continuum of care—in ambula-
tory, inpatient, acute, and long-term care settings—to undergird population
health initiatives.

The payers for healthcare must engage with the delivery system to find
new ways to partner for improvement. In addition, patients need to assume
strong financial and self-care roles in this new system. The ACA and subsequent
health policy initiatives provide many new policies to support the achievement
of these goals.

Although not all of the IOM goals can be accomplished through opera-
tional improvements, this book provides methods and tools to actively change
the system toward accomplishing several aspects of these aims.

Institute of
Medicine (IOM)
The healthcare
arm of the
National Academy
of Sciences; an
independent,
nonprofit
organization
providing unbiased
and authoritative
advice to decision
makers and the
public.

1. Safe, avoiding injuries to patients from the care that is intended to help
them

2. Effective, providing services based on scientific knowledge to all who
could benefit, and refraining from providing services to those not likely
to benefit (avoiding underuse and overuse, respectively);

3. Patient centered, providing care that is respectful of and responsive to
individual patient preferences, needs, and values, and ensuring that
patient values guide all clinical decisions;

4. Timely, reducing wait times and harmful delays for both those who
receive and those who give care;

5. Efficient, avoiding waste of equipment, supplies, ideas, and energy; and
6. Equitable, providing care that does not vary in quality because of per-

sonal characteristics such as gender, ethnicity, geographic location, and
socioeconomic status.

EXHIBIT 1.1
Six Aims for
the US Health
System

Source: Information from IOM (2001).

Healthcare Operat ions Management6

The Opportunity

While the current US health system presents numerous challenges, opportuni-
ties for improvement are emerging as well. A number of major trends provide
hope that significant change is possible. The following trends represent this
groundswell:

• Informatics systems are maturing, and big data and analytics tools are
becoming ever more powerful.

• Automation, robots, and the Internet of Things will begin to replace
human labor in healthcare.

• Supply chains and the relationships among health plans, healthcare
systems, and individual providers are changing through mergers,
partnerships, and acquisitions.

• Primary care is being redesigned with new provider models and new
tools, such as telemedicine and mobile applications.

• Medicine itself is undergoing rapid change with the adoption of
precision medicine tools, such as pharmacogenomics, to individualize
patient treatments.

• A new emphasis on population health accountability and management
will lead to healthier environments and lifestyles.

Evidence-Based Medicine
The use of evidence-based medicine (EBM) for the delivery of healthcare in
the United States is the result of 40 years of work by some of the most progres-
sive and thoughtful practitioners in the nation. The movement has produced
an array of care guidelines, care patterns, and shared decision-making tools
for caregivers and patients.

The impact of EBM on care delivery can be powerful. Rotter and col-
leagues (2010) reviewed 27 studies worldwide including 11,938 patients and
assessed the use of clinical pathways. They found that the cost of care for patients
whose treatment was delivered using the pathways was $4,919 per admission
less than for those who did not receive pathway-centered care.

Comprehensive resources are available to healthcare organizations that
wish to emphasize EBM. For example, the National Guideline Clearinghouse
(NGC 2016) is a comprehensive database of more than 4,000 evidence-based
clinical practice guidelines and related documents. NGC is an initiative of
AHRQ, which itself is a division of the US Department of Health and Human
Services. NGC was originally created in partnership with the American Medical
Association and American Association of Health Plans, now America’s Health
Insurance Plans.

Evidence-based
medicine (EBM)
The conscientious
and judicious
use of the best
current evidence in
making decisions
about the care of
individual patients.

Chapter 1 : The Chal lenge and the Oppor tunity 7

Big Data and Analytics
Healthcare delivery has been slow to adopt information technologies, but
many organizations have now implemented electronic health record (EHR)
systems and other automated tools. Although implementation of these systems

Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM)
The Institute of Medicine has been a leading advocate for comparative effec-
tiveness research, the National Academy of Sciences’ concomitant deploy-
ment of EBM. The IOM Roundtable on Value and Science-Driven Healthcare
has set a “goal that by the year 2020, 90 percent of clinical decisions will be
supported by accurate, timely, and up-to-date clinical information and will
reflect the best available evidence” (IOM 2011, 4; emphasis in original).

To achieve this end, the IOM Roundtable recommends a sophisticated
set of processes and infrastructure, which it describes as follows (IOM 2011, 10).

Infrastructure Required for Comparative Effectiveness Research: Common

Themes

• Care that is effective and efficient stems from the integrity of the

infrastructure for learning.

• Coordinating work and ensuring standards are key components of the

evidence infrastructure.

• Learning about effectiveness must continue beyond the transition from

testing to practice.

• Timely and dynamic evidence of clinical effectiveness requires bridging

research and practice.

• Current infrastructure planning must build to future needs and

opportunities.

• Keeping pace with technological innovation compels more than a head-

to-head and time-to-time focus.

• Real-time learning depends on health information technology

investment.

• Developing and applying tools that foster real-time data analysis is an

important element.

• A trained workforce is a vital link in the chain of evidence stewardship.

• Approaches are needed that draw effectively on both public and private

capacities.

• Efficiency and effectiveness compel globalizing evidence and localizing

decisions.

In short, EBM is the conscientious and judicious use of the best cur-
rent evidence in making decisions about the care of individual patients.

Healthcare Operat ions Management8

has sometimes been organizationally painful, EHRs are now becoming mature
enough to have a substantial positive impact on operations.

In addition, data science computer engineering has evolved to provide
significant new tools in the following areas:

• Big data storage and retrieval—high volume, high velocity, and high
variety of data types

• New analytical tools for reporting and prediction
• Portable and wearable devices
• Interoperabilty of devices and databases

Chapter 8 describes a set of analytical tools to fully utilize these new resources.

Active and Engaged Consumers
Consumers are assuming new roles in their own care through the use of health
education and information and by partnering effectively with their healthcare
providers. Personal maintenance of wellness though a healthy lifestyle is one
essential component. Understanding one’s disease and treatment options and
having an awareness of the cost of care are also important responsibilities of
the consumer.

Patients are becoming good consumers of healthcare by finding and
considering price information when selecting providers and treatments. Many
employers now offer high-deductible health plans with accompanying health
savings accounts (HSAs). This type of consumer-directed healthcare is likely
to grow and increase pressure on providers to deliver cost-effective, customer-
sensitive, high-quality care. In addition, the ACA provides new tools for employ-
ers to motivate their employees financially to engage in healthy lifestyles.

The healthcare delivery system of the future will support and empower
active, informed consumers.

A Systems Look at Healthcare
The Clinical System
To participate in the improvement of healthcare operations, healthcare leaders
must understand the series of interconnected systems that influence the delivery
of clinical care (exhibit 1.2).

In the patient care microsystem, the healthcare professional provides
hands-on care to the patient. Elements of the clinical microsystem include

• the team of health professionals who provide clinical care to the patient,
• the tools that the team has at its disposal to diagnose and treat the

patient (e.g., imaging capabilities, laboratory tests, drugs), and

Health savings
account (HSA)
A personal
monetary account
that can only be
used for healthcare
expenses. The
funds are not
taxed, and the
balance can be
rolled over from
year to year. HSAs
are normally
used with high-
deductible health
insurance plans.

Consumer-directed
healthcare
In general,
the consumer
(patient) is well
informed about
healthcare prices
and quality and
makes personal
buying decisions
on the basis of
this information.
The health
savings account
is frequently
included as a key
component of
consumer-directed
healthcare.

Patient care
microsystem
The level of
healthcare
delivery that
includes providers,
technology,
and treatment
processes.

Chapter 1 : The Chal lenge and the Oppor tunity 9

• the logic for determining the appropriate treatments and the processes
to deliver that care.

Because common conditions (e.g., hypertension) affect a large number
of patients, clinical research has been conducted to determine the most effec-
tive ways to treat these patients. Therefore, in many cases, the organization
and functioning of the microsystem can be optimized. Process improvements
can be made at this level to ensure that the most effective, least costly care is
delivered. In addition, the use of EBM guidelines can help ensure that the
patient receives the correct treatment at the correct time.

The organizational infrastructure also influences the effective delivery
of care to the patient. Ensuring that providers have the correct tools and skills
is an important element of infrastructure.

The EHR is one of the most important advances in the clinical micro-
system for both process improvement and the wider adoption of EBM.

Another key component of infrastructure is the leadership displayed by
senior staff. Without leadership, progress and change do not occur.

Finally, the environment strongly influences the delivery of care. Key
environmental factors include market competition, government regulation,
demographics, and payer policies. An organization’s strategy is frequently influ-
enced by such factors (e.g., a new regulation from Medicare, a new competitor).

Many of the systems concepts regarding healthcare delivery were ini-
tially developed by Avedis Donabedian. These fundamental contributions are
discussed in depth in chapter 2.

Organization
Level C

Microsystem
Level B

Patient
Level A

Environment
Level D

EXHIBIT 1.2
A Systems View
of Healthcare

Source: Ransom, Joshi, and Nash (2005). Based on Ferlie, E., and S. M. Shortell. 2001. “Improving
the Quality of Healthcare in the United Kingdom and the United States: A Framework for Change.”
Milbank Quarterly 79 (2): 281–316.

Healthcare Operat ions Management10

System Stability and Change
Elements in each layer of this system interact. Peter Senge (1990) provides a
useful theory for understanding the interaction of elements in a complex system
such as healthcare. In his model, the structure of a system is the primary mecha-
nism for producing an outcome. For example, the presence of an organized
structure of facilities, trained professionals, supplies, equipment, and EBM care
guidelines leads to a high probability of producing an expected clinical outcome.

No system is ever completely stable. Each system’s performance is modi-
fied and controlled by feedback (exhibit 1.3). Senge (1990, 75) defines feedback
as “any reciprocal flow of influence. In systems thinking it is an axiom that every
influence is both cause and effect.” As shown in exhibit 1.3, increased salaries
provide an incentive for employees to achieve improvement in performance
level. This improved performance leads to enhanced financial performance
and profitability for the organization, and increased profits provide additional
funds for higher salaries, and the cycle continues. Another frequent example in
healthcare delivery is patient lab results that directly influence the medication

+

+

+

Employee
motivation

Salaries

Financial
performance,
profit

Add or
reduce staff

Actual
staffing
level

Compare actual to
needed staff based
on patient demand

EXHIBIT 1.3
Systems with

Reinforcing
and Balancing

Feedback

Chapter 1 : The Chal lenge and the Oppor tunity 11

ordered by a physician. A third example is a financial report that shows an
over-expenditure in one category that prompts a manager to reduce spending
to meet budget goals.

A more complete definition of a feedback-driven operational system
includes an operational process, a sensor that monitors process output, a feed-
back loop, and a control that modifies how the process operates.

Feedback can be either reinforcing or balancing. Reinforcing feedback
prompts change that builds on itself and amplifies the outcome of a process,
taking the process further and further from its starting point. The effect of rein-
forcing feedback can be either positive or negative. For example, a reinforcing
change of positive financial results for an organization could lead to increases
in salaries, which would then lead to even better financial performance because
the employees are highly motivated. In contrast, a poor supervisor could cause
employee turnover, possibly resulting in short staffing and even more turnover.

Balancing feedback prompts change that seeks stability. A balancing
feedback loop attempts to return the system to its starting point. The human
body provides a good example of a complex system that has many balancing
feedback mechanisms. For example, an overheated body prompts perspiration
until the body is cooled through evaporation. The clinical term for this type
of balance is homeostasis. A treatment process that controls drug dosing via
real-time monitoring of the patient’s physiological responses is an example of
balancing feedback. Inpatient unit staffing levels that determine where in a
hospital patients are admitted is another. All of these feedback mechanisms are
designed to maintain balance in the system.

A confounding problem with feedback is delay. Delays occur when
interruptions arise between actions and consequences. In the midst of delays,
systems tend to “overshoot” and thus perform poorly. For example, an emer-
gency department might experience a surge in patients and call in additional
staff. When the surge subsides, the added staff stay on shift but are no longer
needed, and unnecessary expense is incurred.

As healthcare leaders focus on improving their operations, they must
understand the systems in which change resides. Every change will be resisted
and reinforced by feedback mechanisms, many of which are not clearly visible.
Taking a broad systems view can improve the effectiveness of change.

Many subsystems in the total healthcare system are interconnected.
These connections have feedback mechanisms that either reinforce or balance
the subsystem’s performance. Exhibit 1.4 shows a simple connection that origi-
nates in the environmental segment of the total health system. Each process
has both reinforcing and balancing feedback.

This general systems model can be converted to a more quantitative
system dynamics model, which is useful as part of a predictive analytics system.
This concept is addressed in more depth in chapter 8.

Healthcare Operat ions Management12

An Integrating Framework for Operations Management in
Healthcare

The five-part framework of this book (illustrated in exhibit 1.5) reflects our view
that effective operations management in healthcare consists of highly focused
strategy execution and organizational change accompanied by the disciplined
use of analytical tools, techniques, and programs. An organization needs to
understand the environment, develop a strategy, and implement a system to
effectively deploy this strategy. At the same time, the organization must become
adept at using all the tools of operations improvement contained in this book.
These improvement tools can then be combined to attack the fundamental
challenges of operating a complex healthcare delivery organization.

Introduction to Healthcare Operations
The introductory chapters provide an overview of the significant environmental
trends healthcare delivery organizations face. Annual updates to industrywide trends
can be found in Futurescan: Healthcare Trends and Implications 2016–2021 (SHSMD
and ACHE 2016). Progressive organizations tend to review these publications care-
fully, as they can use this information in response to external forces by identifying
either new strategies or current operating problems that must be addressed.

Business has aggressively used operations improvement tools for the
past 40 years, but the field of operations science actually began many centuries
ago. Chapter 2 provides a brief history.

Healthcare operations are increasingly driven by the effects of EBM and
pay for performance; chapter 3 offers an overview of these trends and how
organizations can effect change to meet current challenges and opportunities.

Setting Goals and Executing Strategy
A key component of effective operations is the ability to move strategy to
action. Chapter 4 shows how the use of the balanced scorecard and strategy
maps can help accomplish this aim. Change in all organizations is challenging,
and the formal methods of project management (chapter 5) can deliver effec-
tive, lasting improvements in an organization’s operations.

Payers want
to reduce
costs for
chemotherapy

New payment
method for
chemotherapy
is created

Environment Organization Clinical microsystem Patient

Changes are made in
care processes and
support systems to
maintain quality
while reducing costs

Chemotherapy
treatment needs to
be more efficient to
meet payment
levels

EXHIBIT 1.4
Linkages Within

the Healthcare
System:

Chemotherapy

Chapter 1 : The Chal lenge and the Oppor tunity 13

Performance Improvement Tools, Techniques, and Programs
Once an organization has its strategy implementation and change management
processes in place, it needs to select the correct tools, techniques, and programs
to analyze current operations and develop effective adjustments.

Chapter 6 outlines the basic steps of problem solving, which begins
by framing the question or problem and continues through data collection
and analyses to enable effective decision making. Chapter 7 introduces the
building blocks for many of the advanced tools used later in the book. (This
chapter may serve as a review or reference for readers who already have good
statistical skills.)

Closely related to statistical thinking is the emerging science of analyt-
ics. With powerful new software tools and big data repositories, the ability to
understand and predict organizational performance is significantly enhanced.
Chapter 8 is new to this edition and presents several tools that have become
available to healthcare analysts and leaders since publication of the second
edition.

Some projects require a focus on process improvement. Six Sigma tools
(chapter 9) can be used to reduce variability in the outcome of a process. Lean
tools (chapter 10) help eliminate waste and increase speed.

Applications to Contemporary Healthcare Operations Issues
This part of the book demonstrates how these concepts can be applied to
some of today’s fundamental healthcare challenges. Process improvement
techniques are now widely deployed in many organizations to significantly
improve performance; chapter 11 reviews the tools of process improvement
and demonstrates their use in improving patient flow.

Scheduling and capacity management continue to be major concerns for
most healthcare delivery organizations, particularly with the advent of advanced-
access scheduling, a concept promoted by the Institute for Healthcare Improve-
ment and discussed in chapter 12. Specifically, the chapter demonstrates how

Setting goals
and executing
strategy

Performance
improvement
tools,
techniques, and
programs

Fundamental
healthcare
operations
issues

High performance

EXHIBIT 1.5
Framework
for Effective
Operations
Management in
Healthcare

Healthcare Operat ions Management14

simulation can be used to optimize scheduling. Chapter 13 explores the optimal
methods for acquiring supplies and maintaining appropriate inventory levels.
Chapter 14 outlines a systems approach to improving financial results, with a
special emphasis on cost reduction—one of today’s most important challenges.

Putting It All Together for Operational Excellence
In the end, any operations improvement will fail unless steps are taken to
maintain the gains; chapter 15 contains the necessary tools to do so. The
chapter also provides a detailed algorithm that helps practitioners select the
appropriate tools, methods, and techniques to effect significant operational
improvements. It demonstrates how our fictionalized case study healthcare
system, Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System (VVH), uses all the tools
presented in the book to achieve operational excellence. In this way, a future
is envisioned in which many of the tools and methods contained in the book
are widely deployed in the US healthcare system.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System
Woven throughout the chapters are examples featuring VVH, a fictitious but
realistic health system. The companion website contains an expansive descrip-
tion of VVH; here we provide some essential details.

VVH is located in a midwestern city with a population of 1.5 million.
The health system employs 5,000 staff members, oper-
ates 350 inpatient beds, and has a medical staff of 450
physicians. It operates nine clinics staffed by physicians
who are employees of the system. VVH competes with

two major hospitals and an independent ambulatory surgery center that was
formed by several surgeons from all three hospitals.

The VVH brand includes an accountable care organization to reflect
the increased emphasis it has placed on population health in its community.
The organization also is working to create a Medicare Advantage plan. It has
significantly restructured its primary care delivery segment and has contracted
with a variety of retail clinics to supplement the traditional office-based primary
care physicians with whom it is affiliated. It recently added an online diagnosis
and treatment service, with 24-hour telehealth now available.

Three major health plans provide most of the private payment to VVH,
which, along with the state Medicaid system, have recently begun a pay-for-
performance reimbursement initiative. VVH has a strong balance sheet and a
profit margin of approximately 2 percent, but its senior leaders feel the orga-
nization is financially challenged.

The board of VVH includes many local industry leaders, who have asked
the chief executive to focus on using the operational techniques that have led
them to succeed in their own businesses.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 1 : The Chal lenge and the Oppor tunity 15

Conclusion

This book is an overview of operations management approaches and tools. The
reader is expected to understand all the concepts in the book (and in current use in
the field) and be able to apply, at the basic level, most of the tools, techniques, and
programs presented. The reader is not expected to execute at the more advanced
(e.g., Six Sigma black belt, project management professional) level. However,
this book prepares readers to work effectively with knowledgeable professionals
and, most important, enables them to direct the work of those professionals.

Final Note About the Third Edition
Prior editions of this book included a chapter on simulation. Although simula-
tion is a valuable tool in many industries, it is not used widely in healthcare, so
the chapter was eliminated, with some of the principles of simulation moved to
chapter 11. We hope the industry embraces this tool in the future—and then
we will bring this chapter back.

Discussion Questions

1. Provide three examples of system improvements at the boundaries of
the healthcare subsystems (patient, microsystem, organization, and
environment).

2. Identify three systems in a healthcare organization (at any level) that
have reinforcing feedback.

3. Identify three systems in a healthcare organization (at any level) that
have balancing feedback.

4. Identify three systems in a healthcare organization (at any level) in
which feedback delays affect the performance of the system.

References

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). 2010. “National Healthcare Quality
Report, 2009: Key Themes and Highlights from the National Healthcare Qual-
ity Report.” Last reviewed March. http://archive.ahrq.gov/research/findings/
nhqrdr/nhqr09/Key.html.

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). 2015. “National Health Expenditure
Projections 2014-2025 Forecast Summary.” Published July 14. www.cms.gov/
Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/National
HealthExpendData/Downloads/Proj2015.pdf.

Healthcare Operat ions Management16

Institute of Medicine (IOM). 2011. Learning What Works: Infrastructure Required for
Comparative Effectiveness Research. Workshop Summary. Accessed August 8, 2016.
www.nap.edu/catalog/12214/learning-what-works-infrastructure-required-for-
comparative-effectiveness-research-workshop.

———. 2001. Crossing the Quality Chasm: A New Health System for the 21st Century. Wash-
ington, DC: National Academies Press.

———. 1999. To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System. Washington, DC: National
Academies Press.

Joshi, M. S., E. R. Ransom, D. B. Nash, and S. B. Ransom. 2014. The Healthcare Quality
Book: Vision, Strategy and Tools, 3rd edition. Chicago: Health Administration Press.

Landrigan, C. P., G. J. Parry, C. B. Bones, A. D. Hackbarth, D. A. Goldmann, and P. J.
Sharek. 2010. “Temporal Trends in Rates of Patient Harm Resulting from Medical
Care.” New England Journal of Medicine 363 (22): 2124–34.

National Guideline Clearinghouse (NGC). 2016. Home page. Accessed August 8. https://
guideline.gov/.

Ransom, S. B., M. S. Joshi, and D. B. Nash (eds.). 2005. The Healthcare Quality Book: Vision,
Strategy, and Tools. Chicago: Health Administration Press.

Rotter, T., L. Kinsman, E. L. James, A. Machotta, H. Gothe, J. Willis, P. Snow, and J. Kugler.
2010. “Clinical Pathways: Effects on Professional Practice, Patient Outcomes, Length
of Stay and Hospital Costs.” Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 3: CD006632.

Senge, P. M. 1990. The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization.
New York: Doubleday.

Society for Healthcare Strategy and Market Development (SHSMD) and American Col-
lege of Healthcare Executives (ACHE). 2016. Futurescan: Healthcare Trends and
Implications 2016–2021. Chicago: SHSMD and Health Administration Press.

CHAPTER

17

2HISTORY OF PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT

Operations Management in Action

During the Crimean War, a conflict that waged from
October 1853 to February 1856 pitting Russia against
Britain, France, and Ottoman Turkey, reports of ter-
rible conditions in military hospitals began to emerge
that alarmed British citizens. In response to the out-
cry, the British government commissioned Florence
Nightingale, now widely recognized as a pioneer in
nursing practice, to oversee the introduction of nurses
to military hospitals and to improve conditions in the
hospitals. When Nightingale arrived in Scutari, Turkey,
she found the military hospital there overcrowded and
filthy. She instituted many changes to improve the
sanitary conditions in the hospital, and many lives
were saved as a result of these reforms.

Nightingale was among the first healthcare
professionals to collect, tabulate, interpret, and graph-
ically display data related to the impact of process
changes on care outcomes—what is known today as
evidence-based medicine. To quantify the overcrowd-
ing problem, she compared the average amount of
space per patient in London hospitals—1,600 square
feet—to the space in Scutari—about 400 square feet.
She developed a standardized document, the Model
Hospital Statistical Form, to enable the collection of
consistent data for analysis and comparison. In Feb-
ruary 1855, the patient mortality rate at the military
hospital in Scutari was 42 percent. As a result of Night-
ingale’s changes, by June of that year the mortality
rate had decreased to 2.2 percent.

To present these data in a persuasive manner, she developed a new type of
graphic display, the polar area diagram. The diagram was a pie chart with a monthly
slice for mortality numbers and their causes displayed in a different color. A quick
glance at the diagram “showed that except for the bloodiest month in the siege of
Sevastopol, battle deaths take up a very small portion of each slice,” notes Lienhard

OVE RVI EW

This chapter provides the background and historical

context for performance improvement—which is not

a new concept. Several of the tools, techniques, and

philosophies outlined in this text are based in past

efforts. Although the terminology has changed, many

of the core concepts remain the same.

The major topics in this chapter include the

following:

• Background for understanding operations

management

• Systems thinking and knowledge-based

management

• Scientific management

• Project management

• Introduction to quality, and quality experts of

note

• Philosophies of performance improvement,

including Six Sigma, Lean, and others

• Introduction to supply chain management

• Introduction to big data and analytics

Although these tools and techniques have been

adapted for contemporary healthcare, their roots

are in the past, and an understanding of this history

(exhibit 2.1) can enable organizations to move success-

fully into the future.

Healthcare Operat ions Management18

(2016). It revealed that “The Russians were a minor enemy. The real enemies were
cholera, typhus, and dysentery. Once the military looked at that eloquent graph,
the modern army hospital system was inevitable” (Lienhard 2016).

After the war, Nightingale used the data she had collected to demonstrate
that the mortality rate in Scutari following her reforms was significantly lower than
in other British military hospitals. Although the British military hierarchy was resis-
tant to her changes, the data were convincing and resulted in reforms to military
hospitals and the establishment of the Royal Commission on the Health of the Army.

Were she alive today, Nightingale would recognize many of the philosophies,
tools, and techniques outlined in this text as essentially the same as those she
employed to achieve lasting reform in hospitals throughout the world.

Sources: Information from Cohen (1984), Lienhard (2016), Neuhauser (2003), and Nightingale (1858).

Background

The healthcare industry faces many challenges. The costs of care and level of
services delivered are increasing; even as the population ages, we are able to pro-
long lives to an ever greater extent as technology advances and expertise grows.
The expectation of quality care with zero defects, or failures in care, is being
pursued by government and other stakeholders, driving the need for healthcare
providers to produce more of a high-quality product or service at a reduced
cost. This need can only be met through improved utilization of resources.

Specifically, providers must offer their services more effectively and effi-
ciently than at any time in the past by optimizing their use of limited financial
assets, employees and staff, machines and facilities, and time.

Enter operations management.
Operations management is the design, implementation, and improve-

ment of the processes and systems that create and deliver the organization’s
products and services. Operations managers plan and control delivery processes
and systems within the organization.

Forward-thinking healthcare leaders and professionals have realized
that the theories, tools, and techniques of operations management, if properly
applied, can enable their organizations to become efficient and effective care
delivery environments. However, for many of the aims identified by the US
healthcare system to be achieved, essentially all healthcare providers must adopt
these tools and techniques, many of which have enabled other service indus-
tries and manufacturing sectors to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The
operations management information presented in this book should similarly
enable hospitals and other healthcare organizations to design systems, processes,
products, and services that meet the needs of their stakeholders. Importantly,
it should also allow continuous improvement in these systems and services to
keep pace with the quickly changing healthcare landscape.

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 19

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Healthcare Operat ions Management20

To improve systems and processes, however, one must first know the
system or process and its desired inputs and outputs.

Knowledge-Based Management

This book takes a systems view of service provision and delivery, as illustrated
in exhibit 2.2, and focuses on knowledge-based management (KBM)—using
data and information toward basing management decisions on facts rather than
on feelings or intuition—to frame that view. The improvement in computer
systems and new analytical approaches support the increased use of KBM,
especially in terms of building a knowledge hierarchy.

The knowledge hierarchy relates to the learning that ultimately under-
pins KBM. As illustrated in exhibit 2.3, the knowledge hierarchy consists of
the following five categories (Zeleny 1987):

Knowledge
hierarchy
The foundation of
knowledge-based
management,
composed of five
categories of
learning: data,
information,
knowledge,
understanding,
and wisdom.

Feedback

Transformation
process

Labor
Material
Machines
Management
Capital

Goods or
services

TUPTUOTUPNI

EXHIBIT 2.2
Systems View

of the Provision
of Services for

Purposes of
This Book

Im
po

rt
an

ce

Understanding

Wisdom

morals

principles

patterns

relationships

Knowledge

Learning

Information

Data

EXHIBIT 2.3
Knowledge

Hierarchy

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 21

1. Data. Symbols or raw numbers that simply exist; they have no structure
or organization. Entities collect data with their computer systems;
individuals collect data through their experiences. At this stage of the
hierarchy, one can presume to know nothing because raw data alone are
not adequate for decision making.

2. Information. Data that are organized or processed to have meaning.
Information can be useful, but it is not necessarily useful. It can answer
such questions as who, what, where, and when—in other words, know
what.

3. Knowledge. Information that is deliberately useful. Knowledge enables
decision making—know how.

4. Understanding. A mental frame that allows use of what is known and
enables the development of new knowledge. Understanding represents
the difference between learning and memorizing—know why.

5. Wisdom. A high-level stage that adds moral and ethical views to
understanding. Wisdom answers questions to which there is no known
correct answer and, in some cases, to which there will never be a known
correct answer—know right.

A simple example may help explain this hierarchy. Say your height is
67 inches and your weight is 175 pounds (data). You have a body mass index
(BMI) of 26.7 (information). A healthy BMI is 18.5 to 25.5 (knowledge).
Your BMI is high, and to be healthy you should lower it (understanding). You
begin a diet and exercise program and lower your BMI (wisdom).

Finnie (1997, 24) summarizes the relationships in the hierarchy and
notes our tendency to focus on its less important levels:

We talk about the accumulation of information, but we fail to distinguish between

data, information, knowledge, understanding, and wisdom. An ounce of information

is worth a pound of data, an ounce of knowledge is worth a pound of information,

an ounce of understanding is worth a pound of knowledge, an ounce of wisdom is

worth a pound of understanding. In the past, our focus has been inversely related to

importance. We have focused mainly on data and information, a little bit on knowl-

edge, nothing on understanding, and virtually less than nothing on wisdom.

Knowledge Through the Ages
The roots of the knowledge hierarchy can be traced to eighteenth-century
philosopher Immanuel Kant, much of whose work attempted to address the
questions of what and how we can know.

The two major philosophical movements that significantly influenced
Kant were empiricism and rationalism (McCormick 2006). The empiricists,
most notably John Locke, argued that human knowledge originates in one’s

Healthcare Operat ions Management22

experiences. According to Locke, the mind is a blank slate that fills with ideas
through its interaction with the world. The rationalists, including Descartes
and Galileo, argued that the world is knowable through an analysis of ideas
and logical reasoning. Both the empiricists and the rationalists viewed the mind
as passive, either by receiving ideas onto a blank slate or because it possesses
innate ideas that can be logically analyzed.

Kant joined these philosophical ideologies by arguing that experience leads
to knowing only if the mind provides a structure for those experiences. Although
the idea that the rational mind plays a role in defining reality is now common,
in Kant’s time this was a major insight into what and how we know. Knowledge
does not flow from our experiences alone, nor only from our ability to reason;
rather, knowledge flows from our ability to apply reasoning to our experiences.

Relating Kant’s philosophy to the knowledge hierarchy, data are our
experiences, information is obtained through logical reasoning, and knowledge
is obtained when we apply structured reasoning to data to acquire knowledge
(Ressler and Ahrens 2006).

The intent of this text is to enable readers to gain knowledge. We discuss
tools and techniques that allow the application of logical reasoning to data
toward obtaining knowledge and using it to make decisions. This knowledge
and understanding should help the reader provide healthcare in an efficient
and effective manner.

History of Scientific Management

Frederick Taylor (whose work is covered in more detail later in the chapter)
originated the term scientific management in The Principles of Scientific Man-
agement (Taylor 1911). Scientific management methods called for eliminating
the old rule-of-thumb, individual way of performing work and, through study
and optimization of the work, replacing the varied methods with the one “best”
way of performing the work to improve productivity and efficiency. Today, the
term scientific management has been replaced with operations management,
but the concept is similar: Study the process or system and determine ways to
optimize it to achieve improved efficiency and effectiveness.

Mass Production
The Industrial Revolution and mass production set the stage for much of Tay-
lor’s work. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, individual craftsmen performed
all tasks necessary to produce a good using their own tools and procedures.
In the eighteenth century, Adam Smith advocated for the division of labor—
increasing work efficiency through specialization. To support a division of
labor, a large number of workers are brought together, and each performs a
specific task related to the production of a good. Thus, the factory system of

Scientific
management
A disciplined
approach to
studying a system
or process and
then using data
to optimize it to
achieve improved
efficiency and
effectiveness.

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 23

mass production was born, and Henry Ford’s assembly line eventually emerged,
making industrial conditions ripe for Taylor to introduce scientific management.

Mass production allows for significant economies of scale, as predicted
by Smith. Before Ford set up his moving assembly line, each car chassis was
assembled by a single worker and took about 12½ hours to produce. After the
introduction of the assembly line, this time was reduced to 93 minutes (Bellis
2006). The standardization of products and work ushered in by the assembly
line not only led to a reduction in the time needed to produce cars but also
significantly reduced the costs of production. The selling price of the Model
T fell from $1,000 to $360 between 1908 and 1916 (Simkin 2005), allowing
Ford to capture a large portion of the market.

Although Ford is commonly credited with introducing the moving
assembly line and mass production in modern times, both processes were
in practice several hundred years earlier. The Venetian Arsenal of the 1500s
employed 16,000 people and produced nearly one ship every day (NationMas-
ter.com 2004). Ships were mass produced using premanufactured, standardized
parts on a floating assembly line (Schmenner 2001).

One of the first examples of mass production in the healthcare industry
is Shouldice Hospital (Heskett 2003). Much like Ford, who is commonly cited
as saying people could have the Model T in any color, “so long as it’s black,”
Shouldice, founded in 1945 in Toronto, performs just one type of surgery—
routine hernia operations—and it continues to thrive with its unique approach
(Heskett 2003).

Furthermore, evidence is growing in healthcare that level of experience in
treating specific illnesses and conditions affects the outcome of that care. Higher
volumes of cases often result in better outcomes (Halm, Lee, and Chassin 2002).
Specifically, the additional practice associated with higher volume results in bet-
ter outcomes. The idea of “practice makes perfect,” or learning-curve effects,
has led organizations such as the Leapfrog Group (made up of organizations
that provide healthcare benefits) to list patient volume among its criteria for
quality (Halm, Lee, and Chassin 2002). The Agency for Healthcare Research
and Quality (AHRQ) report Localizing Care to High-Volume Centers devotes an
entire chapter to this issue and its impact on medical practice (Auerbach 2001).

Frederick Taylor
Taylor began his work when mass production and the factory system were in
their infancy. He believed that US industry was “wasting” human effort and
that, as a result, national efficiency (now called productivity) was significantly
lower than it could be. The introduction to The Principles of Scientific Manage-
ment (Taylor 1911) illustrates his intent:

[O]ur larger wastes of human effort, which go on every day through such of our acts

as are blundering, ill-directed, or inefficient, and which Mr. [Theodore] Roosevelt

Healthcare Operat ions Management24

refers to as a lack of “national efficiency,” are less visible, less tangible, and are but

vaguely appreciated. . . . This paper has been written:

First. To point out, through a series of simple illustrations, the great loss which the

whole country is suffering through inefficiency in almost all of our daily acts.

Second. To try to convince the reader that the remedy for this inefficiency lies in

systematic management, rather than in searching for some unusual or extraordinary

man [referring to the so-called great man theory prevalent at the time].

Third. To prove that the best management is a true science, resting upon clearly

defined laws, rules, and principles, as a foundation. And further to show that the

fundamental principles of scientific management are applicable to all kinds of human

activities, from our simplest individual acts to the work of our great corporations,

which call for the most elaborate cooperation. And, briefly, through a series of illus-

trations, to convince the reader that whenever these principles are correctly applied,

results must follow which are truly astounding.

Note that Taylor specifically mentions systems management as opposed
to the individual; this is a common theme that we revisit throughout this book.
Rather than focusing on individuals as the cause of problems and the source
of solutions, emphasis is placed on systems and their optimization.

Taylor believed that much waste was the result of what he called “sol-
diering,” which today might be thought of as slacking. Further, he believed
that the underlying causes of soldiering were as follows (Taylor 1911):

First. The fallacy, which has from time immemorial been almost universal among

workmen, that a material increase in the output of each man or each machine in

the trade would result in the end in throwing a large number of men out of work.

Second. The defective systems of management which are in common use, and which

make it necessary for each workman to soldier, or work slowly, in order that he may

protect his own best interests.

Third. The inefficient rule-of-thumb methods, which are still almost universal in all

trades, and in practicing which our workmen waste a large part of their effort.

To eliminate soldiering, Taylor proposed instituting incentive schemes.
While at Midvale Steel Company, he used time studies to set daily production
quotas. Incentives were paid to those workers who reached their daily goals,
and those who did not reach their goals were paid significantly less. Productiv-
ity at Midvale doubled. Not surprisingly, Taylor’s ideas produced considerable
backlash. The resistance to increasingly popular pay-for-performance programs
in healthcare today is analogous to that experienced by Taylor.

Taylor believed that “one best way” existed to perform any task and
that careful study and analysis would lead to the discovery of that way. For

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 25

example, while at Bethlehem Steel Corporation, he studied the shoveling of
coal. Using time studies and a careful analysis of how the work was performed,
he determined that the optimal amount of coal per shovel load was 21 pounds.
Taylor then developed shovels that would hold exactly 21 pounds for each
type of coal; workers had previously supplied their own shovels (NetMBA.com
2005). He also determined the ideal work rate and rest periods to ensure that
workers could shovel all day without fatigue. As a result of Taylor’s improved
methods, Bethlehem Steel was able to reduce the number of workers shoveling
coal from 500 to 140 (Nelson 1980).

Taylor’s four principles of scientific management are to

1. develop and standardize work methods on the basis of scientific study,
and use these to replace individual rule-of-thumb methods;

2. select, train, and develop workers rather than allowing them to choose
their own tasks and train themselves;

3. develop a spirit of cooperation between management and workers
to ensure that the scientifically developed work methods are both
sustainable and implemented on a continuing basis; and

4. divide work between management and workers so that each has an
equal share, where management plans the work and workers perform
the work.

Although some would be problematic today—particularly the notion
that workers are “machinelike” and motivated solely by money—many of
Taylor’s ideas can be seen in the foundations of newer initiatives such as Six
Sigma and Lean, two important quality improvement approaches discussed in
depth later in the book.

Frank and Lillian Gilbreth
The Gilbreths were contemporaries of Frederick Taylor. Frank, who worked
in the construction industry, noticed that no two bricklayers performed their
tasks the same way. He believed that bricklaying could be standardized and the
one best way determined. He studied the work of bricklaying and analyzed the
workers’ motions, finding much unnecessary stooping, walking, and reaching.
He eliminated these motions by developing an adjustable scaffold designed
to hold both bricks and mortar (Taylor 1911). As a result of this and other
improvements, Frank Gilbreth reduced the number of motions in bricklaying
from 18 to 5 (International Work Simplification Institute 1968) and raised out-
put from 1,000 to 2,700 bricks a day (Perkins 1997). He applied what he had
learned from his bricklaying experiments to other industries and types of work.

In his study of surgical operations, Frank Gilbreth found that doctors
spent more time searching for instruments than performing the surgery. He

Healthcare Operat ions Management26

developed a technique still seen in operating rooms today: When the doctor
needs an instrument, he extends his hand, palm up, and asks for the instru-
ment, which is then placed in his hand. This technique eliminates searching
for the instrument and allows the doctor to stay focused on the surgical area,
thus reducing surgical time (Perkins 1997).

Frank and Lillian Gilbreth may be more familiarly known as the parents
in the book Cheaper by the Dozen (Gilbreth and Carey 1948) (which was made
into a movie by the same title in 1950 and remade in 2003). The Gilbreths
incorporated many of their time-saving ideas in their family as well. For example,
they bought just one type of sock for all 12 of their children, thus eliminating
time-consuming sorting.

Scientific Management Today
Scientific management fell out of favor during the Depression, partly because
of the sense that it dehumanized employees, but mainly because of a general
belief in society that productivity improvements resulted in downsizing and
increased unemployment. Not until World War II did scientific management,
renamed operations research, see a resurgence of interest.

In healthcare today, standardized methods and procedures are used to
reduce costs and increase the quality of outcomes. Specialized equipment has
been developed to speed procedures and reduce labor costs. In a sense, we are
still searching for the one best way. However, we must heed the lessons of the
past. If the tools of operations management are perceived to be dehumanizing
or to result in downsizing by healthcare organizations, their implementation
will meet significant resistance.

Project Management

The discipline of project management began with the development of the Gantt
chart in the early twentieth century. Henry Gantt worked closely with Frederick
Taylor at Midvale Steel and in Navy ship construction during World War I.
From this work, he developed bar graphs to illustrate the duration of project
tasks and display scheduled and actual progress. These Gantt charts were used
to help manage large projects, including construction of the Hoover Dam,
and proved to be such a powerful tool that they are commonly used today.

Although Gantt charts were originally adopted to track large projects, they
are not ideal for very large, complicated projects because they do not explicitly
show precedence relationships, that is, what tasks need to be completed before
other tasks can start. In the 1950s, two mathematic project scheduling techniques
were developed: the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) and
the critical path method (CPM). Both techniques begin by developing a project
network showing the precedence relationships among tasks and task duration.

Program
evaluation and
review technique
(PERT)
A graphic
technique to
link and analyze
all tasks within
a project; the
resulting graph
helps optimize the
project’s schedule.

Critical path
method (CPM)
The critical path
is the longest
course through
a graph of linked
tasks in a project.
The critical path
method is used to
reduce the total
time of a project
by decreasing the
duration of tasks
on the critical path.

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 27

PERT was developed by the US Navy to address the desire to acceler-
ate the Polaris missile program. This “need for speed” was precipitated by
the Soviet launch of Sputnik, the first space satellite. PERT uses a probability
distribution (the beta distribution), rather than a point estimate, for the dura-
tion of each project task. The probability of completing the entire project in a
given amount of time can then be determined. This technique is most useful
for estimating project completion time when task times are uncertain and for
evaluating risks to project completion prior to the start of a project.

The CPM technique was developed at the same time as PERT by the
DuPont and Remington Rand corporations to manage plant maintenance
projects. CPM uses the project network and point estimates of task duration
times to determine the critical path through the network, or the sequence of
activities that will take the longest to complete. If any one of the activities on
the critical path is delayed, the entire project is delayed. This technique is most
useful when task times can be estimated with certainty and is typically used in
project management and control.

Although both of these techniques are powerful analytical tools for
planning, implementing, controlling, and evaluating a project plan, perform-
ing the required calculations by hand is tedious, and use of the techniques
was not initially widespread. With the advent of commercially available project
management software for personal computers in the late 1960s, use of PERT
and CPM increased considerably. Today, numerous project management soft-
ware packages are commercially available. Microsoft Project, for instance, can
perform network analysis on the basis of either PERT or CPM; the default is
CPM, making it the more commonly used technique.

Projects are an integral part of many of the process improvement ini-
tiatives found in the healthcare industry. Project management and its tools
are needed to ensure that projects related to quality, Lean, and supply chain
management are completed in the most effective and timely manner possible.

Introduction to Quality

Any discussion of quality in industry—including healthcare—should begin
with those recognized as originators in quality improvement methodology.
Here we introduce the individuals credited with developing various quality
approaches, and later in the section we discuss some prevailing quality improve-
ment processes. This introductory discussion establishes the background for
the in-depth treatment of the concepts throughout the book.

Walter Shewhart
If W. Edwards Deming and Joseph Juran (profiled in later subsections) are
considered the fathers of the quality movement, Walter Shewhart may be seen

Healthcare Operat ions Management28

as its grandfather. Both Deming and Juran studied under Shewhart, and much
of their work was influenced by his ideas.

Shewhart believed that managers need certain information to enable them
to make scientific, efficient, and economical decisions. He developed statistical
process control (SPC) charts to supply that information (Shewhart 1931). He
also believed that management and production practices need to be continu-
ously evaluated, and then adopted or rejected on the basis of this evaluation, if
an organization hopes to evolve and survive. Deming’s cycle of improvement,
known as plan-do-check-act (PDCA) (sometimes rendered as plan-do-study-
act), was adapted from Shewhart’s work (Shewhart and Deming 1939).

W. Edwards Deming
Deming was an employee of the US government in the 1930s and 1940s, work-
ing with statistical sampling techniques. He became a supporter and student of
Shewhart, believing Shewhart’s techniques could be useful in nonmanufactur-
ing environments. Deming applied SPC methods to his work at the National
Bureau of the Census to improve clerical operations in preparation for the
1940 population census. As a result, in some cases productivity improved by
a factor of six (Kansal and Rao 2006).

Deming taught seminars to bring his and Shewhart’s work to US and
Canadian organizations, where major reductions in scrap and rework resulted.
However, after World War II, Deming’s ideas lost popularity in the United
States, mainly because demand for all products was so great that quality became
unimportant; any product, regardless of how well it was made, was snapped
up by hungry consumers.

After the war, Deming traveled to Japan as an adviser for that country’s
census. While he was there, the Union of Japanese Scientists and Engineers
invited him to lecture on quality control techniques, and Deming brought
his message to Japanese executives: Improving quality reduces expenses while
increasing productivity and market share. During the 1950s and 1960s, Deming’s
ideas were widely known and implemented in Japan, but not in the United States.

The energy crisis of the 1970s was the turning point. In part as a result
of oil shortages, the small, well-built Japanese automobiles increased in popular-
ity, and the US auto industry saw declines in demand, setting the stage for the
return of Deming’s ideas. The 1980 television documentary If Japan Can . . .
Why Can’t We?, investigating the increasing competition that numerous US
industries faced from Japan, made Deming and his quality ideas known to a
broad audience. Much like the Institute of Medicine report To Err Is Human
(1999) increased awareness of the need for quality in healthcare, this documen-
tary drove US industry’s attention to the need for quality in manufacturing.

Deming’s quality ideas reflected his statistical background, but his expe-
rience in their implementation prompted him to expand his approach. He
instructed managers in the two types of variation—special cause, resulting from

Statistical process
control (SPC)
A scientific
approach to
controlling the
performance
of a process by
measuring the
process outputs
and then using
statistical tools to
determine whether
this process is
meeting expected
performance.

Plan-do-check-act
(PDCA)
A core process
improvement
tool with four
elements: Plan
a change to a
process, enact
the change, check
to make sure it
is working as
expected, and
act to make sure
the change is
sustainable. PDCA
functions as a
continuous cycle
and, as such,
is sometimes
referred to as the
Deming wheel.

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 29

a change in the system that can be identified or assigned and the problem fixed,
and common cause, deriving from the natural differences in the system that cannot
be eliminated without changing the system. Although identifying the common
causes of variation is possible, these causes cannot be fixed without the authority
and ability to improve the system, for which management is typically responsible.

Moving far beyond SPC, Deming’s quality methods include a systematic
approach to problem solving and continuous process improvement with his
PDCA cycle. He also believed that management is ultimately responsible for
quality and must actively support and encourage quality “transformations”
in organizations. In the preface to Out of the Crisis, Deming (1986) writes:

Drastic changes are required. The first step in the transformation is to learn how to

change. . . . Long term commitment to new learning and new philosophy is required

of any management that seeks transformation. The timid and the faint-hearted, and

people that expect quick results are doomed to disappointment. Whilst the intro-

duction of statistical problem solving and quality techniques and computerization

and robotization have a part to play, this is not the solution: Solving problems, big

problems and little problems, will not halt the decline of American industry, nor will

expansion in use of computers, gadgets, and robotic machinery.

Benefits from massive expansion of new machinery also constitute a vain

hope. Massive immediate expansion in the teaching of statistical methods to pro-

duction workers is not the answer either, nor wholesale flashes of quality control

circles. All these activities make their contribution, but they only prolong the life of

the patient, they cannot halt the decline. Only transformation of management and

of Government’s relations with industry can halt the decline.

Out of the Crisis contains Deming’s famous 14 points for management.
Although not as well known, he also included an adaptation of the 14 points
for medical services (exhibit 2.4), which he attributed to Drs. Paul B. Batalden
and Loren Vorlicky of the Health Services Research Center in Minneapolis
(Deming 1986).

1. Establish constancy of purpose toward service.
a. Define in operational terms what you mean by “service to patients.”
b. Specify standards of service for a year hence and for five years hence.
c. Define the patients whom you are seeking to serve.
d. Constancy of purpose brings innovation.
e. Innovate for better service.
f. Put resources into maintenance and new aids to production.

g. Decide whom the administrators are responsible to and the means by
which they will be held responsible.

EXHIBIT 2.4
Deming’s
Adaptation of
the 14 Points for
Medical Service

(continued)

Healthcare Operat ions Management30

h. Translate this constancy of purpose to service to patients and the
community.

i. The board of directors must hold onto the purpose.

2. Adopt the new philosophy. We are in a new economic age. We can no lon-
ger live with commonly accepted levels of mistakes, materials not suited
to the job, people on the job who do not know what the job is and are
afraid to ask, failure of management to understand their job, antiquated
methods of training on the job, and inadequate and ineffective supervi-
sion. The board must put resources into this new philosophy, with com-
mitment to in-service training.

3. a. Require statistical evidence of quality of incoming materials, such as
pharmaceuticals. Inspection is not the answer. Inspection is too late
and is unreliable. Inspection does not produce quality. The quality is
already built in and paid for. Require corrective action, where needed,
for all tasks that are performed in the hospital.

b. Institute a rigid program of feedback from patients in regard to their
satisfaction with services.

c. Look for evidence of rework or defects and the cost that may accrue.

4. Deal with vendors that can furnish statistical evidence of control. We
must take a clear stand that price of services has no meaning without
adequate measure of quality. Without such a stand for rigorous mea-
sures of quality, business drifts to the lowest bidder, low quality and high
cost being the inevitable result.

Requirement of suitable measures of quality will, in all likelihood,
require us to reduce the number of vendors. We must work with vendors
so that we understand the procedures that they use to achieve reduced
numbers of defects.

5. Improve constantly and forever the system of production and service.

6. Restructure training.
a. Develop the concept of tutors.
b. Develop increased in-service education.
c. Teach employees methods of statistical control on the job.
d. Provide operational definitions of all jobs.
e. Provide training until the learner’s work reaches the state of statisti-

cal control.

7. Improve supervision. Supervision is the responsibility of the
management.
a. Supervisors need time to help people on the job.
b. Supervisors need to find ways to translate the constancy of purpose

to the individual employee.
c. Supervisors must be trained in simple statistical methods with the

aim to detect and eliminate special causes of mistakes and rework.
d. Focus supervisory time on people who are out of statistical control

and not those who are low performers. If the members of a group are

EXHIBIT 2.4
Deming’s

Adaptation of
the 14 Points for
Medical Service
(continued from
previous page)

(continued)

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 31

The New Economics for Industry, Government, Education (Deming 1994)
outlines the Deming System of Profound Knowledge. Deming believed that
to transform organizations, the individuals in those organizations need to
understand the four parts of this system.

1. Appreciation for a system: Everything is related to everything else, and
those inside the system need to understand the relationships in it.

2. Knowledge about variation: This part of the system refers to what can
and cannot be done to decrease either of the two types of variation.

in fact in statistical control, there will be some low performers and
some high performers.

e. Teach supervisors how to use the results of surveys of patients.

8. Drive out fear. We must break down the class distinctions between types
of workers within the organization—physicians, nonphysicians, clinical
providers versus nonclinical providers, physician to physician. Discon-
tinue gossip. Cease to blame employees for problems of the system. Man-
agement should be held responsible for faults of the system. People need
to feel secure to make suggestions. Management must follow through on
suggestions. People on the job cannot work effectively if they dare not
offer suggestions for simplification and improvement of the system.

9. Break down barriers between departments. One way would be to encour-
age switches of personnel in related departments.

10. Eliminate numerical goals, slogans, and posters imploring people to do
better. Instead, display accomplishments of the management in respect
to helping employees improve their performance.

11. Eliminate work standards that set quotas. Work standards must produce
quality, not mere quantity. It is better to take aim at rework, error, and
defects.

12. Institute a massive training program in statistical techniques. Bring statisti-
cal techniques down to the level of the individual employee’s job, and help
him to gather information about the nature of his job in a systematic way.

13. Institute a vigorous program for retraining people in new skills. People
must be secure about their jobs in the future and must know that acquir-
ing new skills will facilitate security.

14. Create a structure in top management that will push every day on the
previous 13 points. Top management may organize a task force with the
authority and obligation to act. This task force will require guidance from
an experienced consultant, but the consultant cannot take on obligations
that only the management can carry out.

EXHIBIT 2.4
Deming’s
Adaptation of
the 14 Points for
Medical Service
(continued from
previous page)

Source: Full credit and proper copyright notice must be given for material used. Please credit as
follows: Deming, W. Edwards, Out of the Crisis, pp. 199–203, © 2000 Massachusetts Institute of
Technology, by permission of The MIT Press.

Healthcare Operat ions Management32

3. Theory of knowledge: The theory highlights the need for understanding
and knowledge rather than information.

4. Knowledge of psychology: People are intrinsically motivated and different
from one another, and attempts to use generic extrinsic motivators can
result in unwanted outcomes.

Deming’s 14 points and System of Profound Knowledge still provide a
road map for organizational transformation.

Joseph M. Juran
Juran was a contemporary of Deming and a student of Shewhart. He began his
career at the Western Electric Hawthorne Works plant, the site of the famous
Hawthorne studies (Mayo 1933) related to worker motivation. Western Electric
had close ties to Bell Telephone, Shewhart’s employer, because the company
was the sole supplier of telephone equipment to Bell.

During World War II, Juran served as assistant administrator for the
Lend-Lease Administration. Juran’s quality improvement techniques made him
instrumental in improving the efficiency of processes by eliminating unnecessary
paperwork and ensuring the timely arrival of supplies to US allies.

Juran’s Quality Handbook (Juran and Godfrey 1998) was first published
in 1951 and remains a standard reference for quality. Juran was among the
first quality experts to define quality from the customer perspective as “fitness
for use.”

His contributions to quality include the adaptation of the Pareto prin-
ciple to the quality arena (see chapter 9 for its application in quality improve-
ment). According to this principle, 80 percent of defects are caused by 20
percent of problems, and quality improvement should therefore focus on the
“vital few” to gain the most benefit. The roots of Six Sigma programs can be
seen in Juran’s (1986) quality trilogy, shown in exhibit 2.5.

Avedis Donabedian
Avedis Donabedian was born in 1919 in Beirut, Lebanon, and received a
medical degree from the American University of Beirut. In 1955, he earned a
master’s degree in public health from Harvard University. While a student at
Harvard, Donabedian wrote a paper on quality assessment that brought his
work to the attention of various experts in the field of public health. He taught
for a short period at New York Medical College before becoming a faculty
member at the School of Public Health of the University of Michigan, where
he stayed for the remainder of his career.

Shortly after Donabedian joined the University of Michigan faculty,
the US Public Health Service began a project looking at the entire field of
health services research, for which Donabedian was asked to review and evalu-
ate the literature on quality assessment. This work culminated in his famous

Pareto principle
Developed by
Italian economist
Vilfredo Pareto in
1906 on the basis
of his observation
that 80 percent
of the wealth in
Italy was owned by
20 percent of the
population.

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 33

article, “Evaluating the Quality of Medical Care” (Donabedian 1966), followed
by a three-volume book series, titled Exploration in Quality Assessment and
Monitoring (Donabedian 1980, 1982, 1985). Over the course of his career,
Donabedian wrote 16 books and more than 100 articles on quality assessment
and improvement in the healthcare sector on such topics as the definition of
quality in healthcare, the relationship between outcomes and process, the
impact of clinical decisions on quality, the effectiveness of quality programs,
and the relationship between quality and cost (Sunol 2000).

Donabedian (1980) defined healthcare quality in terms of efficacy, effi-
ciency, optimality, adaptability, legitimacy, equality, and cost. He was among the
first quality researchers to view healthcare as a system composed of structure,
process, and outcome, providing a framework for health services research still
used today (Donabedian 1966). He also highlighted many of the issues that
arise when attempting to measure structures, processes, and outcomes.

Basic Quality Processes

Quality Planning • Identify the customers, both external and internal.
• Determine customer needs.
• Develop product features that respond to customer.
• Establish quality goals that meet the needs of custom-

ers and suppliers alike, and do so at a minimum com-
bined cost.

• Develop a process that can produce the needed product
features.

• Prove the process capability—prove that the process
can meet quality goals under operating conditions.

Control • Choose control subjects—what to control.
• Choose units of measurement.
• Establish measurement.
• Establish standards of performance.
• Measure actual performance.
• Interpret the difference (actual versus standard).
• Take action on the difference.

Improvement • Prove the need for improvement.
• Identify specific projects for improvement.
• Organize to guide the projects.
• Organize for diagnosis—for discovery of causes.
• Diagnose to find the causes.
• Provide remedies.
• Prove that the remedies are effective under operating

conditions.
• Provide for control to hold the gains.

Source: Juran, J. M. 1986. “The Quality Trilogy.” Quality Progress 19 (8): 19–24. Reprinted with per-
mission from Juran Institute, Inc.

EXHIBIT 2.5
Juran’s Quality
Trilogy

Healthcare Operat ions Management34

Outcomes were viewed by Donabedian in terms of recovery, restoration
of function, and survival, but he also included less easily measured outcome areas
such as patient satisfaction (Donabedian 1966). He noted that process of care
consists of the methods by which care is delivered, including gathering appropri-
ate and necessary information, developing competence in diagnosis and therapy,
and providing preventive care. Finally, he established the principle that structure
is related to the environment in which care takes place, including facilities and
equipment, medical staff qualifications, administrative structure, and programs.
Donabedian (1966, 188) believed that quality of care is related not only to each
of these elements individually but also to the relationships among them:

Clearly, the relationships between process and outcome, and between structure

and both process and outcome, are not fully understood. With regard to this, the

requirements of validation are best expressed by the concept . . . of a chain of events

in which each event is an end to the one that comes before it and a necessary condi-

tion to the one that follows.

Similar to Deming and Juran, Donabedian advocated the continuous
improvement of healthcare quality through a cycle of structure and process
changes supported by outcome assessment.

The influence of Donabedian’s seminal work in healthcare can still be
seen. Pay-for-performance programs (structure) reward providers for deliv-
ering care that meets evidence-based goals (assessed in terms of process or
outcomes). The 5 Million Lives Campaign, and its predecessor, the 100,000
Lives Campaign (IHI 2006), are programs (structure) designed to decrease
mortality (outcome) through the use of evidence-based practices and procedures
(process). Not only are assessments of process, structure, and outcome being
developed, implemented, and reported in healthcare, but the quality focus is
shifting toward the systematic view of healthcare advocated by Donabedian.

Philosophies of Performance Improvement
TQM and CQI, Leading to Six Sigma
The US Navy is credited with coining the term total quality management
(TQM) in the 1980s to describe its approach, informed by Japanese models, to
quality management and improvement (Hefkin 1993). TQM has come to refer
to a management philosophy or program aimed at ensuring quality—defined
as customer satisfaction—by focusing on it throughout the organization and
for each product or service life cycle. All stakeholders in the organization par-
ticipate in a continuous improvement cycle.

TQM, referred to in healthcare as continuous quality improvement
(CQI), is defined differently by different organizations and individuals, but in
general it has come to encompass the theory and ideas of such quality experts

Total quality
management
(TQM)
A management
philosophy or
program aimed
at ensuring
quality—defined
as customer
satisfaction—by
focusing on it
throughout the
organization and
for each product or
service life cycle.

Continuous quality
improvement (CQI)
A comprehensive
quality
improvement
and management
system with three
key components:
planning, control,
and improvement.

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 35

as Deming, Juran, Philip B. Crosby, Armand V. Feigenbaum, Kaoru Ishikawa,
and Donabedian. Perhaps because TQM implementation and vocabulary vary
from one organization to the next, TQM programs have decreased in popularity
in the United States and have been replaced with more codified programs such
as Six Sigma, Lean, and the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award criteria.

Six Sigma and TQM are both based on the teachings of Shewhart,
Deming, Juran, and other quality experts. Both methodologies emphasize the
importance of top management support and leadership, and both focus on
continuous improvement as a means to ensure the long-term viability of an
organization. The define-measure-analyze-improve-control cycle of Six Sigma
(see chapter 9) has its roots in the PDCA cycle of TQM. Six Sigma and TQM
have been described as both philosophies and methodologies. Six Sigma can
also be defined as a metric, or goal, of 3.4 defects per million opportunities,
represented by its unit-based form, 6σ; TQM does not specify a numeric goal
to achieve. TQM is not defined as Six Sigma and is not supported by or associ-
ated with any certification programs.

The definition of TQM was shaped mainly by academics and is abstract
and general, whereas Six Sigma has its base in industry—Motorola and General
Electric were early developers—and is specific, providing a clear framework for
organizations to follow. Early TQM efforts focused on quality as the primary
goal; improved business performance was thought to be a natural outcome of
this goal. Quality departments were mainly responsible for TQM throughout
the organization. While Six Sigma sets quality (again, as defined by the customer
in terms of satisfaction) as a primary goal and focuses on tangible results, it also
takes into account the effects of a Six Sigma initiative on business performance.
No longer is the focus on quality for quality’s sake; instead, a quality focus is
seen as a means to improve organizational performance. Six Sigma training in
the use of specific tools and techniques provides common understanding and
common vocabulary across organizations. In other words, this method makes
quality the goal of the entire organization, not just the quality department.

In essence, Six Sigma took the theory and tools of TQM and codified
their implementation, providing a well-defined approach to quality that orga-
nizations can quickly and easily adopt.

ISO 9000
The ISO 9000 series of standards, first published in 1987 by the Interna-
tional Organization for Standardization (ISO), is primarily concerned with
quality management, or how the organization ensures that its products and
services satisfy the customer’s quality requirements and comply with applicable
regulations. In 2002, the ISO 9000 standard was renamed ISO 9000:2000,
consolidating the ISO 9001, 9002, and 9003 standards into the set.

The standards are specifically concerned with the processes of ensuring
quality rather than the products or services themselves. ISO standards give

ISO 9000
A series of
process standards
developed by
the International
Organization for
Standardization to
give organizations
guidelines for
developing and
maintaining
effective quality
systems.

Healthcare Operat ions Management36

organizations guidelines by which to develop and maintain effective quality
systems.

A significant number of US hospitals are now using the ISO 9001 Quality
Management Program to achieve Medicare accreditation. This deeming author-
ity, whereby the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services confers accreditation
authority on a third party, was granted to DNV GL (2016) in 2008.

Many organizations require that their vendors be ISO certified. For an
organization to be registered as an ISO 9001 supplier, it must demonstrate
to an accredited registrar (a third-party organization that is itself certified) its
compliance with the requirements specified in the standard(s). Organizations
that are not required by their vendors to be certified can still use the standards
to develop quality systems without attempting to be certified.

Baldrige Award
Japanese automobiles and electronics gained market share in the United States
during the 1970s because their quality was higher and their costs were lower
than those manufactured in the United States. In the early 1980s, both US
government and industry believed that the only way for the country to stay
competitive was to increase industry focus on quality. The Malcolm Baldrige
National Quality Award was established by Congress in 1987 to recognize
US organizations for their achievements in quality. Its aim was to raise aware-
ness about the importance of quality as a competitive priority and help dis-
seminate best practices by providing examples of how to achieve quality and
performance excellence.

The award was originally given annually to a maximum of three organi-
zations in each of three categories: manufacturing, service, and small business.
In 1999, the categories of education and healthcare were added, and in 2002,
the first Baldrige Award in healthcare was bestowed. The healthcare category
includes hospitals, health maintenance organizations, long-term care facilities,
healthcare practitioner offices, home health agencies, health insurance compa-
nies, and medical and dental laboratories.

The program is a cooperative effort of government and the private sec-
tor. The evaluations are performed by a board of examiners, which includes
experts from industry, academia, government, and the not-for-profit sector.
The examiners volunteer their time to review applications, conduct site visits,
and provide applicants with feedback on their strengths and opportunities for
improvement in seven categories. Additionally, board members give presenta-
tions on quality management, performance improvement, and the Baldrige
Award.

A main purpose of the award is the dissemination of best practices and
strategies. Recipients are asked to participate in conferences, provide basic mate-
rials on their organizations’ performance strategies and methods to interested
parties, and answer inquiries from the media. Baldrige Award recipients have

Malcolm Baldrige
National Quality
Award
An annual award
established by the
US Congress in
1987 to recognize
organizations
in the United
States for their
achievements in
quality.

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 37

gone beyond these expectations to give thousands of presentations aimed at
educating other organizations on the benefits of using the Baldrige framework
and disseminating best practices. In fact, many organizations now use the
application process as a structure for their comprehensive quality improve-
ment programs.

Just-in-Time, Leading to Lean and Agile
Just-in-time (JIT) is an inventory management strategy aimed at reducing or
eliminating inventory. It is one aspect of Lean manufacturing, whose goal is to
eliminate waste, of which inventory is one form. JIT was the term originally
used for Lean production in the United States, where industry leaders noted
the success of the Japanese auto manufacturers and attempted to copy it by
adopting Japanese practices. As academics and organizations realized that Lean
production was more than JIT, inventory management terms such as big JIT
and little JIT were employed, and JIT production became synonymous with
Lean production. For clarity, the term JIT refers to the inventory management
strategy in this text.

After World War II, Japanese industry needed to rebuild and grow, and
its leaders wanted to copy the assembly line and mass production systems found
in the United States. However, the country had limited resources and limited
storage space. At Toyota Motor Corporation, Taiichi Ohno and Shigeo Shingo
developed what has become known as the Toyota Production System (TPS).
They began by realizing that large amounts of capital dollars were tied up in
inventory in the mass production system typical at that time.

Ohno and Shingo sought to reduce inventory by various means, most
importantly by increasing the rate at which autos were assembled (known as
flow rate). Standardization reduced the number of parts in inventory and the
number of tools and machines needed. Processes such as single-minute exchange
of die allowed for quick changeovers of tooling, increasing the amount of
time that could be used for production by reducing setup time. As in-process
inventory was reduced, large amounts of capital were freed for other purposes.

Customer lead time (the time a customer spends waiting for his vehicle
once it has been ordered) was reduced as the speed of product flow increased
throughout the plant. Because inventory provides a buffer for poor quality,
reducing inventory forced Toyota to pay close attention to not only its own
quality but suppliers’ quality as well. To discover the best ways to reduce inven-
tory, management and line workers needed to cooperate, and teams became
an integral part of Lean.

When the US auto industry began to be threatened by the increased
popularity of Japanese automobiles, management and scholars began to study
this Japanese system. However, what they brought back were usually the most
visible techniques of the program—JIT, kanbans, quality circles (discussed
in more depth later in the book)—rather than the underlying principles of

Just-in-time (JIT)
An inventory
management
system designed
to improve
efficiency and
reduce waste.
Part of Lean
manufacturing.

Toyota Production
System (TPS)
A quality
improvement
system developed
by Toyota Motor
Corporation for
its automobile
manufacturing
lines. TPS has
broad applicability
beyond auto
manufacturing and
is now commonly
known as Lean
manufacturing.

Healthcare Operat ions Management38

Lean. Not surprisingly, many of the first US firms that attempted to copy this
system failed; however, some were successful. The Machine That Changed the
World (Womack, Jones, and Roos 1990), a study of Japanese, European, and
American automobile manufacturing practices, first introduced the term Lean
manufacturing and brought the theory, principles, and techniques of Lean to
a broad audience.

Lean is both a management philosophy and a strategy. Its goal is to
eliminate all waste in the system. Although Lean production originated in
manufacturing, the goal of eliminating waste is easily applied to the service
sector. Many healthcare organizations are using the tools and techniques asso-
ciated with Lean to improve efficiency and effectiveness.

Sometimes seen as a broader strategy than TQM or Six Sigma, Lean
requires an organization to be defined by quality. To operate as a quality orga-
nization, it does not necessarily need to be Lean. However, if customers value
speed of delivery and low cost, and quality is defined as customer satisfaction,
a quality focus should lead an organization to implement Lean. That said,
either a Lean initiative or another type of quality improvement program can
result in the same outcome.

Bringing Together Baldrige, Six Sigma, Lean, and ISO 9000
All of these systems or frameworks are designed for performance improvement,
and each differs in area of emphasis, tools, and techniques. However, they all
emphasize customer focus, process or system analysis, teamwork, and quality,
and they all are compatible.

The importance of the organization’s culture, and management’s ability
to shape that culture, cannot be overstated. The successful implementation of
any program or deployment of any technique requires a culture that supports
those changes. The leading causes of failure of new initiatives are lack of top
management support and absence of buy-in on the part of employees.

Management must believe that a particular initiative will make the organi-
zation better and must demonstrate its support in that belief, both ideologically
and financially, to ensure the success of the initiative. Employee buy-in and
support only occur when top management commitment is evident. Communi-
cation and training can aid in this process, but only unequivocal management
commitment ensures success.

Supply Chain Management

The term supply chain management (SCM) was first used in the early 1980s. In
2005, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (2016) agreed
on the following definition of SCM:

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 39

Supply chain management encompasses the planning and management of all activi-

ties involved in sourcing and procurement, conversion, and all logistics management

activities. Importantly, it also includes coordination and collaboration with channel

partners, which can be suppliers, intermediaries, third party service providers, and

customers. In essence, supply chain management integrates supply and demand

management within and across companies.

This definition makes apparent that SCM is a broad discipline, encompassing
activities outside as well as inside an organization.

SCM has its roots in systems thinking. Systems thinking is based on the
idea that everything affects everything else. The need for systems thinking comes
from the notion that optimizing one part of a system is possible, and even likely,
if the whole system is suboptimal. A current example of a suboptimal system
in healthcare can be seen in one purchasing avenue for prescription drugs. In
the United States, the customer can optimize his drug purchases (minimize
cost) by purchasing drugs from pharmacies located in foreign countries (e.g.,
Canada, Mexico). Often, these drugs are manufactured in the United States.
While the customer has minimized his costs, the total supply chain has incurred
additional costs, as with the extra transportation that takes place shipping drugs
to Canada or another foreign country and then back to the United States.

SCM became increasingly important to manufacturing organizations in
the late 1990s, driven by the need to decrease costs in response to competitive
pressures and enabled by technological advances. As manufacturing became
more automated, labor costs as a percentage of total costs decreased, and the
percentage of material and supply costs increased. In 2006, 70 to 80 percent
of the cost of a manufactured good was expended in purchased materials and
services, and less than 25 percent was spent on labor (BEA 2006); this trend
continues today. Consequently, fewer opportunities are available for reducing
the cost of goods through decreasing labor and more opportunities are associ-
ated with managing the supply chain. Additionally, advances in information
technology allow firms to collect and analyze the information needed to be
increasingly efficient in managing their supply chains.

Indeed, SCM was significantly enabled by technology, beginning with
the inventory management systems of the 1970s—including materials require-
ments planning—followed by the enterprise resource planning systems of the
1990s. As industry moved to increasingly sophisticated technological systems for
managing the flow of information and goods, its ability to collect and respond
to information about the entire supply chain expanded and firms could now
actively manage their supply chains.

SCM is becoming increasingly important in healthcare as well, with its
growing focus on reducing costs and the need to reduce those costs through
the development of efficient and effective supply chains.

Systems thinking
A view of reality
that emphasizes
the relationships
and interactions
of each part of the
system to all of the
other parts.

Healthcare Operat ions Management40

Big Data and Analytics

Business has always embraced computing technologies as they become available
and reliable. In a 2001 article published in The Economist, the magazine looks
back at the first use of computers in business, for example:

[T]he Lyons Electronic Office (LEO), was built by Lyons, a British catering company. On

November 17th 1951, it ran a program to evaluate the costs, prices and margins for

that week’s output of bread, cakes and pies, and ran the same program each week

thereafter. In February 1954 LEO took on the weekly calculation of the company’s

payroll, prompting an article in these pages [referring to Economist (1954)].

Other computers had been used to run one-off calculations for businesses,

and many firms used mechanical or electrical calculators. But LEO was the first dedi-

cated business machine to operate on the “stored program” principle, meaning that

it could be quickly reconfigured to perform different tasks by loading a new program.

Between 1950 and 1970, business use of computers was essentially con-
fined to databases and computing machines that were physically located in the
business enterprise and that only operated on the organization’s owned data.
In the 1970s, the personal computer was created, which allowed individuals
in business to conduct their own analysis using a desktop machine. The year
1991 gave rise to the use of the Internet, freeing analysts to access data from
both their own company and other sources throughout the world. In 1997,
Google launched its search engine and the term big data began to appear.

Big data is typically characterized by the so-called three Vs (Marr 2015):

• Volume. Data sets were becoming very large—in 2008, 9.57 trillion
gigabytes of data were processed by the world’s computers.

• Variety. Many types of data are now being stored (e.g., text, video,
clinical equipment outputs).

• Velocity. The data enter computer databases at an increasing rate of
speed.

In 2005, HaDoop, an open source data framework developed to process
big data, was widely deployed (Bappalige 2014). HaDoop software allowed
very large clusters of multiple computers to work as one and thereby provide
the computing power necessary for the analysis of very large data sets. In 2014,
mobile Internet usage (e.g., via tablets and smartphones) surpassed desktop
usage, and the connection of many devices (e.g., thermostats, lights, refrigera-
tors, pacemakers) to the Internet continues to increase (Marr 2015).

As these new technologies came online, opportunities for increasingly
sophisticated analysis emerged. Many of these new and powerful tools are
described throughout the remainder of this book.

Chapter 2: History of Performance Improvement 41

Conclusion

Service organizations in general, and healthcare organizations in particular,
have lagged in their adoption of process improvement philosophies, techniques,
and tools of operations management, but they no longer have this option.
Hospitals, health systems, and other healthcare delivery organizations face
increasing pressures from consumers, industry, and government to provide
their services in an efficient and effective manner, and they must adopt these
philosophies to remain competitive.

In healthcare today, organizations such as the Institute for Healthcare
Improvement and AHRQ are leading the way in the development and dis-
semination of tools, techniques, and programs aimed at improving the quality,
safety, efficiency, and effectiveness of the US healthcare system.

Discussion Questions

1. What is the difference between data, information, knowledge,
understanding, and wisdom? Give specific examples of each in your
own organization.

2. How has operations management changed since its early days as
scientific management?

3. What are the major factors leading to increased interest in the use of
operations management tools and techniques in the healthcare sector?

4. Why has ISO 9000 certification become important to healthcare
organizations?

5. Research those organizations that have won the Baldrige Award in the
healthcare category. What factors led to their success in winning the
award?

6. What are some of the reasons for the success of Six Sigma?
7. What are some of the reasons for the success of Lean?
8. Compare and contrast ISO 9000, the Baldrige

criteria, and Six Sigma. (More information
on each of these programs is available on the
book’s companion website.) Which would you
find most appropriate to your organization? Why?

9. How are Lean initiatives similar to total quality management and Six
Sigma initiatives? How are they different?

10. Why is supply chain management increasing in importance for
healthcare organizations?

11. What are some new opportunities for the use of big data and analytics
in healthcare?

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Healthcare Operat ions Management42

References

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Practices.” In Localizing Care to High-Volume Centers. Evidence Report/Technol-
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for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Bappalige, S. P. 2014. “An Introduction to Apache Hadoop for Big Data.” Published August
26. https://opensource.com/life/14/8/intro-apache-hadoop-big-data.

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CHAPTER

45

EVIDENCE-BASED MEDICINE AND VALUE-
BASED PURCHASING

Operations Management
in Action

MultiCare Health System is an inte-
grated delivery system serving com-
munities throughout Washington state.
After reviewing its patient populations,
it undertook an initiative to lower the
costs of care and improve the care expe-
rience for pneumonia patients.

This initiative included build-
ing an evidenced-based order set and
assigning a team of social workers,
called personal health partners, to
research and improve patient follow-up
and communication processes. It also
deployed an analytics application to
provide near real-time feedback on com-
pliance and performance while offering
a single view of patient-specific data
across multiple visits and care settings.

The MultiCare team determined
that a standardized electronic order set
was the easiest and most effective way
to define best practices while leverag-
ing informatics to help clinicians “do the
right thing.” This effort required bring-
ing its clinicians together to review the
evidence on best practices in the treat-
ment of pneumonia and to arrive at a
consensus on the treatment protocols.

Advanced analytics provided new
capabilities to correlate processes with
outcomes. MultiCare used an analytics

3
OVE RVI EW

The science of medicine progressed rapidly through the latter half

of the twentieth century, with advances in pharmaceuticals, surgi-

cal techniques, and laboratory and imaging technology promoting

the rapid subspecialization of medicine itself. This “age of miracles”

improved health and lengthened life spans.

In the mid-1960s, the federal government began the Medi-

care and Medicaid programs. This new source of funding fueled the

explosive growth and expansion of the US healthcare delivery system.

However, in this vastly expanded care environment, many new tools

and clinical approaches that had little scientific merit were initiated

alongside those with great promise. As these clinical approaches were

used broadly, they became community standards. At the same time,

many simple yet highly effective tools and techniques either fell out

of favor or were not used consistently.

In response to these trends, a number of clinicians began the

movement that has become known today as evidence-based medicine

(EBM). As defined earlier, EBM is the conscientious and judicious use

of the best current evidence in making decisions about the care of

individual patients. In almost all cases, the broad application of EBM

not only improves clinical outcomes for patients but reduces costs in

the system as well.

This chapter reviews

• the history, current status, and future of EBM;

• public reporting;

• pay for performance (P4P) and payment reform; and

• value purchasing, including Medicare’s Hospital Value-Based

Purchasing (VBP) program

EBM is explored in depth, followed by an examination of how

payers use its principles to encourage the use of EBM by clinicians.

(continued)

Healthcare Operat ions Management46

application that could
mine the data related
to pneumonia patients
and provide near real-
time, interactive data
that showed the im-
pact of interventions
on the high-level out-
come metrics: mortal-
ity, readmissions, length of stay (LOS), and cost. The feedback generated through
these analytic tools provided the platform for continuous improvement in the order
sets and protocols.

Through these efforts, MultiCare has realized significant outcome improve-
ments, including the following:

• 28 percent reduction in pneumonia mortality rate

• 23 percent reduction in pneumonia readmissions

• 2 percent decrease in LOS for pneumonia patients

• 6.4 percent reduction in average variable cost per patient

Source: Health Catalyst (2016).

Evidence-Based Medicine

The expansion of clinical knowledge has three major phases. First, basic research
is undertaken in the lab and with animal models. Second, carefully controlled
clinical trials are conducted to demonstrate the efficacy of a diagnostic or treat-
ment methodology that emerges from the preliminary research. Third, the
successful or promising clinical trial results are translated to clinical practice.

The final phase, translation, is where the system often breaks down. A
major study by the United Health Foundation examined the transfer of clinical
research knowledge to the so-called bedside and reported (Ellis et al. 2012)

both quality and actual medical costs for episodes of care provided by nearly 250,000

US physicians serving commercially insured patients nationwide. Overall, episode

costs for a set of major medical procedures varied about 2.5-fold, and for a selected

set of common chronic conditions, episode costs varied about 15-fold. Among doc-

tors meeting quality and efficiency benchmarks, however, costs for episodes of care

were on average 14 percent lower than among other doctors.

The cure for this wide variation in practice is the consistent application
of EBM. The key tool for doing so is the clinical guideline (Shekelle 2016):

OVE RVI EW (Continued)

The operations tools presented in other chapters of this book are

introduced in terms of how they are linked to achieving EBM goals.

The chapter concludes with an illustration of the chartering of a

project team to improve implementation of EBM at Vincent Valley

Hospital and Health System (VVH).

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 47

Clinical practice guidelines are recommendations for clinicians about the care of

patients with specific conditions. They should be based upon the best available

research evidence and practice experience.

The Institute of Medicine [2011] defines clinical practice guidelines as “state-

ments that include recommendations, intended to optimize patient care, that are

informed by a systematic review of evidence and an assessment of the benefits and

harms of alternative care options.”

Based on this definition, guidelines have two parts:

• The foundation is a systematic review of the research evidence bearing on a

clinical question, focused on the strength of the evidence on which clinical

decision-making for that condition is based.

• A set of recommendations, involving both the evidence and value judgments

regarding benefits and harms of alternative care options, addressing how

patients with that condition should be managed, everything else being equal.

A comprehensive source for such information is the National Guideline
Clearinghouse (NGC 2016), a database of evidence-based clinical practice
guidelines and related documents that contains more than 4,000 guidelines.
NGC is a joint project of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
(AHRQ), the American Medical Association, and America’s Health Insurance
Plans. In addition, AHRQ (2016b) provides easy-to-use resources for clinicians
and patients through its Effective Health Care Program.

What are the barriers to the wider application of EBM? Baiardini and
colleagues (2009) reviewed the literature and identified 293 potential obstacles
to the use of guidelines by physicians. They then grouped these into seven
barriers:

1. Lack of knowledge that guidelines exist for a specific condition
2. Lack of familiarity with the details of specific guidelines
3. Disagreement with the guideline recommendations
4. Inability to effectively apply a guideline’s recommendation due to lack

of skill, resources, or training
5. Lack of trust in the effectiveness of a guideline to improve outcomes—

particularly with an individual patient’s condition
6. Resistance to change and reliance on habits
7. External factors (lack of resources, financial barriers or incentives,

organizational factors)

The application of EBM is a two-way street that requires the involve-
ment of the patient as well as the physician. Baiardini and colleagues
(2009) also identified the following barriers to patients’ compliance with
guidelines:

Healthcare Operat ions Management48

• Presence of confounding characteristics, such as a psychiatric or
psychological comorbidity or lack of social support

• Difficulty in recognizing symptoms and adhering to therapies
prescribed for the symptoms

• Complex therapeutic regimens
• Relationship and personal interaction issues between patient and physician

Standard and Custom Patient Care
One historical criticism of EBM is that all patients are unique and EBM is
“cookbook” medicine that only applies to a few patients. EBM proponents
counter this argument with simple examples of well-accepted and effective
clinical practices that are inconsistently followed. A more productive view of
the mix of art and science in medicine is provided by Bohmer (2005), who
suggests that all healthcare is a blend of custom and standard care. Exhibit
3.1 shows the four currently used models that blend these two approaches.

Model A (separate and select) provides an initial sorting by patients
themselves. Those with standard problems are treated with standard care using
EBM guidelines. Examples of this type of system are specialty hospitals for
laser eye surgery and walk-in clinics operating in pharmacies and retail outlets.
Patients who do not fit the provider’s homogeneous clinical conditions are
referred to other providers who can deliver customized care (Bohmer 2005).

OutputInput
Reasoning
process

Sorting
process

Standard
subprocess

Customized
subprocess OI

(A) Separate
and select

O

I

(B) Separate and
accommodate

OO

I

O

I
(D) Integrated

O

I
(C) Modularized

EXHIBIT 3.1
Four

Approaches
to Blending
Custom and

Standard
Processes

Source: Bohmer (2005). Used with permission.

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 49

Model B (separate and accommodate) combines the two methods inside
one provider organization. Duke University Health System, for example, has
developed standard protocols for its cardiac patients. Patients are initially sorted,
and those who can be treated with the standard protocols are cared for by nurse
practitioners using a standard care model. Cardiologists care for the remainder
using custom care. However, on every fourth visit to the nurse practitioner,
the cardiologist and nurse practitioner review the patient’s case together to
ensure that standard care is still the best treatment approach (Bohmer 2005).

Model C (modularized) is used when the clinician moves from the role
of care provider to that of architect of care design for the patient. In this case, a
number of standard processes are assembled to treat the patient. The Andrews
Air Force Base clinic uses this system to treat hypertension patients. “After an
initial evaluation, treatment may include weight control, diet modification,
drug therapy, stress control, and ongoing surveillance. Each component may
be provided by a separate professional and sometimes a separate organization.
What makes the care uniquely suited to each patient is the combination of
components” (Bohmer 2005, 326).

Model D (integrated) combines standard care and custom care in a
single organization. In contrast to Model B, each patient receives a mix of
both custom and standard care as determined by her condition. Intermountain
Healthcare (IHC) employs this model through the use of 62 standard care
processes available as protocols in its electronic health record (EHR). These
processes cover “the care of over 90 percent of patients admitted in IHC hos-
pitals” (Bohmer 2005, 326). Clinicians are encouraged to override elements
in these protocols when it is in the best interest of the patient. All of these
overrides are collected and analyzed, and changes are made to the protocol,
which is an effective method to continuously improve clinical care.

All of the tools and techniques of operations improvement included in
the remainder of this book can be used to make standard care processes oper-
ate effectively and efficiently.

EBM and Cost Reduction
EBM has the potential to not only improve clinical outcomes but also decrease
total cost in the US healthcare system. Potentially preventable hospitalizations,
which might be avoided with high-quality outpatient treatment and disease
management, provide just one significant opportunity for financial savings.

AHRQ (2015) developed a set of prevention quality indicators (PQIs)
to assist providers in reducing the number of potentially preventable hospi-
talizations for chronic and acute conditions throughout the United States. A
patient who is admitted to a hospital and has a PQI code is an individual whose
hospitalization or other severe complication is potentially preventable when
good, evidence-based outpatient care is delivered.

Prevention quality
indicator (PQI)
A set of measures
that can be used
with hospital
discharge data
to identify
patients whose
hospitalizations
or complications
might have been
avoided with the
use of evidence-
based ambulatory
care.

Healthcare Operat ions Management50

The PQI system is now integrated with many other federal healthcare
improvement efforts (exhibit 3.2).

Chronic Disease Management
One of the most expensive aspects of all healthcare systems is the care of patients
with chronic disease (e.g., diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,
congestive heart failure). Much of the variation in the outcomes of this care
can be attributed to providers’ and patients’ lack of adherence to EBM.

Fortunately, many investigators now look beyond determining which
clinical interventions provide good results (e.g., the use of statins) to identify-
ing those systems of care that produce superior results. (Chapter 9 provides
more details and examples of the use of business process improvements to
achieve high-quality care.)

Federal Initiatives Using AHRQ QIs*

Indicator Module

Inpatient
(IQI)

Patient
Safety
(PSI)

Pediatric
(PDI)

Prevention
(PQI)

HAC Reduction Program  
Hospital Inpatient Quality
Reporting Program  

Hospital VBP 
Shared Savings Program 
Partnership for Patients   
Healthcare Innovation
Awards (CMMI)   

Hospital Compare  
ACO: Accelerated
Development Learning
Sessions (CMMI)

 

Home and Community Based
Services  

* A sample of CMS and CMMI initiatives that use the AHRQ QIs.

Source: Reprinted from AHRQ (2015).

Note: AHRQ = Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality; CMMI = Center for Medicare & Medicaid
Innovation; CMS = Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; Hospital VBP = Medicare Hospital
Value-Based Purchasing program; IQI = inpatient quality initiative; PDI = pediatric initiative; PQI =
prevention quality initiative; PSI = patient safety initiative; QI = quality initiative.

EXHIBIT 3.2
PQIs and

Other Federal
Initiatives

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 51

The Chronic Care Model
Dr. Edward Wagner of the MacColl Center for Health Care Innovation, a leader in
the improvement of chronic care, has developed one of the most widely accepted
models for chronic disease management (Wagner et al. 2001). The first important
element of Wagner’s chronic care model (CCM) is population-based outreach,
which ensures that all patients in need of chronic disease management receive it.
Next, treatment plans are created that are sensitive to each patient’s preferences.
The most current evidence-based medicine is employed, and this process is aided
by clinical information systems with built-in decision support. The patient is
encouraged to change risky behaviors and improve the management of his health.

The clinical visit itself differs in the Wagner model to allow more time for
interaction between the physician and patients with complicated clinical issues.
Visits for routine or specialized matters are handled by other healthcare profes-
sionals (e.g., nurses, pharmacists, dieticians, lay health workers). Close follow-up,
supported by clinical information system registries and patient reminders, is also
characteristic of effective chronic disease management (Wagner et al. 2001).

The CCM has now been widely deployed. In a review of 16 studies of
the care of diabetes patients, for example, Stellefson, Dipnarine, and Stopka
(2013) found

evidence that CCM approaches have been effective in managing diabetes in US

primary care settings. Organizational leaders in health care systems initiated sys-

tem-level reorganizations that improved the coordination of diabetes care. Disease

registries and electronic medical records were used to establish patient-centered

goals, monitor patient progress, and identify lapses in care. Primary care physicians

(PCPs) were trained to deliver evidence-based care, and PCP office–based diabetes

self-management education improved patient outcomes.

Patient-Centered Medical Homes
The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) concept has emerged as an effec-
tive tool in the delivery of care to patients with chronic disease. The Affordable
Care Act (ACA) supported this innovation with additional payment for Medicaid
patients (§2703). Also known as the healthcare home, the PCMH has proven
to be a valuable addition to the care management approach for patients with
chronic diseases and is now being funded by both government and private payers.

AHRQ (2016a) defines the PCMH as

a model of the organization of primary care that delivers the core functions of pri-

mary health care.

The medical home encompasses five functions and attributes:

1. Comprehensive Care

The primary care medical home is accountable for meeting the large majority of

each patient’s physical and mental health care needs, including prevention and

Patient-centered
medical home
(PCMH)
Care that is
accessible,
continuous,
comprehensive,
family centered,
coordinated,
compassionate,
and culturally
effective.

Healthcare Operat ions Management52

wellness, acute care, and chronic care. Providing comprehensive care requires a

team of care providers. This team might include physicians, advanced practice

nurses, physician assistants, nurses, pharmacists, nutritionists, social workers,

educators, and care coordinators. Although some medical home practices may

bring together large and diverse teams of care providers to meet the needs of their

patients, many others, including smaller practices, will build virtual teams linking

themselves and their patients to providers and services in their communities.

2. Patient-Centered

The primary care medical home provides health care that is relationship-based

with an orientation toward the whole person. Partnering with patients and their

families requires understanding and respecting each patient’s unique needs,

culture, values, and preferences. The medical home practice actively supports

patients in learning to manage and organize their own care at the level the patient

chooses. Recognizing that patients and families are core members of the care

team, medical home practices ensure that they are fully informed partners in

establishing care plans.

3. Coordinated Care

The primary care medical home coordinates care across all elements of the

broader health care system, including specialty care, hospitals, home health

care, and community services and supports. Such coordination is particularly

critical during transitions between sites of care, such as when patients are being

discharged from the hospital. Medical home practices also excel at building clear

and open communication among patients and families, the medical home, and

members of the broader care team.

4. Accessible Services

The primary care medical home delivers accessible services with shorter waiting

times for urgent needs, enhanced in-person hours, around-the-clock telephone

or electronic access to a member of the care team, and alternative methods of

communication such as email and telephone care. The medical home practice

is responsive to patients’ preferences regarding access.

5. Quality and Safety

The primary care medical home demonstrates a commitment to quality and qual-

ity improvement by ongoing engagement in activities such as using evidence-

based medicine and clinical decision-support tools to guide shared decision

making with patients and families, engaging in performance measurement and

improvement, measuring and responding to patient experiences and patient

satisfaction, and practicing population health management. Sharing robust

quality and safety data and improvement activities publicly is also an important

marker of a system-level commitment to quality.

The PCMH model has been shown to increase quality and reduce costs.
A University of Minnesota evaluation of the Health Care Homes initiative

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 53

in that state found that over a five-year evaluation period, the use of medical
homes reduced inpatient admissions by 29 percent and hospital outpatient visits
by 38 percent. The study also reported improvements in the quality of care
for patients with diabetes, vascular disease, asthma, and depression (Wholey
et al. 2016, i, 43).

EBM and Comparative Effectiveness Research
The source of evidence for EBM has long been medical research that is pub-
lished in respected and refereed journals. However, these studies usually are
initiated by a single investigator’s interest, and thus the efficacy of many com-
mon clinical approaches has never been adequately tested. The medical research
community has held historical and understandable biases toward developing
technologies that are designed to address intractable diseases and mysterious
diagnostic challenges. Many aspects of routine healthcare have therefore never
been sufficiently evaluated.

To address this problem, the ACA (and the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act [ARRA]) contained significant policy direction for the
establishment and funding of a nonprofit corporation, the Patient-Centered
Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI). ACA Section 6301 states that the
mission of PCORI is

to assist patients, clinicians, purchasers, and policy-makers in making informed

health decisions by advancing the quality and relevance of evidence concerning the

manner in which diseases, disorders, and other health conditions can effectively and

appropriately be prevented, diagnosed, treated, monitored, and managed through

research and evidence synthesis that considers variations in patient sub-populations,

and the dissemination of research findings with respect to the relative health outcomes,

clinical effectiveness, and appropriateness of the medical treatments, and services.

PCORI’s focus is on the application of EBM to specific healthcare
technologies and treatments to ascertain which, among alternative therapies
for a given medical condition, produce the best clinical outcomes. This specific
focus is known as comparative effectiveness research (CER). PCORI’s (2014)
CER agenda has five priorities:

• Assessing prevention, diagnosis, and treatment options
• Improving healthcare systems
• Communicating and disseminating research
• Addressing disparities across patient populations and the healthcare

required to achieve best outcomes in each population
• Accelerating patient-centered outcomes research and methodological

research

Healthcare Operat ions Management54

PCORI complements the work of the National Institutes of Health
and AHRQ—both part of the US Department of Health and Human Services
(HHS). One of AHRQ’s responsibilities is to assist users of health information
technology that is focused on clinical decision support to incorporate research
findings into clinical practices and to promote the technology’s ease of use. A
major focus for the research topics addressed by PCORI is related to chronic
disease management.

Tools to Expand the Use of Evidence-Based Medicine

Organizations that are outside the healthcare delivery system itself, such as pay-
ers and government, have used the increased acceptance of EBM as the basis
for new programs designed to encourage its implementation. These programs,
referred to as value purchasing, feature public reporting of clinical results and
pay-for-performance (P4P) elements to help third-party payers determine the
value delivered by healthcare providers.

Public Reporting
Although strongly resisted by clinicians for many years, public reporting
has come of age. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) now
reports the performance of hospitals, long-term care facilities, and medical
groups online at Hospital Compare (www.hospitalcompare.hhs.gov). Many
private health insurance plans also report performance and the prices charged
by providers in their networks to assist their plan members, particularly those
with consumer-directed health insurance products, in choosing how and from
whom they receive treatment or preventive care.

As with any growing field, a number of issues surround public report-
ing. The first and most prominent is risk adjustment. Most clinicians feel their
patients are “sicker” than average and that contemporary risk adjustment systems
do not adequately account for this factor in reimbursement. Patient compliance is
another challenging aspect of public reporting. If a doctor follows EBM guidelines
for diagnosis and treatment but the patient does not take her medication, for
example, the public reporting mechanism may trigger an unwarranted poor grade.

One anticipated impact of public reporting is that patients will use the
Internet to shop for quality healthcare products as they might for an automobile
or a television. Currently, however, few patients do so to guide their health-
care buying decisions. That said, clinical leaders do review the public reports
and target improvement efforts to areas where they have poor performance
compared to their peers.

AHRQ (2012) conducted a comprehensive review of the impact of
public reporting on the healthcare system. Select findings from its research
include the following:

Value purchasing
A system using
payment as a
means to reward
providers who
publicly report
results and achieve
high levels of
clinical care. Also
known as value-
based purchasing.

Public reporting
A statement of
healthcare quality
made by hospitals,
long-term care
facilities, and
clinics. May also
include patient
satisfaction and
provider charges.

Risk adjustment
Raising or lowering
fees paid to
providers on the
basis of factors
that may increase
medical costs,
such as age, sex,
or illness.

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 55

• Public reporting has a positive impact on mortality reduction and
specific clinical outcomes such as pain reduction, decreased pressure
ulcers, and increased patient satisfaction.

• Changes in the delivery structure were observed as a result of public
reporting, including the addition of new services, policy revisions,
departure of surgeons with poor outcomes, and increases in quality
improvement activities.

• Public reports seemed to have little to no impact on selection of
providers by patients and families or their representatives.

• Public reporting does have an impact in competitive markets, and
improvements are more likely to occur in the subgroup of providers
with low scores in initial public reports than for those with high or
moderate scores.

Pay for Performance and Payment Reform
Another logical tool to expand the use of EBM is the financing system. Many
buyers of healthcare are installing P4P systems to encourage providers to
deliver EBM care.

P4P Methods
In general, P4P systems add payments to the amount that would otherwise be
reimbursed to a provider. To obtain these additional payments, the provider
must demonstrate that he is delivering care that meets clinical EBM goals.
These clinical measures can be either process or outcome measures.

Although many providers prefer to be measured on outcomes, this
approach is difficult to use, as some outcomes need to be measured over many
years. In addition, some providers have a small number of patients in a particu-
lar clinical group, so outcome results can vary dramatically. Therefore, process
measures backed by extensive EBM literature are used to assess performance
in the treatment of many conditions. For example, a patient with diabetes
whose blood pressure is maintained in a normal range tends to experience
fewer complications than one whose blood pressure is uncontrolled. Blood
pressure can be measured and reported at every visit, whereas complications
occur infrequently.

In a study sponsored by the National Quality Forum, Schneider, Hussey,
and Schnyer (2011) surveyed the breadth of payment reform methods and
found nearly 100 implemented and proposed payment reform programs. They
then classified these methods into 11 payment reform models. Many of these
models are included in the ACA, and the goals for the reforms are illustrated
in exhibit 3.3.

Exhibit 3.4 lists and describes each model, and chapter 14 examines
how organizations can apply the operations management tools contained
throughout this book to succeed financially with any of these payment models.

Healthcare Operat ions Management56

Cost containment goals
• Reverse the fee-for-service

incentive to provide more services
• Provide incentives for efficiency
• Manage financial risk
• Align payment incentives to

support quality goals

Quality goals
• Increase or maintain appropriate

and necessary care
• Decrease inappropriate care
• Make care more responsive to

patients
• Promote safer care

Source: Schneider, Hussey, and Schnyer (2011).

EXHIBIT 3.3
General

Payment Reform
Model

Model Description

1. Global payment A single per-member per-month payment is made for services delivered to
a patient, with payment adjustments based on measured performance and
patient risk.

2. ACO shared sav-
ings program

Groups of providers (known as accountable care organizations [ACOs])
that voluntarily assume responsibility for the care of a population of
patients share payer savings if they meet quality and cost performance
benchmarks.

3. Medical home
payments

A physician practice or other provider is eligible to receive additional pay-
ment if medical home criteria are met. Payment may include calculations
based on quality and cost performance using a P4P-like mechanism.

4. Bundled
payment

A single bundled payment, which may include multiple providers in mul-
tiple care settings, is made for services delivered during an episode of care
related to a medical condition or procedure.

5. Hospital–physician
gainsharing

Hospitals are permitted to provide payments to physicians that represent a
share of savings resulting from collaborative efforts between the hospital
and physicians to improve quality and efficiency.

6. Payment for
coordination

Payments are made to providers furnishing care coordination services that
integrate care between providers.

7. Hospital P4P Hospitals receive differential payments for meeting or missing perfor-
mance benchmarks.

8. Payment
adjustment for
readmissions

Payments to hospitals are adjusted based on the rate of potentially avoid-
able readmissions.

9. Payment adjust-
ment for hos-
pital-acquired
conditions

Hospitals with high rates of hospital-acquired conditions are subject to a
payment penalty, or treatment of hospital-acquired conditions or serious
reportable events is not reimbursed.

10. Physician P4P Physicians receive differential payments for meeting or missing perfor-
mance benchmarks.

11. Payment for
shared decision
making

Payment is made for the provision of shared decision-making services.

Source: Schneider, Hussey, and Schnyer (2011).

EXHIBIT 3.4
Payment Reform

Model Details

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 57

Value-Based Purchasing1
The ACA calls for establishment of a value purchasing program on the basis of
much of the research, practical experience, and analysis in both public reporting
and P4P described in the previous section. (If portions of the ACA are repealed
or changed, value purchasing is likely to remain intact in some form because
it is so strongly supported by research.) Medicare’s Hospital VBP program is
CMS’s (2015) answer to that call. Forms of payment such as value purchasing,
as alternatives to the traditional fee-for-service (FFS) reimbursement scheme,
are accelerating, and soon the majority of financing systems for health services
in the United States will move completely from FFS to value purchasing.

Although FFS has served the health industry well for many years, poli-
cymakers have come to understand that perverse incentives accompany this
type of payment system. Insurer UnitedHealth Group’s UnitedHealth Center
for Health Reform & Modernization (2012) conducted a review of the many
studies on FFS and found three major problems:

• FFS encourages providers to deliver more, and more expensive, services
to maximize reimbursement.

• FFS facilitates fragmented and uncoordinated care delivery.
• FFS does not offer incentives for high-quality care.

These problems have been well known for many years, and policymak-
ers have searched for new payment models through Medicare demonstration
projects—many of which were included in the ACA. For example, the Medi-
care Shared Saving Program (§3022 of the ACA) was based on the Physician
Group Practice Demonstration (CMS 2011), and the Bundled Payments for
Care Improvement Initiative in the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innova-
tion (§3021) is based on the Acute Care Episode Demonstration (CMS 2016).

Today, alternative payment schemes are founded on one of two distinc-
tive methodologies: bundled payments for services or additional payments or
penalties for quality.

Medicare Value Purchasing
As mentioned earlier, the transition from FFS to value-based systems is accel-
erating. In 2015, then Secretary of HHS Sylvia Mathews Burwell announced,
“Our goal is for 30% of all Medicare provider payments to be in alternative
payment models that are tied to how well providers care for their patients,
instead of how much care they provide in 2016. Our goal would then be to
get to 50% by 2018.” The independent, not-for-profit organization Catalyst
for Payment Reform (2014), which evaluates payment systems throughout the
United States, found that the percentage of payments meeting its definition
of value-oriented payment methods had reached 40 percent for 2014—up
from 11 percent in 2013. This accelerated transformation is likely to continue.

Healthcare Operat ions Management58

Policy Issues in Value Purchasing
The rapid movement to value purchasing presents a number of policy issues.

Attribution, or Whose Patient Is This?
In a complex delivery system, the connection of one patient’s care outcomes
to a specific provider can be problematic. The Center for Healthcare Quality
& Payment Reform has identified a number of these types of issues (Miller
2014). The following are just a few examples:

• Patients who lack a primary care physician can cause distortions in
spending comparisons.

• As a function of EHR system structures, a physician can be assigned
accountability for services a patient received from another provider.

• The cost of caring for a patient with a preventable conditions may be
assigned to the physician treating the condition rather than the provider
who caused it.

Too Many Measures
The use of quality measures as the basis for payment is increasing the complexity
of the system. For example, the number of ways that quality is measured has
grown dramatically. In 2015, the Washington Post reported that 33 different
care programs in Medicare used a combined 1,676 reporting measures the
previous year (Millman 2015). A 2013 Health Affairs study of 23 commercial
health plans found 546 distinct quality measures—with very little overlap to
Medicare programs (Delbanco 2015).

Unintended Consequences
Complex systems can have unintended consequences. For example, in 2008
the ARRA provided significant funding to assist with the installation of EHRs
in hospitals and clinics. A clear aim of this policy was to enable providers to
track patients with chronic disease, improve their care, and reduce costs in the
system. However, as a consequence of more complete records arising from the
use of EHRs, hospitals received $1 billion more in Medicare reimbursements
in 2010 than they had five years earlier through improved billing of emergency
department coding alone, according to a New York Times analysis of Medicare
data (Abeslson, Creswell, and Palmers 2012). The article also notes that clinics
have similarly changed the way they bill for office visits, increasing their pay-
ments by billions of dollars. The consequence of increased Medicare billings
was not an aim of the ARRA.

Considering that history, value purchasing’s impact on the care system
will also likely produce outcomes that have not been anticipated by its architects.

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 59

Implications for Operations Management
One clear advantage of FFS was its clean lines of accountability for services—if
you provided the service, you got paid. Value purchasing breaks this link as, in
many cases, the service provider does not get paid directly. Hence, improved
operational structures need to be built to accommodate these payment systems.

Strategy Execution
The value purchasing environment leads to growth in the number of quality
improvement projects required to respond to the new incentive opportunities.
A useful management strategy is the blended balanced scorecard–strategy map-
ping approach developed by Kaplan and Norton (2001). This method converts
general strategies (e.g., reduce readmission rates) into specific projects (e.g.,
acquire predictive analytics capability), which are then connected in a strategy
map. Each project establishes metrics that then can be displayed as a scorecard.
This disciplined execution method is used by many large organizations both
inside and outside healthcare. The balanced scorecard methodology is outlined
in detail in chapter 4.

Improved Modeling and Analytics
The new environment requires more sophisticated systems of analysis than in
the past. While traditional accounting systems were adequate for the Medicare
FFS environment, much more detailed costing systems are now needed, such
as activity-based accounting. Patient behavior models were historically built
on groups (e.g., males over age 65) but now must be built with individual
predictive modeling capabilities. Modeling and analytics tools can be used to
finely align delivery system resources with patient needs. Analytics is addressed
in chapter 8, and activity-based accounting is covered in chapter 14.

Innovation Centers
The new value purchasing environment is also sparking creativity. Many health-
care organizations have launched innovation centers to coalesce creative energy
toward developing new approaches to care delivery. Innovation centers are
addressed in chapter 5.

Clinical Decision Support

One development in the use of guidelines is the spread of clinical decision sup-
port systems, which are now becoming a standard part of EHRs. As a clinician
accesses a specific patient’s medical record, the automated system provides
advice on recommended treatments and needed follow-up (see the Operations
Management in Action section at the beginning of this chapter).

Healthcare Operat ions Management60

Institute for Clinical Systems Improvement and High-Tech
Diagnostic Imaging
Clinical decision support can be applied across multiple EHR systems and need
not be vendor specific. The Institute for Clinical Systems Improvement (ICSI
2012), for example, undertook a project in 2007 to improve the appropriate
utilization of CT (computed tomography), MRI (magnetic resonance imaging),
PET (positron emission tomography), and nuclear cardiology diagnostic scans.

ICSI (2009) noted:

[The approach of those organizations we studied] consists of deploying a common

set of appropriateness criteria that would be:

• available in the physician’s office to provide clinical decision support at the

time care is being discussed with the patient and prior to ordering HTDI [high-

tech diagnostic imaging] tests

• embedded into an electronic medical record (EMR), or made available via a

Web site

• continually enriched and expanded for improved outcomes.

The ordering guidance screen is shown in exhibit 3.5.
The ICSI (2009) project analysis continues, noting:

[The simple 1 through 9 rating on] the level of diagnostic utility of the provider’s selec-

tion carries multiple benefits, offering guidance to ordering providers and supporting

shared decision making between providers and patients. For those organizations with

Provider sees appropriateness of test and higher utility options—opportunity to
engage patient.

Chest CT has marginal utility for clinical indications provided.

Alternate procedures to consider:

23456789

229
MRACTA

Indicated 7−9 Marginal 4−6 Low utility 1−3

MR

1

EXHIBIT 3.5
Decision

Support Process
Embedded

in Electronic
Health Record

Source: Copyright © 2011 Institute for Clinical Systems Improvement. Used with permission.

Note: CT = computed tomography; CTA = computed tomography angiography; MR = magnetic reso-
nance; MRA = magnetic resonance angiography.

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 61

full EHRs, the patient’s clinical information is loaded automatically into this system

which then makes its recommendation based on guidelines from the American Col-

lege of Radiology and the American College of Cardiology.

When a test of a value that is below 6 is ordered, additional information is

provided to the ordering physician, who may choose to continue and order the test

or switch to another. All payers in the system have agreed to make payments no

matter what level of test is ordered. In some cases the recommended test is, in fact,

more expensive than the test originally ordered.

The project has been successful in making appropriate recommenda-
tions to providers. Exhibit 3.6 shows the actual use of HTDI versus the trend
that would have been seen had the existing radiology management systems
remained in place.

As determined by ICSI (2010):

The summary of the benefits of this system over three years among five large medi-

cal groups is:

• $84 million savings based on reduction of HTDI scans against projected trend

line without decision-support

• 11,000 fewer administrative hours for just one medical group by having

electronic decision support accepted versus calling the radiology benefits

manager

• Decreased exposure to radiation—potentially preventing cancers

60

55

45

50

40

35

30
32.03

36.12

39.19
40.84

44.89
47.52

51.26

54.26
56.35

39.47

43.94

40.3040.2139.77

42.13
42.3942.54

38.09

State legislative
mandate for MN DHS

to address HTDI.

Pilot ends; medical groups
continue to use decision support.

Yearlong ICSI
decision support

pilot begins.
25

1Q
03

2Q
03

3Q
03

4Q
03

1Q
04

2Q
04

3Q
04

4Q
04

1Q
05

2Q
05

3Q
05

4Q
05

1Q
06

2Q
06

3Q
06

4Q
06

1Q
07

2Q
07

3Q
07

4Q
07

1Q
08

2Q
08

3Q
08

4Q
08

1Q
09

2Q
09

3Q
09

4Q
09

1Q
10

2Q
10

3Q
10

Aggregate Utilization per 1,000 Members

Projected utilization at 1Q03–2Q06 average rate of change
Projected utilization at 2Q06–3Q10 average rate of change
Actual utilization

Source: Copyright © 2011 Institute for Clinical Systems Improvement. Used with permission.

Note: 1Q03 = first quarter of 2003, 2Q03 = second quarter of 2003, etc.; ICSI = Institute for Clinical
Systems Improvement; MN DHS = Minnesota Department of Health Services.

EXHIBIT 3.6
Utilization
of High-Tech
Digital Imaging
(HTDI)—Actual
Versus Trend

Healthcare Operat ions Management62

The Future of Evidence-Based Medicine and Value
Purchasing

One challenge of the increasingly widespread use of EBM is the fact that it is
based on averages resulting from clinical studies of many patients. No specific
patient is ever completely average, and clinicians frequently vary from guidelines
to compensate for this difference. As described next, Optum Labs is a leading
example of how big data can be used to address this challenge.

The second major obstacle that arose with the increased use of EBM
relates to the clinicians themselves. What systems can be created to support
professionalism and fair compensation and yet encourage the use of the most
current and effective healthcare methods and technologies? A brief look at
physician compensation and process improvement later in this section helps
set the stage for answering this question, which we return to throughout the
remainder of the book.

Optum Labs
Very large databases are now being created to more fully research the impact
of EBM. Optum Labs is a partnership of Optum and the Mayo Clinic that, as
of 2016, included 19 additional industry partners. A key asset of Optum Labs
is its high-quality, integrated healthcare database, which contains deidentified
claims and clinical data for more than 150 million people, gathered from multiple
health plans and healthcare providers. The database also includes plan enrollment
information, medical and pharmacy claims, and lab results from multiple payers
that have been integrated across care settings and longitudinally linked at the
patient level. This database allows Optum Labs to perform fine-grained CER.

An Optum Labs Example: Diabetes
Wallace and colleagues (2014) offer an example of Optum Labs’ effectiveness
in diabetes management:

Metformin is consistently recommended as the initial intervention for patients newly

diagnosed with uncomplicated type 2 diabetes. However, there are a number of

choices for second-line medication treatment, including older sulfonylurea drugs

and newer oral agents plus insulin.

An observational study using the Optum Labs database that compared alter-

native medication management strategies across 37,501 patients showed similar

effects for all drugs in achieving glucose control, longevity, and overall quality of

life. However, the cost of this benefit was less in patients who were treated with

sulfonylureas. These drugs were also associated with a longer interval until insulin

was required than was the case when other oral agents were used. These findings

are being translated into potential revisions of guidelines used by care providers.

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 63

As the size and scope of these large databases increase, the ability to
perform highly detailed analysis will improve. These new studies will lead to ever
more precise evidence-based guidelines and accurate clinical effectiveness data.

Physician Compensation and Value Purchasing
A major emphasis of value purchasing is to change physician behavior through
payment systems. Physician compensation is a complex and frequently contro-
versial topic in healthcare organizations, and value purchasing alone will not
resolve this challenge. Because CMS and private payers continue to introduce
many new metrics and publicly reported quality measures, an organization
might be tempted to directly link physician payment to these metrics—this
linkage may actually be happening in some small practices.

However, in large systems, the number and complexity of the met-
rics and their relationship to all the supporting clinical systems render both
accountability and transparency difficult. A basic rule of compensation systems
is that the “line of sight” should be clear between a goal and a reward; value
purchasing does not allow line of sight to be achieved easily.

In a report created for the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, Zis-
mer and colleagues interviewed 15 senior leaders of integrated health systems on
reimbursement models and the alignment of incentives in physician compensation
(Zismer 2013). A key finding was that stability in provider compensation was a
major factor in retaining and recruiting physicians. Zismer comments that to bring
about such stability, payment systems must disconnect how the organization is
paid from how the physician is paid. Although quality outcomes are important,
many physicians in integrated systems have other obligations, such as treating
expanded panels of patients, managing mid-level practitioners, and teaming with
colleagues to manage the care of complex patients. Hence, compensation needs
to take into account payment for the many actual duties of physicians today.

A clear strategy outlined in the ACA is to encourage the formation of
systems of care. To respond effectively to value purchasing will take teams of
highly skilled clinicians and process improvement personnel working diligently
to meet the performance goals. The remaining chapters in this book provide
the tools for this ongoing journey.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System and Pay for
Performance

The leaders of VVH feel they have a number of opportunities to succeed with
the Medicare Hospital Value-Based Purchasing program. They begin by creating
a project team to improve the care of patients with pneumonia. The specific
measures the team targets for improvement are those delineated in the VBP:

Healthcare Operat ions Management64

• Pneumonia patients assessed and given pneumococcal vaccination
• Pneumonia patients whose initial emergency department blood culture

was performed prior to the administration of the first hospital dose of
antibiotics

• Pneumonia patients given smoking cessation advice and counseling
• Pneumonia patients given initial antibiotic(s) within six hours of arrival
• Pneumonia patients given the most appropriate initial antibiotic(s)
• Pneumonia patients assessed and given influenza vaccination

The operations management tools and approaches detailed in this book
were used to improve performance for each of these measures, culminating in
chapter 15, which describes how VVH accomplishes this goal.

Conclusion

The use of EBM to develop systems of care is becoming well accepted by most
clinicians. Clinical results are being made transparent and easily accessible to the
general public. Payers are implementing systems that reward value, and providers are
installing clinical decision support systems to help in their practices. The effective use
of EBM identifies high-performance healthcare organizations, and its widespread use
is a key to the provision of high-quality, cost-effective care throughout the world.

Discussion Questions

1. In addition to those mentioned in the chapter, what are some examples
of a care delivery setting offering a mix of standard and custom care?

2. Access the CMS Hospital Compare website and review three local
hospitals’ quality scores. At which hospital would you choose to receive
care, and why? Which hospital would you choose for your parents or
your children? Did your answers differ? Why or why not?

3. Review the 11 payment reform methodologies (exhibit 3.4) and rank
them on two scales: ability to improve quality and ability to reduce
healthcare inflation. Provide a rationale for your ranking.

4. What are three strategies to maximize P4P revenue?

Note

1. Portions of this section were adapted from McLaughlin (2015) with
permission from the American College of Healthcare Executives.

Chapter 3: Evidence-Based Medicine and Value-Based Purchasing 65

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PART

II
SETTING GOALS AND

EXECUTING STRATEGY

CHAPTER

71

STRATEGY AND THE BALANCED SCORECARD

Operations Management
in Action

The Malcolm Baldrige National Quality
Award is the nation’s highest honor for
innovation and performance excellence.
In 2008, Poudre Valley Health System
(PVHS) was one of three organiza-
tions to receive the award and the only
healthcare recipient, classifying it as
one of the best hospitals in the United
States. The Baldrige Award (see chap-
ter 2) judges evaluate each healthcare
applicant’s performance on a number of
dimensions: leadership; strategy; cus-
tomer focus; measurement, analysis,
and knowledge management; workforce
focus; operations; and results.

PVHS is particularly strong in its
use of the balanced scorecard to mea-
sure its performance and share best
practices among departments. The met-
rics PVHS uses to track its performance
are gathered from the following areas:

• Employee culture

• Market share

• Physician engagement

• Clinical outcomes

• Customer service and patient
satisfaction

• Financial performance

Winning the Baldrige Award
brings with it an expectation to share

4
OVE RVI EW

Most healthcare organizations have good strategic plans; what fre-

quently fails is their execution. This chapter demonstrates how the bal-

anced scorecard can be an effective tool to consistently move strategy

to execution. First, we examine traditional management systems and

explore their failures. Next, we review the theory behind the balanced

scorecard and strategy mapping and explain the tools’ application to

healthcare organizations. Practical steps to implement and maintain

a balanced scorecard system are provided, and detailed examples

from Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System (VVH) demonstrate

the application of these tools. The companion website to this book

contains templates and explanatory videos that can be used for stu-

dent exercises or to implement a balanced scorecard in a healthcare

organization. In addition, a case study on the website includes data

that can be used to develop a realistic dashboard.

This chapter gives readers a basic understanding of balanced

scorecards that enables them to

• explain how a balanced scorecard can be used to move strategy

to action,

• explain how to monitor strategy from the four stakeholder

perspectives,

• identify key initiatives to achieve a strategic objective,

• develop a strategy map that links relevant initiatives,

• identify and measure leading and lagging indicators for each

initiative,

• understand the use of business intelligence tools to extract data

for scorecards, and

• demonstrate the connection of value purchasing metrics to

strategy and execution.

On the web at ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Healthcare Operat ions Management72

the organization’s journey with the greater community. In accordance with this
obligation, PVHS established the Center for Performance Excellence to provide
consulting, coaching, and presentation services to other organizations pursuing
performance excellence. The Center’s consultants apply the lessons learned over
the past decade from the perspective of a Baldrige Award recipient.

Source: Nuwash (2010).

Moving Strategy to Execution
The Challenge of Execution
Environmental causes that are commonly cited for the failure to execute in
healthcare organizations include intense financial pressures, complex operating
structures, and cultures with multistakeholder leadership that resists change.
New and redefined relationships among healthcare providers—particularly
physicians, hospitals, and health plans—are accompanied by a rapid growth
in medical treatment knowledge and technology. Increased public scrutiny of
how healthcare is delivered is leading to an associated rise of consumer-directed
healthcare. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is also altering strategy significantly.

No matter how significant these external factors are, however, most
organizations founder on internal factors. Outram (2014) identifies a number
of internal issues that prevent effective strategy execution in industry at large:

• The leadership team does not understand the strategy.
• The leadership team is overconfident.
• The organization is incapable of moving with speed and pace.
• The organization focuses on short-term goals.
• The strategy is too diffuse—it has too many goals.
• The communication of strategy to the entire organization is poor.
• The strategy is not linked to organizational mission.
• Organizational leaders lack accountability.

These factors also plague healthcare organizations. To gain competi-
tive advantage from its operations, an organization needs an effective system
to move its strategies forward. The management systems of the past are poor
tools for today’s challenging environment.

The day-to-day world of a current healthcare leader is intense (exhibit
4.1). Because of ever-present communication technologies (smartphones,
e-mail, texts, blogs, social networks), managers float in a sea of inputs and
daily barriers.

Healthcare leaders often focus on urgent issues rather than strategy
execution. And although organizations can develop effective project managers

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 73

(as discussed in chapter 5), they fail to compete successfully if they do not place
the undertaken projects in a broader system of strategy implementation. The
balanced scorecard provides a framework and sophisticated mechanisms to
move from strategy to execution.

Why Do Today’s Management Tools Fail?
Historically, most organizations have been managed with three primary tools:
strategic plans, operational reports, and financial reports. Exhibit 4.2 shows the
relationships among these tools. In this traditional system, the first step is to
create a strategic plan, which is usually updated annually. Next, a budget and
operations or project plan is created. The operations plan is sometimes referred to
as the tactical plan; it provides a detailed level of task descriptions with timelines
and expected outcomes. The organization’s performance is monitored by senior

Balanced
scorecard
A system of
strategy links
and reporting
mechanisms that
supports effective
strategy execution.

What’s on your
desk today?

Public reporting
of quality and

costs

Financial
pressure

Today’s urgent
operating
problem This year’s new

initiatives

Meetings, work/private
e-mail, texts, and social

media

Employee
turnover—recruiting

Last year’s
initiative

EXHIBIT 4.1
The Complex
World of Today’s
Healthcare
Leader

Operating
statistics

Strategic
plan

Operations

Management
control

Financial
results

EXHIBIT 4.2
The Traditional
Theory of
Management

Healthcare Operat ions Management74

management through the financial and operational reports. Finally, if deviations
from expected performance are encountered, managers take corrective action.

Although theoretically easy to grasp, this management system frequently
fails for a number of reasons. Organizations are awash in operating data, and
they make no effort to identify key metrics. The strategic plans, financial reports,
and operational reports are all created by different departments, and each report
is reviewed in different time frames, often by different managers. Finally, none
of the reports connect with the others.

These are the root causes of poor execution. If strategies are not linked
to action items, operations do not change, nor do the financial results. In addi-
tion, strategic plans frequently are not linked to departmental or individual
goals and, therefore, simply reside on a shelf in the executive suite.

Many strategic plans contain a logic hole, meaning they lack an explana-
tion of how accomplishing a strategic objective provides a specific financial or
operational outcome. Consider the following example.

• Strategic objective: to increase the use of evidence-based medicine
(EBM)

• Expected outcome: increased patient satisfaction

Although this proposition may seem reasonable on the surface, the
logic behind connecting the use of EBM to patient satisfaction is unclear. In
fact, patient satisfaction may decrease if providers constantly counsel patients
on personal lifestyle issues (e.g., “Will you stop smoking?” “You need to lose
weight”); the providers are meeting EBM guidelines, but their patients might
see these efforts as bullying or offensive behavior.

The time frame of strategy execution also tends to be problematic. Finan-
cial reports are generally timely and accurate but only reflect the current reporting
period. A review of these reports does not encourage the long-term strategic
allocation of resources (e.g., a major capital expenditure) that may require
multiple-year investments. A positive current-month financial outcome is likely
the outcome of an action that occurred many months in the past. The cumulative
result of these timing problems is poor execution, leading to poor outcomes.

Balance
The key element of the balanced scorecard is, of course, balance. An organiza-
tion can be viewed from many perspectives; to allow a standardized approach,
the balanced scorecard methodology uses four common perspectives from
which an organization examines its operations (exhibit 4.3):

• Financial stakeholders
• Customers

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 75

• Internal process and innovation (operations)
• Employee learning and growth

Because an organization is viewed from each perspective, different mea-
sures of performance are important. Every perspective in a complete balanced
scorecard contains a set of objectives, metrics, targets, and actions. Each mea-
sure in each perspective must be linked to the organization’s overall strategy.

The indicators that characterize performance in each of the four per-
spectives must be both leading (predicting the future) and lagging (reporting
on performance today). Indicators must also be obtained from both inside the
organization and the external environment.

Although many think of the balanced scorecard as a reporting tech-
nique, its true power lies in its ability to link strategy to action. Balanced
scorecard practitioners develop strategy maps that connect projects and actions
to outcomes in a series of road map–type graphics. These maps display the
“theory of the company” and can be evaluated and fine-tuned as strategies
are implemented.

The Balanced Scorecard in Healthcare

The balanced scorecard and its variations have been adopted by leading health-
care organizations.

In 2012, Bob McDonald reviewed the use of the balanced scorecard in
healthcare and found 87 published studies of healthcare organizations that are
effectively using scorecards to improve their competitive marketing position,
financial results, and customer satisfaction.

Operations
and

strategic
plan

Financial
stakeholders

EmployeesOperations

Customers

EXHIBIT 4.3
The Four
Perspectives in
the Balanced
Scorecard

Healthcare Operat ions Management76

In this study, he found a number of common success factors in the
implementation of balanced scorecards (McDonald 2012):

• Senior management support

• Central involvement of clinicians and some flexibility at lower levels

• Demonstration of empirical benefits

• Cascading [of the balanced scorecard] to lower levels

• Ongoing communication with all staff

• Regular management review and monitoring

• Supporting information technology for monitoring and reporting performance

The Balanced Scorecard as Part of a Strategic
Management System

Although it does not substitute for a complete strategic management system,
the balanced scorecard is a key component in such a system and an effective tool
for moving an organization’s strategy and vision into action. The development
of a balanced scorecard leads to the clarification of strategy, and it communi-
cates and links strategic measures throughout an organization. Organizational
leaders can plan projects, set targets, and align strategic initiatives during the
creation of the balanced scorecard. If used properly, the balanced scorecard
can also enhance strategic feedback and learning.

Elements of the Balanced Scorecard System

A complete balanced scorecard system has the following elements, which are
explained in detail in the subsequent sections:

• Organizational mission and vision, and their relationship to strategy
• Perspectives

– Financial
– Customer
– Internal business process
– Learning and growing

• Strategic alignment—linking balanced scorecard measures to strategy
• Strategy maps
• Implementation of the balanced scorecard, including processes for

identifying targets, resources, initiatives, and budgets
• Feedback and the strategic learning process—making sure the balanced

scorecard works

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 77

Mission and Vision
The balanced scorecard system presupposes that an organization has an effective
mission, vision, and strategy in place. For example, the mission of VVH is “to
provide high-quality, cost-effective healthcare to our community.” Its vision
is, “Within five years, we will be financially sound and will be considered the
place to receive high-quality care by the majority of the residents of our com-
munity.” To accomplish this vision, VVH has identified six specific strategies:

• Recruit five new primary care physicians.
• Implement the healthcare home model (also referred to as patient-

centered medical home; see chapter 3).
• Expand the VVH accountable care organization.
• Increase the volume of obstetric care.
• Renegotiate health plan contracts to include performance incentives for

improved chronic disease management.
• Improve emergency department (ED) operations and patient

satisfaction.

The VVH example is used throughout this chapter to demonstrate
the use of the balanced scorecard. The two strategies examined in depth are
increasing the volume of obstetric care and improving ED operations and
patient satisfaction.

With an effective strategic plan in place, the next step is to evaluate the
plan’s implementation as viewed from each of the four perspectives (financial,
customer, operational, and learning and growing). Placing a perspective at the
top of a balanced scorecard strategy map means that results in this perspective
include the final outcomes desired by an organization. In most organiza-
tions, the financial view is the top-most perspective. Therefore, the initiatives
undertaken in the other three perspectives should result in positive financial
performance for the organization.

“No margin, no mission” is still a valid assessment for nonprofit health-
care organizations. They need operating margins to provide financial stability
and capital. However, some organizations prefer to position the customer
(patient) as the top perspective. In that case, the initiatives undertaken in the
other three perspectives are intended to result in positive patient outcomes.
(Modifications to the classic balanced scorecard are discussed at the end of
this chapter.)

Perspectives
Financial Perspective
Viewed from the financial perspective, the customer, operational, and learn-
ing and growing perspectives and their associated initiatives should lead to
outstanding financial performance.

Healthcare Operat ions Management78

Although the focus of this book is not directly on healthcare finance,
some general strategies should always be under consideration by a hospital or
health system.

If the organization is in a growth mode, its financial focus should be
placed on increasing revenue to accommodate this growth. If it is operating
in a relatively stable environment, the organization may choose to emphasize
profitability. If the organization is both stable and profitable, the focus can
shift to investment—in both physical assets and human capital. Another major
strategy in the financial domain is the diversification of both revenues and
expenditures to minimize financial risk.

Exhibit 4.4 lists many common metrics used to measure performance
from the financial perspective.

Customer Perspective and Market Segmentation
The second perspective is to view an organization’s operations from the cus-
tomer’s point of view. In most healthcare operations, the customer is the patient.
Integrated health organizations, however, may operate insurance programs and
health plans; some of their customers, then, are employers or the government.

Health insurance exchanges are a new vehicle to connect insurance
companies directly with customers. Many hospitals and clinics also consider

• Percent of budget—revenue

• Percent of budget—expense

• Days in accounts receivable

• Days of cash on hand

• Collection rate

• Return on assets

• Expense per relative value unit

• Cost per surgical case

• Case-mix index

• Payer mix

• Growth, revenue, expense, and profit—product line

• Growth, revenue, expense, and profit—department

• Growth of revenue from value purchasing payments

• Growth in members and profitability of accountable care organization

• Growth, revenue, and cost per adjusted patient day

• Growth, revenue, and cost per physician full-time equivalent

• Price competitiveness on selected services

• Research grant revenue

EXHIBIT 4.4
Metrics of

Performance
from the
Financial

Perspective

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 79

their community at large to be the customer. Finally, the physician is seen as
the customer in many hospital organizations.

Once the general customers are identified, a helpful step is to segment
them into smaller groups and determine the value proposition that will be
delivered to each. Examples of market segments are patients with chronic ill-
nesses (e.g., diabetes, congestive heart failure); patients seeking obstetric care,
sports medicine services, cancer care, or emergency care; Medicaid patients;
small employers; and referring primary care physicians.

Customer Measures
Once market segments have been determined, a number of traditional mea-
sures of marketplace performance may be applied, the most prominent being
market share. Customers should be individually tracked and measured in terms
of both retention and acquisition, as retaining an existing customer is always
easier than attracting a new one. Customer satisfaction and profitability are also
useful measures. Exhibit 4.5 displays a number of common customer metrics.

Customers: The Value Proposition
Organizations create value to retain current customers and attract new ones.
Each market segment may require products to have different attributes to

Value proposition
A marketing term
summarizing
the relative cost,
features, and
quality of a service
or good.

• Patient care volumes
– By service, type, and physician
– Turnover—new patients and those exiting the system

• Physician
– Referral and admission rates
– Satisfaction
– Availability of resources (e.g., operating suite time)

• Market share by product line

• Clinical measures
– Readmission rates
– Complication rates
– Compliance with evidence-based guidelines
– Medical errors

• Customer service
– Patient satisfaction
– Waiting time
– Cleanliness, ambience
– Ease of navigation
– Parking
– Billing complaints

• Reputation

• Price comparisons relative to competitors

EXHIBIT 4.5
Metrics of
Performance
from the
Customer
Perspective

Healthcare Operat ions Management80

maximize that segment’s particular value proposition. For example, the orga-
nization may seek to be a price leader for outpatient imaging, as some patients
will pay for this service via a healthcare savings account. For another seg-
ment—emergency services, for example—speed of delivery may be critical.
The personal relationship of provider to patient may be important in primary
care but not as important in anesthesiology.

Image and reputation are particularly strong influences in consumer
behavior and can be competitive advantages for specialty healthcare services.
Taking care to understand the value proposition in an organization can lead
to the development of effective metrics and strategy maps in the balanced
scorecard system.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System’s Value Proposition
VVH has developed a value proposition for its obstetric services. Its market
segment is pregnant women aged 18 to 35. VVH believes the product attri-
butes for this market should be

• quick access to care;
• warm and welcoming facilities;
• customer interactions characterized by strong and personal relationships

with nurses, midwives, and doctors; and
• an image of high-quality care that is supported by an excellent system

for referrals and air transport for high-risk deliveries.

VVH has determined the following metrics to measure each attribute:

• The time from arrival to care in the obstetric suite
• A patient survey of facility attributes
• A patient survey of satisfaction with staff
• The percentage of high-risk newborns referred and transported, and the

clinical outcomes of these patients

The main value proposition for emergency care has been identified as
reduced waiting time. Following internal studies, competitive benchmarking,
and patient focus groups, VVH has determined that its goal is to have fewer
than 10 percent of its ED patients wait more than 30 minutes for care.

Internal Business Process Perspective
The third perspective in the balanced scorecard is internal business processes or
operations—the primary focus of this book. The internal business process
perspective has three major components: innovation, ongoing process improve-
ment, and post-sale service.

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 81

Innovation
Any well-functioning healthcare organization has in place a purposeful innova-
tion process. However, many hospitals and health systems today do not, and they
can only be characterized as reactionary. They simply respond to—rather than
anticipate—new reimbursement rules, government mandates, or technologies
introduced through the medical staff. Bringing thoughtful innovation into the
life cycle is one of the most pressing challenges contemporary organizations face.

The first step in an organized innovation process is to identify a potential
market segment. Then, two primary questions must be answered: (1) What
benefits will customers value in tomorrow’s market? (2) How can the orga-
nization innovate to deliver those benefits? Once these questions have been
researched and answered, related products can be created.

Quality function deployment (chapter 9) can be a useful tool for new
product or service development. If a new service is on the clinical leading edge,
it may require additional research and testing. A more mainstream service calls
for competitor research and review of the clinical literature. The principles of
project management (chapter 5) should be used throughout this process until
the new service is operational and stable. The process of innovation and design
thinking is explored in more depth in chapter 5.

Standard innovation measures used in many industries outside healthcare
include percentage of total sales resulting from new products and proprietary
products, number of new product introductions per year, time to develop new
products, and time to break even.

Healthcare operations tend toward stability (bordering on being rigid),
and therefore, a major challenge is simply ensuring that all clinical staff use the
latest and most effective diagnostic and treatment methodologies. However,
with the passage of the ACA, those organizations with a well-functioning
product development process have a clear competitive advantage.

Ongoing Process Improvement
The case for process improvement and operations excellence is made throughout
this book. The project management system (chapter 5) and process improve-
ment tools (chapters 6 through 11) are key to these activities. The strategic
effect of process improvement and maintaining gains is discussed in chapter 15.

Post-sale Service
The final aspect of the operations perspective is the post-sales area, an element
that is poorly executed in most healthcare delivery organizations. Sadly, the
most common post-sale contact with a patient may be an undecipherable or
incorrect bill.

Good post-service systems provide patients with follow-up information
on the service they received. Patients with chronic diseases should be contacted
periodically with reminders on diet, medication use, and the need to schedule

Healthcare Operat ions Management82

follow-up visits. An outstanding post-sale system also finds opportunities for
improvement in the service as well as possible innovations for the future.
Open-ended survey questions such as, “From your perspective, how could our
organization improve?” or “How else can we serve your healthcare needs?”
can point to opportunities for improvement and innovation. Exhibit 4.6 lists
common metrics used to measure operational performance.

External Operational Metrics Today and into the Future
We pause in our discussion of the elements of the strategic plan to revisit value
purchasing, specifically in terms of its influence on the business process perspec-
tive. Value purchasing (or value-based purchasing, as it is often referred to)
emphasizes meeting external goals and benchmarks. This emphasis complicates
strategy maps; the metrics from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
(CMS) alone number more than 1,700 (IOM 2015).

In 2019, CMS will implement the Merit-Based Incentive Payment Sys-
tem (MIPS) for physician compensation. As discussed in chapter 3, because
MIPS introduces many new metrics and publicly reported quality measures,
organizations might be tempted to develop a strategy that directly links physician

• Average length of stay—case-mix adjusted

• Full-time equivalent (FTE)/adjusted patient day

• FTE/diagnosis-related group

• FTE/relative value unit

• FTE/clinic visit

• Waiting time inside clinical systems

• Access time to appointments

• Percent value-added time

• Utilization of resources (e.g., operating room, imaging suite)

• Patients leaving emergency department without being seen

• Operating room cancellations

• Admitting process performance

• Billing system performance

• Medication errors

• Nosocomial infections

• Measures from external agencies: The Joint Commission (2016), the
National Quality Forum (2016), and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid
Services (2016).

• National Quality Forum (2002) “never events”

EXHIBIT 4.6
Metrics of

Performance
from the

Operational
Perspective

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 83

payment to MIPS metrics (which may already be happening in some small
practices).

The proliferation of metrics might also tempt an organization to develop
overly complex scorecards. These data visualizations are not a substitute for a
disciplined strategy featuring a strategy map that can be communicated to the
entire organization and effectively executed.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Internal Business Processes
VVH is executing four major projects to move its birthing center and ED
strategies forward. The birthing center projects include remodeling and redeco-
rating labor and delivery suites, contracting with a regional health system for
emergency transport of high-risk deliveries, and introducing predelivery tours
of labor and delivery facilities by nursing staff. The ED project is to execute a
Lean analysis and kaizen event to improve patient flow.

Learning and Growing Perspective
The final perspective from which to view an organization is employee learning
and growth. To effectively execute a strategy, employees must be motivated and
have the necessary tools to succeed. Therefore, a high-performing organization
makes substantial investments in this aspect of its operations. Kaplan and Norton
(1996) identified three critical aspects of learning and growing: employee skills
and abilities, necessary information technology (IT), and employee motivation.

Employee Skills and Abilities
Although employees in healthcare usually come to their jobs with general
training in their technical field, continuous updating of skills is necessary.
Some healthcare organizations are effective in ensuring that clinical skills are
updated but neglect training in other vital processes (e.g., purchasing systems,
organization-wide strategies). A good measure of the attention paid to this
area is the number of classes conducted by the organization (or an outside
education vendor) for the staff. Another important measure is the breadth of

Kaizen and Kaizen Events
Kaizen is the Japanese term for “change for the better,” or continuous
improvement. Kaizen has become the vehicle by which Lean systems make
changes and improve. The philosophy of kaizen involves all employees in
making suggestions for improvement, then implementing those suggestions
quickly. It is based on the assumptions that everything can be improved and
that many small incremental changes result in an enhanced system.

A kaizen event, sometimes referred to as a rapid process improvement
workshop, is a focused, short-term project aimed at improving a particular
process.

Healthcare Operat ions Management84

employee occupations attending these classes. Do all employees—from doctors
to housekeepers—attend organization-wide training?

Necessary IT
Most healthcare workers are considered knowledge workers. They primarily
use thinking to accomplish the goals of their profession, as opposed to physical
labor. The more immediately and conveniently they can obtain information,
the more effectively they can perform their jobs. Facilitative IT is one key to
this ability.

Process redesign projects frequently use IT as a resource for automa-
tion and information retrieval. Measures of automation include the number of
employees having easy access to IT systems, the percentage of individual jobs
that have an automation component, and the speed of installation of new IT
capabilities. The use of data and analytics is explored in depth in chapter 8.

Employee Motivation
A progressive culture and motivated employees are clearly competitive advan-
tages; therefore, the organization must monitor these areas with some frequency.
Measures of employee satisfaction include the following:

• Level of involvement in decision making
• Recognition for doing a good job
• Amount of access to information
• Level of encouragement of creativity and initiative
• Support for staff-level functions
• Overall satisfaction with the organization
• Turnover rate
• Absenteeism rate
• Training hours per employee

Data for many of these measures are typically collected through employee
surveys.

These three aspects of learning and growing—employee skills, IT, and
motivation—all contribute to employee satisfaction. A satisfied employee is
productive and tends to remain with the organization. Employee satisfaction,
productivity, and loyalty make outstanding organizational performance possible.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Learns and Grows
VVH realizes its employees need new skills to successfully execute some of its
projects, so it has engaged training firms to provide classes for all staff. Exhibit
4.7 illustrates this undertaking for improvement.

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 85

Strategic Alignment: Linking Measures to Strategy
Once expected objectives and their related measures are determined for each
perspective, the initiatives to meet these goals must be developed. An initiative can
be a simple action or a large project. Regardless of its scale, each initiative must
be logically linked to the desired outcome through a series of cause-and-effect
statements. These are usually constructed as “if–then” statements that tie initia-
tives together and contribute to the outcome, as with the following examples:

• If the wait time in the ED is decreased, then the patient will be more
satisfied.

• If an admitting process is improved through the use of automation,
then the final collection rate will improve.

• If an optically scanned wristband is used in conjunction with an
electronic health record, then medication errors will decline.

• If a discharge summary is routinely dictated and transmitted to
the primary care provider within 24 hours, then the number of
readmissions within 30 days will decrease.

Each initiative should have measures associated with it, and every measure
selected for a balanced scorecard should be an element in a chain of cause–effect
relationships that communicates the organization’s strategy.

Outcomes and Performance Drivers
Selecting appropriate measures for each initiative is critical. Measures can be
categorized into two basic types of indicators. Outcome indicators, familiar
to most managers, are also termed lagging indicators because they result
from earlier actions. Outcome indicators tend to be generic instead of tightly
focused. Healthcare operations examples include profitability, market share,
and patient satisfaction. The other type of indicator is a performance driver, or

Lagging indicator
A performance
measurement
that assesses
the outcome of
existing actions.

Project Employees Involved Training

Begin predelivery tours
of labor and delivery
facilities by nursing
staff

Obstetric nursing and
support staff

Customer service and
sales

Execute a Lean analysis
and kaizen event to
improve patient flow
in the emergency
department

Managers and key
clinicians in the
emergency department

Lean tools (chapter 10)

EXHIBIT 4.7
VVH
Improvement
Projects and
Associated
Training

Healthcare Operat ions Management86

leading indicator. These indicators predict the future and are specific to an
initiative and the organization’s strategy. One example of a performance driver
is waiting time in the ED. A drop in waiting time should predict an improve-
ment in a related outcome indicator, such as patient satisfaction.

A common pitfall in developing indicators is the use of measures associ-
ated with the improvement project rather than with the process improvement.
For example, the fact that a project to improve patient flow in a department is 88
percent complete is a less adequate indicator than a measure of the actual change
in patient flow, a 12 percent reduction in waiting time. Outcome measures are
always preferred, but in some cases they may be difficult or impossible to obtain.

Because the number of balanced scorecard measures should be lim-
ited—ideally to fewer than 20—identifying measures that are indicators for a
complex process is sometimes useful. For example, a seemingly simple indicator
such as time to next appointment for patient scheduling actually tracks many
complex processes in an organization.

Strategy Maps
As discussed, a set of initiatives should be linked together by if–then statements
to achieve a desired outcome. Both outcome and performance driver indicators
should be determined for each initiative. These can be displayed graphically in
a strategy map, which may be most helpfully organized into the four perspec-
tives, where learning and growing is positioned at the bottom and financial
resides at the top. A general strategy map for any organization includes the
following conditional statements:

• If employees have skills, tools, and motivation, then they will improve
operations.

• If operations and marketing efforts are improved, then customers will
buy more products and services.

• If customers buy more products and services and operations are run
efficiently, then the organization’s financial performance will improve.

Exhibit 4.8 shows a strategy map in which these general initiatives are
indicated.

The strategy map is enhanced if each initiative also contains the strategic
objective, measure used, and results that the organization hopes to achieve
(targets). Each causal pathway from initiative to initiative needs to be as clear
and quantitative as possible.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Strategy Maps
VVH has two major areas of strategic focus—the birthing center and the ED.
Exhibit 4.9 displays the strategy map for the birthing center.

Leading indicator
A performance
measurement that
predicts the future
and is specific to
an initiative or
organizational
strategy. Also
called performance
driver.

Strategy map
A set of initiatives
that are graphically
linked by if–then
statements to
describe an
organization’s
strategy.

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 87

Improve
marketing and
customer
service

Improve
financial results

Improve
operations

Provide employees
with skills, tools, and
motivation

Learning
and

Growing

Business
Processes

Customers

Financial

EXHIBIT 4.8
General
Strategy Map

Learning
and

Growing

Business
Processes

Customers

Financial
Increase net revenue
of obstetric product line
Goal = 10%

Measure market share
Goal = 5% increase

Measure patient satisfaction
(facilities)
Goal

^

90% satisfaction

Remodel obstetric suite
Goal = complete by
November 1

Measure patient satisfaction
(perceived clinical quality)
Goal

^

90% satisfaction

Contract for emergency
transportation
Goal = 10 runs/month

Measure patient satisfaction
(high touch)
Goal

^

90% satisfaction

Begin tours and survey
Goal = patient
satisfaction

^

90%

Customer service training
Goal = 90% average
passing score

EXHIBIT 4.9
VVH Birthing
Center Strategy
Map

Healthcare Operat ions Management88

Recall that VVH has decided to execute three major projects in this area.
Other initiatives needed for the successful execution of each project are identi-
fied on the map. For instance, for nursing staff to successfully lead expectant
mothers on tours of labor and delivery suites, the staff must participate in a
customer service training program. After the tours begin, the birthing center
will measure potential patients’ satisfaction to ensure that the tours are being
conducted effectively.

After patients deliver their babies in VVH’s obstetric unit, they will again
be surveyed on their experience, with special questions on the effect of each
major project. These leading satisfaction indicators should predict the lagging
indicators of increased market share and net revenue.

The second major strategy for VVH is to improve patient flow in the
ED. Exhibit 4.10 shows the strategy map for the department.

The first required steps in this strategy are forming a project team (chap-
ter 5) and learning how to use Lean process improvement tools (chapter 10).
Then the team can begin analyzing patient flow and implementing changes to
improve flow. VVH has set a goal of reducing the amount of non-value-added
time by 30 percent. From the time this goal is first met, waiting time for 90
percent of patients should not exceed 30 minutes. A reduced waiting time should
result in patients being more satisfied and, hence, a growth in market share and
increased net revenue. Following are more formal cause-and-effect statements:

Measure patient
wait time
Goal ^ 30 minutes

Measure patient share
Goal = 5% increase

Increase net revenue of
emergency department
production line
Goal = 10%

Conduct project on patient flow and
make changes
Goal = value stream increased by 30%

Learn Lean process
improvement tools
Goal = complete by
December 1

Learning
and

Growing

Business
Processes

Customers

Financial

EXHIBIT 4.10
VVH Emergency

Department
Strategy Map

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 89

• If ED staff undertake educational activities to learn project management
and Lean, then they can effectively execute a patient flow improvement
project.

• If a patient flow project is undertaken and non-value-added time is
reduced by 30 percent, then the waiting time for 90 percent of the
patients should never exceed 30 minutes.

• If the waiting time for most patients never exceeds 30 minutes, then
they will be highly satisfied, and this satisfaction will increase the
number of patients and VVH’s market share.

• If the ED market share increases, then net revenue will increase.

The book’s companion website contains a
downloadable strategy map and linked scorecard. It
also includes a number of videos that demonstrate
how to use and modify these tools for both student
and practitioner use.

Implementation of the Balanced Scorecard
Linking and Communicating
The balanced scorecard can be used at many different levels in an organization.
However, departmental scorecards should link to the divisional, and ultimately
the corporate, level. Each scorecard should be linked upward and downward.
For example, an obstetric initiative to increase revenue from normal childbirths
should be linked to the corporate-level objective of overall increased revenue.

Sometimes, specific linkages are difficult to establish between a depart-
mental strategy map and corporate objectives. In these cases, the department
head must derive a more general link by stating how a departmental initiative
will influence a particular corporate goal. For example, improving the quality
of the hospital laboratory testing system generally affects the corporate objec-
tive that patients should perceive that the hospital provides the highest level
of quality care.

The development and operation of scorecards at each level of an orga-
nization require disciplined communication, which can be an incentive for
action. Balanced scorecards can also be used to communicate with an organiza-
tion’s external stakeholders. A well-implemented balanced scorecard system is
integrated with individual employee goals and the organization’s performance
management system.

Targets, Resources, Initiatives, and Budgets
As demonstrated in this chapter, a balanced scorecard strategy map consists
of a series of linked initiatives, and each initiative should have a quantitative
measure and a target. Initiatives can reside in one department, but they are

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Healthcare Operat ions Management90

frequently cross-departmental. Many initiatives are projects, and the process
for successful project management (chapter 5) should be followed.

A well-implemented balanced scorecard also links carefully to an organi-
zation’s budget, particularly if initiatives and projects are expected to consume
considerable operating or capital resources.

The use of the balanced scorecard does not obviate the need for addi-
tional operating statistics. Many other operating and financial measures still
must be collected and analyzed. If the performance of any of these measures
deviates substantially from its target, a new strategy and initiative may be needed.
For example, most healthcare organizations carefully track and monitor their
accounts receivable. If this financial measure is within industry norms, it prob-
ably will not appear on an organization’s balanced scorecard. However, if the
accounts receivable balance drifts over time and begins to exceed expectations,
a balanced scorecard initiative may be started to address the problem.

Displaying Results
The actual scorecard tracks and communicates the results of each initiative.
(Chapter 7 provides several examples of visual displays.) A challenge for most
organizations is to collect the data to display in the scorecard. Because the
scorecard should include fewer than 20 measures, a simple solution is to assign
this responsibility to one individual who develops efficient methods to collect
the data and determines effective methods by which to display them. A more
robust solution is to develop a data warehouse with associated analysis and
reporting tools (see exhibit 4.11).

Does the Balanced Scorecard Work? Feedback and Strategic
Learning
Once a balanced scorecard system is created, it must be monitored closely.
Management teams should divide their routine meetings into three types:
operational reviews, strategy reviews, and strategy testing and adaptation. The
operational meeting is held frequently (e.g., weekly) and is designed to respond
to short-term problems and promote improvements. The strategy review meet-
ing is held monthly and focuses on monitoring and fine-tuning the existing
strategy map. The strategy testing and adaptation meeting should be held at
least annually—more frequently if the business environment is changing rapidly.
These meetings are designed to improve or transform the existing strategy,
develop new initiatives and revise maps, and authorize needed expenditures.

The explicit purpose of the balanced scorecard is to ensure the success-
ful execution of an organization’s strategy. But what if it does not achieve the
desired results? Two possible causes can be at play.

The first, most obvious, problem is that an initiative itself is not achiev-
ing its targeted results. For example, the ED’s patient flow project may not
be able to decrease non-valued-added time by 30 percent. In that case, the

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 91

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%

100%
102%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Net revenue

Patient
satisfaction

Increase in
admissions

Customer service
training tests

Profit

FT admission (%)

Cost/unit

Six Sigma
training tests

YTD

Actual 2,877,842

Goal 3,266,667

YTD

Actual 88%

Goal 90%

YTD

Actual 83

Goal 100

YTD

Actual 94%

Goal 90%

YTD

Actual 3.2%

Goal 3.0%

YTD

Actual 16%

Goal 30%

YTD

Actual 134

Goal 115

YTD

Actual 86%

Goal 90%

Note: Download this scorecard from the book’s companion website at ache.org/books/
OpsManagement3. FT = full time; YTD = year to date.

EXHIBIT 4.11
Balanced
Scorecard
Template

Healthcare Operat ions Management92

hospital may need to add an initiative, such as engaging a consultant. This
measure must be carefully monitored and frequently posted on the scorecard.

The second, more complex, problem occurs when the successful execu-
tion of an initiative does not lead to achievement of the next linked target. For
example, although waiting times in the ED decrease, the department does not
gain market share. The first step in solving this problem is to reconsider the
cause-and-effect relationships.

An organization should review its results and strategy map at least quar-
terly and revise its strategy annually, usually as part of the budgeting process.

Modifications of the Classic Balanced Scorecard
The balanced scorecard has been modified by many healthcare organizations,
most commonly by placing the customer or patient at the top of the strategy
map (exhibit 4.12). Finance then becomes a means to achieve superior patient
outcomes and satisfaction.

Implementation Issues
Two common challenges arise when implementing balanced scorecards: (1)
determination and development of metrics, and (2) initiative prioritization.

The balanced scorecard is a quantitative tool and, as such, requires
data systems that generate timely information for inclusion. Each initiative on

Improve
operations

Improve patient
results and
satisfaction

Improve availability
of financial resources

Provide employees
with skills, tools, and
motivation

Learning
and

Growing

Business
Processes

Customers

Financial

EXHIBIT 4.12
Inverted
General

Strategy Map

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 93

a strategy map should have quantitative measures, which should represent an
even mix of leading and lagging indicators. Each initiative should have a target
as well. However, setting targets is an art: Too timid a goal does not move
the organization forward, and too aggressive a goal is discouraging for staff.

A number of sources should be used to construct targets. They include
internal company operating data, executive interviews, internal and external
strategic assessments, customer research, industry averages, and benchmarking
data. Targets can be incremental on the basis of current operating results (e.g.,
increase productivity in a nursing unit by 10 percent in the next 12 months), or
they can be “stretch goals,” which are possible to achieve but require extraor-
dinary effort (e.g., improve compliance with evidence-based guidelines for 98
percent of patients with diabetes). Including too many measures and initiatives
renders a scorecard confusing; therefore, even the most sophisticated organiza-
tions limit their measures to 20 or fewer.

Achieving perfect alignment with a balanced scorecard’s goals for all of
an organization’s initiatives is difficult. However, the closer the alignment, the
more likely the organization’s strategic objectives will be achieved.

Conclusion

This text is about how to get things done. The balanced scorecard with strategy
mapping provides a powerful tool toward that end because it

• links strategy to action in the form of initiatives;
• provides a comprehensive communication tool inside and outside an

organization; and
• is quantitatively based, providing a vehicle for ongoing strategy analysis

and improvement.

Discussion Questions

1. What other indicators might be used in each of the four perspectives for
public health agencies? For health plans?

2. If you were to add a perspective to the four discussed in the chapter,
what would it be? Draw a strategy map of a healthcare delivery
organization and include this perspective.

3. How do you manage the other operations of an organization—that is,
those that do not appear on a strategy map or balanced scorecard?

4. How would a department link its balanced scorecard to the corporate
scorecard?

Healthcare Operat ions Management94

5. What methods could be used to involve the customer or patient in
identifying the key elements of the balanced scorecard?

Exercises

1. View the videos at the companion website for this book, and download
the PowerPoint strategy map provided. Develop a strategy map and

balanced scorecard for a primary care dental
clinic. Conduct Internet research to determine
the challenges facing primary care dentistry,
and develop a strategy map for success in this
environment.

Make sure the strategy map includes at least eight initiatives and
that they touch on the four perspectives. Include targets, and be sure
the metrics are a mix of leading and lagging indicators. Develop a plan
to periodically review your map to ascertain its effectiveness.

2. Download the data for this chapter provided on the companion
website, and develop a dashboard in Excel to identify readmissions that
occur within 30 days of discharge. A number of initiatives are described
on the website to minimize readmissions. Conduct additional Internet
research and construct a strategy map to improve this readmission rate.

References

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). 2016. “Quality Measures.” Modified
February 14. www.cms.gov/Medicare/Quality-Initiatives-Patient-Assessment-
Instruments/QualityMeasures/index.html?redirect=/QUALITYMEASURES/.

Institute of Medicine (IOM). 2015. Vital Signs: Core Metrics for Health and Health Care
Progress. Published April 28. http://iom.nationalacademies.org/Reports/2015/
Vital-Signs-Core-Metrics.aspx#sthash.NIyVcAPm.dpuf.

Joint Commission, The. 2016. “Core Measure Sets.” Accessed February 10. www.jointcom-
mission.org/core_measure_sets.aspx.

Kaplan, R. S., and D. P. Norton. 1996. The Balanced Scorecard: Translating Strategy into
Action. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

McDonald, B. 2012. “A Review of the Use of the Balanced Scorecard in Healthcare.” Pub-
lished April. www.bmcdconsulting.com/index_htm_files/Review%20of%20the%20
Use%20of%20the%20Balanced%20Scorecard%20in%20Healthcare%20BMcD.pdf.

National Quality Forum (NQF). 2016. “Measures, Reports & Tools.” Accessed February
10. www.qualityforum.org/Measures_Reports_Tools.aspx.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 4: Strategy and the Balanced Scorecard 95

———. 2002. “Serious Reportable Events in Healthcare: A National Quality Forum Con-
sensus Report.” Publication No. NQFCR01-02. Washington, DC: NQF.

Nuwash, P. 2010. “Transforming Change in Health Services Performance Through Business
Intelligence.” Presentation at Midwest Healthcare Business Intelligence Summit,
Bloomington, Minnesota, October 19.

Outram, C. 2014. “Ten Pitfalls of Strategic Failure.” INSEAD Blog. Published March 17. http://
knowledge.insead.edu/blog/insead-blog/ten-pitfalls-of-strategic-failure-3225.

Further Reading

Cleverley, W. O., and J. O. Cleverley. 2005. “Scorecards and Dashboards.” Healthcare
Financial Management 59 (7): 64–69.

Kaplan, R. S., and D. P. Norton. 2008a. The Execution Premium: Linking Strategy to Opera-
tions for Competitive Advantage. Boston: Harvard Business School Publishing.

———. 2008b. “Mastering the Management System.” Harvard Business Review 86 (1): 62–77.
———. 2006. “How to Implement a New Strategy Without Disrupting Your Organiza-

tion.” Harvard Business Review 84 (3): 100–109.
———. 2001. The Strategy-Focused Organization: How Balanced Scorecard Companies

Thrive in the New Business Environment. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
Tarantino, D. P. 2003. “Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Performance Management Tool.”

Physician Executive 29 (5): 69–72.
Wyatt, J. 2004. “Scorecards, Dashboards, and KPIs: Keys to Integrated Performance Mea-

surement.” Healthcare Financial Management 58 (2): 76–80.

CHAPTER

97

PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Operations Management
in Action

The examples in the Operations Manage-
ment in Action sections throughout this
book generally demonstrate the effec-
tive use of the principles of operations
management. However, professionals
can also learn from failures. One of the
most visible, and nearly catastrophic, fail-
ures in healthcare operations manage-
ment was in the implementation of the
Affordable Care Act’s health insurance
exchanges by the US federal government.

Although most of the operational
issues with the exchanges have now been
corrected, at the outset of the implementa-
tion, many of the principles of good project
management were not employed. Following
is a list of poor or inadequate approaches
compiled by an experienced governmen-
tal project manager that demonstrate the
absence of good operations management
(adapted from Thomson 2013):

Unrealistic requirements. This
is the first time anybody has ever tried
to develop a single website where
diverse users could (1) establish an
online identity, (2) review hundreds of
health-insurance options, (3) enroll in a
specific plan, and (4) determine eligibil-
ity for federal subsidies—all in real time.

Technical complexity. As often
occurs with poorly planned [defense]
projects, unrealistic requirements for

5
OVE RVI EW

Everyone manages projects, whether painting a bedroom at home or

adding a 100-bed wing to a hospital. This chapter provides grounding

in the science of project management. The major topics covered include

• selecting and chartering projects;

• using stakeholder analysis to set project requirements;

• developing a work breakdown structure and schedule;

• using Microsoft Project to develop project plans and monitor

cost, schedule, and earned value;

• managing project communications, change control, and risk; and

• creating and leading project teams.

After reading this chapter and completing the associated

exercises, readers should be able to

• create a project charter with a detailed plan for costs, schedule,

scope, and performance;

• monitor the progress of a project, make changes as required,

communicate to stakeholders, and manage risks; and

• develop the skills to successfully lead a project team.

If virtually everyone has had experience managing projects,

why devote a chapter in a healthcare operations book to the topic?

The answer lies in the question. Although everyone has life experi-

ences in project management, few healthcare professionals take the

time to understand and practice the science and discipline of project

management. The ability to successfully move a project forward while

meeting time and budget goals is a distinguishing characteristic of a

high-quality, highly competitive healthcare organization.

Effective project management provides an opportunity for

progressive healthcare organizations to quickly develop new clinical

services, fix major operating problems, reduce expenses, and provide

new consumer-directed products to their patients.

Healthcare Operat ions Management98

HealthCare.gov resulted
in an extraordinarily
complicated system
that is difficult to main-
tain. There are just too
many moving pieces.

Integration re-
sponsibility. Despite
weak internal [infor-
mation technology
(IT)] capabilities, [the
Centers for Medicare
& Medicaid Services
(CMS)] decided it
would take charge of
integrating all the parts
in HealthCare.gov, and
testing the end product
to ensure functionality.
The results show why
the military almost
always hires outside
companies to serve
as lead integrator. The
final resolution of the
problems of Health-
Care.gov was led by
an outside consultant.

Fragmented au-
thority. There seems to
have been a great deal
of infighting at CMS
over how the website
would operate and
what the user experi-
ence would feel like.
With three different
parts of the bureau-
cracy contending for
control—the IT shop,
the policy shop, and
the communications

OVE RVI EW (Continued)

Project management as a formalized management meth-

odology came of age in the period 1958–1979. New management

science mathematical tools, such as program evaluation and review

technique (PERT) and the critical path method (introduced in chap-

ter 2 and discussed later in this chapter), were developed. In addi-

tion, the rapid development of computer systems, such as the

minicomputer, made the use of these tools accessible to project

managers (Azzopardi 2016).

Project management as a discipline continued to develop

over time, culminating in the establishment of the Project Manage-

ment Institute (PMI) in 1969 (www.PMI.org). As of 2014, PMI had

more than 2.9 million members, and more than 650,000 of those

members were certified as project management professionals

(PMPs) (PMI 2015).

PMI publishes the Project Management Body of Knowl-

edge (PMBOK) (PMI 2013), which details best practices for suc-

cessful project management.

In addition to the work of PMI, Carden and Egan (2008)

undertook a comprehensive review of the scientific basis for project

management. According to their study,

refereed research has indicated that project managers utilize

tools and techniques along with people to ensure quality

deliverables are on time, within scope, and within budget.

Additionally, project leadership and a favorable development

environment both are important to the successful delivery

of projects. Therefore, the connection between knowledge

and action can be used to frame behaviors by engaging in

transactions to plan, organize, monitor, and report findings

in order to maintain a dynamic balance with the organization,

resources, tools, and the external environment.

Much as evidence-based medicine delineates the most

effective methods to care for specific clinical conditions, PMBOK

provides science-based, field-tested guidelines for successful

project management. This chapter is based on PMBOK principles as

applied to healthcare. Healthcare professionals who spend much of

their time leading projects should consider using resources avail-

able through PMI; for some, PMP certification may be appropriate.

Chapter 5: Project Management 99

shop—key decisions were often delayed, guidance to contractors was inconsistent,
and nobody was truly in charge.

Loose metrics. Perhaps the most important factor in keeping complex projects
on track is for managers to utilize rigorous, unambiguous performance metrics in
measuring progress. Absence of reliable metrics helps explain why federal officials
didn’t realize until late in the game that HealthCare.gov might not be ready for
prime time.

Inadequate testing. Despite repeated warnings from contractors that more
testing of system components was needed, CMS was determined to see the site go
live on its planned debut date of October 1.

Aggressive schedules. You wouldn’t think that standing up a website after
literally years of planning might entail overly aggressive schedules, but in the case
of HealthCare.gov the disorganized bureaucracy took so long to make design choices
that the back end of the project was way too hurried for comfort.

Administrative blindness. [CMS] may not have had good management prac-
tices or metrics for identifying problems, but that doesn’t mean it didn’t get plenty
of warnings about potential problems with HealthCare.gov. Outside consultants and
contractors on the project repeatedly warned government officials about functional
difficulties with some features of the site, lack of adequate testing, poor protection
of sensitive information, and the like.

Definition of a Project

A project is a one-time set of activities that culminates in a desired outcome.
Therefore, activities that occur repeatedly—for example, making appointments
for patients in a clinic—are not projects. However, the installation of new
software to upgrade the appointment-making capability is a project, as is a
major process improvement effort to reduce telephone hold time for patients.

Slack (2005) provides a useful tool for determining the need for formal
project management (exhibit 5.1). Operational issues arise frequently; if they
are simple, they can be fixed immediately by operations staff. More difficult
problems can be addressed by using the tools detailed in chapter 6. However,
projects that are complex and have high organizational value need the discipline
of formal project management. Many of the strategic initiatives on an organiza-
tion’s balanced scorecard should use the project management methodology.

A well-managed project includes

• a specified scope of work,
• expected outcomes and performance levels,
• a budget,
• a detailed work breakdown tied to a schedule,

Healthcare Operat ions Management100

• a formal change procedure,
• a communications plan,
• a plan to deal with risk,
• a project conclusion process, and
• a plan for redeployment of staff.

Many high-performing organizations also have a formal, executive-level
chartering process for projects and a project management office to monitor
enterprisewide project activities. Some healthcare organizations (e.g., health
plans) may have a substantial share of their operating resources invested in
projects at any one time.

For effective execution of a project, PMI recommends that three ele-
ments be in place. A project charter begins the project and addresses stakeholder
needs. A project scope statement identifies the project outcomes, timelines, and
budget in detail. Finally, a project plan is developed and includes scope man-
agement, work breakdown, schedule management, cost management, quality
control, staffing management, communications, risk management, procure-
ment, and the closeout process. Exhibit 5.2 displays the relationships among
these elements.

Project Selection and Chartering
Project Selection
Most organizations have many projects vying for attention, funding, and senior
executive support. The annual budget and strategic planning processes serve

Find it ,
fix it

Problem-solving
process

Level of
detail and
problem
solving

Project
management

Complex

Simple

Source: Slack (2005). Used with permission.

EXHIBIT 5.1
When to

Use Project
Management

Chapter 5: Project Management 101

as useful vehicles for prioritizing projects in many organizations. The balanced
scorecard (chapter 4) helps guide the identification of worthwhile strategic
projects. Other external forces (e.g., new Medicare rules) or clinical innovations
(e.g., new imaging technologies), however, conspire to present an organization’s
leadership with a list of projects too long for successful implementation. When
selection dilemmas present themselves, consider using a quantitative approach,
such as the example provided in exhibit 5.3. In this case, each possible project
is scored on six measures, including the four balanced scorecard perspectives
with a predetermined weighting.

To use this tool, each potential project should be scored by a senior
planning group on the following factors: how well it fits into the organization’s
strategy, its financial benefit, how it affects quality, its operational impact, the key
personnel requirements, and the costs and time required for the project itself.
A scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high) is usually used. Each criterion is also weighted;
the scores are multiplied by their weight for each criterion and summed over all
of the criteria. In exhibit 5.3, project B has a higher total score because of its
importance to the organization’s strategy. Such a ranking methodology helps
organizations avoid committing resources to projects that may have a powerful
internal champion but do not advance the organization’s overall strategy. This
matrix can be modified with other categories and weights in accordance with
an organization’s current needs.

Initiation
and charter

Scope—
requirements

Project plan

Scope management
and work breakdown

Schedule management

Cost management

Quality control

Communications

Risk management

Procurement

Stakeholders

Closeout process

EXHIBIT 5.2
Complete
Project
Management
Process

Healthcare Operat ions Management102

Project Charter
Once a project is identified for implementation, it needs to be chartered. “The
project charter is [a] document issued by the project initiator or sponsor that
formally authorizes the existence of a project and provides the project manager
with the authority to apply organizational resources to project activities” (PMI
2013). A project initiator, or sponsor external to the project, issues the charter
and signs it to authorize the start of the project.

Four factors tend to constrain the execution of a project charter: time,
cost, scope, and performance. A successful project has a scope that specifies
the resulting performance level, how much time it will take to complete, and
its budgeted cost. A change in any one of these factors affects the other three,
as expressed mathematically in the following equation:

Scope = f (Time, Cost, Performance),

where f is the function of the four factors in a project. Similarly,

Time = f (Cost, Scope, Performance),

and so on.
Exhibit 5.4 demonstrates these relationships graphically. Here, the area

of the triangle is a measure of the scope of the project. The length of each side
of the triangle indicates the amount of time, amount of money, or level of per-
formance needed to complete the project. Because each side of the triangle is
connected, changing any of these parameters affects the others. Exhibit 5.5 shows
this same project with an increase in required performance level and shortened
timelines. With the same scope, this “new” project will incur additional costs.

Measures Possible Points Project A Project B

Strategy alignment 5 3 5

Financial impact 10 4 8

Quality and productivity
impact

5 2 3

Customers/patients impact 7 4 4

Staff availability and training 2 2 1

Probability of success (time,
cost)

3 3 1

Total 32 18 22

EXHIBIT 5.3
Project

Management
Matrix

Chapter 5: Project Management 103

Although determining the relationship between all four factors specifi-
cally and exactly is difficult, the successful project manager understands this
general relationship well and communicates it to project sponsors. A useful
analogy is the balloon: If you push hard on one part of it, a different part bulges
out. The classic project management dilemma is an increase in scope without
additional time or funding (sometimes termed scope creep). Many project failures
are directly attributable to ignoring this unyielding formula.

Stakeholder Identification and Dialogue
The first step in developing a project charter is to identify the stakeholders—in
general, anyone who has an investment in the outcome of the project. Key
stakeholders on a project include the project manager; customers; users; project
team members; any contracted organizations involved; the project sponsor;
those who can influence the project; and the project management office, if
one exists in the organization.

The project manager is the individual held accountable for the project’s
success and, therefore, represents the core of the stakeholder group. The
customer or user of the service or product is an important stakeholder who
influences and helps determine the performance of the final product. Even
if project team members serve on the project in a limited part-time role, the

Stakeholder
Anyone who has a
vested interest in
the outcome of a
project, including
(but not limited
to) employees,
customers,
users, partner
organizations,
project sponsors,
and the project
manager.

Cost = f (Performance, Time, Scope)

Performance

Scope

Time

Cost

EXHIBIT 5.4
Relationship of
Project Scope
to Performance
Level, Time, and
Cost

Performance

Scope

Time

Cost

EXHIBIT 5.5
Project with
Increased
Performance
Requirement
and Shortened
Schedule

Healthcare Operat ions Management104

success of the project reflects on them; therefore, they become stakeholders
as well. A common contracting relationship in healthcare involves large IT
installations provided through an outside vendor, which also is included as
a project stakeholder. A project should always have a sponsor with enough
executive-level influence to clear roadblocks as the project progresses; hence,
such individuals need to be included in the stakeholder group. A project
may be aided or hindered by many individuals or organizations that are not
directly part of it; a global systems analysis should be performed (the system
as depicted in exhibit 1.2, chapter 1) to identify which of these should be
included as stakeholders.

Once stakeholders have been identified, they need to be interviewed by
the project manager to develop the project charter. If an important stakeholder
is not available, the project manager should interview someone who represents
the stakeholder’s interests. At this point, differentiating between the needs and
the wants of stakeholders is important. Adequate detail must be gathered in
this process to construct the project charter.

When the project team is organized, it need not include all stakeholders,
but the team should be vigilant in attempting to meet all stakeholder needs.
The project team should also be cognizant of the culture of the organization,
sometimes defined as “how things get done around here.” Projects that chal-
lenge an organization’s culture encounter frequent difficulties.

Feasibility Analysis
An important activity in developing the project charter is determining the
project’s feasibility. Feasibility analysis is the review of all the elements of a
project that are judged by the project’s sponsor to be acceptable, leading to
approval of the project. Because the project should already have undergone
an initial prioritization review by the senior management team, the link to
the organization’s strategy likely has already been made. To reinforce that
linkage, it should be documented in the feasibility analysis. The operational
and technical feasibility should also be examined. For example, a new clinical
project that requires the construction of new facilities may be impeded in its
execution because its timing is contingent on completion of the new buildings.

An initial schedule should be created as part of the feasibility analysis to
avoid committing to a requested completion date that is impossible to meet.
Finally, both financial benefit and marketplace demand should be considered
here. Conducting a financial feasibility analysis is beyond the scope of this text;
consult Gapenski and Reiter (2016) to view numerous examples of financial
analysis.

All elements of the feasibility analysis should be included in the project
charter document, which is described next.

Chapter 5: Project Management 105

Project Charter Document
The project charter authorizes the project and serves as an executive summary.
A formal charter document should be constructed with the following elements:

• Project mission statement
• Project purpose or justification and connection to strategic goals
• High-level requirements that satisfy customers, sponsors, and other

stakeholders
• Assigned project manager and authority level
• Summary milestones
• Stakeholder influences
• Functional organizations and their expected level of participation
• Organizational, environmental, and external assumptions and

constraints
• Financial business case, budget, and return on investment
• Project sponsor with approval signature

A project charter template is provided on the
companion website to this book. The initial descrip-
tion of the project scope is found in the Requirements,
Milestones, and Financial sections of the template.

A project charter can be illustrated with an example from Vincent Valley
Hospital and Health System (VVH). The hospital operates an oncology clinic,
Riverview Clinic, in the south suburban area of Bakersville. Recently, the three
largest health plans in the area instituted pay-for-performance (P4P) programs
to encourage the use of precision medicine in the care of patients with cancer.
Precision medicine focuses on identifying which therapeutic approaches will be
effective for which patients on the basis of genetic, environmental, and lifestyle
factors. For cancer care, pharmacogenomics—the study of how genes affect a
person’s response to particular drugs—is a key element of precision medicine.
This therapeutic approach combines pharmacology (the science of drugs) and
genomics (the study of genes and their functions) to develop effective, safe medi-
cations and doses tailored to variations in a person’s genes (Lister Hill 2016).

The health plans will pay the clinic bonuses if Riverview achieves spe-
cific levels of performance in the use of precision medicine. The P4P system is
being initiated because precision medicine has been shown to provide better
results for the patient and to reduce the health plans’ costs over the course of
treatment (van den Akker-van Marle et al. 2006). Riverview Clinic staff have
decided to embark on a project to increase their use of precision medicine;
their project charter is displayed in exhibit 5.6.

On the web at
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Healthcare Operat ions Management106

Project Mission Statement

This project for Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System (VVH) will
increase the level of use of precision medicine—pharmacogenomic drugs—
to improve outcomes, lower the long-term costs of care to our patients, and
increase reimbursements to the clinic.

Project Purpose and Justification

Health plans in Bakersville have begun to provide additional funding to clin-
ics that meet pharmacogenomic use guidelines. Although a number of condi-
tions are covered by these new payment systems, VVH leadership feels that
pharmacogenomic drug use should be the first project executed because it
is likely to be accomplished in a reasonable time frame with the maximum
financial benefit to our patients and the clinic. Once this project has been
executed, the clinic will move on to more complex clinical conditions.

The project team will be able to incorporate what it has learned
about some of the barriers to success and methods to succeed in pay-for-
performance (P4P) projects. This project is a part of the larger VVH strategic
initiative of maximizing P4P reimbursement.

High-Level Requirements

Once completed, a new prescribing process will
• continue to meet patients’ clinical needs and provide high-quality care and
• increase pharmacogenomic drug use by 4 percent from baseline within six

months.

Assigned Project Manager and Authority Level

Sally Humphries, RN, will be the project manager. Sally has authority to
make changes in budget, time, scope, and performance by up to 10 percent.
Any larger change requires approval from the clinic operating board.

Summary Milestones

• The project will commence on January 1.
• A system to identify approved pharmacogenomic drugs will be available on

February 15.
• The system will go live on March 15.

Stakeholder Influences

The following stakeholders will influence the project:
• Clinicians will strive to provide the best care for their patients.
• Patients will need to understand the benefits of this new system.
• Clinic staff will need training and support tools.
• Health plans should be a partner in this project as part of the supply chain.
• Pharmaceutical firms should provide clinical information on the efficacy of

certain pharmacogenomic drugs.

EXHIBIT 5.6
Project

Charter for
VVH Precision

Medicine
Project

(continued)

Chapter 5: Project Management 107

Project Scope and Work Breakdown

Once a project has been chartered, the detailed work of planning can begin.

Tools
At this point, the project manager should consider acquiring two important
tools. The first is the lowest of low tech, the humble three-ring binder. All
projects need a continuous record of progress reports, team meetings, approved
changes, and so on. A complex project requires many binders, and they will
prove invaluable to the project manager. The classic organization of the bind-
ers is by date, so the first pages should be the project charter. Of course, if the
organization has an effective imaging and document management system, this
can substitute for the binders.

The second tool is project management software. Although many options
are available, the market leader is Microsoft Project, which is used for the

Functional Organizations and Their Participation

• Clinic management staff will lead.
• Compcare (electronic health record vendor) will perform software

modifications.
• VVH information technology (IT) department will support.
• VVH main pharmacy department will support.

Organizational, Environmental, and External Assumptions and Constraints

• Success depends on appropriate substitution of pharmacogenomics for
more traditional therapeutic approaches.

• Patients need to understand the benefits of this change.
• Health plans need to continue to fund this project over a number of years.
• IT modifications need to be approved rapidly by the VVH central IT

department.

Financial Business Case—Return on Investment

The project budget is $161,000 for personnel. Software modifications are
included in the master VVH contract and, therefore, have no direct cost
impact on this project. If the 4 percent increase in pharmacogenomic drug
use is achieved, the two-year revenue increase should be approximately
$175,000.

Project Sponsor with Approval Signature

Dr. Jim Anderson, Clinic President

James Anderson, MD

EXHIBIT 5.6
Project
Charter for
VVH Precision
Medicine
Project
(continued from
previous page)

Healthcare Operat ions Management108

examples throughout the remainder of the chapter. Microsoft Project is part
of the Microsoft Office suite and may already be on many computers in the
organization. If not, a demonstration copy can be downloaded from Microsoft.

The companion website for this book provides addi-
tional explanation related to the use of Project, along
with detailed illustrations of the software’s use for the
Riverview Clinic precision medicine drug project.

Project management software is not essential for small projects, but it
is helpful and almost required for any project that lasts longer than six months
and involves a large team of individuals. Although the Riverview Clinic pharma-
cogenomic drug project is relatively small, Project software is used to manage
it to provide an illustration of the program’s applicability.

Scope
The project scope determines what activities fall within the parameters of a
project—a good scope document is specific about these boundaries. The start-
ing point for developing the detailed scope document is the project charter.
To provide the level of detail needed for this document, the project manager
revisits many of the same stakeholders who contributed to the charter to
acquire specific inputs and requirements. A simple methodology is to interview
stakeholders and ask them to list the three most important outcomes of the
project, which can be combined into project objectives. The objectives must
be specific, achievable, measurable, and comprehensible to stakeholders. In
addition, they should be stated in terms of time-limited “deliverables.” For
example, the objective “Improve the quality of care to patients with diabetes”
is a poor one, whereas “Improve the rate of foot examinations for patients
with diabetes by 25 percent in one year” is a much better objective because it
states a specific, measurable goal that makes sense to stakeholders and is likely
achievable.

The scope document also provides detailed requirements and descrip-
tions of expected outcomes, and it often specifies what types of outcomes are
not being sought. For example, the Riverview Clinic project scope document
might state that the project does not include the use of pharmacogenomic
drugs that are still undergoing clinical trials.

The types of deliverables should be specified in the project scope as
well, such as implementation of a new process, installation of a new piece of
equipment, or presentation of a report. The organization of the project’s per-
sonnel is also clarified in the scope document. It names the project manager
and team members and defines their relationships in terms of their roles in the
overall organization.

An initial evaluation of potential risks to the project should be presented
in the scope document. As with other details, the schedule length and milestones

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Chapter 5: Project Management 109

should be more detailed in the scope statement than in the charter. As discussed
in the next section, the final schedule is developed on the basis of the work
breakdown structure. Finally, the scope document should include methods
for monitoring progress and making changes where necessary, including the
formal approvals required.

The individual assigned to create the project scope document must avoid
expanding the scope of the project beyond its original intent: “While we are at
it, we might as well ____.” These add-ons, sometimes called “gold plating,”
tend to be some of the most dangerous occurrences in the world of project
management because they can result in projects going over budget, not being
completed on time, and not meeting performance goals.

Work Breakdown Structure
The second major component of the scope document is the work breakdown
structure (WBS), considered the engine of the project because it determines
how the project’s goals are to be achieved. The WBS lists the tasks that need
to be accomplished, including an estimate of the resources required (e.g., staff
time, services, equipment). For complex projects, the WBS is a hierarchy of
major tasks, subtasks, and work packages (subdivisions of the work contained
in a subtask). Exhibit 5.7 demonstrates this framework graphically.

The size of each task should be planned carefully. A task should not be
so small that its monitoring consumes a disproportionate share of the task itself.
Similarly, an overly large task cannot be effectively monitored and should be
divided into subtasks and then work packages. The task should be described

Work breakdown
structure (WBS)
A list of the tasks
that need to be
accomplished,
their relationship
to each other,
and the resources
required for a
project to meet its
goals.

Project

3ksaT2ksaT1ksaT

1.3ksatbuS1.2ksatbuS1.1ksatbuS Subtask 1.3Subtask 1.2

Work package 1.1.1

Work package 1.1.2

Work package 1.1.3

Work package 2.1.1 Work package 2.1.2

Note: This type of diagram can be generated in Microsoft Word and other Microsoft Office products
by using the commands Insert → Smart Art → Hierarchy. WBS = work breakdown structure.

EXHIBIT 5.7
General Format
for WBS

Healthcare Operat ions Management110

in enough detail that the individual responsible, the cost, and the duration
can be identified.

A reasonable guideline in terms of duration is that a task should be one
to three weeks in length to be effectively monitored. Some tasks are particu-
larly critical to the success of the project. These tasks should be identified as
milestones. The completion of milestones provides a convenient shorthand
method to communicate overall project progress to stakeholders.

The WBS can be developed by the project team itself or with the help
of outside experts who have executed similar projects. At this point in the
project, the WBS is the best estimate of how the project will be executed. Of
course, WBSs are almost always inaccurate in some way, so the formal control
and change procedures described in this section are essential to successful
project management.

After the WBS has been constructed, the resources required and esti-
mated time for each element must be refined. Estimating the time a task will
require is an art and is best exercised by a team of individuals. Any previous
experiences and data can be helpful in this phase. One group process that has
proved useful is the program evaluation and review technique (PERT) for time
estimation. Team members individually estimate the time a task will take at its
best, worst, and most likely progression. After averaging the team’s responses
for each of the times, the final PERT time estimate is computed as

Estimated task time
Best (4 Most likely) Worst

6
=

+ × +

After a number of meetings, the Riverview Clinic team has determined
that the pharmacogenomic drug project includes three major tasks, each with
two subtasks, that needed to be accomplished to meet the goals of the project.
The subtasks are as follows:

• Develop a clinical strategy that maintains quality care with the increased
use of pharmacogenomics.

• Develop a system to inform clinicians of approved pharmacogenomics.
• Update systems to ensure that timely patient medication lists are

available to clinicians.
• Develop and deploy a staff education plan.
• Develop a system to monitor performance.
• Develop and begin to distribute patient education materials.

The WBS for Riverview Clinic’s project is displayed in exhibit 5.8. The
actions listed in the bottom tier represent the higher-level tasks for this project.
For a project of this scope to proceed effectively, many more subtasks, perhaps

Chapter 5: Project Management 111

50 to 100, are generally required; we are limiting this example to higher-level
tasks to illustrate the principles of project management.

It is important to note that the time estimate for each task is the total
time needed to accomplish a task, not the calendar time it will take—a three-
day task can be accomplished in three days by one person or in one day by
three people.

The next step is to determine what resources are needed to accomplish
these tasks. Riverview Clinic has decided that this project will be accomplished
by four existing employees and the purchase of consulting time from VVH’s
IT supplier. The individuals involved are

• Tom Simpson, clinic administrator;
• Dr. Betsey Thompson, oncologist;
• Sally Humphries, RN, nursing supervisor;
• Cindy Tang, billing manager; and
• Bill Onku, IT vendor support consultant.

The Project software provides a convenient window in which to docu-
ment these individuals’ participation and their cost per hour. The program
also provides higher levels of detail, such as the hours an individual can devote
to the project and actual calendar days that they are available. When asking
clinicians to contribute to a project, the project manager should consider the
revenue per hour generated by these individuals, as opposed to their salaries
and benefits, because most organizations lose this revenue if the clinician has a
busy practice. Exhibit 5.9 shows the Project window for the Riverview Clinic
staff who will work on the pharmacogenomic drug project.

Pharmacogenomic
drug project

Management
and

administration
gniniarTsmetsyS

Develop
clinical

strategy
(10 days)

Develop
monitoring

system
(27 days)

Identify
approved

pharmacogenomic
drugs (22 days)

Supply current
patient

medication
list (33 days)

Train staff
(17 days)

Provide patient
education

(9 days)

Note: WBS = work breakdown structure.

EXHIBIT 5.8
WBS for River-
view Pharmaco-
genomic Drug
Project

Healthcare Operat ions Management112

Team members should be clear about their accountability for each task.
A functional responsibility chart, such as the RASIC framework (which stands
for responsible, approval, support, informed, and consult) is helpful; the Riverview
project RASIC is displayed in exhibit 5.10. The RASIC diagram is a matrix
of team members and tasks from the WBS. For each task, one individual is
responsible (R) for ensuring that the task is completed. Other team members
may need to approve (A) the completion of the task. Additional team members
may work on the task as well, so they are considered support (S). Assigning
to a team member the obligation to inform (I) other members helps a team
communicate effectively. Finally, some team members need to be consulted
(C) as a task is implemented.

RASIC
A chart delineating
all project team
members’ roles
for each task in
a project. The
acronym comes
from the members’
roles: responsible,
approval, support,
informed, consult.

EXHIBIT 5.9
Resources for
the Riverview

Clinic Pharma-
cogenomic Drug

Project

WBS Task

Clinic
Board of
Directors

Lead MD
Betsey

Thompson

Adminis-
trator

Tom

Simpson

Project
Manager

Sally

Humphries

Billing
Lead

Cindy Tang

IT Lead
Bill Onku

Develop clinical

strategy
A R C C I I

System to

identify approved

pharmacogenomics

A R S R S

Updated

medication lists
R I S I S

Patient education A S S R I I

Staff education A R C S I

Monitoring system A C R C S C

Note: R = responsible; A = approval; S = support; I = inform; C = consult. WBS = work breakdown
structure.

EXHIBIT 5.10
RASIC for the

Riverview
Pharma-

cogenomic Drug
Project

Chapter 5: Project Management 113

Scheduling
Network Diagrams and Gantt Charts
Because the WBS does not specify a sequence of activities, the next step is to
schedule each task to complete the total project. First, the logical order of the
tasks must be determined. For example, the Riverview Clinic project team has
determined that the system to identify appropriate pharmacogenomic drugs
must be developed before the training of staff and education of patients can
begin. Other constraints must also be considered in the schedule, including
required start or completion dates and resource availability.

Two tools are used to visually display the schedule. The first is a net-
work diagram that connects each task in precedence order. This is essentially
a process map (chapter 6) in which the process is performed only once; the
main difference is that network diagrams do not display paths that return to the
beginning (as happens frequently in process maps). A practical way to develop
an initial network diagram is to place each task on a sticky note and arrange,
and rearrange, the notes on a set of flip charts until they meet the logical and
date-imposed constraints. The tasks can then be entered into a project man-
agement software system.

Exhibit 5.11 is the network diagram developed by the team for the
Riverview Clinic pharmacogenomic drug project. This schedule can be entered
into Project to generate a similar diagram. Another common scheduling tool
is the Gantt chart, which lists each task on the left side of the page with a bar
indicating the start and end times. The Gantt chart for the Riverview Clinic
project, generated by Project, is shown in exhibit 5.12. Each bar indicates the
duration of the task, and the small arrows connecting the bars indicate the
predecessor–successor relationship of the tasks.

Network diagram
A scheduling tool
that connects
tasks in order of
precedence.

Gantt chart
A scheduling tool
that lists project
tasks, with bars
indicating start
and end dates for
each task.

Develop
clinical
strategy

Patient
education

Staff
education

Updated
medication

lists

Monitoring
system

Start

Implement

System to
identify

approved
pharma-

cogenomics

EXHIBIT 5.11
Network
Diagram for
Riverview
Pharma-
cogenomic
Drug Project

Healthcare Operat ions Management114

The next step is to assign resources to each task. Exhibit 5.13 shows
how the resources are assigned for each day in the project. Care must be taken
when assigning resources, as no person works 100 percent of the time. If any
single individual is allocated at more than 80 percent in any period, the schedule
may need to be adjusted to reduce this allocation. Adjusting the schedule to
accommodate this constraint is known as “resource leveling.”

A fi nal review of this initial schedule is undertaken to assess how many
tasks are being performed in parallel (simultaneously). A project with few

EXHIBIT 5.12
Riverview

Pharma-
cogenomic Drug

Project Gantt
Chart

EXHIBIT 5.13
Riverview

Pharma-
cogenomic Drug

Project Tasks
with Resources

Assigned

Chapter 5: Project Management 115

parallel tasks takes longer to complete than does one with more total tasks
of which many are parallel. Another consideration may be date constraints.
Examples include a task that cannot begin until a certain date because of staff
availability and a task that must be completed by a certain date to meet an
externally imposed deadline (e.g., new Medicare billing policy). The Project
software provides tools to set these constraints in the schedule.

Slack and the Critical Path
To optimize a schedule, the project manager must pay attention to slack in
the schedule and to the critical path. A task that takes three days but does not
need to be completed for five days is said to have two days of slack. The criti-
cal path is the longest sequence of tasks with no slack, or the shortest possible
completion time of the project.

Slack is determined by the early finish and late finish dates. The early
finish date is the earliest date that a task could possibly be completed, as
determined by the early finish dates of predecessor tasks. The late finish date
is the latest date that a task can be completed without delaying the finish of
the project; it is based on the late start and late finish dates of successor tasks.
The difference between early finish and late finish dates equals the amount of
slack. For critical path tasks (which have no slack), the early finish and late fin-
ish dates are identical. Tasks with slack can start later based on the amount of
slack they have available. In other words, if (1) a task takes three days, (2) the
early finish date is day 18 (based on its predecessors), and (3) the late finish
date is day 30 (based on it successors), the slack for this task is 12 days; this
task could start as late as day 27 without affecting the completion date of the
project. The critical path, which determines the duration of a project, is the
connected course through a project of critical tasks.

Calculating slack and the critical path can be complex and time consum-
ing. Fortunately, Project performs these functions automatically. However, in
some cases (e.g., a basic clinical research project), estimating the duration of
tasks is difficult. If a project includes many tasks with high variability in their
expected durations, the PERT estimating system should be used. Note that,
although PERT employs probabilistic task times to estimate slack and criti-
cal paths and is good for time estimation prior to the start of the project, the
critical path method is better suited for project management once a project has
begun. Having a range of start dates for a task is not particularly useful—what
is really important is knowing when a task should have started and whether
the project is ahead of or behind schedule.

Although Project provides a PERT scheduling function, the use of PERT
is infrequent in healthcare and beyond the scope of this book. Exhibit 5.14
displays a Gantt chart for the Riverview Clinic pharmacogenomics project,
with both slack and critical path calculated.

Healthcare Operat ions Management116

Schedule Compression
Say the president of Riverview Clinic has been notifi ed by one health plan that
if the Riverview pharmacogenomic drug project is implemented by March 1,
the clinic will receive a $20,000 bonus. He asks the project manager to consider
speeding up, or “crashing,” the project.

The term project crashing has negative associations, as the thought of a
computer crashing stirs up dire images. However, a crashed project is simply
one that has had its schedule compressed. Schedule compression of a project
requires reducing the length of the critical path and can be achieved by using
any of the following techniques (PMI 2013, 181):

• Shortening the duration of work on a task on the critical path
• Changing a task constraint to allow for more scheduling fl exibility
• Breaking a critical task into smaller tasks that can be worked on

simultaneously by different resources
• Revising task dependencies to allow more scheduling fl exibility
• Performing tasks in parallel as opposed to a linear sequence

(fast-tracking)
• Setting lead time between dependent tasks where applicable
• Scheduling overtime
• Bringing in additional staff
• Paying for expedited delivery of needed supplies
• Assigning additional resources to work on critical path tasks
• Lowering performance goals (not recommended without strong

stakeholder agreement)

The scope, time, duration, and performance relationships need to be
considered in a crashed project. A crashed project has a high risk of costing
more than the original schedule predicted, so the formal change procedure,
discussed in the next section, should be used.

EXHIBIT 5.14
Gantt Chart

for Riverview
Clinic Pharma-

cogenomic
Drug Project

with Slack and
Critical Path

Calculated
Slack for
each task

Critical
path

Chapter 5: Project Management 117

Project Control

Project management would be straightforward if every project’s schedule and
costs occurred according to the initial project plan. However, because this
is almost never the case, an effective project monitoring and change control
system must be in place throughout the life of a project.

Monitoring Progress
The first important monitoring element is a system to measure schedule comple-
tion, cost, and expected performance against the initial plan. Microsoft Project
provides a number of tools to assist the project manager in this area. After the
plan’s initial scope document, WBS, staffing, and budget have been determined,
they are saved as the “baseline plan.” Any changes during the project can be
compared to this baseline.

On a disciplined time basis (e.g., once per
week), the project manager needs to receive a prog-
ress report from each task manager—the individual
designated as responsible on the RASIC chart (see
exhibit 5.10 and the companion website for examples)—regarding schedule
completion and cost.

Change Control
The project manager should hold a status meeting at least once a month, and
preferably more frequently. At this meeting, the project team should review
the actual status of the project in terms of task completion, expenses, person-
nel utilization, and progress toward expected project outcomes. The majority
of time spent in these meetings should be devoted to problem solving, not
reporting.

Once deviations are detected, their source and causes must be deter-
mined by the team. For major or complex deviations, diagnostic tools such as
fishbone diagrams (chapter 6) can be used. Three courses of action are now
available: Ignore the deviation if it is small, take corrective action to remedy the
problem, or modify the plan by using the formal change procedure developed
in the project charter and scope document.

One major cause of deviations is an event that occurs outside the proj-
ect. The environment constantly changes during a project’s execution, and
modifications of the project’s scope or performance level may be necessary.
For example, the application of a new clinical breakthrough may take priority
over projects that improve support systems, or a competitor may initiate a new
service that requires a response.

A formal change mechanism is a key tool used by high-performing
project managers. Resistance to communicating a schedule or cost problem to

On the web at
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Healthcare Operat ions Management118

project sponsors and stakeholders is part of human nature. However, the con-
sequences of this inaction can be significant, if not fatal, to large projects. The
change process forces all parties involved in a project to subject themselves to
disciplined analysis of options and creates disincentives for scope creep. Changes
to the initial plan should be documented in writing and formally approved by
the project sponsor as appropriate. They should then be added to the project
records (three-ring binders or equivalent).

The Riverview Clinic project charter (and subsequent scope document)
states that changes in plan that constitute less than 10 percent of the total
affected resource can be made by project manager Sally Humphries. There-
fore, she is authorized to adjust the schedule by up to 4.9 days, the cost by up
to $6,100, and the performance goal by 0.4 percent. For deviations greater

than these amounts, Sally needs the clinic board to
review and sign off on the adjustment. The compan-
ion website contains project change documentation
and a sign-off template.

Communications
A formal communications plan should be developed as part of scope creation.
Communications to both internal and external stakeholders are critical to the
success of a project. Many types of communications media can be used, from
simple oral briefings to e-mails to formal reports. One approach used by many
organizations today is to establish a web-based intranet that contains detailed
information on the project, combined with a periodical e-mail update sent to
stakeholders with a summary progress report and links back to the intranet
site for more detailed information. A sophisticated communications plan is
fine-tuned to meet stakeholder needs and interests and communicates only
those issues of interest to each stakeholder. As part of the communications
strategy, feedback from stakeholders should always be solicited, as changes in
the project plan may affect one or more stakeholders in ways unknown to the
project manager.

The project update communications should contain information gath-
ered from quantitative reports. At a minimum, these communications should
provide progress against baseline on schedule, cost, scope, and expected per-
formance. Any changes to project baseline or the approval process should be
noted, as should those issues that need resolution or are being resolved. The
expected completion date is always of interest to all stakeholders and should
be a prominent part of any project plan communication.

Risk Management
Comprehensive prospective risk management is another element of successful
projects. A risk is an event that, if realized, causes the project to experience a

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Risk management
Within a project,
the identification
of possible events
that, if realized,
will affect the
execution of the
project and a plan
to mitigate these
events.

Chapter 5: Project Management 119

substantial deviation from the planned schedule, cost, scope, or performance.
Like many other aspects of project management, developing a risk manage-
ment plan at the beginning of a project—and updating it continuously as the
project progresses—takes discipline.

The most direct way to develop a risk management plan is to begin with
the WBS. Each task in the WBS should be assessed for risks, both known and
unknown. Risks can occur for each task in its performance, duration, or cost.
If a project includes 50 tasks, it has 150 potential risks.

A number of techniques can be used to identify risks; the most straight-
forward is a brainstorming exercise by the project team. (Some of the tools
found in chapter 6, such as mind mapping, root-cause analysis, and force field
analysis, can also be used in risk assessment.) Another useful technique is to
interview stakeholders to identify risks to the project as viewed from their
perspective. The organization’s strategic plan is also a resource, especially if it
contains a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats analysis (frequently
referred to as a SWOT analysis). The weaknesses and threats sections may
contain clues as to potential risks to a project task.

Once risks have been identified for each task in the WBS structure, the
project team should assign a risk probability to each. Those risks with the highest
probability, or likelihood, of occurring during the project should be analyzed
in depth and a risk management strategy devised. The failure mode and effects
analysis method (chapter 6) can also be used for a more rigorous risk analysis.

For tasks that are critical to project execution or that carry high risk, a
quantitative analysis can be conducted. Assuming that data can be collected for
similar tasks in multiple circumstances, probability distributions can be created
and used for simulation and modeling. An example of the applicability of this
technique is in remodeling space in an older building. If an organization were
to review a number of recent remodeling projects, it might determine that the
average cost per square foot of remodeled space is $200 with a normal distribu-
tion (think bell curve; distribution is discussed in more detail later in the book).
This information may be used as the basis of a Monte Carlo simulation or as
part of a decision tree (chapter 6). The results of these simulations provide the
project manager with quantitative boundaries on the possible risks associated
with the task and project and are useful in constructing mitigation strategies.

Tasks with the following characteristics may be high risk and thus should
be considered carefully:

• Long duration
• Highly variable estimates of duration
• Dependence on external organizations
• Requirement of a unique resource (e.g., a physician who is on call)
• Likely to be affected by external government or payer policies

Healthcare Operat ions Management120

The management strategy for each identified risk should have three
components. First, risk avoidance initiatives should be identified. Avoiding an
adverse event is always preferable to dealing with its consequences. An example
of a risk avoidance strategy is to provide mentoring to a young team member
who has responsibility for key tasks in the project plan.

The second element of the risk management strategy is to develop a
mitigation plan. One example of a mitigation response is to bring additional
people and financial resources to a task. Another is to call on the project spon-
sor to help break an organizational logjam.

Third, a project team may decide to transfer the risk to an insurance
entity. This strategy is common in construction projects through the use of
bonding for contractors.

All identified risks and their management plans should be outlined in a
risk register, a listing of each task, identified risks, and prevention and mitiga-
tion plans. This register should be updated throughout the life of the project.

The Riverview Clinic project team has identified three serious risks,
which are listed in exhibit 5.15 with their mitigation plans.

Quality Management, Procurement, the Project
Management Office, and Project Closure
Quality Management
The majority of the focus in this chapter has been on managing the scope,
cost, and schedule of a project. The performance, or quality, of an operational
project is the fourth key element in successful project management. In general,
quality can be defined as meeting specified performance levels with minimal
variation and waste.

Mitigation plan
A set of tasks
intended to reduce
or eliminate the
effect of risk in a
project.

Risk Mitigation Plan

Pharmacogenomic drug
use is not as effective as
traditional methods.

Assistance will be sought from
• VVH hospital pharmacy
• Pharmaceutical firms
• Health plans

Computer systems do not
work.

• IT vendor has specialists on call who will be
flown to Riverview Clinic.

• Assistance will be sought from VVH IT
department.

Software modifications
are more expensive than
budgeted.

• Contingency funding has been earmarked in
clinic budget.

EXHIBIT 5.15
Risk Mitigation

Plan for the
Riverview

Clinic Pharma-
cogenomic Drug

Project

Chapter 5: Project Management 121

The fundamental tools for accomplishing these goals are described in
chapters 6 and 9. More advanced techniques for reducing variation in outcomes
can be found in chapter 9 (quality and Six Sigma), and chapter 10 discusses
tools for waste reduction (Lean).

Throughout the life of a project, the project team should monitor the
expected quality of the final product. Individual tasks that are part of a qual-
ity management function within a project should be created in the WBS.
For example, one task in the Riverview Clinic pharmacogenomics project is
to develop a monitoring system. This system will not only track the use of
pharmacogenomic drugs but also ascertain whether their use results in any
negative clinical effects.

Procurement
Many projects depend on outside vendors and contractors, so a procurement
system integrated with the organization’s project management system is essen-
tial. The organization’s purchasing or procurement department can be helpful
in this process as well. Procurement staff have developed templates for many of
the processes described in the following paragraphs. They also have knowledge
of the latest legal constraints an organization may face. However, the most useful
attribute of the procurement department may be the frequency with which it
executes the purchasing cycle. By performing this task frequently, its staff have
developed expertise in the process and are aware of common pitfalls to avoid.

Contracting
Once an organization has decided to contract with a vendor for a portion of a
project, three basic types of contracting are available. The fixed-price contract is
an agreement that features a lump sum payment for the performance of speci-
fied tasks. Fixed-price contracts sometimes contain incentives for early delivery.

Cost-reimbursement contracts call for payment to be made to the vendor
on the basis of the vendor’s direct and indirect costs of delivering the service
for a specified task. Clearly documenting in advance how the vendor will cal-
culate its costs is important.

The most open-ended type of contract is known as a time-and-materials
contract. Here, the task itself may be difficult to define, and the contractor is
reimbursed for her actual time, materials, and overhead. A time-and-materials
contract is commonly used for remodeling an older building, where the con-
tractor is not certain of what she will find in the walls. Great caution and
monitoring are needed when an organization uses this type of contracting.

Any contract should contain a statement of work (SOW). The SOW
contains a detailed scope statement, including WBS, for the work to be per-
formed by the contractor. It also includes expected quantity and quality levels,

Statement of work
(SOW)
A detailed set of
tasks, expected
outcomes, dates,
and costs of a
project undertaken
by an external
contractor.

Healthcare Operat ions Management122

performance data, task durations, work locations, and other details used to
monitor the work of the contractor.

Selecting a Vendor
Once a preliminary SOW has been developed, the organization solicits propos-
als and selects a vendor. A useful first step is to issue a request for information
(RFI) to as many possible vendors as the project team can identify. The RFIs
generate responses from vendors about their products and experience with
similar organizations. On the basis of these responses, the number of feasible
vendors can be reduced to a manageable set for consideration.

A more formal request for proposal (RFP) can then be issued to the
remaining vendors under consideration for the task. The RFP asks for a detailed
proposal, or bid. The following criteria should be applied in the process of
reviewing RFPs and awarding the contract:

• Does the vendor clearly understand the organization’s requirements?
• What is the vendor’s total cost estimate for completing the task?
• Does the vendor have the capability and correct technical approach to

deliver the requested service?
• Does the vendor have a management approach to monitor successful

execution of the SOW?
• Can the vendor provide maintenance or meet future requirements and

changes?
• Does the vendor provide references from clients that are similar to the

contracting organization?
• Does the vendor assert intellectual or proprietary property rights in the

products it supplies?

Project Management Office
Many types of organizations outside the healthcare industry (e.g., architecture,
consulting) are primarily project oriented. Such organizations often have a
centralized project management office (PMO) to oversee the work of their
staff. Because healthcare delivery organizations are primarily operational, the
majority do not use this structure.

However, departments in large hospitals and clinics, such as IT and
quality, have begun to use a centralized project office approach. In addition,
some organizations have designated and trained project leaders in Six Sigma
or Lean techniques. These project leaders are assigned from a central PMO.

PMOs provide a single structure through which to monitor progress
on all projects in an organization and reallocate resources as needed when

Chapter 5: Project Management 123

projects encounter problems. They also serve as a resource for the training
and development of project managers. PMOs support the project manager in
many ways, including but not limited to the following (PMI 2013):

• Managing shared resources across all projects administered by the PMO
• Identifying and developing project management methodology, best

practices, and standards
• Coaching, mentoring, training, and oversight
• Developing and managing project policies, procedures, templates, and

other shared documentation
• Monitoring compliance with project management standards, policies,

procedures, and templates via project audits
• Coordinating communications across all projects

Another useful function of a PMO is that it maintains an information
system that can provide reports to project stakeholders and senior management.
The contents of this information system may include the following:

• Progress reports on individual projects (schedule, cost, performance)
• Risk management (tasks with high risks and their current status)
• Performance failures and remediation steps
• A log of lessons learned

Project Closure
A successful project should have an organized closure process, which includes
a formal stakeholder presentation and approval process. In addition, the proj-
ect sponsor should sign off at project completion to signify that performance
levels have been achieved and all deliverables have been received. During
the closeout process, special attention should be paid to project staff, who
will be interested in knowing their next assignment. A disciplined handoff of
staff from one project to the next allows successful completion of the closure
process.

All documents related to the project should be indexed and stored. This
process can be helpful if outside vendors have participated in the project and
a contract dispute arises in the future. Historical documents can also provide
a good starting point for the next version of a project.

The project team should conduct a final session to identify lessons
learned—good and bad—in the execution of the project. These lessons should
be included in the project documentation and shared with other project man-
agers in the organization.

Healthcare Operat ions Management124

Agile Project Management

In some situations, knowledge of the tasks necessary for project success is not
available as the project is chartered and scheduled. In these cases, agile project
management often works better than other methods. Agile project management
is adaptive, in contrast to the predictive style of formal project management.

Characteristics of agile project management include the following:

• Customer satisfaction is achieved by rapid, continuous delivery of
services or new processes.

• Newly prototyped services or processes are delivered frequently (weekly
rather than monthly).

• The effectiveness and ease of use of these prototypes are the principal
measures of progress.

• The project team can easily incorporate late changes.
• The project team and customer interact informally and frequently.
• The project team and customer are colocated.
• The project team is cross-functional across the organization.
• Continuous attention is given to technical excellence and good design

in the new services or processes.
• The project team regularly adapts to changing circumstances.

Exhibit 5.16 illustrates agile project management.
Agile project management is best used for “mysteries,” to which there

are no known answers (e.g., finding the best treatment for an emerging disease),

Build prototype service
or process.

Collaborate with customers
to define and refine

requirements.

Does it meet
expected

performance?
Implement—go

to scale.

N
o

Yes

Charter project.
Determine expected time

frame, cost, and performance.

EXHIBIT 5.16
Agile Project

Management

Chapter 5: Project Management 125

as opposed to “puzzles,” to which the solution is known but complex (e.g.,
building a new clinic).

Innovation Centers

Mergers and consolidations of providers and health plans have increased since
the enactment of the Affordable Care Act in 2010. A key strategic objective
of the law was to encourage the development of systems of care, as they have
demonstrated superior cost-effectiveness and quality. However, as these systems
have proliferated, their leaders have realized that growth in size also frequently
means growth in bureaucracy and the consequent loss of rapid innovation.

To remedy this dilemma, many systems have created innovation centers.
The Commonwealth Fund conducted a survey in 2014–2015 of innovation
centers in 31 healthcare systems. The authors of this study reviewed charac-
teristics of these centers and determined that, in general, the innovation cen-
ters were “‘places that are working to discover, develop, test, and/or spread
new models of care delivery’—in hospitals, clinics, and patients’ homes. The
innovations they test may be internally developed or adopted from elsewhere”
(Commonwealth Fund 2015). These centers focused on a variety of topics, as
displayed in exhibit 5.17.

Care coordination
Disease-specific outcomes

Access
Patient engagement

Workflow efficiencies
Population health

Clinical decision support
Intraprofessional communication

Utilization
Home-based care

Wellness
Patient safety

Devices
Community-based services

Price transparency
Other responses

0% 50%

30%
35%

55%
61%
61%

65%
65%

68%
71%

74%
77%
77%

84%
87%
87%

90%

100%

Percentage of Innovation Center Survey Respondents

EXHIBIT 5.17
Focus of
Innovation
Centers

Source: Commonwealth Fund (2015). Used with permission.

Note: Percentages based on 31 innovation center respondents. “Other responses” include spending
reductions, the uninsured, helping seniors age in place, teaching/education, data mining, and data
analysis.

Healthcare Operat ions Management126

Disruptive Innovation
McLaughlin and Militello (2015) conducted a review of disruptive innovation
literature and noted the following:

Clayton Christensen [(Christensen, Grossman, and Hwang 2008)] introduced the con-

cept of creative disruption to the healthcare industry. His basic theory of disruption

is a process by which complicated, expensive products and services are transformed

into simple, affordable ones. Disruptive solutions emerge almost always through

new companies or totally independent business units that create new, value-added

processes. However, significant disruption has arrived in the healthcare sector in a

way not imagined by Christensen. It came from the Affordable Care Act (ACA). . . .

Under Christensen’s idea of disruptive solutions, it seems that managers should

be at the forefront of knitting together new concepts of cost containment, quality,

and exceptional service to transform their organization into providers of simple and

affordable solutions within the context of ACA principles.

The review identified three key steps for creating effective disruptive
innovations in healthcare (McLaughlin and Militello 2015):

1. Test the business model against the needs of the customer.
2. Pilot test one or two ideas to create or counter disruption.
3. Look across disciplines and organizational boundaries for ideas and

encouragement.

All of the project management tools and approaches contained in this chap-
ter are being used by organizations to undergird the work of innovation centers.

The Project Manager and Project Team

The project manager’s role is pivotal to the success of any project, as he must
select, develop, and nurture high-functioning team members, among other
critical activities. The project manager’s skills also include running effective
meetings and facilitating optimal dialogue during these meetings.

Team Skills
A project manager can take on multiple roles in a project. In many smaller
healthcare projects, the project manager is the person who actually accomplishes
several of the project tasks. In larger or more complex projects, the project
manager’s job is solely to lead and manage the individuals performing the
tasks. Slack (2005) provides a useful matrix to determine what role a project
manager should assume in projects of varying sizes (exhibit 5.18).

Chapter 5: Project Management 127

Team Structure and Authority
Team members may be selected and the project structure determined by the
project manager, but in many cases they are outlined by the project sponsor and
other members of senior management. Formally documenting the team makeup
and how team members are assigned in the project charter and scope is impor-
tant in clarifying team roles for both team members and project stakeholders.

A number of key issues must be addressed as the project team is formed.
The most important is the project manager’s level of authority to make deci-
sions. Can the project manager commit resources, or must he ask senior man-
agers or department heads each time a new resource is needed? Is the budget
controlled by the project manager, or does a central financial authority control
it? Is administrative support available to the team, or do the project team
members need to perform these tasks themselves?

Finally, care should be taken to avoid overscheduling team members.
All members must have the availability to work on the project as expected.

Team Meetings
A weekly or biweekly project team meeting is highly recommended to keep a
project on schedule. At this meeting, the project’s progress can be monitored
and discussed and actions initiated to resolve deviations and problems.

All good team meetings include a comprehensive agenda and a complete
set of minutes. Minutes should be action oriented (e.g., “The schedule slippage
for task 17 will be resolved by assigning additional resources from the temporary
pool”). In addition, the individual accountable for following through on the issue
should be identified. If the meeting’s deliberations and actions are confidential,
everyone on the team should be aware of the policy and adhere to it uniformly.

The decision-making process should be clear and understood by all
team members. In some situations, all major decisions are made by the project
manager. In others, team members may have veto power if they represent a
major department that is expected to commit resources. Some major decisions
may require review and approval by individuals external to the project team.
The use of data and analytical techniques is strongly encouraged as part of the
decision-making process.

Variable Small Project Medium Project Large Project

Effort range 40–400 hours 400–2,400 hours 2,400+ hours

Duration 1 week–3 months 3–6 months 6 months–2 years

Project leader
role

“Doer” with some
help

Manage and “do
some”

Manage

Source: Slack (2005). Used with permission.

EXHIBIT 5.18
Project
Manager’s Role
Based on Effort
and Duration of
a Project

Healthcare Operat ions Management128

Team members need to take responsibility for the success of the team.
They can demonstrate this acceptance by following through on commitments,
contributing to discussions, actively listening, and giving and being receptive to
feedback. Everyone on a team should feel that she has a voice, and the project
manager needs to lead the meeting in such a way as to balance the “air time”
among team members. This approach requires occasionally interrupting—
politely and artfully—the wordy team member and summarizing her point; it
also means calling on the silent team member to solicit input.

At the end of a meeting, one useful activity is to evaluate the meeting
itself. The project manager and team can spend a few minutes reviewing ques-
tions such as the following:

• Did we accomplish our purpose?
• Did we take steps to maintain our gains?
• Did we document actions, results, and ideas?
• Did we work together successfully?
• Did we share our results with others?
• Did we recognize everyone’s contribution and celebrate our

achievements?

Leadership Skills
Although this book is not primarily concerned with leadership, clearly the
project manager must be able to lead a project forward. Effective project
leadership requires the following skills:

• The ability to think critically using complex information
• The strategic capability to take a long-term view of the organization
• The ability to gain and maintain a systems view of the organization and

its environment (discussed in chapter 1)
• The ability to create and lead change
• The capacity to understand oneself to permit positive interactions,

conflict resolution, and effective communication
• The ability to mentor and develop employees into high-performing

team members
• The ability to develop a performance-based culture

Additional resources on leadership are available from Health Administration
Press at www.ache.org/pubs/topic.cfm#Leadership.

Chapter 5: Project Management 129

Conclusion

This chapter provides a basic introduction to the science and discipline of
project management. The field is finding a home in healthcare IT departments
and has a history in construction projects. Successful healthcare organizations
of the future will use this rigorous methodology to make significant changes
and improvements throughout their operations.

Discussion Questions

1. Who should be included as members of the project team, key
stakeholders, and project sponsors for a clinical project in a physician’s
office? In a hospital? Support your choices.

2. Identify five common risks in healthcare clinical projects, and develop
contingency responses for each.

Exercises

1. Download the project charter and project
schedule from the companion website, and
perform the following activities:
a. Complete the missing portions of the

charter.
b. Develop a risk assessment and mitigation plan.
c. Add tasks to the schedule for those areas that require more

specificity.
d. Apply resources to each task, determine the critical path, and devise

a method to crash the project to reduce its total duration by 20
percent.

2. Review the Institute for Healthcare Improvement website (see especially
www.ihi.org/knowledge/Pages/ImprovementStories/default.aspx),
and select one of the quality improvement projects described. Although
you will not know all the details of the organization that executed this
project, create a charter document for your chosen project.

3. For the project identified in exercise 2, create a feasible WBS and
project schedule. Enter the schedule into Microsoft Project.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Healthcare Operat ions Management130

References

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Management? The Search for Quality Publications Relevant to Nontraditional
Industries.” Project Management Journal 39 (3): 6–27.

Christensen, C. M., J. H. Grossman, and J. Hwang. 2008. The Innovator’s Prescription: A
Disruptive Solution for Health Care. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Commonwealth Fund. 2015. “Findings from a Survey of Health Care Delivery Innova-
tion Centers.” Published April 28. www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/
chartbooks/2015/apr/survey-of-health-care-delivery-innovation-centers.

Gapenski, L. C., and K. L. Reiter. 2016. Health Care Finance: An Introduction to Accounting
and Financial Management. Chicago: Health Administration Press.

Lister Hill National Center for Biomedical Communications, US National Library of
Medicine, National Institutes of Health. 2016. “Help Me Understand Genetics:
Precision Medicine.” Published August 16. https://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/handbook/
precisionmedicine.pdf.

McLaughlin, D. B., and J. Militello. 2015. “Thinking Beyond the Affordable Care Act.”
Journal of Healthcare Management 60 (3): 160–63.

Project Management Institute (PMI). 2015. “Connections: Project Management Institute
2014 Annual Report.” Accessed August 1, 2016. www.pmi.org/~/media/PDF/
Publications/pmi-annual-report-2014.ashx.

———. 2013. 2013 Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge: PMBOK® Guide—
Fifth Edition. Newton Square, PA: PMI.

Quora. 2016. “How Many People Have PMP Certification in the U.S.?” Accessed August
1. www.quora.com/How-many-people-have-PMP-certification-in-the-U-S.

Slack, M. P. 2005. Personal communication, August 15.
Thomson, L. 2013. “HealthCare.gov Diagnosis: The Government Broke Every Rule of

Project Management.” Forbes. Published December 3. www.forbes.com/sites/
lorenthompson/2013/12/03/healthcare-gov-diagnosis-the-government-broke-
every-rule-of-project-management/#2e03a6aa3d44.

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Further Reading

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New-Product Development.” Harvard Business Review 86 (3): 96–102.

Chapter 5: Project Management 131

Chesbrough, H. W., and A. R. Garman. 2009. “How Open Innovation Can Help You Cope
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Curlee, W., and R. L. Gordon. 2010. Complexity Theory and Project Management. Hobo-
ken, NJ: Wiley.

Kendrick, T. 2010. The Project Management Tool Kit: 100 Tips and Techniques for Getting
the Job Done Right, 2nd edition. New York: AMACOM American Management
Association.

Meredith, J. R., and S. J. Mantel. 2009. Project Management: A Managerial Approach, 7th
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ment and Its Success—A Conceptual Framework.” International Journal of Project
Management 28 (8): 807–17.

Taylor, H. 2006. “Risk Management and Problem Resolution Strategies for IT Projects:
Prescription and Practice.” Project Management Journal 37 (5): 49–63.

Thamhain, H. J., and D. L. Wilemon. 1975. “Conflict Management in Project Life Cycles.”
Sloan Management Review 16 (3): 31.

Wheelwright, S. C., and K. B. Clark. 1992. “Creating Project Plans to Focus Product
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Wills, K. R. 2010. Essential Project Management Skills. Boca Raton, FL: Taylor & Francis.
Young, T. L. 2010. Successful Project Management, 3rd edition. London: Kogan Page.

PART

III
PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT

TOOLS, TECHNIQUES, AND
PROGRAMS

CHAPTER

135

TOOLS FOR PROBLEM SOLVING AND
DECISION MAKING

Operations Management
in Action

At Allegheny General Hospital in Pitts-
burgh, the organization’s two intensive
care units had been averaging about 5.5
infections per 1,000 patient days, most
of them bloodstream infections from
catheters. That infection rate was a bit
higher than the Pittsburgh average but a
bit lower than the national average, says
Dr. Richard Shannon, chair of medicine
at Allegheny General.

Over the prior 12 months, 37
patients, already some of the sickest
people in the hospital, had a total of 49
infections. Of those patients, 51 percent
died. Shannon and the staff in the two
units—doctors, residents, and nurses—
applied the Toyota Production System
root-cause analysis process, investigat-
ing each new infection immediately.

Their main conclusion was that
femoral intravenous lines, inserted into
an artery near the groin, had a particu-
larly high rate of infection. The team
made an all-out effort to replace these
lines with less risky ones in the arm
or near the collarbone. Shannon, who
oversaw the two units, gave the direc-
tive to keep femoral lines to an absolute
minimum. The result was a 90 percent decrease in the number of
infections after just 90 days of using the new procedures.

Source: Adapted from Wysocki (2004).

6
OVE RVI EW

This chapter introduces the basic tools associated with problem solv-

ing and decision making. Much of the work of healthcare profession-

als is just that—making decisions and solving problems—and in an

ever-changing landscape, that work must be accomplished well and

quickly. A structured approach can enable problem solving and deci-

sion making that is efficient and effective.

Major topics in this chapter include the following:

• The decision-making process, with a focus on framing the

problem or issue

• Mapping techniques, including mind mapping, process mapping,

activity mapping, and service blueprinting

• Problem identification tools, including root-cause analysis (RCA),

failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), and the theory of

constraints (TOC)

• Analytical tools, such as optimization using linear programming

and decision analysis

• Force field analysis to address implementation issues

This chapter helps readers gain a basic understanding of vari-

ous problem-solving tools and techniques, enabling them to

• frame questions or problems,

• analyze a problem and various solutions to it, and

• implement one or more of those solutions.

The tools and techniques outlined in this chapter should pro-

vide a basis for tackling difficult, complicated problems.

Healthcare Operat ions Management136

Decision-Making Framework

A structured, rational approach to problem solving and decision making includes
the following steps:

1. Identify and frame the issue or problem.
2. Generate or determine possible courses of action, and evaluate those

alternatives.
3. Choose and implement the best solution or alternative.
4. Review and reflect on the previous steps and outcomes.

Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making and How
to Overcome Them (Russo and Schoemaker 1989) outlines these steps (exhibit
6.1) and the barriers encountered in decision making (exhibit 6.2).

Framing

Typical amount of time: 5%

Recommended amount of
time: 20%

Structuring the question. This means defining what
must be decided and determining in a preliminary way
what criteria would cause you to prefer one option over
another. In framing, good decision makers think about
the viewpoint from which they and others will look at the
issue and decide which aspects they consider important
and which they do not. Thus, they inevitably simplify the
world.

Gathering intelligence

Typical amountof time: 45%

Recommended amount of
time: 35%

Seeking both the knowable facts and the reasonable
estimates of “unknowables” that you will need to make
the decision. Good decision makers manage intelligence
gathering with deliberate effort to avoid such failings as
overconfidence in what they currently believe and the
tendency to seek information that confirms their biases.

Coming to conclusions

Typical amountof time: 40%

Recommended amount of
time: 25%

Sound framing and good intelligence don’t guarantee
a wise decision. People cannot consistently make good
decisions using seat-of-the-pants judgment alone,
even with excellent data in front of them. A systematic
approach forces you to examine many aspects and often
leads to better decisions than hours of unorganized
thinking would.

Learning from feedback

Typical amount of time: 10%

Recommended amount of
time: 20%

Everyone needs to establish a system for learning from
the results of past decisions. This usually means keeping
track of what you expected would happen, systematically
guarding against self-serving explanations, then making
sure you review the lessons your feedback has produced
the next time a similar decision comes along.

Source: Russo and Schoemaker (1989).

EXHIBIT 6.1
Decision

Elements and
Activities

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 137

The plan-do-check-act process for continuous improvement (discussed
in depth in chapter 10), the define-measure-analyze-improve-control process
of Six Sigma (chapter 9), and process improvement (chapter 11) all follow the
same basic steps as presented in this chapter for the decision-making process.
The tools and techniques found in this book can be used not only in the process
of decision making but also to help in gathering the right information to make
optimal decisions and learn from those decisions. Often, the learning step in
the decision-making process is neglected, but it should not be. It is important

Framing the Question
Plunging in—Beginning to gather information and reach conclusions without first tak-
ing a few minutes to think about the crux of the issue you’re facing.

Frame blindness—Setting out to solve the wrong problem because you have created a
mental framework for your decision with little thought, which causes you to overlook
the best options or lose sight of important objectives.

Lack of frame control—Failing to consciously define the problem in more ways than one
or being unduly influenced by the frames of others.

Gathering Intelligence
Overconfidence in your judgment—Failing to correct key factual information because
you are too sure of your assumptions and opinions.

Shortsighted shortcuts—Relying inappropriately on “rules of thumb,” such as implicitly
trusting the most readily available information or anchoring too much on convenient
facts.

Coming to Conclusions
Shooting from the hip—Believing you can keep straight in your head all the informa-
tion you’ve discovered, and therefore you “wing it” rather than follow a systematic
procedure.

Group failure—Assuming that with many smart people involved, good choices will fol-
low automatically, and therefore you fail to manage the group decision process.

Learning/Failing to Learn from Feedback
Fooling yourself about feedback—Failing to interpret the evidence from past outcomes
for what it really says, either because you’re protecting your ego or because you are
tricked by hindsight.

Not keeping track—Assuming that experience will make its lessons available automati-
cally, and therefore you fail to keep systematic records to track results of your decisions
and fail to analyze these results in ways that will reveal their true lessons.

Failure to audit your decision process—You fail to create an organized approach to
understanding your own decision making, so you remain constantly exposed to all the
aforementioned mistakes.

EXHIBIT 6.2
The Ten Barriers
to Brilliant
Decision
Making and the
Key Elements
into Which They
Fall

Source: Russo and Schoemaker (1989).

Healthcare Operat ions Management138

to evaluate and analyze both the decision made and the process(es) used to
reach the decision to ensure learning and enable continuous improvement.

Framing
The frame of a problem or decision encompasses the assumptions, attitudes,
and preconceived limits that an individual or a team brings to the analyses.
These assumptions can stifle the ability to solve the problem by reducing or
eliminating creativity and causing the decision maker(s) to overlook possibili-
ties. Alternatively, these assumptions can aid in problem solving by eliminating
wildly improbable paths. That said, they usually hinder a team’s ability to find
the best solution or even a possible solution.

Millions of dollars and working hours are wasted in finding solutions to
the wrong problems. An ill-defined problem or mistaken premise can eliminate
promising solutions before they are even considered. People tend to identify
convenient problems and find solutions that are familiar to them rather than
looking more deeply for problems that are meaningful to solve.

People also have a tendency to want to do something; quick and decisive
action is seen as necessary in today’s rapidly changing environment. Leaping
to the solutions before taking the time to properly frame the problem usually
results in suboptimal solutions.

However, framing the problem can be difficult, as it requires an under-
standing of the issue at hand. If the problem is well understood, the solution is
more likely to be obvious; therefore, when framing a problem, it is important
to approach it in an expansive way by soliciting many different viewpoints and
considering many possible scenarios, causes, and solutions. The tools outlined
in this chapter are designed to help with this process.

Mapping Techniques
Mind Mapping
Tony Buzan is credited with developing the mind-mapping technique (Buzan
1991; Buzan and Buzan 1994). Mind mapping develops thoughts and ideas
in a nonlinear fashion and typically uses pictures or phrases to organize and
further develop those thoughts. In this structured brainstorming technique,
ideas are organized on a “map” and the connections between them are made
explicit. Mind mapping can be an effective technique for problem solving
because thinking linearly is not necessary. Making connections that are not
obvious or linear can lead to innovative solutions.

Mind mapping starts with the issue to be addressed placed in the cen-
ter of the map. Ideas on causes, solutions, and so on radiate from the central
theme. Questions in the form of who, what, where, why, when, and how are
often helpful for problem solving. Exhibit 6.3 illustrates a mind map related
to high accounts receivables.

Mind mapping
A nonlinear
technique used to
develop thoughts
and ideas by
placing pictures or
phrases on a map
to show logical
connections.

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 139

Process Mapping
A process map, or flowchart, is a graphic depiction of a process showing inputs,
outputs, and steps in the process. Depending on the purpose of the map, it
can be high level or detailed. Exhibit 6.4 shows a high-level process map for

Process map
A graphic
depiction of a
process showing
the sequence of
events, including
tasks, decisions,
and other activities
from inputs to
outputs. A process
map is a type of
flowchart.

Data
entry
error

Doctor
coding

Incorrect
coding

Incorrect
information

Documentation
problems

Insufficient
information

Electronic
medical
records

Slow
billing

Slow
payment

or no
payment

Claim
denied

Procedure
not medically

necessary

Complicated
system

New
computer
systems

Funding
Missing
revenue

Private
insurance

Identify
and fix

systematic
problems

Medicare/
Medicaid

No
insurance

Type of
insurance

High
accounts

receivable

Procedure
not

covered

EXHIBIT 6.3
Mind Map:
High Accounts
Receivables

Note: Diagram created in Inspiration by Inspiration Software, Inc.

Healthcare Operat ions Management140

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System’s (VVH) Riverview Clinic, and
exhibit 6.5 shows a more detailed map of the check-in process at the clinic.

Process maps offer a clear picture of what activities are carried out as
part of the process, where they occur, and how they are performed. Typically,
process maps are used to understand and optimize a process. The process is
commonly charted from the viewpoint of the material, information, or cus-
tomer being processed (often the patient in healthcare) or the staff member
carrying out the work. Process mapping is one of the seven basic quality tools
(see chart below) and an integral part of most improvement initiatives (e.g.,
Six Sigma, Lean, balanced scorecard, RCA, FMEA).

The steps for creating a process map or flowchart are as follows:

1. Assemble and train the team. The team should consist of people from all
areas and levels in the process of interest to ensure that the real process
is captured.

2. Determine the boundaries of the process (where it starts and ends) and the
level of detail desired. The level of detail desired, or needed, depends on
the question or problem the team is addressing.

3. Brainstorm the major process tasks and subtasks. List them, and then
arrange them in order. (Sticky notes are often helpful here.)

4. Create a formal chart. Once an initial flowchart has been generated,
the chart can be formally drawn using the standard symbols of

Physician exam
and consultation

Visit
complete

Wait

Patient
arrives

Patient
check-in

Wait

Move to
examining

room

Nurse does
preliminary

exam

Wait

EXHIBIT 6.4
Riverview Clinic

High-Level
Process Map

Seven Fundamental Quality Tools

• Check sheet
• Pareto diagram
• Histogram
• Scatterplot

• Process map
• Cause-and-effect diagram
• Run chart or control chart

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 141

process mapping (exhibit 6.6). (This formal graphic can be completed
most efficiently using software such as Microsoft Visio.) When first
developing a flowchart, the important point is to obtain an accurate
picture of the process rather than worrying about using the correct
symbols.

5. Make corrections. The formal flowchart should be checked for accuracy
by all relevant personnel. Often, inaccuracies are found in the flowchart
and must be corrected in this step.

6. Determine any need for additional information. Depending on the
purpose of the flowchart, data may need to be collected or information
added at this stage. Often, data specifically related to process
performance are collected and added to the flowchart.

Measures of Process Performance
Measures of process performance include throughput time, cycle time, and
percentage of value-added time (chapter 10). Another important measure of
process, subprocess, task, or resource performance is capacity utilization.
Capacity is the maximum possible amount of output (goods or services) that a
process or resource can produce or transform. Capacity measures can be based
on outputs or on the availability of inputs. For example, if a hospital’s food
service department or vendor can provide, at most, 1,000 meals in one day,
the food service has a capacity of 1,000 meals/day. If all magnetic resonance
images (MRIs) take one hour to perform, the MRI machine has a capacity of 24
MRIs/day. The choice of appropriate capacity measure varies with the situation.

Ideally, demand and capacity are perfectly matched. If demand is greater
than capacity, some customers will not be served. If capacity is greater than
demand, resources will be underutilized. In reality, perfectly matching demand

Capacity
utilization
The percentage
of time that a
resource (worker,
equipment, space,
etc.) or process
is actually busy
producing or
transforming
output.

HIPAA
forms

HIPAA
on file ?

No

Yes
Same

Wait

Move to
examining

room

Patient
arrives

Line?

ChangedNew

Medical
information

Insurance
information

No

Yes

Existing Infor-
mation

Patient
type

Wait

EXHIBIT 6.5
Riverview
Clinic Detailed
Process Map:
Patient Check-In

Healthcare Operat ions Management142

and capacity can be difficult because of fluctuations in demand. In a manufactur-
ing environment, inventory can be used to compensate for demand fluctuations.
In a service environment, this type of trade-off is not possible; therefore, excess
capacity or a flexible workforce is often required to meet demand fluctuations.
Advanced-access scheduling (chapters 10 and 12) is one way for healthcare
operations to more closely match capacity to demand.

Capacity utilization is defined as the percentage of time that a resource
(worker, equipment, space, etc.) or process is actually busy producing or trans-
forming output. If the hospital’s food service provides 800 meals/day, the
capacity utilization is 80 percent. If the MRI machine operates 18 hours/day,
the capacity utilization is 75 percent [(18 ÷ 24) × 100]. Generally, higher-
capacity utilization is better, but caution must be used in this evaluation. If the
hospital’s food service has a goal of 95 percent capacity utilization, it can meet
that goal by producing 950 meals/day, even if only 800 meals/day are actually
consumed and 150 meals are discarded. Obviously, this solution would not
result in the effective use of resources, but food service would have met its goal.

Typically, the more costly the resource, the greater is the importance
of maximizing capacity utilization. For example, in a hospital emergency

An oval is used to
show inputs/outputs

to the process or start/
end of the process.

A block arrow is
used to show a
transport.

Feedback
loop

A D-shape is
used to show
a delay.

An arrow shows the
direction of flow of

the process.

A
triangle

shows inventory.
For services,

it can represent
customer waiting.

End

A
diamond

is used to show
those points in the

process where a choice can
be made or alternative

paths can be
followed.

A
rectangle
is used to

show a
task or
activity.

EXHIBIT 6.6
Standard

Flowchart
Symbols

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 143

department, the most costly resource is often the physician. In this case, with
other resources (e.g., nurses, housekeeping staff, clerical staff) being less
expensive, maximizing the utilization of the physicians is more important than
maximizing the utilization of the other resources. In fact, underutilizing less
expensive resources in an effort to maximize the utilization of more expensive
resources is more economical. Simulation (chapter 11) can be used to help
determine the most effective use of various types of resources.

Cross-Functional Process Maps
The cross-functional process map, or “swim lane” map, is a specialized pro-
cess map that follows the flow of a process through the various departments
of the organization. The swim lanes indicated by the dashed lines between
departments show the work being completed by a particular department or
individual in the process. The swim lane chart is useful for viewing the number
of times an item is handed off between departments and how many times the
process is creating duplication and rework.

Exhibit 6.7 is an example of a presurgery holding room (the area where
patients are staged, vital signs are taken, consent forms are completed, surgery
type is confirmed, etc., just prior to entering surgery) for a Veterans Admin-
istration hospital.

Service Blueprinting
Service blueprinting (Shostack 1984) is a special form of process mapping (as
is value stream mapping, covered in chapter 10). Service blueprinting begins
by mapping the process from the point of view of the customer. The typical
purpose of a service blueprint is to identify points where the service might fail to
satisfy the customer and then redesign or add controls to the system to reduce
or eliminate the possibility of failure. The service blueprint separates onstage
actions (those visible to the customer) from backstage actions and support
processes (those not visible to the customer). A service blueprint specifies the
line of interaction, where the customer and service provider come together,
and the line of visibility, or what the customer sees or experiences—the tangible
evidence that influences perceptions of the quality of service (exhibit 6.8).

Problem Identification Tools
Root-Cause Analysis
Root-cause analysis (RCA) is a generic term used to describe structured,
step-by-step techniques for problem solving. It aims to determine and correct
the ultimate cause(s) of a problem, not just the visible symptoms, to ensure
that the problem does not recur. Specifically, RCA consists of determining what
happened, why it happened, and what can be done to prevent it from recurring.

Cross-functional
process map
A map that follows
the flow of a
process through
the various
departments of
the organization
using dashed lines
to show the work
being completed
by a particular
department or
individual in the
process. Also
called swim lane
process map.

Service
blueprinting
A style of process
mapping that
separates actions
into onstage
(visible to the
customer) and
backstage
(not visible to
the customer)
activities.

Root-cause
analysis (RCA)
A generic term
describing
structured, step-
by-step techniques
for problem
solving.

Healthcare Operat ions Management144

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Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 145

The Joint Commission (2013) requires all accredited organizations to
conduct an RCA of any sentinel event (an unexpected occurrence involving
death or serious physical or psychological injury, or the risk thereof) and pro-
vides tools to help an organization conduct that analysis. Not only are these
tools useful for resolving sentinel events and adhering to Joint Commission
requirements but they also provide a framework for any RCA. A variety of
commercial software is available for conducting RCAs.

Although an RCA can be conducted in many different ways, its basis is
always in asking why something happened, again and again, until the ultimate
cause is found. Typically, some element of the system or process, rather than
human error, is found to be the ultimate cause. The five whys technique and
cause-and-effect diagram are examples of tools used in RCA.

Five Whys Technique
The five whys technique is a simple yet powerful tool. It consists of asking
why the condition occurred, noting the answer, and then asking why for each
answer over and over (five times is a good guide) until the root causes are identi-
fied. Often, the reason for a problem is only a symptom of the real cause. This
technique can help eliminate the focus on symptoms, discover the cause, and
point the way to eliminating it and ensuring that the problem does not occur
again. The following list demonstrates how the five whys technique progresses:

1. A patient received the wrong medication.
– Why?

2. The doctor prescribed the wrong medication.
– Why?

3. Relevant information was missing from the patient’s chart.
– Why?

Five whys
technique
A technique that
uses a series of
logical questions
to find the
root cause of a
problem.

Customer
actions

Line of interaction
Customer gives
prescription to

clerk

Customer
receives
medicine

Pharmacist
gives medicine

to clerk

Pharmacist
fills

prescription

Clerk
enters
data

Clerk gives
prescription to

pharmacist

Clerk
retrieves
medicine

Clerk gives
medicine to

customer

Onstage
actions

Backstage
actions

Line of
visibility

EXHIBIT 6.8
Service
Blueprint

Healthcare Operat ions Management146

4. The patient’s most recent lab test results were not entered into the
chart.
– Why?

5. The lab technician sent the results, but they were in transit and the
patient’s record was not updated.

The root cause here is the time lag between the test and data entry.
Rather than simply concluding that the doctor made a mistake, find the root
cause to help determine different possible solutions to the problem. The system
may now be changed to increase the speed with which lab results are recorded
or, at least, to allow a note to be documented on the chart that lab tests have
been ordered but not yet recorded.

Cause-and-Effect Diagram
Using only the five whys technique for an RCA can be limiting because of the
assumption that an effect is the result of a single cause at each level of why.
Often, a set of causes is related to an effect. A cause-and-effect diagram can
overcome this limitation.

Typically, a team uses a cause-and-effect diagram to investigate and
eliminate a problem. The problem should be stated or framed as clearly as
possible, including who is involved and where and when the problem occurs,
to ensure that everyone on the team is attempting to solve the same problem.

One of the seven basic quality tools, the cause-and-effect diagram is
used to explore and display all of the potential causes of a problem. This type
of graphic is sometimes called an Ishikawa diagram (after its inventor, Kaoru
Ishikawa [1985]) or a fishbone diagram (because it looks like the skeleton
of a fish).

The problem or outcome of interest is the “head” of the fish. The rest
of the diagram consists of a horizontal line leading to the problem statement
and several branches, or “fishbones,” vertical to the main line. The branches
represent different categories of causes. The categories chosen may vary accord-
ing to the problem, but some categories are commonly used (exhibit 6.9).

Fishbone diagram
A graphical
technique used
to display the
relationship
between the
potential causes
of a problem and
the effect created
by the problem.
Sometimes called
Ishikawa diagram.

Service (Four Ps) Manufacturing (Six Ms)

Policies Machines

Procedures Methods

People Materials

Plant/technology Measurements

Mother Nature (environment)

Manpower (people)

EXHIBIT 6.9
Typical Cause-

and-Effect
Diagram

Categories

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 147

Possible causes are attached to the appropriate branches. Each possible
cause is examined to determine if a deeper cause lies behind it (stage C in
exhibit 6.10); subcauses are attached as additional bones. In the final diagram,
causes are arranged according to relationships and distance from the effect.
This arrangement can help identify areas to focus on and allow comparison of
the relative importance of different causes.

Cause-and-effect diagrams can also be drawn as tree diagrams. From
a single outcome, or trunk, branches extend to represent major categories of
inputs or causes that create that single outcome. These large branches then
lead to smaller and smaller branches of causes all the way out to twigs at the

Old inner-
city building

Lack of treatment
rooms

Elevators
broken

Wheelchairs
unavailable

Transport arrives late

Process takes
too long

Excessive paperwork

Unexpected patients

Wrong
patients

Staff not available

Corridor
blocked

Sick

Late

Disorganized files

Bureaucracy

Original appointment missed

Incorrect referrals

Lack of technology

Poor scheduling

Poor maintenance

HIPAA
regulations

Waiting time

Waiting time

Methods

Machines

Mother Nature
(environment)

Mother Nature
(environment)

Waiting time

Methods

Machines Manpower
(people)

Manpower
(people)

(C)

(A)

(B)

EXHIBIT 6.10
Cause-and-
Effect Example

Healthcare Operat ions Management148

ends. A process-type cause-and-effect diagram (exhibit 6.11) can be used to
investigate causes of problems at each step in a process. A process RCA is
similar to FMEA (as discussed in detail later) but is less quantitative in nature.

An example from VVH illustrates the cause-and-effect diagramming
process. The hospital has identified excessive waiting time as a problem, and a
team is assembled to address the issue. The problem is placed in the head of the
fish, as shown in exhibit 6.10, stage A. Next, branches are drawn off the large
arrow representing the main categories of potential causes. Typical categories
are shown in exhibit 6.10, stage B, but the categories selected should suit the
particular situation. Then, all of the possible causes inside each main category
are identified. Each cause should be thoroughly explored to identify the causes
of causes. This process continues, branching off into more and more causes of
causes, until every possible cause has been identified (stage C in exhibit 6.10).

Much of the value gained from building a cause-and-effect diagram
comes from undertaking the exercise itself with a team of people. A common
and deeper understanding of the problem develops, enabling ideas to emerge
for further investigation.

Once the cause-and-effect diagram is complete, an assessment of the
possible causes and their relative importance should be undertaken. Obvious,
easily fixable causes can be dealt with quickly. Additional data may be needed
to assess the more complex possible causes and solutions. A Pareto analysis
(chapter 7) of the various causes is often used to separate the vital few from
the trivial many.

Building a cause-and-effect diagram is not necessarily a onetime exercise.
The diagram can be used as a working document and updated as more data
are collected and various solutions are tried.

Order in
wrong place

Wrong test

Wrong
information

Phone busy

Undecipherable
handwriting

Dispatcher
busy

No forms

Technician unavailable

Pager does
not work

Long time
to obtain

test results

Dispatcher
sends to

technician

Secretary
calls

dispatcher

Doctor
orders test

EXHIBIT 6.11
Process-Type

Cause-and-
Effect Diagram

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 149

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
The failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) process was developed by
the US military in the late 1940s, originally aimed at equipment failure. More
recently, FMEA has been adopted by many service industries, including health-
care, to evaluate process failure. Hospitals accredited by The Joint Commission
are required to conduct at least one FMEA or similar proactive analysis annually
(JCR and JCI 2010). Whereas RCA is used to examine the underlying causes
of a particular event or failure, FMEA is used to identify the ways in which a
process (or piece of equipment) might potentially fail, and its goal is to elimi-
nate or reduce the severity of such a potential failure. By proactively looking
at the potential causes of failure, risk of failure is either eliminated or reduced.

A typical FMEA consists of the following steps:

1. Identify the process to be analyzed. Typically, this process is the highest
priority for the organization.

2. Assemble and train the team. Processes usually cross functional
boundaries; therefore, the analysis should be performed by a team of
relevant personnel. No one person or functional area has the knowledge
needed to perform the analysis.

3. Develop a detailed process flowchart, including all steps in the process.
4. Identify each step or function in the process.
5. Identify potential failures (or failure modes) at each step in the process.

Note that more than one failure may potentially occur at each step.
6. Determine the worst potential consequence (or effect) of each possible failure.
7. Identify the cause(s) (contributory factor) of each potential failure. An

RCA can be helpful in this step. Note that each potential failure may
have more than one cause.

8. Identify any failure “controls” that are present. A control reduces the
likelihood that causes or failures will occur, reduces the severity of an
effect, or enables the occurrence of a cause or failure to be detected
before it leads to the adverse effect.

9. Rate the severity of each effect (on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the
most severe). This rating should reflect the impact of any controls that
reduce the severity of the effect.

10. Rate the likelihood (occurrence score) that each cause will occur (on
a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being certain to occur). As with step 9,
this rating should reflect the impact of any controls that reduce the
likelihood of occurrence.

11. Rate the effectiveness of each control (on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being
an error-free detection system).

12. Multiply the three ratings by one another to obtain the risk priority
number (RPN) for each cause or contributory factor.

Failure mode and
effects analysis
(FMEA)
A technique
developed by
the US military
to identify the
ways in which a
process (or piece
of equipment)
might fail and to
determine how
best to mitigate
those risks.

Healthcare Operat ions Management150

13. Use the RPNs to prioritize problems for corrective action. All causes that
result in an effect with a severity of 10 should be high on the priority
list, regardless of RPN.

14. Develop an improvement plan to address the targeted causes (who,
when, how assessed, etc.).

Exhibit 6.12 is an example of an FMEA for patient falls from the Institute
for Healthcare Improvement (IHI). IHI provides an online interactive tool
for FMEA and shares many real-world examples that can be used as a basis for
FMEAs in other organizations (IHI 2016). The National Center for Patient
Safety (2015) of the US Department of Veterans Affairs has developed a less
complex FMEA process, which rates only the severity and probability of occur-
rence and uses the resulting number to prioritize problem areas.

Theory of Constraints
The theory of constraints (TOC) was first described in the business novel The
Goal (Goldratt and Cox 1986). The TOC maintains that every organization is
subject to at least one constraint that limits its movement toward or achieve-
ment of its goal. For many organizations, the goal is to make money now as
well as in the future. Some healthcare organizations may have a different, but
still identifiable, goal. Eliminating or alleviating the constraint can enable the
organization to move toward its goal. Constraints can be physical (e.g., the
capacity of a machine) or nonphysical (e.g., an organizational procedure).

Five steps are involved in the TOC:

1. Identify the constraint or bottleneck. What is the limiting factor stopping
the system or process from achieving the goal?

2. Exploit the constraint. Determine how to get the maximum performance
out of the constraint without major system changes or capital
improvements.

3. Subordinate everything else to the constraint. Other nonbottleneck resources
(or steps in the process) should be synchronized to match the output of
the constraint. Idleness at a nonbottleneck resource costs nothing, and
nonbottlenecks should never produce more than can be consumed by the
bottleneck resource. For example, if the operating room is a bottleneck
and it has an adjacent or associated surgical ward, a traditional view might
encourage filling the ward. However, nothing would be gained—and
operational losses would be incurred—by putting more patients on the
ward than the operating room can serve. Thus, the TOC solution is to
lower ward occupancy to match the operating room’s throughput, even if
resources (heating, lighting, fixed staff costs, etc.) seem to be wasted.

4. Elevate the constraint. Take some action (expend capital, hire more
people, etc.) to increase the capacity of the constraining resource until

Theory of
constraints (TOC)
The idea that
every organization
and process is
subject to at least
one constraint
that limits its
movement toward
or achievement of
its goal.

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 151

it is no longer the constraint. Some other factor will become the new
constraint.

5. Repeat the process for the new constraint.

The process must be reapplied, perhaps several times. Many constraints
are of an organization’s own making, through entrenched rules, policies, and

Source: IHI (2005). This material was accessed from the Institute for Healthcare Improvement’s
website, IHI.org. www.ihi.org/ihi/workspace/tools/fmea/ViewTool.aspx?ToolId=1248.

EXHIBIT 6.12
Patient Falls
FMEA

Healthcare Operat ions Management152

procedures that have developed over time. Avoid allowing inertia to become
one of those constraints.

The TOC and Operations Measurement
The TOC defines three operational measurements for organizations:

1. Throughput—the rate at which the system generates money, in the
form of selling price minus cost of raw materials (labor costs are part of
operating expense rather than throughput).

2. Inventory—the amount of money the system has invested in products
or services it will sell; inventory includes the products on hand as well as
buildings, land, and equipment.

3. Operating expense—the amount of money the system spends turning
inventory into throughput, including what is typically called overhead.

The following four measurements are then used to identify results for
the organization:

Net profit = Throughput − Operating expense
Return on investment = (Throughput − Operating expense) ÷ Inventory
Productivity = Throughput ÷ Operating expense
Turnover = Throughput ÷ Inventory

These measurements can help employees make local, or frontline, deci-
sions. A decision that results in increasing throughput, decreasing inventory, or
decreasing operating expense generally is a good decision for the organization.

The TOC has been applied in healthcare at both a macro and micro level
to analyze and improve systems. De Mast and colleagues (2011) developed a
model that demonstrated a 37 percent increase of patients through a system,
accounting for more than $300,000 in increased revenue. In a CT (computed
tomography) scanning department, the model was deployed to help improve
the utilization of the scanning room, which was identified as the constraint in
the process. The model raised utilization of the bottleneck from 88 percent
to more than 93 percent.

Stratton and Knight (2010) used the TOC to help improve patient
flow. The results of their study show a nearly 25 percent reduction in overall
length of stay—from 8.6 days to 6.3. In this instance, patient length of stay
was reduced because the hospital was able to keep the constraint working on
critical items by managing time effectively. Because the TOC focused on the
entire hospital system, the researchers were able to demonstrate the theory in
practice—and improve systems—by working on the discharge process. For a
surgical suite or an emergency department to serve more patients, it would
need to accommodate each patient with an available hospital room. This model

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 153

helped free up rooms so that patients could move through the system more
quickly than before the TOC was applied.

Another way to manage constraints in a system is to accept that a bot-
tleneck will always exist and to determine where it should be. Designing the
system so that the bottleneck can be managed or controlled is a powerful way
to deal with it.

Analytical Tools
Optimization
Optimization, or mathematical programming, is a technique used to deter-
mine the ideal allocation of limited resources given a desired goal. In other
words, of all possible resource allocations—people, money, or equipment—the
goal or objective is to find the allocation(s) that maximizes or minimizes some
numerical quantity, such as profit or cost.

Optimization problems are classified as linear or nonlinear depending
on whether the problem is linear with respect to the variables. In many cases,
it is not practically possible to determine an exact solution for optimization
problems; a variety of software packages offer algorithms to find good solutions.

Optimization models have three basic elements:

• An objective function—the quantity that needs to be minimized or
maximized

• The controllable inputs or decision variables that affect the value of the
objective function

• Constraints that limit the values that the decision variables can take on

A solution in which all of the constraints are satisfied is called a feasible
solution. Most algorithms used to solve these types of problems begin by find-
ing feasible solutions, and then they attempt to improve on those solutions
until a maximum or minimum is found.

Healthcare organizations need to maintain financial viability while work-
ing within various constraints on their resources. Optimization techniques can
help these organizations make the best allocation decisions. An example of how
linear programming can be used in a healthcare organization using Microsoft
Excel Solver follows.

Linear Programming Example
VVH wants to determine the optimal case mix for diagnosis-related groups
(DRGs) that will maximize profits. Limited resources (e.g., space, qualified
employees) are available to serve patients classified in the various DRGs, and
minimum levels of service (number of cases) must be achieved for each DRG
(exhibit 6.13).

Optimization
A technique used
to determine the
ideal allocation of
limited resources
(e.g., people,
money, equipment)
given a desired
goal. Also called
mathematical
programming.

Healthcare Operat ions Management154

Exhibit 6.14 shows that the respiratory DRG (DRGr) requires 7 hours
of diagnostic services, 1 intensive care unit (ICU) bed day, 5 routine bed days,
and 50 hours of nursing care. The profit for DRGr is $400, and the minimum
service level is 15 cases.

Respiratory
Coronay
Surgery

Birth/
Delivery

Alcohol/
Drug Abuse Available

Resources

Diagnostic
services (hours)

7 10 2 1 325

ICU bed days 1 2.5 0.5 0 55

Routine bed days 5 7 2 7 420

Nursing care
(hours)

50 88 27 50 3,800

Margin $400.00 $2,500.00 $300.00 $50.00

Minimum cases 15 10 20 10

Note: DRG = diagnosis-related group; ICU = intensive care unit.

EXHIBIT 6.13
DRG Linear

Programming
Problem Data

Note: DRG = diagnosis-related group; ICU = intensive care unit.

EXHIBIT 6.14
Excel Solver

Setup for
DRG Linear

Programming
Problem

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 155

The goal is to maximize profit, and the objective function is

($400 × DRGr) + ($2,500 × DRGcs) + ($300 × DRGbd) + ($50 × DRGada),

where the other DRGs are classified as coronary surgery (DRGcs), birth/
delivery (DRGbd), and alcohol/drug abuse (DRGada).

Diagnostic services:

(7 × DRGr) + (10 × DRGcs) + (2 × DRGbd) + (1 × DRGada) ≤ 325 (1)

ICU bed days:

(1 × DRGr) + (2.5 × DRGcs) + (0.5 × DRGbd) ≤ 55 (2)

Routine bed days:

(5 × DRGr) + (7 × DRGcs) + (2 × DRGbd) + (7 × DRGada) ≤ 420 (3)

Nursing care:

(50 × DRGr) + (88 × DRGcs) + (27 × DRGbd) + (50 × DRGada) ≤ 3,800 (4)

Respiratory minimum case level:

DRGr ≥ 15 (5)

Coronary surgery minimum case level:

DRGcs ≥ 10 (6)

Birth/delivery minimum case level:

DRGbd ≥ 20 (7)

Alcohol/drug abuse minimum case level:

DRGada ≥ 10 (8)

Exhibit 6.15 shows the Excel Solver setup of this problem. As previously
shown in exhibit 6.14, Solver finds that the hospital should provide service
for 15 DRGr cases, 12 DRGcs cases, 20 DRGbd cases, and 29 DRGada cases.
The total profit at the optimal case mix is

Healthcare Operat ions Management156

(15 × $400) + (12 × $2,500) + (20 × $300) + (29 × $50) = $43,450.

Information relating to the resource constraints is found in the computer
solution (exhibit 6.15). The amounts reported as slack, or surplus, provide
a measure of resource utilization. All available ICU bed days and hours of
nursing care will be used. However, 17 routine bed days and almost 31 hours
of diagnostic services will be unused. VVH may want to consider eliminating
some hours of diagnostic services. Constraints 5 through 8 relate to the mini-
mum service level for each DRG category. Slack values represent services that
should be provided in excess of a minimum level. Only the minimum levels for
birth/delivery and respiratory care should be provided. However, 2 additional
coronary surgery and 19 alcohol/drug abuse cases should be taken.

Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis (exhibit 6.16) examines the impact of varying the assump-
tions, or input variables, on the output of a model. In the exhibit, a sensitivity
analysis has been conducted to analyze the allocation and utilization of resources
(diagnostic service hours, ICU bed days, routine bed days, nursing care) in
relation to the objective function (total profit). Shadow prices (the Lagrange
multiplier in exhibit 6.16) show the dollar effect on total profit of adding or
deleting one unit of the resource. This analysis allows the organization to

Sensitivity
analysis
A tool that
examines
the impact of
independently
changing input
variables to see
their effect on the
output of a model.

Target Cell (Max)

Cell Name Original Value Final Value

00.052,3latoT nigraM9$I$ $ 43,454.00$

Adjustable Cells

Cell Name Original Value Final Value

$B$13 Optimal Cases Respiratory 1 15
$C$13 Optimal Cases Coronary Surgery 1 12
$D$13 Optimal Cases Birth/Delivery 1 20
$E$13 Optimal Cases Alcohol/Drug Abuse 1 29.08

Constraints

Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack

$I$4 Diagnostic Services (hours) Total 294.08 $I$4 ^=$G$4 Not Binding 30.92
5$I$55latoT syaD deB UCI5$I$ ^=$G$5 Binding 0

$I$6 Routine Bed Days Total 402.56 $I$6 ^=$G$6 Not Binding 17.44
$I$7 Nursing Care (hours) Total 3800 $I$7 ^=$G$7 Binding 0
$E$13 Optimal Cases Alcohol/Drug Abuse 29.08 $E$13

^

=$E$11 Not Binding 19.08
$D$13 Optimal Cases Birth/Delivery 20 $D$13

^

=$D$11 Binding 0
$C$13 Optimal Cases Coronary Surgery 12 $C$13

^

=$C$11 Not Binding 2
$B$13 Optimal Cases Respiratory 15 $B$13

^

=$B$11 Binding 0

Note: DRG = diagnosis-related group.

EXHIBIT 6.15
Excel Solver
Solution for
DRG Linear

Programming
Problem

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 157

weigh the relative benefits of adding resources. In this example, adding one
ICU bed day would increase total profit by $964.80, and adding one hour
of nursing care would increase total profit by $1. If the cost of either of these
options is less than the additional profit, the hospital should increase those
resources. Because slack is present in routine bed days and diagnostic services,
adding more of either of these resources would not change the total profit;
these resources are already in excess.

Shadow price information is also presented for the DRG minimum
service level requirements (the reduced gradient in exhibit 6.16). The shadow
price is −$614.80 for DRGr; total profit will decrease by $614.80 for each case
taken above the minimum level required in the DRGr category. The DRGr
category has a higher profit ($400) than the DRGada and, without this analy-
sis, the hospital might have mistakenly tried to serve more DGRr cases, to the
detriment of DRGada cases.

Optimization analysis also allows organizations to run what-if analyses.
For example, if a hospital wants to investigate the possibility of increasing beds
in its ICU, perhaps by decreasing routine beds, it could use optimization to
analyze the available choices.

Decision Analysis
Decision analysis is a process for examining and evaluating decisions in a struc-
tured manner. A decision tree is a graphic representation of the order of events
in a decision-making process. This structured process enables an organization
to evaluate the risks and rewards of choosing a particular course of action.

Decision analysis
A structured
process for
examining and
evaluating
decisions.

Decision tree
A graphical
representation of
the order of future
and current events
for how decisions
are made.

Adjustable Cells

Final
Value

Reduced
GradientCell Name

$B$13 Optimal Cases Respiratory 15 –614.8
$C$13 Optimal Cases Coronary Surgery 12 0
$D$13 Optimal Cases Birth/Delivery 20 –209.4
$E$13 Optimal Cases Alcohol/Drug Abuse 29.08 0

Constraints

Final
Value

Lagrange
MultiplierCell Name

$I$4 Diagnostic Services (hours) Total 294.08 0
8.46955latoTsyaDdeBUCI5$I$

$I$6 Routine Bed Days Total 402.56 0
$I$7 Nursing Care (hours) Total 3800 1

EXHIBIT 6.16
Sensitivity
Analysis for
DRG Linear
Programming
Problem

Note: DRG = diagnosis-related group; ICU = intensive care unit.

Healthcare Operat ions Management158

In the construction of a decision tree, events are linked from left to right
in the order in which they would occur. Three types of events, represented
by nodes, can take place: decision or choice events (squares), chance events
(circles), and outcomes (triangles). Probabilities of chance events occurring
and benefits or costs for event choices and outcomes are associated with each
branch extending from a node. The result is a tree structure with branches for
each event extending to the right.

A simple example helps illustrate this process. A health maintenance
organization (HMO) is considering the economic benefits of a preventive
influenza vaccination program. If the program is not offered, the estimated
cost to the HMO if a flu outbreak occurs is $8 million with a probability of
occurrence of 0.4 (40 percent) and $12 million with a probability of 0.6 (60
percent). The program is estimated to cost $7 million, and the probability of
a flu outbreak occurring is 0.7 (70 percent). If a flu outbreak does occur and
the HMO offers the program afterward, it will still cost the organization $7
million, but the resulting costs to the HMO would be reduced to $4 million
with a probability of 0.4 (40 percent) or $6 million with a probability of 0.6
(60 percent). What should the HMO decide? The decision tree for the HMO
vaccination program is shown in exhibit 6.17.

HMO
vaccination

decision

Program

Program

No program No program

Flu outbreak

No flu outbreak

Flu outbreak

No flu outbreak A

B

C

D

Note: The tree diagrams in exhibits 6.17 through 6.21 were drawn with the help of PrecisionTree, a
software product of Palisade Corp., Ithaca, NY: www.palisade.com.

EXHIBIT 6.17
HMO

Vaccination
Program

Decision Tree 1

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 159

The probability estimates for each chance node, benefits (in this case,
costs) of each decision branch, and outcomes at the end of each branch are
added to the tree (exhibit 6.18).

The value of a node can be calculated once the values for all subsequent
nodes are found. The value of a decision node is the largest value of any branch
out of that node. The assumption is that the decision that maximizes the
benefits will be made. The value of a chance node is the expected value of the
branches out of that node. Working from right to left, the value of all nodes
in the tree can be calculated. The expected value of chance node 6 is [0.6 ×
(–12)] + [0.4 × (–8)] = –10.4. The expected value of chance node 5 is [0.6 ×
(–6)] + [0.4 × (–4)] = –5.2. The expected value of the secondary vaccination
program is –7 + (–5.2) = –12.2, and the expected value of not implementing
the secondary vaccination program is –10.4. Therefore, at decision node 4,
the choice would be to not implement the secondary vaccination program.

At chance node 3 (no initial vaccination program), the expected value is
[0.7 × (–10.4)] + (0.3 × 0) = –7.28. The expected value at chance node 2 is 0.7 ×
0 + 0.3 × 0 = 0, and the expected value of the initial vaccination program branch is
–7 + 0 = –7. Therefore, at decision node 1, the choice would be to implement the
initial vaccination program at a cost of $7 million, as choosing not to implement
the initial vaccination program is expected to cost $7.28 million (exhibit 6.19).

HMO
vaccination

decision

Program

Program

No program No program

Flu outbreak

Flu outbreak

A

B

C

D

–$12,000,000

–$8,000,000

$0

30.0%

30.0%

70.0%

70.0%

60.0%

60.0%

40.0%

40.0%

$0

$0

1

2

3

4

5

6

$0

$0

$0

–$4,000,000

–$6,000,000

–$7,000,000

–$7,000,000

EXHIBIT 6.18
HMO
Vaccination
Program
Decision Tree 2

Healthcare Operat ions Management160

A risk analysis on this decision-making process can then be conducted
(exhibit 6.20). Choosing to implement the vaccination program results in a
cost of $7 million with a probability of 1. Choosing not to implement the
initial vaccination program results in a cost of $12 million with a probability
of 0.42, $8 million with a probability of 0.28, and no cost with a probability
of 0.3. Choosing not to implement the vaccination program would be less
costly 30 percent of the time, but 70 percent of the time, implementing it
would be less costly.

A sensitivity analysis might also be conducted to determine the impact of
changing some or all of the parameters in the analysis. For example, if the risk
of a flu outbreak were 0.6 rather than 0.7 (and all other parameters stayed the
same), the optimal decision would be to not offer either vaccination program
1, in the original HMO decision, or vaccination program 2, initiated after the
flu outbreak later in the decision tree (exhibit 6.21).

HMO
vaccination

decision

Program

Program

No program No program

Flu outbreak

No flu outbreak

Flu outbreak

No flu outbreak A

B

C

D

Choose this path
because expected

costs of $10.4 million
are less than $12.2

million.

–7

Vaccination program #1
–7

Vaccination program #2
–10.4

Flu
–7

Flu
–7.28

Choose this path
because expected
costs of $7 million
are less than $7.28

million.

0

70.0%

30.0%

70.0%

30.0%

0 0

–7

–6

60.0%

–4

40.0%

60.0%

40.0%

–12

Costs
–10.4

Costs
–12.2

–8

0

0

0

EXHIBIT 6.19
HMO

Vaccination
Program

Decision Tree 3

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 161

For this example, dollars were used to represent costs (or benefits), but
any type of score can be used. In the medical field, decision trees are often used
to decide among a variety of treatment options and cost models for medical
applications (Freitas 2011; Ribas et al. 2011).

Decision trees can be powerful aids to evaluating and choosing the optimal
course of action. However, care must be taken when using them. Possible out-
comes and the probabilities and benefits associated with them are only estimates,
and these estimates may differ greatly from reality. Also, when using expected
value (or expected utility) to choose the optimum path, the underlying assump-
tion is that the decision will be made over and over. On average, the expected
payout is received, but in each individual situation, different amounts are received.

Initial Vaccination Program No Initial Vaccination Program

Number X P X P

1 –7 1 –12 0.42

2 –8 0.28

3 0 0.30

Note: X = cost in millions of dollars; P = probability.

EXHIBIT 6.20
Risk Analysis
for HMO
Vaccination
Program
Decision

HMO
vaccination

decision

Program

Program

No program No program

Flu outbreak

No flu outbreak

Flu outbreak

No flu outbreak A

B

C

D

–7

Vaccination
program #1

–7 Vaccination
program #2

–10.4

Flu
–7

Flu
–6.24

0

60.0%

40.0%

60.0%

40.0%

0 0

–7

–6

60.0%

–4

40.0%

60.0%

40.0%

–12

Costs
–10.4

Costs
–12.2

–8

0

0

0

EXHIBIT 6.21
Decision
Analysis
Sensitivity to
Change in Risk
of Flu Outbreak

Healthcare Operat ions Management162

Implementation: Force Field Analysis

Derived from the work of Kurt Lewin (1951), force field analysis is a technique
for evaluating all of the various forces for and against a proposed change. It
can be used to decide if a proposed change can be successfully implemented.
Alternatively, if a decision to change has already been made, force field analysis
can be used to develop strategies that enable the change to be implemented
successfully.

In any situation, driving forces help to achieve a change, and restraining
forces work against the change. Force field analysis identifies these forces and
assigns relative scores to each. Exhibit 6.22 lists typical forces that should be
considered. If the total score of the restraining forces is greater than the total
score of the driving forces, the change may be doomed to failure. Force field
analysis is typically used to determine how to strengthen or add driving forces or
weaken the restraining forces to enable successful implementation of a change.

Application of Force Field Analysis at Vincent Valley Hospital and
Health System
Patients at VVH have expressed a belief that they are insufficiently involved
in and informed about their care. After analyzing this problem, hospital staff
expect to solve (or lessen) it by moving the location of shift change handovers
from the nurses’ station to the patients’ bedsides. A force field analysis has
been conducted and is illustrated in exhibit 6.23.

Although the restraining forces are greater than the driving forces in this
example, the decision is made to implement the change in handover procedures.
To improve the project’s chances for success, a protocol is developed for the
actual procedure, making explicit the following guidelines:

• Develop and disseminate the protocol (new driving force +2).
• Exchange confidential information at the nurses’ station, not at the

bedside handover (decrease fear of disclosure by 2).
• Follow solution-based directives developed and incorporated into the

protocol to address delayed handovers (decrease problems associated
with late arrivals by 2).

Force field
analysis
A graphical
technique that
demonstrates all
the forces for and
against making a
key change.

Available resources
Costs
Vested interests
Regulations
Organizational structures
Present or past practices

Institutional policies or
norms

Personal or group attitudes
and needs

Social or organizational
norms and values

EXHIBIT 6.22
Common Forces

to Consider
in Force Field

Analysis

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 163

These changes thus increase the driving forces by 2, to 21, and decrease
the restraining forces by 4, to 17. The change has been successfully imple-
mented; more important, patients now feel involved in their care and the
number of complaints is reduced.

Conclusion

The tools and techniques outlined in this chapter are intended to help orga-
nizations along the path of continuous improvement. The choice of tool and
when to use that tool depends on the problem to be solved; in many situations,
several tools from this and other chapters should be used to ensure that the
best possible solution is found.

Discussion Questions

1. Answer the following questions quickly for a fun illustration of some of
the ten decision traps (Russo and Schoemaker 1989):

secroF gniniartseRsecroF gnivirD

Plan:
Change to

bedside shift
handover

Critical incidents
on the increase

Staff knowledgeable in
change management

Increase in discharge
against medical advice

Complaints from patients
and doctors increasing

Care given is predominantly
biomedical in orientation

Ritualism and
tradition

Fear that this may
lead to more work

Fear of increased
accountability

Problems associated
with late arrivals

Possible disclosure of
confidential information

4

5

3

3

4

Total: 19

4

4

3

5

5

Total: 21

EXHIBIT 6.23
Force Field
Analysis

Healthcare Operat ions Management164

• Can a person living in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, be buried west of the
Mississippi River?

• If you had only one match and entered a room with a lamp, an oil
heater, and some kindling wood, which would you light first?

• How many animals of each species did Moses take along on the ark?
• If a doctor gave you three pills and said to take one every half hour,

how long would they last?
• If you have two US coins totaling 55 cents and one of the coins is

not a nickel, what are the two coins?
What decision traps did you fall into when answering these questions?

2. Discuss a problem your organization solved or a suboptimal decision
the organization made because the frame was incorrect.

Exercises

1. For the HMO vaccination program example provided in the chapter,
reanalyze the situation assuming that the probability of a flu outbreak is
65 percent and the cost of the vaccination program is $8 million. What
is your decision under these new conditions?

2. In the DRG case-mix problem, VVH determined that it could convert
15 of its routine beds to ICU beds for a cost of $2,000. What should
VVH do, and why?

3. The high cost of medical care and insurance is a growing societal
problem. Develop a mind map of this issue. (Advanced: Use Inspiration
software.)

4. Individually or in teams, develop a map of a healthcare process or
system with which you are familiar. Make sure that your process map
has a start and an endpoint, all inputs and outputs are defined, and
all key process steps are included. Explain your map to the rest of
the class—this step may help you determine if anything is missing.
(Advanced: Use Microsoft Visio.)

5. Choose a service offered by a healthcare organization, and create a
service blueprint of it. You may have to imagine some of the systems
and services that take place backstage if you are unfamiliar with them.

6. Think of a problem in your healthcare organization. Perform an RCA
of the identified problem using the five whys technique and a fishbone
diagram.

7. Pick one solution to the problem identified in exercise 6, and conduct a
force field analysis of it.

Chapter 6: Tools for Problem Solving and Decis ion Making 165

References

Buzan, T. 1991. Use Both Sides of Your Brain. New York: Plume.
Buzan, T., and B. Buzan. 1994. The Mind Map Book: How to Use Radiant Thinking to

Maximize Your Brain’s Untapped Potential. New York: Dutton.
De Mast, J., B. Kemper, R. J. M. M. Does, M. Mandjes, and Y. van der Bijl. 2011. “Process

Improvement in Healthcare: Overall Resource Efficiency.” Quality and Reliability
Engineering International. Published April 1. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/
doi/10.1002/qre.1198/abstract.

Freitas, A. 2011. “Building Cost-Sensitive Decision Trees for Medical Applications.” AI
Communications 24 (3): 285–87.

Goldratt, E. M., and J. Cox. 1986. The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement. New York:
North River Press.

Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI). 2016. “Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Tool.”
Accessed August 24. http://app.ihi.org/Workspace/tools/fmea/.

———. 2005. “Workspace Tools.” Cambridge, MA: IHI.
Ishikawa, K. 1985. What Is Total Quality Control? Translated by D. J. Lu. Englewood Cliffs,

NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Joint Commission Resources (JCR) and Joint Commission International (JCI). 2010. Failure

Mode and Effects Analysis in Health Care: Proactive Risk Reduction, 3rd edition.
Oakbrook Terrace, IL: JCR.

Lewin, K. 1951. Field Theory in Social Science: Selected Theoretical Papers, edited by D.
Cartwright. New York: Harper.

National Center for Patient Safety, US Department of Veterans Affairs. 2015. “Healthcare
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA).” Updated June 3. www.patientsafety.
va.gov/professionals/onthejob/hfmea.asp.

Ribas, V. J., J. C. Lopez, J. C. Ruiz-Rodriguez, A. Ruiz-Sanmartin, J. Rello, and A. Vellido.
2011. “On the Use of Decision Trees for ICU Outcome Prediction in Sepsis Patients
Treated with Statins.” Proceedings of the IEEE Symposium on Computational Intel-
ligence and Data Mining, CIDM 2011. IEEE Symposium Series on Computational
Intelligence 2011, April 11–15, Paris. Accessed August 24, 2016. http://ieeexplore.
ieee.org/xpl/freeabs_all.jsp?arnumber=5949439&abstractAccess=no&userType=inst.

Russo, J. E., and P. J. H. Schoemaker. 1989. Decision Traps: The Ten Barriers to Brilliant
Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them. New York: Doubleday.

Shostack, G. L. 1984. “Designing Services That Deliver.” Harvard Business Review 62
(1): 133–39.

Stratton, R., and A. Knight. 2010. “Managing Patient Flow Using Time Buffers.” Journal
of Manufacturing Technology Management 21 (4): 484–98.

Wysocki, B., Jr. 2004. “To Fix Health Care, Hospitals Take Tips from Factory Floor.” Wall
Street Journal, April 9, A1–A5.

CHAPTER

167

STATISTICAL THINKING AND STATISTICAL
PROBLEM SOLVING

Operations Management
in Action

In February 2016, the World Health
Organization (WHO) and the Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention
(CDC) announced that the Zika virus
was growing rapidly throughout the
world (Botelho 2016). According to the
CDC (2016a), the Zika virus is contracted
and spread to humans by a particular
species of mosquito. A Zika infection is
typically not fatal, but pregnant women
can transmit the virus to their unborn
children, potentially resulting in birth
defects (CDC 2016b). WHO estimated
that Zika infections would reach 3 mil-
lion to 4 million cases in the Americas
over a 12-month period from 2016 to
2017 (Botelho 2016).

This estimate by WHO was devel-
oped in the wake of intense criticism
of the agency over its mishandling of
the Ebola virus in Africa, starting with
its inaccurate initial estimates of the
number of cases expected (Botelho
2016). Ebola killed thousands of peo-
ple across a portion of the continent
despite humanitarian efforts to help
control the outbreak. An internal WHO
document reveals that its officials did
not pay attention to evidence related
to the rise of the virus, likely perpetuat-
ing the deadly situation (Sanchez 2014).

7
OVE RVIEW: STATISTICAL TH I NKI NG
I N H EALTHC AR E

What Is Statistical Thinking?
As defined by Joseph Juran, statistical thinking is the collection, orga-

nization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data (Juran and

De Feo 2010). In most business systems in the healthcare industry,

statistical thinking is lacking. Knowledge-based management and

improvement require that decisions be based on facts rather than

on feelings or intuition. Collecting the right data and analyzing them

correctly enable fact-based decision making.

Variance is present in all systems. The ability of leadership to

understand and control variance distinguishes high-performing sys-

tems from poorly run systems. Hospitals often ignore variance, and the

erratic behavior that underlies it continues until, as exemplified in this

text, major issues emerge that require system redesign (DeLia 2007).

The importance of understanding statistical concepts in devel-

oping high-performing healthcare systems cannot be overstated. Deliv-

ering high-quality healthcare in a sustained manner depends on under-

standing and controlling variance. The irony of this relationship is that

many clinical quality and safety rules and regulations are designed and

driven by the understanding of variance, while the supporting business

systems are often designed to meet regulatory agency requirements and

not to manage the variance in the system. The good news is that this situ-

ation provides the opportunity to make massive changes to both system

and financial performance simply by understanding data and metrics.

Metrics and Key Process Indicators
The terms metrics and key process indicators (KPIs) have become

increasingly prevalent in discourse about healthcare operations man-

agement in recent years. Hospitals and healthcare organizations are

constantly searching to find effective metrics that indicate the health

of their overall system. For healthcare systems, the term metrics can

Healthcare Operat ions Management168

The original estimates
for the Ebola virus in
Africa were demon-
strated to be grossly
underestimated (Melt-
zer et al. 2014). Initial
estimates of virus
outbreaks help coun-
tries and governments
allocate resources to
manage the situa-
tion. Once officials
determined that
the Ebola estimates
were low, the many
groups involved in the
response to the crisis
had to react quickly to
gain control of it.

While we can-
not say for certain,
we may reasonably
assume that the mod-
els created by WHO
resulted in a wide
range of estimates
as to the incidence
of Zika. To avoid the
same level of criticism
it encountered fol-
lowing its estimates
of Ebola, WHO likely
published projec-
tions that were much
higher than predicted
by most estimation
models. If so, this sce-
nario is a perfect dem-
onstration of how bias
and situation affect
the interpretation of
statistical models.

OVE RVI EW (Continued)

be difficult to grasp because it includes clinical metrics of safety

and quality as well as business system metrics. Each area has its

own challenges that hinder the collection of data.

To design effective and efficient systems or improve existing sys-

tems, knowledge of the system itself, including both inputs to the system

and the desired output, is needed. The goal of data collection is to obtain

valid information to enhance understanding toward improving the system

being studied. Decisions made or solutions implemented on the basis of

invalid data are doomed to failure. Ensuring that the data obtained are

valid is an important part of any study, and often the most problematic.

What constitutes valid data in a healthcare system can vary depending

on which system area—clinical or business—is being analyzed.

Clinical systems are appropriately designed around

patient safety and quality outcomes. Procedures and processes

are designed and tested under rigorous statistical guidelines.

The outcome of these statistical procedures is that the delivery of

care improves over time and patient safety and quality increase.

Business systems, on the other hand, usually develop over time to

meet the needs of the market and the technological needs of the

institution, with the net effect being that the business system must

flex to meet the ever-changing demands of the healthcare industry.

Thus, although these two areas are integral to any healthcare

system, their processes for data gathering may conflict, making

the collection of appropriate data for analysis challenging.

Efforts to change clinical processes require perfect data.

Clinical studies follow rigorous data collection procedures and

include control groups and test groups, and results are compared

under the most demanding statistical procedures. However, to

change business systems, the data only need to be “good enough.”

The data should point to the major problems and provide a basis

for how to change the system. The goal in business systems is

continuous improvement, not perfection. The needs of both types

of healthcare professionals—clinicians and business developers—

working in the same industry lead to arguments about data and

data integrity, which often result in little or no analysis.

Statistical thinking requires that our decisions be driven

by data and not by individual preferences. However, ultimately,

the goal is continuous improvement, and the opposite of progress

is doing nothing at all. The focus of this chapter is on providing a

solid understanding of data collection, measurement, and analysis.

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 169

Foundations of Data Analysis

To become an effective practitioner of continuous improvement and an effective
business analyst, one must become adept at problem solving and data analy-
sis, including knowledge of the fundamental issues related to data collection,
basic probability, and statistical analysis. For those readers with little or no
background in statistics or probability, this chapter provides an introduction
to the basic concepts used in fundamental problem solving, many of which are
integral to the continuous improvement philosophy of quality. For readers who
wish to gain a greater understanding of statistics and probability, the book’s
companion website has in-depth coverage of many
statistical concepts and techniques. For purposes of
this chapter, we discuss the following topics:

• Graphic tools for data presentation and analysis
• Mathematical forms of data description
• Probability, including basic and conditional probability
• Confidence intervals and hypothesis testing
• Linear regression

After reading this chapter, readers should understand the fundamental
tools of problem solving and quality.

Where to Start?
The critical error often made during problem solving is failing to understand
what data are needed to solve the problem or how the data will be acquired.

A helpful first step is to establish why the data are needed and what
they will be used for. Another useful consideration is whether the patterns of
the past will be repeated in the future. If you have reason to believe that the
future will look different from the past, data from the past will not help you
answer the question and other, nonquantitative methods of problem solving
should be used. This is the logic phase of the data collection process, where
the focus is on ensuring that the right question is being asked and that the
question can actually be answered.

Graphic Tools

A core technique of problem solving is to consider the data and problem visu-
ally prior to studying the data analytically. This section discusses graphic data
illustration techniques, including mapping, check sheets, histograms, Pareto
charts, dot plots, and scatter plots.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Healthcare Operat ions Management170

Mapping
Mind mapping is a versatile graphic approach to data illustration because it can
also be employed before the actual problem solving begins by enabling the
collection of valid data. A mind map helps frame the problem or question in
an attempt to avoid the commission of logic errors throughout the problem-
solving process (exhibit 7.1; see also chapter 6).

Check Sheets
An essential tool used in problem solving is the check sheet. Check sheets
are custom-designed forms that allow users to collect data on problems and
defects. The form has checkbox items that describe typical problems in the
system. When an employee uses a check sheet, he selects the appropriate box
every time an error occurs. This type of tool is designed to collect data in real
time as it is being created. The gathering of check sheet data is necessary prior
to conducting analysis.

Although effective check sheets may be simple to develop and compre-
hend, they are difficult tools to execute well. The most effective check sheets
have the following characteristics:

• They are simple to use.
• The data points reflect a consistent level of analysis.
• They include just a few boxes for the user to check.
• Data are collected as they occur.

CAUSES OF
EMERGENCY ROOM

DELAYS

Technology

Admission does not
classify patients

Room Scheduling

Rooms are assigned
in random fashion

Need to manually
enter in data

20 different
service lines

No standardization
to get a consult

Unclear admissions
process

Not trained on
admissions process

Personnel

Processes

Ancillary Services

EXHIBIT 7.1
Causes of

Emergency
Room Delays

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 171

When executed correctly, a check sheet allows a data analyst to access
current data that can be used to demonstrate the state of a problem. However,
many issues are encountered with the use of check sheets, mostly related to
the process of collecting the data. Many people complete check sheets incor-
rectly because the sheets are not clear; some staff fail to fill them out as the
data are created.

Data Visualization Techniques
Once valid data are collected, they need to be analyzed to answer the original
question or make a decision. The data must be examined not only to deter-
mine their general characteristics but also to look for interesting or unusual
patterns. Subsequent sections of this chapter cover numeric tools that can be
employed for this purpose.

The human mind is powerful and has the ability to discern patterns in
data, which can then be validated through numeric methods. Visual representa-
tions of the data aid in both answering questions and convincing others of the
accuracy of those answers. This section taps insights on graphic analysis tools
from Tufte (1997, 1990, 1983), which provide guidance on visually presenting
data. The first step in data analysis is always to graph the data.

Histograms and Pareto Diagrams
Histograms and Pareto diagrams are two of the seven basic quality tools intro-
duced in chapter 6 and discussed in detail in chapter 8. A histogram (exhibit
7.2) is used to summarize discrete or continuous data. These graphs can be
useful for investigating or illustrating important characteristics of the data, such
as their overall shape, symmetry, location, and spread and the outliers, clusters,
and gaps that emerge. Worth noting, however, is that for some distributions,
a particular choice of bin width (interval in which frequency of data points is

Histogram
A graph
summarizing
discrete or
continuous data.
Histograms
visually display
how much
variation exists in
the data.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Fr
eq

ue
nc

y

LOS (days)

1–2 3–4 5–6 7–8 9–10 11–12 13–14 15–16 17–18

EXHIBIT 7.2
Histogram of
Hospital Length
of Stay (LOS)

Healthcare Operat ions Management172

measured) can distort the features of a data set. For
an example of this problem, see the Old Faithful His-
togram applet linked from the companion website.

To construct a histogram, the data are divided or grouped into classes.
For each group, a rectangle is created with its base equal to the range of values
in the group and its area proportional to the number of observations falling
into the group. If the ranges are the same length, the height of the histogram
is also proportional to the number of observations falling into that group.

In this way, histograms allow an analyst to see the shape of the distri-
bution of the data. She can quickly see if data points follow patterns of tight
variation or wide variation or simply if some data points might be considered
outliers (extremes; discussed later in the chapter) to the overall data set.

The histogram in exhibit 7.2, which depicts an example of hospital
length of stay (LOS), demonstrates a distribution that is skewed to the right,
revealing that the majority of inpatients stay between one and two days.

Pareto diagrams are a type of frequency diagram, which indicates the
number of times a particular item occurs in a situation. The Pareto principle,
or the 80/20 rule, dictates that 80 percent of costs, defects, or other types of
issues are attributable to 20 percent of the items being measured. In exhibit
7.3, a hospital collected data related to a high percentage of late starts for
surgeries. In the first diagram, 80 percent of all issues are related to just two
issues: missing equipment at the start of surgery and late-arriving patients.
Using another Pareto diagram to dissect the reasons for missing equipment

Pareto diagram
A rank-ordered
frequency chart
that indicates
the number of
times a particular
item occurs in a
situation.

40

80

70

60

50

30

20

10

0

40.0%

90.0%

80.0%

100.0%

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

60.2%
50

17
12

3
1

80.7%

95.2%

98.8%

M
is

si
ng

e
qu

ip
m

en
t

Pe
op

le
ar

ri
ve

d
la

te

Pr
ob

le
m

w
it

h
se

tu
p

O
rd

er
s

no
t c

or
re

ct

Tr
an

sp
or

t

Reason for Delays

40

50

30

20

10

0

40.0%

90.0%

80.0%

100.0%

70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

64.0%

84.0%

92.0% 98.0%

Po
or

le
ad

ti
m

e

N
ot

c
le

an

Ex
pi

re
d

O
th

er

B
ro

ke
n

Reason for Missing Equipment

32

10

4
3

1

EXHIBIT 7.3
Causes for

Delays in
Surgery

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 173

demonstrated that 64 percent of those cases had insufficient lead time to clean,
prepare, and load the surgery cart to arrive in time for the surgery. This analysis
allowed a problem-solving team to focus its efforts on improving those few
activities that made an immediate impact on the situation.

Dot Plots
A dot plot (exhibit 7.4) is similar to a histogram; rather than showing points
on a graph connected by a line, a dot plot represents frequency of occurrence
by a dot. Dot plots are useful for displaying small data sets with positive values
because they are quick and easy to construct by hand.

Scatter Plots
Scatter plots are another of the seven basic quality tools. A scatter plot graphi-
cally displays the relationship between a pair of variables and can offer an initial
indication of whether two variables are related, how strongly they are related,
and the direction of the relationship. For example, is a relationship present
between hospital LOS and a patient’s weight? Does LOS increase (decrease)
as weight increases? How strong is the relationship between LOS and weight?
A scatter plot can help to answer these questions. Regression—the statistical
tool related to scatter plots that gives more detailed, numeric answers to these
questions—is discussed later in this chapter.

To construct a scatter plot related to the aforementioned questions, data
on LOS and patient weight from the population of interest are collected. Typi-
cally, the cause, or independent variable, is on the horizontal (x) axis and the
effect, or dependent variable, is on the vertical (y) axis. Each pair of variables
is plotted on this graph.

Scatter plots are useful tools for determining what variables in the system
need to be controlled to obtain desired outputs. Much like a Pareto diagram, a
scatter plot helps narrow the number of variables an analyst needs to consider
in solving the problem. A typical scatter plot is shown in exhibit 7.5.

Dot plot
A chart in which
frequency is
represented by
a dot. Useful for
displaying small
data sets with
positive values.

Scatter plot
A graph displaying
two variables that
indicates whether
they are related,
how strongly they
are related, and
the direction of the
relationship.

Days

181512963

EXHIBIT 7.4
Dot Plot of
Hospital Length
of Stay

Healthcare Operat ions Management174

Exhibit 7.5 shows that the consumption of one to two glasses of wine
per day has a positive effect on reducing vascular disease. This relationship is
negative because increased wine consumption leads to a reduction in disease.

Mathematical Descriptions

When describing or summarizing data, the three characteristics of interest
for any analyst are central tendency, spread or variation, and the probability
distribution. In this section, the following simple data set is used to illustrate
some of these measures: 3, 6, 8, 3, 5.

Measures of Central Tendency
The three common measures of central tendency are mean, median, and mode.

Mean
The mean is the arithmetic average of the population:

Population mean= µ=
Σx
N

,

140

160

120

80

100

60

40

20

0

543210 6

Wine Consumption (dl/person/day)

SM
R

fo
r C

er
eb

ro
va

sc
ul

ar
D

is
ea

se

Source: Reprinted from Truelsen and Grønbæk (1999).

Note: SMR = standardized mortality ratio.

EXHIBIT 7.5
Scatter Plot

Between Wine
Consumption
and Vascular

Disease

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 175

where x = individual values and N = number of values in the population.

The population mean can be estimated from a sample:

Σ
= =x

x
n

Sample mean ,

where n = number of values in the sample. For our simple data set,

=
+ + + +

=x
3 6 8 3 5

5
5.

Referring to the histogram in exhibit 7.6, if the data shape looks like
a bell curve, the mean is the point in the middle, or the average of all data.

Median
The median is the middle value of the sample or population. If the data are
arranged into an array (an ordered data set),

3,3,5,6,8

5 is the middle value or median.

Mode
The mode is the most frequently occurring value. In the previous example, the
value 3 occurs more often (two times) than any other value, so 3 is the mode.

20

25

15

10

5

0

50%40%30%20%10%0% 60%

Practice-Level SQUID Value

Fr
eq

ue
nc

y
(n

um
be

r o
f p

ra
ct

ic
es

)

EXHIBIT 7.6
Histogram
of Summary
Quality Index
(SQUID)

Source: Reprinted from Truelsen and Grønbæk (1999).

Healthcare Operat ions Management176

Measures of Variability
Several measures are commonly used to summarize the variability of the data,
including range, mean absolute deviation, variance, standard deviation, coef-
ficient of variation, and outliers.

Range
A simple way to capture the variation or spread in the data is to determine the
range—the difference between the high and low values. All of the information
in the data is not being used with this measure, but it is simple to calculate, as
shown here with our sample data set:

Range = xhigh − xlow = 8 – 3 = 5.

Mean Absolute Deviation
Another possible measure of the variability or spread in the data is the aver-
age difference from the mean. However, for any data set this average equals
zero, because the values above the mean always balance the values below the
mean. One way to eliminate this problem is to determine the absolute value
of the differences from the mean. This measure is called the mean absolute
deviation (MAD) and is commonly used in forecasting to measure variability.
For the sample data set,

x x
n

MAD
| | 2 1 3 2 0

5
8
5

1.6,
Σ

=

=
+ + + +

= =

where n is the number of values in the sample.
Because absolute values are difficult to work with mathematically, we

do not cover them in depth here.

Variance
The average square difference from the mean—called the variance—provides
another measure of the variability in data. Variance is a good measure of devia-
tion from the mean in a population. However, for a sample, it can be proven
that variance is a biased estimator and needs to be adjusted; rather than dividing
the numerator by n, it must be divided by n – 1:

Population variance= 2 =
(x μ)2

N
=

4+1+9+ 4+0
5

=
18
5
= 3.6

Sample variance= s 2 =
(x x)2

n 1
=

4+1+9+ 4+0
5 1

=
18
4
= 4.5

Variance
A statistical term
that indicates
how much a
measurement
varies around the
mean.

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 177

Standard Deviation
Calculating the square root of the variance results in the units of this measure
being the same as the units of the mean, median, and mode. This measure,
the standard deviation, is the most commonly used measure of variability.

Population standard deviation= 2

=
(x μ)2

N

=
4+ 4+0+1+9

5
=

18
5
= 3.6 =1.9

Σ
=

=

=
+ + + +


= = =

s

x x
n

Sample standard deviation

( )

4 4 0 1 9
5 1

18
4

4.5 2.1

2

2

Coefficient of Variation
The coefficient of variation (CV) indicates the amount of variation relative
to the mean. The CV is computed by dividing the mean by the standard devia-
tion. The larger the mean relative to the standard deviation, the less relative
variation exists in the data.

CV =
σ
µ
= 5

or

= =
s
x

1.9
5

0.4.

Outliers
Outliers are observations that are far from the mean or median in the data set.
An outlier is an important discovery because it represents an opportunity for
analysts to seek improvements in that area.

If the histogram data are reasonably bell shaped, we use Shewhart’s
rule to determine if outliers are present in the data. Shewhart’s rule indicates
that outliers are present if the data points are greater than the mean at a rate
of ±3 × standard deviation.

Standard
deviation
A measurement of
variation around
the mean.

Coefficient of
variation (CV)
A measure of
variation in the
data relative to the
measure of central
tendency in the
data.

Shewhart’s rule
An outlier exists
in bell-shaped
data if a data point
is greater than
three standard
deviations from
the mean.

Healthcare Operat ions Management178

If the histogram data are skewed (not bell shaped), we use Tukey’s rule
to determine if outliers are present in the data:

Q1 − 1.5 × IQR

or

Q3 + 1.5 × IQR,

where Q1 and Q3 represent the first and third quartiles of the data set and
IQR is the interquartile range. IQR is computed by subtracting Q1 from Q3.

Probability

A common belief in healthcare systems is that events related to illness are not
predictable. These types of events are more predictable than most people real-
ize, and the laws of probability help explain the likelihood of events occurring.
Many issues arise in healthcare systems because the impact of probability on
the system is not understood. For example, not understanding the probability
of increased admittance to the hospital could create a situation in which beds
are not available to patients who need them.

Two types of models explain what is seen in the world: deterministic and
probabilistic. In a deterministic model, the given inputs determine the output
with certainty. For example, given a person’s date of birth and the current date,
his age can be determined. The inputs determine the output:

Date of Birth
Current Date Age Model Person’s Age

Age Life Span
Model

Person’s
Remaining Life
Span

In a probabilistic model, the given inputs provide only an estimate of the out-
put. For example, given a person’s age, her remaining life span can only be estimated:

Date of Birth
Current Date Age Model Person’s Age

Age Life Span
Model

Person’s
Remaining Life
Span

Determination of Probabilities
Probabilities can be determined (1) through observation or experimentation,
(2) by applying theory or reason, or (3) subjectively through opinion making.

Observed Probability
Observed probability is a summary of the observations or experiments involved
in determining probability and is referred to as empirical probability or relative

Tukey’s rule
An outlier exists
in a skewed data
set if a data point
is greater than Q1
− one step or Q3
+ one step, where
one step = 1.5 ×
IQR.

Observed
probability
The number of
times an event
occurred divided
by the total
number of trials.

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 179

frequency. Observed probability is the relative frequency of an event—the
number of times the event occurred divided by the total number of trials.

= =P
r
n

(A)
Number of times A occured

Total number of observations, trials, or experiments
,

where P is probability, A is the event, r is rate, and n is number of trials.
Drug or protocol effectiveness is often determined in this manner:

= =P
r
n

(Drug is effective)
Number of times patients cured

Total number of patients given the drug
.

For business analysts, observed probability is the most commonly applied
probability type because it gives an accurate representation of how the system
or processes are functioning.

Theoretical Probability
The second method of determining probability, the theoretical relative fre-
quency of an event, is based on logic—it is the theoretical number of times an
event will occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes:

= =P
r
n

(A)
Number of times A could occur

Total number of possible outcomes
.

Casino revenues are based on this theoretical determination of probabil-
ity. If a card is randomly selected from a common deck of 52, the probability
that it will be a spade is determined as follows:

= = =P(Card is a spade)
Number of spades in the deck

Total number of cards in the deck
13
52

0.25.

Theoretical probability is often used by health insurance companies to
predict the number of occurrences of disease and illness to set premium rates.

Properties of Probabilities
Bounds on Probability
Probabilities are bounded, such that the least number of times an event could
occur is zero; therefore, probabilities must always be greater than or equal to
zero. An event that cannot occur has a probability of zero. The largest num-
ber of times, t, an event could occur is equal to the total possible number of
outcomes—t cannot be any larger; therefore, probabilities must always be less
than or equal to 1:

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.

Theoretical
probability
The number of
times an event will
occur divided by
the total number
of possible
outcomes.

Healthcare Operat ions Management180

The sum of the probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1. From this
property, it follows that

P(A) + P(A′) = 1

and

1 – P(A) = P(A),

where A′ is “not A,” meaning A does not occur. This property can be useful
when determining probabilities, as determining the probability of not A is
often easier than finding the probability of A.

Multiplicative Property
Two events are independent if the outcome of one event does not affect the
outcome of the other event. For two independent events, the probability of
both A and B occurring, or the intersection (∩) of A and B, is the probability
of A occurring multiplied by the probability of B occurring:

P(A and B occurring) = P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B).

For example, when combining a coin toss with a die toss, we can deter-
mine the probability of obtaining both heads and a three:

P (H ∩ 3) = P (H) × P (3) =
1

2
×

1

6
=

1

12
.

A tree diagram (exhibit 7.7) or a Venn diagram (exhibit 7.8) can be used
to illustrate this property. (Note that decision trees, discussed in chapter 6, are
different from the tree diagrams presented here. Decision trees follow a time pro-
gression and analyses of the choices that can be made at particular points in time.)

The multiplicative property provides a way to test whether events are
independent. If they are not independent,

P(A ∩ B) ≠ P(A) × P(B).

Additive Property
For two events, the probability of A or B occurring—the union (∪) of A with
B—is the probability of A occurring plus the probability of B occurring minus
the probability of both A and B occurring:

P(A or B occurring) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) + P(A ∩ B).

Building on the earlier example, when combining a coin toss with a die
toss, we can determine the probability of obtaining heads or a three, but not both:

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 181

P H P H P P H( 3) ( ) (3) ( 3)
1
2

1
6

1
12

6
12

2
12

1
12

7
12

.

∪ = + − ∩

= + − = + − =

A tree diagram (exhibit 7.9) or Venn diagram can be used to illustrate the
additive property.

Coin Toss Die Toss Probability

1 1/12

2 1/12

H
3 1/12

4 1/12

5 1/12

6 1/12
Start

1 1/12

2 1/12

T

3 1/12

4 1/12

5 1/12

6 1/12

P(H) = 1/2 P(3) = 1/6

P(H 3) = 1/12

EXHIBIT 7.7
Tree Diagram—
Multiplicative
Property

Toss heads Toss 3

1 515

EXHIBIT 7.8
Venn Diagram—
Multiplicative
Property

Healthcare Operat ions Management182

Conditional Probability
Conditional probability estimates how frequently events occur after a previ-
ous event has taken place. For example, suppose a patient usually waits in the
emergency department (ED) for fewer than 30 minutes before being moved
into an examination room. However, on Friday nights, when the department
is busy, the wait is longer; the probability of waiting 30 minutes or less is lower.
This is the conditional probability of waiting less than 30 minutes given that
the time frame of interest is a Friday night.

The conditional probability that A will occur given that B has occurred
is as follows:

P
P

P
(A | B)

(A B)
(B)

.=

Now suppose a study were conducted of 100 ED patients in which 50
patients were observed on a Friday night and 50 patients were observed at other

Coin Toss Die Toss Probability

1 1/12

2 1/12

H
3 1/12

4 1/12

5 1/12

6 1/12
Start

1 1/12

2 1/12

T

3 1/12

4 1/12

5 1/12

6 1/12

7/12P(H) = 1/2 P(3) = 1/6

P(H 3) = 1/12

P(H 3) = 7/12

EXHIBIT 7.9
Tree Diagram—

Additive
Property

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 183

times. On Friday night, 20 people waited less than 30 minutes, but 30 people
waited longer than 30 minutes. At other times, 40 people waited less than 30
minutes, and only 10 people waited longer than 30 minutes. A contingency
table (exhibit 7.10) summarizes this information.

Contingency tables are used to examine the relationships between
qualitative or categorical variables by showing the frequency of one variable as a
function of another variable. The column of the table in which an observation
falls (e.g., either ≤30 minutes or >30 minutes) is contingent on (depends on)
the row where the subject is placed (e.g., time of day).

For all patients in the earlier ED wait time example, the probability of
waiting longer than 30 minutes is

P(Wait > 30 minutes) =
Number of patients who wait > 30

Total number of patients

=
40

100

= 0.40.

Furthermore, the (conditional) probability of waiting more than 30 minutes
given that the time frame is Friday night is

=

=

=

P
P

P
(A | Friday night)

(Wait > 30 minutes and Friday night)
(Friday night)

Number of patients who wait > 30 minutes on a Friday night
Number of patients on a Friday night

30
50
0.60.

A tree diagram for this example is shown in exhibit 7.11.
Note that P(A ∩ B) = P(A | B) × P(B) = P(B | A) × P(A), and if one

event has no effect on the other event—that is, the events are independent—then
P(A | B) = P(A) and P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B). In the coin and die toss example,
the coin toss and die toss are independent events, so the probability of tossing
a six is the same no matter the outcome of the coin toss. For the ED wait time
example, if night and wait time are independent events, then the probability

Contingency table
A tool used to
examine the
relationships
between
qualitative or
categorical
variables.

≤30-Minute Wait >30-Minute Wait

Friday night 20 30 50

Other times 40 10 50

Total 60 40 100

EXHIBIT 7.10
Contingency
Table for
Emergency
Department
Wait Times

Healthcare Operat ions Management184

of waiting less than 30 minutes on a Friday night is 0.5 × 0.6 = 0.30. But this
contingency is not present; wait time and night are not independent—rather,
they are related. From this simple study, one could not conclude that Friday
night causes wait time.

Bayes’ theorem allows the use of new information to update the con-
ditional probability of an event. It is expressed mathematically as follows:

| =

=
| ×

=
| ×

| × + | ′ × ′
P

P
P

P P
P

P P
P P P P

(A B)
(A B)

(B)
(B A) (A)

(B)
(B A) (A)

(B A) (A) (B A ) (A )
.

Bayes’ theorem is often used to evaluate the probability of a false-positive
test result. If a test for a particular disease is performed on a patient, the pos-
sibility exists that the test will return a positive result even if the patient does
not have the disease. Bayes’ theorem allows the determination of the prob-
ability that a person who tests positive for a disease actually has the disease.
For example, if a tested patient has the disease, the test reports that finding
with 99 percent accuracy, and if the patient does not have the disease, the test
reports that finding with 95 percent accuracy. Now suppose that the incidence
of the disease is rare—only 0.1 percent of the population has the disease. The
following equation expresses the scenario mathematically:

P

P

No disease | Test positive

Test positiv

( ) =

ee | No disease (No disease)
Test positi

( ) × P
P vve | No disease No disease Test posi( ) × ( ) +P P ttive | Disease Disease

0.050 0.999
0.

( ) × ( )
×

P

0050 0.999 0.990 0.001× + ×
= 0 981..

A tree diagram (exhibit 7.12) helps to illustrate this problem.
As demonstrated by application of the above equation to exhibit 7.12,

the test results are positive 0.00099 + 0.04995 = 0.05094 of the time; 0.04995
of that time, the person does not have the disease. Therefore, the probability

Bayes’ theorem
A formula used
to revise the
calculation of
conditional
probability as
new information
is obtained in the
situation.

Night Wait Time Probability
Conditional
Probability

0.2 0.3/0.5 = 0.6
Friday

0.3
Start

0.4
Other

≤ 30 minutes

≤ 30 minutes

^

30 minutes

^

30 minutes 0.1

EXHIBIT 7.11
Tree Diagram—

Emergency
Department

Wait Time

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 185

that a person does not have the disease, although the test for the disease was
positive, is

0.04995

0.05094
= 0.981, or 98.1 percent.

Conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem are often used in healthcare
in clinical studies to test drug interactions. In addition, conditional probability
is useful in predicting outcomes on the basis of demographics.

Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing
Central Limit Theorem
The central limit theorem states that as the sample size from a population
becomes sufficiently large, the sampling distribution of the mean approaches
normality, no matter the distribution of the original variable. Additionally, the
mean of the sampling distribution is equal to the mean of the population and the
standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the mean approaches σ/ n ,
where σ is the standard deviation of the population and n is the sample size. If
a sample is taken from any distribution, the mean of the sample will follow a
normal distribution with mean = µ and standard deviation σ/ n , commonly
called the standard error of the mean (sx or SE). This theorem is extremely
valuable because data that follow the normal distribution have parameters
that are easier to understand than those of data with non-normal distribution.

The central limit theorem can be used to determine a confidence inter-
val (CI) for the true mean of the population. If the standard deviation of the
population is known, the CI for the mean is

x za/2 x μ x + za/2 x

x za/2 n
μ x + za/2 n

,

Central limit
theorem
A theory
demonstrating that
as the sample size
from a population
becomes
sufficiently large,
the sampling
distribution of the
means approaches
normality, no
matter the
distribution of the
original variable.

Confidence
interval (CI)
The probability
that a population
parameter falls
between two
values.

Patient Test Result Probability

0.00099

Has disease
0.001 0.00001

Start
0.94905

No disease
0.999 0.04995

Positive
0.990

Negative
0.010

Negative
0.950

Positive
0.050

EXHIBIT 7.12
Tree Diagram—
Bayes’ Theorem
Example

Healthcare Operat ions Management186

where za/2 is the z-value associated with an upper- or lower-tail probability
of α. In other words, to obtain a 95 percent CI, the upper- and lower-tail
probabilities must be 0.025 (2.5 percent in the upper tail and 2.5 percent in
the lower tail, leaving 95 percent in the middle) and the associated z-value is
1.95 (2 is commonly used). Note that increasing the sample size tightens the
confidence limits.

If the population standard deviation (σ) is unknown, the sample standard
deviation (s) is used to estimate the standard error of the mean:

x za/2 x μ x + za/2 x

x za/2
s
n
μ x + za/2

s
n

.

Small samples (generally, n < 30, where n is the sample size) do not fol-
low a z-distribution; they follow a t-distribution. The t-distribution has greater
probability in the tails of the distribution than a z-distribution has and varies
according to the degrees of freedom, n – 1. Therefore, for small samples, the
following equation is used:

x −ta/2×
s
n
≤µ≤ x + ta/2×

s
n

.

Returning to our ED wait time example, if the waiting time for a random
sample of 16 patients were measured and their mean wait time found to be 10
minutes with a standard deviation of 2 minutes, a 95 percent CI for the true
value of wait time would be

x t
s

n
x t

s

n
− × ≤ ≤ + ×

− × ≤ ≤ + ×

αα μ

µ

//

. .

22

10 2 13
2

16
10 2 13

22

16
10 1 06 10 1 06

8 94 11 06.

− ≤ ≤ +

≤ ≤

. .

. .

μ

μ

Because we computed a 95 percent CI, in 19 out of 20 times, if a similar
sample were taken, the CI obtained would include the true value of the mean
wait time. To an analyst, this result indicates that under similar situations, the
expectation is that the mean value falls between 8.94 and 11.06.

If a larger sample of 49 patients had been taken and their mean wait
time were found to be 10 minutes with a standard deviation of 1 minute, a 95
percent CI for the true value of the mean would be

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 187

x−za/2×
s
n
≤µ≤ x + za/2×

s
n

10−2×
1
49
≤µ≤10+2×

1
49

10−0.3≤µ≤10+0.3
9.7≤µ≤10.3.

Hypothesis Testing
In the previous section, we demonstrated that a range of likely values for the
population parameter of interest can be obtained by computing a CI. This
interval may be used to determine whether claims about the value are correct
by confirming or disproving that the CI captured the claimed value. In the
wait time example, if an observer claimed that the wait time for most patients
was eight minutes, the claim would be rejected on the basis of the information
obtained. However, if the claim were made that the mean wait time was ten
minutes, the study would support this claim. Hypothesis testing is a formal
way of testing such claims and is closely related to CIs.

Hypothesis testing includes three components: a belief, called the null
hypothesis; a competing belief, called the alternative hypothesis; and a decision
rule for evaluating the beliefs.

In the wait time example, these components are expressed as follows:

Ho (belief): µ = 8 minutes
Ha (alternative belief): µ ≠ 8 minutes
Decision rule: If t ≥ t*, reject the null hypothesis

Here, t = (x – µ)/σx, the number of standard errors away from the
mean, and t* is the test statistic based on the desired confidence level and the
degrees of freedom. If t is greater than t*, finding a sample mean that is dif-
ferent from the true value of the mean is unlikely; therefore, the belief about
the true value of the mean (Ho) would be rejected. In the wait time example,
t* for a 95 percent CI with 15 degrees of freedom (sample size of 16) is 2.13.
Therefore, t = (x – µ)/σx = (10 – 8)/0.5, and t ≥ t*. Under this condition,
Ha would be rejected.

More typically, hypothesis testing is used to determine whether an effect
exists. Suppose a pharmaceutical company wants to evaluate a new headache
remedy by administering it to a collection of subjects. If the new headache
remedy appears to relieve headaches, the company must be able to state with
confidence that the effect was in fact due to the new remedy, not just chance.
Most headaches eventually go away on their own, and some headaches (or

Hypothesis testing
The process of
testing a statistical
distribution
parameter against
that of another
distribution
parameter to
assess if statistical
differences exist in
the data.

Healthcare Operat ions Management188

some people’s headaches) are difficult to relieve, so the company can make
two kinds of mistakes: incorrectly concluding that the remedy works when in
fact it does not, and failing to notice that an effective remedy works. The null
hypothesis (Ho) is that the remedy does not relieve headaches; the alternative
hypothesis (Ha) is that it does.

Type I and Type II Errors
A type I, or α, error occurs if the company concludes that the remedy works
when in fact it does not. A type II, or β, error occurs if the remedy is effective
but the company concludes that it is not.

Hypothesis testing is similar to the process of determining guilt in the
US criminal court system. In a trial, the assumption is that the defendant is
innocent (the null hypothesis) until proven guilty (the alternative hypothesis);
evidence is presented (data), and the jury decides whether the defendant is
guilty or not guilty on the basis of proof (decision rule) that must convince
the jury beyond a reasonable doubt (confidence level). A jury does not declare
the defendant innocent, but rather not guilty.

If the defendant is in fact innocent but the jury decides that he is guilty,
then it has sent an innocent person to jail (type I error). If a defendant is guilty
but the jury finds him not guilty, a criminal is set free (type II error). In the
US criminal court system, a type I error is considered more important than a
type II error, so a type I error is protected against, to the detriment of a type
II error. This assessment is analogous to hypothesis testing (Kenney 1988), as
illustrated in exhibit 7.13.

Usually, the null hypothesis is that something is not present: that a
treatment has no effect or that no difference exists between the effects of
different treatments. The alternative hypothesis is that some effect is present:
that a treatment has an effect or that a difference does exist in the effects of
different treatments. Assuming the null hypothesis is true allows one to com-
pute the probability that the test rejects the null hypothesis, given that it is
true (type I error).

The decision rule is founded on the probability of obtaining a sample
mean (or another statistic) given the hypothesized mean (or another statistic).

A comparison of waiting time at two different clinics, on two different
days, or during two different periods would apply the following hypothesis test:

Type I (α) error
The probability of
rejecting the null
hypothesis when it
is true.

Type II (β) error
The probability of
accepting the null
hypothesis when it
is false.

Reality

Assessment or guess Innocent Guilty

Innocent — Type II error

Guilty Type I error —

EXHIBIT 7.13
Type I and Type
II Error—Court

System Example

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 189

Ho: µ1 – µ2

Ha: µ1 ≠ µ2

Decision rule: If t ≥ t*, reject Ho

(Note that t* is usually determined with statistical software using the Satherwaite
approximation, because the two-sample test statistic does not exactly follow a
t-distribution.) Exhibit 7.14 illustrates the errors associated with this example.

Equal Variance t-Test
If the wait time at two different clinics were of interest, wait time for a ran-
dom sample of patients from each clinic might be measured. If wait time for
a sample of 10 patients (simplified for explanatory purposes) from each clinic
were measured and it was determined that clinic A had a mean wait time of
12 minutes, clinic B had a mean wait time of 10 minutes, and both had a
standard deviation of 1.5 minutes, the standard deviations could be pooled
and the distribution would follow a t-distribution with (n1 + n2 – 2) degrees
of freedom. At a 95 percent confidence level,

t =
x1−x2( )− µ1−µ2( )

s p
1
n1

+
1
n2

,

where

s
n s n s

n n

t

1 1
2

1.5

12 10 0

1.5
1

10
1

10

2
0.67

2.99 * 2.10.

p
1 1

2
2 2

2

1 2

( ) ( )
=

− + −
+ −

=

− −

+
= = ≥ =

Therefore, this test would reject Ho, the belief that the mean wait time at the
two clinics is the same.

Reality

Assessment or Guess

Wait times at the
two clinics are the
same ( µ

1
= µ

2
)

Wait times at the
two clinics are not
the same ( µ

1
≠ µ

2
)

Wait times at the two clinics
are the same ( µ

1
= µ

2
)

— Type II error

Wait times at the two clinics
are not the same ( µ

1
≠ µ

2
)

Type I error —

EXHIBIT 7.14
Type I and Type
II Error—Clinic
Wait Time
Example

Healthcare Operat ions Management190

Alternatively, a 95 percent CI for the difference in the two means could
be found:

(x1−x2)± t*× s p
1
n1

+
1
n2

2−(2.10×0.67)≤µ1−µ2 ≤ 2+ (2.10×0.67)
0.6≤µ1−µ2 ≤3.4.

Because the interval does not contain zero, the wait time for the two clinics
is not the same.

Statistical software provides the p-value of this test. The p-value of a
statistical significance test represents the probability of obtaining values of the
test statistic that are equal to or greater than the observed test statistic. For
the wait time example, the p-value is 0.015, meaning that Ho would be rejected
with a confidence level of up to 98.5 percent, or that zero would not be con-
tained in a 98.5 percent CI for the mean. Smaller p-values cause rejection of
the null hypothesis.

Another type of test is the t-test, which can be used to examine the mean
difference between paired samples; it is performed
when the standard deviations of the means differ.
See the companion website for more information on
these types of t-tests.

Proportions
Consider an example in which staffing levels at two clinics are compared. In
clinic A, the ratio of nurses to total staff is 12 nurses of 20 staff, and in clinic
B, the ratio is 10 of 20. To determine if these proportions are different, we
use the following test:

Ho: π1 – π2
Ha: π1 ≠ π2
Decision rule: If z ≥ z*, reject Ho

The proportion of nurses at clinic A is 12/20 = 0.60, and the proportion of
nurses at clinic B is 10/20 = 0.50. The standard error of the difference in
sample proportions is

( ) ( )−
+

−p p
n

p p
n

1 1
,

1 2

where

( ) ( )
=

+
+

=
+

=p
n p n p

n n
20 0.6 20 0.5

40
0.55.1 1 2 2

1 2

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 191

At a 95 percent confidence level,

z
p p

p p
n

p p
n

=
− − −


+


=

−( ) ( )

( ) ( )

( . .1 2 1 2

1 2

1 1

0 60 0π π 550 0

0 55 0 45
20

0 55 0 45
20

0 10
0

)

( . )( . ) ( . )( . )

.

+

=
..

. * .
157

0 64 1 96.= < =t

Therefore, Ho cannot not be rejected, and no difference can be present in the
proportion of nurses at each clinic.

A CI for a proportion can be found from the following:

p z p z pp− × ≤ ≤ + ×αα σ π σ// 22
,

where
p p

n
(1 )

.p̂σ =

A 95 percent CI for the difference in the two proportions of nurses is

( )
( ) ( )

. – ( . .

p p z
p p

n
p p

n1 2
1 2

1 1

0 10 1 96 0 157

− ± × − + −

× )) – . ( . . )

. – .

≤ ≤ + ×

− ≤ ≤

π π

π π
1 2

1 2

0 10 1 96 0 157

0 2 0 41.

Because the interval contains zero, the proportion of nurses at the two clinics
cannot be different. The p-value for this test is 0.53; therefore, Ho is not rejected.

Practical Versus Statistical Significance
Distinguishing between statistical significance and practical significance is
important because some statistical differences have no impact on the business
and other differences that are not statistically significant may have tremendous
impact. Statistical significance is related to the ability of the test to reject the
null hypothesis, whereas practical significance looks at whether the difference
is large enough to be of value in a practical sense. If the sample size is large
enough, statistical significance can be found for small differences when limited
or no practical importance is associated with the finding.

For instance, in the clinic wait time example, if the mean wait time at
clinic A were 10.1 minutes, the mean wait time at clinic B were 10.0 minutes,
and the standard deviation for both were 1 minute, the difference would not
be significant if the sample size at both clinics were 10. If, however, the sample
size were 1,000, the difference would be statistically significant. The statistical
results from Minitab (a statistical software package) for this example are shown

Statistical
significance
The differences in
two parameters
of two data sets
are large enough
to reject the null
hypothesis using
hypothesis testing.

Practical
significance
The differences
in the parameters
of two data sets
are large enough
to be meaningful
for the person
or organization
studying the
situation, whether
or not they are
statistically
significant.

Healthcare Operat ions Management192

in exhibit 7.15. Tests for statistical significance should not be applied blindly—
the practical significance of a difference of 0.1 minute is a judgment call.

Simple Linear Regression

Regression is a statistical tool used to model the association of a variable with
one or more explanatory variables. The variables are typically metric, although
categorical variables may also be analyzed using regression. The relationship(s)
can be described using an equation.

Simple linear regression is the simplest type of regression. The equation
representing the relationship between two variables is Y = βX + α + ε. Many readers
will remember Y = mX + b from high school. In statistics, α represents the intercept

Simple linear
regression
An equation
that relates two
variables using
a slope and an
intercept in a
linear fashion.

Two-Sample t-Test and CI
Sample N Mean SD SEM
1 10 10.10 1.00 0.32
2 10 10.00 1.00 0.32

Difference = μ1 − μ2

Estimate for difference: 0.100000
95% CI for difference: (−0.839561, 1.039561)
t-Test of difference = 0 (vs. not =): t-value = 0.22
p-Value = 0.826, df = 18
Both use pooled SD = 1.0000

Two-Sample t-Test and CI
Sample N Mean SD SEM
1 1,000 10.10 1.00 0.032
2 1,000 10.00 1.00 0.032

Difference = μ1 − μ2

Estimate for difference: 0.100000
95% CI for difference: (0.012295, 0.187705)
t-Test of difference = 0 (vs. not =): t-value = 2.24
p-Value = 0.025, df = 1,998
Both use pooled SD = 1.0000

EXHIBIT 7.15
Statistical

Significance of
Differences—

Minitab Output
for Clinic Wait
Time Example

Note: CI = confidence interval; df = degrees of freedom; SD = standard deviation; SEM = standard
error of the mean.

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 193

(the b from high school), β signifies the slope (the m from high school; in statistics
m or µ represents the mean, so a different variable name is used), and ε is the error.

A simple example helps illustrate the concept of regression. Assume that
the relationship between number of dependents and yearly healthcare expense
is of interest and the data in exhibit 7.16 have been collected (for explanatory
purposes only, as a larger data set would be needed for a true regression analysis).

First, to visually examine the nature of the relationship between the
variables, a scatter plot of the data (exhibit 7.17) is produced. From the scat-
ter plot, we see that a linear relationship exists—a line can be drawn that best
represents the relationship between the two variables.

The most precise model is one that results in the smallest, or lowest, total
absolute error. The best-fitting regression line minimizes sum of squared error.

The estimated lineŶ = 1.3(X) + 2.4 has the lowest squared error term
for the data (exhibit 7.18).

Interpretation
The linear model presented in exhibit 7.18 is interpreted as follows. The slope
of the line from the previous equation indicates that, with each additional

Number of Dependents Annual Healthcare Expense

0 $3,000

1 $2,000

2 $6,000

3 $7,000

4 $7,000

EXHIBIT 7.16
Data for Regres-
sion Example:
Relationship
Between Num-
ber of Depen-
dents and
Yearly Health-
care Expense

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of Dependents

An
nu

al
H

ea
lt

hc
ar

e
Co

st
($

1,
00

0)

EXHIBIT 7.17
Scatter Plot—
Number of
Dependents
Versus Annual
Healthcare
Costs

Healthcare Operat ions Management194

dependent, the annual cost of healthcare rises by $1,300 on average; the annual
cost of healthcare for people with no dependents is $2,400, as seen by the
location of the intercept. Where X = 0 (no data) and without additional infor-
mation, the intercept is not a meaningful number.

Coefficient of Determination and Correlation Coefficient
The next question is, How good is the model? This measure of how well the
model fits the data is called the coefficient of determination (r2). Note that this
is not a statistical test, but rather a measure of the percentage of error explained
by the model. The square root of this number is called the correlation coef-
ficient (r). A negative correlation coefficient indicates a negative slope, and a
positive correlation coefficient indicates a positive slope. The correlation coef-
ficient is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables, with a value
of 1 indicating perfect correlation and a value of 0 indicating no relationship.
(Refer to exhibit 7.19 for sample scatter plots and their correlation coefficients.)

The coefficient of determination (r2) measures the percentage of variance
explained in Y using the X variable (exhibit 7.19). Examining the regression

Coefficient of
determination
The measure of
how well a model
fits the data.

Correlation
coefficient
A measure of the
linear relationship
between two
variables.

r = 0.00

(2)

X

Y

X

Y (1)

r = 0.05 r = 0.91

(3)

X

Y

r = 0.56

(6)

X

Y

r = 0.79

(5)

X

Y

r = 0.75

(4)

X

Y

EXHIBIT 7.19
Examples of

Low and High r
and r2 Plots

X Y Ŷ = 1(X) + 3 e2 Ŷ = 1.3(X) + 3 e2 Ŷ = 0(X) + 5 e2

0 3 3 0 2.4 0.36 5 4

1 2 4 4 3.7 2.89 5 9

2 6 5 1 5.0 1.00 5 1

3 7 6 1 6.3 0.49 5 4

4 7 7 0 7.6 0.36 5 4

∑ 6 5.10 22

EXHIBIT 7.18
Sum of

Squared Errors
Associated with

the Various
Linear Models

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 195

output of the data from exhibit 7.19, shown in exhibit 7.20, r2 = 0.768, which
can be interpreted as 77 percent of the variance in annual healthcare expense
(Y variable), can be explained by the number of dependents (X variable). The
“best” value a model can achieve is 100 percent of the variance explained. So,
is 77 percent a “good” value? The answer depends on many factors. A number
closer to 100 percent is ideal, but if your sample size is sufficiently large, finding
a variable that explains 25 percent of the variance could be helpful.

Problems with Correlation Coefficients
The coefficient of determination and the correlation coefficient are both mea-
sures of the linear relationship between two variables. A scatter plot of the two
variables should always be examined when initially evaluating the appropriate-
ness of a model. Statistical techniques for judging the appropriateness of the
model are discussed later in this chapter.

Does a low r2 mean that no relationship exists between two variables?
No. Exhibit 7.21 illustrates two cases (1 and 2) in which r2 and r are both 0.
In case 1, no relationship is evident; in case 2, a relationship is seen, just not a
linear relationship. The relationship can be perfectly captured with the equation
Y = α + β1X + β2X2, a curve or quadratic relationship (curve-type relationships
are discussed later in the chapter). A low r2 may also mean that other variables
needed to explain the outcome variable are “missing” from the model.

Does a reasonable or high r2 mean the model is a good fit to the data? No.
Exhibit 7.21 illustrates several cases in which the model is not a good fit to the
data. The r2 and r can be heavily influenced by outliers, as in cases 4 and 6. In case
5, a better model would be a curve. Always look at the scatter plot of the data.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0 1

Number of Dependents

An
nu

al
H

ea
lt

hc
ar

e
Co

st
($

1,
00

0)

10

2 3 4 5

Y = 5
Y = X + 3

Y = 1.3X + 2.4

Y = 1.2X + 2

6

EXHIBIT 7.20
Scatter Plot
with Possible
Relationship
Lines

Healthcare Operat ions Management196

Does a high r 2 mean that useful predictions will be obtained with the
model? No. Recall the previous discussion of practical and statistical signifi-
cance. Finally, does a high r 2 mean that a causal relationship exists between the
variables? No—correlation is not causation. The observed correlation between
two variables might be due to the action of a third, unobserved variable. For
example, Yule (1926) found a high positive correlation between yearly suicides
and membership in the Church of England. However, membership in the
Church of England did not cause suicides.

Statistical Measures of Model Fit
If no linear relationship is present between the two variables, the slope of
the best-fitting line will be 0. This idea undergirds the statistical tests for the
“goodness of fit” of the model.

F-test
The F-test is a hypothesis test of whether all β values in the model Y = α + βX
+ ε are equal to 0. In the case of simple linear regression, there is only one β,
and the test determines whether β is 0.

First, we express the hypotheses and decision rule as follows:

Ho: all β values = 0
Ho: all β values ≠ 0

Decision rule: If F* ≥ F(1–α; 1; n–2), reject Ho

Next, we apply the F-test equation:

F* =
Mean square regression

Mean square error
=

MSR

MSE
=

SSR/1

SSE/n – 2
,

where MSR is mean square regression, MSE is mean square error, SSR is sum
of squares regression, and SSE is sum of squares error. If the two variables
are related, the regression line explains most of the variance and SSR is large
compared to SSE. Therefore, large values of F* imply a relationship and the
slope of the line is not equal to 0.

t-Test
For simple linear regression, the t-test gives the same answer as the F-test. The
t-test is a hypothesis test of whether a particular β is 0.

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.8765
0.7682
0.6909
0.8790

5

Intercept
Y—$1000
Annual
Health care
Expense

Coefficients

–0.9545

0.5909

EXHIBIT 7.21
Regression
Output for
Healthcare

Expense
Example

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 197

H0: β = 0
Ha: β ≠ 0
Decision rule: If t* ≥ F(1–a; 1; n–2), reject Hα,

where
t* = b/sb.

Alternatively, a CI for β would be

b – t(1–α; n–2)sb ≤ β ≤ b – t(1–α; n–2)sb.

If the interval contains 0, Ho can be rejected. Statistical software provides these
tests for linear regression as well as for r and r 2.

Assumptions of Linear Regression
Linear regression is based on several principal assumptions:

• The dependent and independent variables are linearly related.
• The errors associated with the model are not serially correlated.
• The errors are normally distributed and have constant variance.

If these assumptions are violated, the resulting model will be misleading.
Various plots (and statistical tests) can be used to detect such problems.

These plots are usually provided in the software and should be examined for
evidence of violations of the assumptions of regression. A scatter plot of the
observed versus predicted value should be symmetrically distributed around a
diagonal line, and a scatter plot of residuals versus predicted value should be
symmetrically distributed around a horizontal line. A normal probability plot
of the residuals should fall closely around a diagonal line.

If evidence is seen that the assumptions of linear regression are being
violated, a transformation of the dependent or independent variables may fix
the problem. Alternatively, one or two extreme values may be the cause of
assumption violations. Such values should be scrutinized closely: Are they genu-
ine (i.e., not the result of data entry errors), are they explainable, are similar
events likely to occur again in the future, and how influential are they in the
model-fitting results? If the values are merely errors, or if they can be explained
as unique events not likely to be repeated, removing them may not be neces-
sary. In some cases, however, the extreme values in the data may provide the
most useful information about values of some coefficients or provide the most
realistic guide to the magnitudes of prediction errors.

Transformations
If the variables are not linearly related or the assumptions of regression are
violated, the variables can be transformed to possibly produce a better model.
Transformations are applied to ensure that the model is accurate and reliable.

Transformation
The process of
converting a
variable by linear
regression into a
format that is more
readily usable.

Healthcare Operat ions Management198

If a person were to jog to her doctor’s appointment, she would need to wait
before having her blood pressure measured, especially if a high reading would
result in a diagnosis of hypertension. Blood pressure values obtained immedi-
ately after exercising are unsuitable for detecting hypertension; the reason for
waiting is not to avoid the diagnosis of hypertension but to ensure that a high
reading can be believed. The concept is similar with transformations.

Deciding which transformation is best is often an exercise in trial and
error in which several transformations are tried to see which one provides the
best model. Possible transformational functions include square root, square,
cube, log, and inverse. Any data that are transformed need to be accounted for
when interpreting the findings. For example, imagine that the original variable
was measured in days but, to improve the model, an inverse transformation
was applied. Here, the lower the value for this transformed variable (1/days),
the higher the value of the original variable (days). If the dependent variable is
binary (0/1), the assumptions of regression are violated. The logit transforma-
tion of the variable, ln[p/(1 – p)], is used in this case.

Conclusion

An outline for analysis is shown in exhibit 7.22, with each item correspond-
ing to the steps in the plan-do-check-act process for continuous improvement
(chapter 9), the define-measure-analyze-improve-control process of Six Sigma
(chapter 9), and the key elements of decision making (chapter 6).

PDCA DMAIC Key Element

1. Define the problem/question. Plan Define Frame

2. Determine what data will be
needed to address the problem/
question.

Plan Define Frame

3. Collect the data. Do Measure Gather

4. Graph the data. Do Analyze Gather

5. Analyze the data using the appro-
priate tool.

Do Analyze Conclude

6. Fix the problem. Do Improve Conclude

7. Evaluate the effectiveness of the
solution.

Check Control Learn

8. Start again. Plan Define Frame

Note: DMAIC = define, measure, analyze, improve, and control; PDCA = plan, do, check, and act.

EXHIBIT 7.22
Outline for

Analysis

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 199

Which Technique to Use
The statistical tool or technique chosen to analyze the data depends on the
type of data collected. The next chapter, on healthcare analytics, discusses
techniques to gain insights from data using current
technology. In addition, more traditional statistical
tests are included in the supplemental section on the
book’s companion website.

Discussion Questions

1. Discuss a situation from your personal experience in which a study had
bad data. How were the data collected, and what were the reported
problems with data collection?

2. John Allen Paulos (whose work can be found at http://abcnews.go.
com/Technology/WhosCounting/) and Jordan Ellenberg (at www.
slate.com/authors.jordan_ellenberg.html) both write on numbers,
statistics, and probability. Read an article of interest to you and discuss.

3. How would you redesign a report you receive at work to make it more
useful? Would a visual presentation of the data be helpful? How would
you present the data?

4. Discuss the difference between correlation and causation.
5. Discuss the difference between statistical significance and practical

significance.
6. The balanced scorecard, Six Sigma, Lean, and simulation employ many

of the tools, techniques, and tests found in this chapter. Discuss how,
where, and why a particular tool would be used for each approach.

Exercises

The following problems use data from three data
sets available on the companion website. Each data
set contains the raw data as well as reduced or reor-
ganized data for ease of analysis.

1. Think of a question, a problem, or an issue in your organization, and
design a study to address it. Be sure to discuss how you would address
all aspects of data collection, including how you would collect the data.
How could you make sure the data are representative of the actual
situation?

2. Using the data in the file labeled HealthInsuranceCoverage.xls,
compare insurance coverage in Minnesota to coverage in Texas.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Healthcare Operat ions Management200

a. Analyze the validity of the data.
b. Produce a histogram to compare the two states. Do Minnesota and

Texas appear to have similar coverage types?
c. Produce a Pareto chart for the two states. What does this chart

indicate?
d. What is the probability that a resident of Minnesota or Texas will be

uninsured? Insured? Insured by Medicare or Medicaid?
e. What is the 95 percent CI for the proportion of uninsured in Texas?

In Minnesota? What is the 99 percent CI?
f. What is the 99 percent CI for the difference in the two propor tions?
g. Set up and perform a hypothesis test to determine if the proportion

of uninsured differs at a 95 percent confidence level between the two
states.

h. Comment on the statement, “Living in Texas causes more people to
be uninsured.” What other information might be helpful to either
validate or disprove the statement?

3. Use the data in the file labeled WorldHealth.xls to analyze worldwide
life expectancy. Answer the following questions:
a. Construct a histogram, dot plot, and normal probability plot of the

Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) totals for life expectancy at birth
(years) for 2006. What do these graphs indicate? Is this random
variable normally distributed?

b. Construct a graph of the CIA life expectancy data—total, male, and
female. What do these graphs show?

c. Determine the mean, median, mode, range, variance, and standard
deviation for the CIA life expectancy data—total, male, and female.
What do these numbers show?

d. What is the 95 percent CI for mean life expectancy of males and
females as reflected in the CIA data? The 99 percent CI?

e. What is the 99 percent CI for the difference in the two means?
f. Set up and perform a hypothesis test to determine if life expectancy

for males and females differs at a 95 percent confidence level.
g. Construct histogram and normal probability plots for the CIA

gross domestic product, television, and hospital bed data. Do these
random variables appear normally distributed?

h. Perform three separate simple linear regression analyses for the
CIA gross domestic product, television, and hospital bed data with
the CIA life expectancy total. Interpret your results. (Note: Excel
will not perform a regression analysis when data are missing. The
Excel workbook titled “World Health Regression” has eliminated

Chapter 7: Stat ist ical Thinking and Stat ist ical Problem Solving 201

countries for which no data are available on life expectancy. You may
need to sort the data and run the analysis only on complete data.)

i. Discuss the following statement: “World life expectancy could be
increased if everyone in the world owned a television.”

j. Look at x-y scatter plots for each pair of variables in exercise 3h. Do
the relationships appear to be linear? Would a transformation of the
x variable improve the regression?

References

Botelho, G. 2016. “Zika Virus ‘Spreading Explosively,’ WHO Leader Says.” CNN. Updated
February 20. www.cnn.com/2016/01/28/health/zika-virus-global-response/.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2016a. “About Zika.” Updated August
1. www.cdc.gov/zika/about/index.html.

———. 2016b. “Health Effects & Risks.” Updated August 9. www.cdc.gov/zika/pregnancy/
question-answers.html.

DeLia, D. 2007. “Hospital Capacity, Patient Flow, and Emergency Department Use in New
Jersey.” Rutgers Center for State Health Policy. Published September. www.cshp.
rutgers.edu/Downloads/7510.pdf.

Juran, J. M., and J. A. De Feo. 2010. Juran’s Quality Handbook: The Complete Guide to
Performance Excellence, 6th edition. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.

Kenney, J. M. 1988. “Hypothesis Testing: Guilty or Innocent.” Quality Progress 21 (1): 55–57.
Meltzer, M. I., C. Y. Atkins, S. Santibanez, B. Knust, B. W. Petersen, E. D. Ervin, S. T.

Nichol, I. K. Damon, and M. L. Washington. 2014. “Estimating the Future Number
of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic—Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015.” Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention. Published September 26. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/
preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm.

Sanchez, R. 2014. “WHO to Review Ebola Response Amid Criticism of Its Efforts.” CNN.
Updated October 19. www.cnn.com/2014/10/18/world/who-ebola-response/
index.html.

Truelsen, T., and M. Grønbæk. 1999. “Wine Consumption and Cerebrovascular Disease
Mortality in Spain.” Stroke 30 (1): 186–88.

Tufte, E. R. 1997. Visual Explanations: Images and Quantities, Evidence and Narrative.
Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.

———. 1990. Envisioning Information. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.
———. 1983. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Cheshire, CT: Graphics Press.
Yule, G. U. 1926. “Why Do We Sometimes Get Nonsense-Correlations Between Time-

Series?—A Study in Sampling and the Nature of Time-Series.” Journal of the Royal
Statistical Society 89 (1): 1–63.

CHAPTER

203

HEALTHCARE ANALYTICS

Operations Management in Action

A major clinical research study was one of the earli-
est and best uses of clinical big data and advanced
analytics. In the mid-1990s, a number of new drugs
came onto the market to control hypertension. Early
studies showed these new drugs to be effective, but
they were much more expensive than the existing
therapies.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) undertook a large study, known as
ALLHAT, to evaluate these new pharmaceuticals in terms of their specific level of
effectiveness. The study took eight years and cost $120 million to complete. The
results, announced in 2002, were surprising: The investigators found that for approxi-
mately 40 percent of the population, the older therapies worked as well as the new
drugs. However, for the remaining 60 percent, the newer drugs appeared to be
superior. The next important question was how to determine which of the newer
drugs worked best for which patients. The NIH had neither the funding nor the time
to complete this next study.

However, Kaiser Permanente researchers had been following the study and
decided to embark on their own version of the phase II study using the organization’s
electronic patient records. Using better data from the electronic health records (EHRs)
than were available to the NIH, the researchers were able to match their patients
to the most effective drugs within 18 months—at a cost of $200,000. The analytics
gathered from the EHR allowed the researchers to finish the study at much lower
cost and more quickly than the larger NIH study could have.

Source: Begley (2011).

What Is Analytics in Healthcare?

In 2007, Thomas Davenport and Jeanne Harris wrote their seminal book,
Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning. This text demonstrates
how companies from many different industries can use analytics to create value
and improve organizational performance.

8
OVE RVI EW

“Too much data and not enough information” has never

resonated more than in today’s healthcare environ-

ment. In response, the disciplines of analytics, big data,

and informatics have exploded and even become com-

monplace in hospital and health system operations.

Healthcare Operat ions Management204

Analytics, defined by one source as the “the systematic computational
analysis of data or statistics” (Oxford Living Dictionaries 2016), has become
particularly popular across the healthcare landscape for a number of reasons:

• More data than ever before are generated and available—particularly
with the wide adoption of EHRs.

• The current regulatory environment requires the reporting of
thousands of measures.

• Hospitals and health systems are facing increased pressure to improve
clinical, operational, and financial results.

• Population health has become a competitive strategy, and analytics is
crucial to shaping effective population health initiatives.

• Information technology and software are increasingly sophisticated,
allowing analysis of data on a massive scale.

More Data
Due to ever-increasing computing power and the advent of cloud storage,
smartphones, and other technologies, more data and information are available
today than ever before. This availability presents both challenges and oppor-
tunities in data storage, security, and management. In large part because of
the availability of funds—and new mandates—from the American Recovery
and Reinvestment Act of 2009, most hospitals and clinics have installed EHR
systems. The massive conversion from paper charts and records was difficult
for many organizations to accomplish, but EHRs are finally stable enough to
be used as a good data resource. Epic Systems Corporation and Cerner Cor-
poration are the two largest software companies to have created platforms to
store health records. The widespread use of these systems has given healthcare
providers the capability to longitudinally collect data on patients, which offer
healthcare systems comprehensive insights and, potentially, the capability to
improve care decision making.

Regulatory Environment
The effective use of analytics can help healthcare organizations manage mounting
regulatory pressures. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services requires every
hospital to report approximately 1,700 quality measures for regulatory compliance
(Blumenthal, Malphrus, and McGinnis 2015). The sheer number of data points
that must be collected forces organizations to dedicate significant resources to
collecting and managing the data. And this effort does not take into account
the additional resources required to analyze and make decisions with the data.

Pressure to Produce Results
In Minnesota, a unique relationship was formed between Allina Health and
Health Catalyst. Health Catalyst provides analytics services to Allina to assist

Chapter 8: Healthcare Analyt ics 205

in project management, continuous improvement, population health analysis,
and financial analytics. The use of large-scale data allows the healthcare system
to focus on achieving results through coordinated efforts. Data have been used
to analyze a variety of system elements, including doctors’ efficiency, clinic
efficiency, and overall system effectiveness.

Healthcare regulation and competition pressure have changed the mar-
ketplace for health systems. Organizations need a systematic approach to reduc-
ing costs and finding new market opportunities. The operations improvement
tools discussed in many of the chapters of this book can be made more powerful
with the use of advanced analytics.

Population Health
Kindig and Stoddart (2003) define population health as “the health outcomes
of a group of individuals, including the distribution of such outcomes within
the group.” The increased use of EHRs gives health systems the ability to
understand the costs and clinical trends related to the patients they serve.
This capability allows the development of specific treatments for diseases and
conditions, which leads to improved outcomes. One of the hallmarks of big
data analysis in healthcare is the use of predictive models.

Winters-Miner (2014) identifies seven ways predictive analytics can
improve healthcare:

• Improves diagnosis
• Helps with preventive medicine and public health efforts
• Provides answers to physicians for the treatment of individual patients
• Provides employers and hospitals tools to predict insurance product costs
• Allows smaller test cases to be used to prove models
• Helps pharmaceutical companies meet the needs of the public for

medication
• Potentially helps improve outcomes

Sophisticated Technology
Technology breakthroughs are enabling analysts to tackle increasingly complex
problems. Analytics technology not only allows larger data sets to be used but
also increases the speed in which analysis can be completed.

Introduction to Data Analytics

The goal of data (big and small) analytics is to obtain actionable insights that
result in smarter decisions and better business outcomes. Many of the tools
and statistical techniques from chapters 6 and 7 can be applied in an analytics
environment.

Healthcare Operat ions Management206

The basic work of an analyst is to build a data framework through the
following major goals:

• Gathering data—Data are the facts provided by databases.
• Building information—Information is the layer on top of data that

helps make sense of the data. Without essential knowledge of the
business situation, the information is likely not valuable.

• Gaining actionable insights—Actionable insights are those nuggets
of knowledge from the information that affect the organization. The
insights should enhance a leader’s ability to make improved decisions.

This framework for data analysis provides the background for the various forms
of analytics.

Analytics can be described as taking place in three distinct phases:

• Descriptive analytics
• Predictive analytics
• Prescriptive analytics

Descriptive Analytics
Descriptive analytics is the process of condensing large data sets into meaningful
information that can assist in decision making. Descriptive statistics examine
past performance and summarize data to discern trends and patterns to explain
behavior. In healthcare, reporting mechanisms such as regulatory compliance,
quality measures, and financial results commonly use descriptive analytics.

Descriptive analytics makes up the largest subset of the analytics field.
One main feature of data visualization is making data consumable by people.
The process of converting raw data is necessary because data alone are not
typically usable to managers.

Examples of descriptive analytics outputs include the following:

• Business intelligence reports
• Dashboards with key performance indicators (KPIs)
• Descriptive statistics
• Traditional data visualization techniques

Predictive Analytics
Predictive analytics builds models on the basis of data that can help forecast
the future in terms of probabilities. Models cannot perfectly predict the future
but can provide insights for individuals to make effective decisions. Predictive
analytics uses a variety of statistical techniques ranging from regression modeling
to machine learning to data mining to make projections about future events.

Business
intelligence
The process of
converting raw
data through a
variety of methods
into information
that can assist with
decision making.

Chapter 8: Healthcare Analyt ics 207

In healthcare, the use of predictive models has become popular in disease
management and population health. For example, some healthcare organiza-
tions have begun to examine early indicators of diabetes to help prevent and
lower costs associated with diabetes management (Barton 2016). This analytics
activity is important as, according the Centers for Disease Control and Preven-
tion (CDC 2009), more than 75 percent of total healthcare spending in the
United States is related to chronic healthcare conditions.

At Hennepin County Medical Center (HCMC), the population health
analysts discovered that individuals diagnosed with HIV also suffered from
poor nutrition. A predictive model was constructed showing the positive impact
of improved nutrition on healthcare costs. Today, HCMC distributes healthy
food with HIV medications for many of the patients in this population and
have found overall costs to be reduced.

In short, predictive models have become a common approach to help
reduce overall costs, improve quality outcomes, and lower overall patient risk.

Predictive Tools
Three approaches are typically used for developing predictive models: regres-
sions, decision trees, and neural networks.

Regressions
Chapters 7 and 13 describe a number of regression-type approaches that can
be used to predict future performance from historical data. Most analytical
software (e.g., SAS, SPSS) packages include numerous regression tools.

Decision Trees
Decision trees are a form of “supervised learning” tools. The decision tree
algorithm first suggests a split of the databases into a series of “leaves,” whereby
each data point is allocated to one leaf. If the analyst agrees with the computer’s
selection of leaves, the computer then suggests a further subdivision of the
leaves. This process continues until the analyst believes the full tree represents
a good model of the data.

Although regressions may be more accurate in their predictive capability,
decision trees are useful for explaining the predictions to nonanalysts. A ver-
sion of the decision tree tool was used to create the Medicare diagnosis-related
group (DRG) system in 1983. Exhibit 8.1 demonstrates the use of a decision
tree to predict annual costs for Medicare patients.

Neural Networks
Neural networks attempt to mimic the human brain in the following ways:

• Input units obtain the values of input variables and, if the analyst
chooses, standardize those values.

Healthcare Operat ions Management208

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Chapter 8: Healthcare Analyt ics 209

• Hidden units perform internal computations, providing the nonlinearity
that makes neural networks powerful.

• Output units compute predicted values and compare those predicted
values with the values of the target variables.

Units pass information to other units through connections. Connections are
directional and indicate the flow of computation in the network.

Once a neural network is created, it can be applied to predict outputs on
the basis of new inputs. A challenge in using neural networks is that they are
sensitive to the initial data used to calibrate the network. In addition, because
of the hidden computations, neural networks are difficult to diagnose and
correct if they are not operating properly.

Prescriptive Analytics
Prescriptive analytics provides decision makers with models that offer guidance
in the form of recommendations. These models use a combination of predictive
models, optimization, mathematical models, and other techniques to generate
prescriptive solutions. Examples of prescriptive models include the following:

• Models for staffing that maximize quality outcomes and minimize costs
• Models to maximize capacity in operating rooms
• Strategic models that demonstrate efficient allocation of capital

investments
• Risk models that minimize adverse health events

Healthcare problems are complex and multidimensional and can be
difficult to model. In the modeling process, many assumptions are made in
prescriptive models such as optimization. Decision makers can use prescrip-
tive models in combination with their knowledge of the healthcare system to
make effective decisions.

Data Visualization

Data visualization tools help decision makers extract value from raw big data.
They enable users to quickly view, and make sense of, large amounts of data
and to combine several data sources.

When dealing with most real-world data sets, the analyst can expect to
spend up to 80 percent of her time finding, acquiring, loading, cleaning, and
transforming data. Some of this process can be performed with automated
tools, but almost any data cleaning involving two or more data sets requires
some level of manual work.

Healthcare Operat ions Management210

Many forms of data visualization have been developed. Those discussed
in this section include traditional charts and graphs and dashboards. These
examples represent just a few of the common forms of visualization used today
in hospitals and health systems.

Traditional Charts and Graphs
Bar Graphs
Bar graphs, or column graphs, help users visualize the scale of differences
between categories. Exhibit 8.2 is a bar graph showing how much a hospital
system is spending on purchasing by vendor type. This is a classic example of
a traditional business intelligence report created in Microsoft Excel.

Line Graphs
Another traditional business intelligence report is a classic line graph. Line
graphs are useful in examining data over time. Exhibit 8.3 is a line graph show-
ing the number of cases of biological agents reported to the CDC from 1957
to 2012. The peak in the early 2000s represents the anthrax cases reported
in the time frame following the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York City and
Washington, D.C., in 2001. As the exhibit demonstrates, line graphs reveal
opportunities to explore trends and peaks in activity.

Map Functionality
Exhibit 8.4 is an example of a map of diabetes concentration by county in the
United States created in Tableau. Tableau is a powerful data analysis and visu-
alization software that allows a user to create pictures by inputting data. While

Dual Source Multi Source Sole Source
Total 99863523.02 298821859.6 183731163.3

$-

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$350,000,000

Vendor Arrangement

EXHIBIT 8.2
Bar Graph

Showing Total
Allocation by
Vendor Type

Chapter 8: Healthcare Analyt ics 211

such mapping does not have any predictive capability, exhibit 8.4 demonstrates
its effectiveness in showing, for example, where the highest concentrations of
reported diabetes patients reside. These types of maps help decision makers
understand the concentration of data in geographic locations.

1957
0

10

20

N
um

be
r

Year

Biologic terrorism-related cases

30

40

1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

EXHIBIT 8.3
Line Graph
Showing
Number of
Biological Agent
Cases Reported,
1957–2012

Source: Adams et al. (2014).

EXHIBIT 8.4
Interactive Map
of Diabetes
Prevalence by
US County,
2004–2012

Source: Cook (2015). Used with permission.

Note: Higher numbers and darker grayscale indicate an increase in diabetes prevalence.

Healthcare Operat ions Management212

Histograms and Scatter Plots
Scatter plots show the relationships between two variables, and histograms
are graphical representations of the distribution of data. These visualization
techniques are covered in more detail later in the chapter.

Dashboards1

A key purpose of an analytics department is to collect and define metrics and
KPIs for executive and operational dashboards. While the techniques discussed
here can be used across many different business intelligence gathering efforts,
they are also useful for collecting and organizing business data into a format
for effective dashboard design.

With the explosion of dashboard tools and technologies in the busi-
ness intelligence market, many people have different understandings of what
a dashboard, metric, and KPI consist of. In an effort to create a common
vocabulary, we define a set of terms that form the basis of our discussion.
Although the definitions provided in the following subsection might seem
onerous and require a second reading to fully understand them, once grasped,
these concepts avail you of a powerful set of tools for creating dashboards with
effective and meaningful metrics and KPIs.

Metrics and Key Performance Indicators
Metrics and KPIs are the building blocks of many dashboard visualizations,
as these components are the most effective means of alerting users to their
progress toward achieving their objectives. In addition to being the products
of an organization’s goals and objectives, metrics and KPIs may arise from
strategy maps (discussed in chapter 4).

The definitions that follow build from one concept to the next and help
inform dashboard design. Take the time to understand each definition and the
related concepts before moving on to the next definition.

Metrics
The term metric refers to a direct numerical measure that represents a piece
of business data in relationship with one or more dimensions. One example is
gross sales by week. The measure is dollars (gross sales), and the dimension is
time (week). For any given measure, viewing the values across different hier-
archies in a dimension may be helpful. For instance, a display of gross sales by
day, week, and month shows the dollars (gross sales) measure along different
hierarchies (day, week, and month) in the time dimension. The term grain refers
to the association of a measure with a specific hierarchical level in a dimension.

Looking at a measure across more than one dimension, such as gross
sales by territory and time, is called multidimensional analysis. Most dashboards
do not leverage multidimensional analysis except in a limited and static way;
more dynamic “slice and dice” tools are available in the business intelligence

Chapter 8: Healthcare Analyt ics 213

market. This qualification is important to note. Say you uncover a significant
need for this type of analysis in the requirements gathering process. Know-
ing that these robust tools exist, you have the option of supplementing your
dashboards with some type of multidimensional analysis tool.

Key Performance Indicators
A KPI is simply a metric that is tied to a target. Most often, a KPI represents
the distance a metric is above or below a predetermined target. KPIs usually
are shown as a ratio of actual to target and are designed to instantly let a busi-
ness user know if he is on or off track without having to consciously focus
on the metrics represented. For instance, an organization may decide that, to
hit the quarterly sales target, it needs to sell $10,000 worth of syringes per
week. The metric is syringe sales per week, and the target is $10,000. Using
a percentage gauge visualization to represent this KPI, and assuming we had
sold $8,000 in syringes by Wednesday, the user would instantly see that he is
at 80 percent of the goal.

When selecting targets for KPIs, remember that a target is needed for
each grain you want to view in a metric. Having a dashboard that displays a
KPI for gross sales by day, week, and month, for example, requires that targets
be identified for each associated grain.

Scorecards, Dashboards, and Reports
The difference between a scorecard, a dashboard, and a report can be one
of fine distinctions. Each of these tools can combine elements of the other,
but at a high level they all target distinct and separate levels of the business
decision-making process.

Scorecards
Starting at the highest, most strategic level of the business decision-making
spectrum are scorecards. Scorecards are primarily used to help align operational
execution with business strategy. The goal of a scorecard is to keep the business
focused on a common strategic plan by monitoring real-world execution and
mapping the results of that execution back to a specific strategy (see chapter
4). The primary measurement used in a scorecard is the KPI. These indicators
are often a composite of several metrics or other KPIs that measure the orga-
nization’s ability to execute a strategic objective. One example of a scorecard
KPI is profitable sales growth, which combines several weighted measures,
such as new customer acquisition, sales volume, and gross profitability, into
one final score.

Dashboards
A dashboard resides one level down from a scorecard in the business decision-
making process, as it is less focused on a strategic objective and more tied to

Healthcare Operat ions Management214

operational goals. An operational goal may directly contribute to one or more
high-level strategic objectives. In a dashboard, execution of the operational
goal itself becomes the focus, not the high-level strategy.

The purpose of a dashboard is to provide the user with actionable busi-
ness information in a format that is both intuitive and insightful. Dashboards
leverage operational data primarily in the form of metrics and KPIs.

Reports
Probably the most prevalent business intelligence tool seen in business today
is the traditional report. Reports can be simple and static in nature, such as a
list of sales transactions for a given time period, or more sophisticated cross-tab
reports with nested groupings, rolling summaries, and dynamic drill-through
or linking. Reports are most appropriate when the user needs to look at raw
data in an easy-to-read format.

When combined with scorecards and dashboards, reports allow users
to analyze the specific data underlying their metrics and KPIs.

Gathering Key Performance Indicator and Metric Requirements for a
Dashboard
Traditional business intelligence projects often take a bottom-up approach in
determining requirements, where the focus is on the domain of data and the
relationships that exist in those data. When collecting metrics and KPIs for
your dashboard project, however, taking a top-down approach is preferred. A
top-down approach starts with the business decisions that must be made first
and then works down into the data needed to support those decisions. To take
a top-down approach, you must involve the business users who will be utilizing
these dashboards, as these are the only people who can determine the relevancy
of specific business data to their decision-making process.

Data Mining for Discovery

The vast majority of work being performed in healthcare analytics today is in
reporting (descriptive analytics), with some highly specialized work in both
predictive and prescriptive analytics. Almost all of these tasks share a common
characteristic: They entertain a specific hypothesis. Examples are as follows:

• I believe that patients of some doctors experience significantly longer
lengths of stay than those of other doctors for the same DRG.

• I believe I can predict the amount of time a health plan will take to
remit payment.

• I believe I can predict which patients will not fill their prescriptions on
the basis of their zip code.

Chapter 8: Healthcare Analyt ics 215

However, another powerful approach—data mining—is being used in
industries outside of healthcare. In this approach, data are explored without a
specific hypothesis being established, relying only on a general sense that the
data might reveal insights. Data mining is a subfield of computer science that
uses algorithms to discover patterns of data interactions in large data sets. It
uses artificial intelligence machine learning, classical statistics, and advanced
database systems such as Hadoop. Examples of data mining tools are cluster-
ing and text mining. Cognitive computing tools such as IBM’s Watson also
support data mining.

Clustering
Clustering places objects into groups, or clusters, suggested by the nature of
the data. The objects in each cluster tend to be similar to each other in some
sense, and objects in different clusters tend to be dissimilar. If obvious clusters
or groupings are developed prior to the analysis, the clustering analysis can be
performed by simply sorting the data.

The clustering methods perform disjoint cluster analysis on the basis
of Euclidean distances computed from one or more quantitative variables and
seeds that are generated and updated by the algorithm. The user can specify
the clustering criterion used to measure the distance between data observations
and seeds. The observations are divided into clusters so that every observation
belongs to at most one cluster.

After clustering is performed, the characteristics of the clusters can be
examined graphically using a clustering package in software such R or SAS
statistical packages. Exhibit 8.5 is a cluster analysis of the same Medicare data
used for the decision tree in exhibit 8.1. Note that beneficiaries with chronic
conditions cluster together because of their high use of inpatient services.

Text Mining
EHRs contain a significant amount of text, such as doctors’ and nurses’ notes.
Therefore, a useful subset of data mining tools for healthcare providers is text
miners. The case study that follows demonstrates the applicability of text min-
ing to public health initiatives.

Case Example: Text Mining at the State Fair
The authors undertook an engagement in 2015 to assist a local nonprofit,
Health Fair 11, an annual event sponsored by a local television station in
Minneapolis–St. Paul in conjunction with the Minnesota State Fair (for more
information, visit www.kare11.com/news/health/healthfair-11/a-healthy-
minnesota-state-fair-tradition/296307902). The initiative provides fairgoers
with access to medical workers who check pulses, blood pressures, glucose
levels, weight, and eyes and ears for potential health problems. Flu shots are
also available, and advocacy groups are on hand to share health information

Healthcare Operat ions Management216

on topics from gluten-free diets to stroke prevention to memory loss. Vendor
groups include nonprofit organizations, professional associations, and for-
profit companies.

The managers of Health Fair 11 were interested to know if their opera-
tional strategy needed adjustment. We surveyed a sample of 351 participants
over six days. One of the key questions we asked was, “Why did you choose
to get health screening at the state fair?” Our general hypothesis was that the
reason fairgoers used the Health Fair 11 screening services was either low
cost or convenience. In addition to the results from these two options on our
data collection form, we collected text answers (comments written freehand
on the form).

We then used SAS text miner Topic tools to cluster the text responses.
Exhibit 8.6 is the clustered response. Much to our surprise, the word fun
appeared frequently. This unexpected result allowed us to pursue this concept
with the organization and its vendors. We came to understand that the fair-
goers felt empowered and engaged in this screening, as they were in control
and did not have to go through the many gatekeepers of the traditional health
system. This finding has proved useful to Health Fair 11 and carries important
implications for primary care and population health.

Plan_CVRG_TOT_NUM

CLUS5

CLUS3

SP_STRKETIA

SP_CNCR CLUS8

SP_DEPRESSN

SP_CHRNKIDN

SP_RA_OA SP_ISCHMCHT
SP_CHF

SP_OSTEOPRS

SP_ALZHDMTA

SP_DIABETES
SP_COPD

CLUS1

CLUS2

CLUS10

CLUS9

CLUS6

MEDREIMB_CAR

MEDREIMB_OP

BENRES_IP

PPPYMT_IP

SP_STATE_CODE

CLUS4 BENRES_CAR
BENE_DEATH_DT

BENE_COUNTY_CD

BENE_RACE_CD

BENRES_OP

PPPYMT_CAR

PPPYMT_OP

BENE_HI_CVRAGE_TOT_MONS

BENE_SMI_CVRAGE_TOT_MONS

BENE_BIRTH_DT

BENE_SEX_IDENT_CD

CLUS7

HMO_CVRAGE_TOT_MONS

Note: Data used in this exhibit are the same as those used for the decision tree in exhibit 8.1.

EXHIBIT 8.5
Cluster Analysis

of Sample
Medicare Data

Chapter 8: Healthcare Analyt ics 217

Cognitive Computing for Data Mining
As discussed earlier, a major challenge for the analyst is data preparation and
deployment of the analytical tools in the most sophisticated software packages.
To address this issue, a number of technology firms are developing cognitive
computing systems to simplify this work. Cognitive computing systems are
designed to mimic human thought and provide natural language interfaces. A
leading example is IBM Watson Analytics. Users load data into the system, and
Watson performs significant preprocessing to suggest interesting correlations
for the analyst to examine.

Exhibit 8.7 shows the starting screen from Watson as it looks at the
Medicare beneficiary data used in earlier examples. It immediately offers six
questions for the analyst to pursue. It also provides a natural language inquiry
interface to delve deeper into the data.

Watson is a sophisticated example of a supervised learning tool and will
continue to evolve as its underlying artificial intelligence software improves.

Conclusion

Analytics has become increasingly prevalent in healthcare. Hospitals and health-
care systems are using analytics as a means to gain insights into strategic, opera-
tional, and clinical issues. Today, the technology enables healthcare analytics to

W3 – Why did you get screening here?

Topic
No. of
documents

1 fun,+learn,fun-check,doctor,doc’s office 5

2 +screening,clinic,+check,office,health assessment 6

3 md,md’s office,fair,offer,sucha 1

4 +learn,+live,fun-check,doctor,doc’s office 3

5 time,fun-check,doctor,doc’s office,doc 2

6 fair,information,valuable-love,access,convenient 2

7 +check,work,industry,+thing,health 4

8 doctor,fun-check,+visit,test,doc’s office 2

9 sitting,down,cool,fan,fun-check 1

10 health assessment,keep,assessment,awareness,+build 2

11 random check,random,check,fun-check,doctor 1

12 doc’s office,doc,office,+screening,work 3

EXHIBIT 8.6
Text Clustering
Results from
Health Fair 11
Survey

Healthcare Operat ions Management218

produce better visuals, build more sophisticated models, and analyze much more
complex large data sets than at any time in the past. When executed correctly,
data are converted into actionable insights that allow enhanced decision making.

Discussion Questions

1. Identify a healthcare operating issue that could benefit from each of the
analytical techniques:
a. Descriptive
b. Predictive
c. Prescriptive

2. How could text mining be used to improve the care of patients with
chronic disease?

3. Design a dashboard for each of the following care delivery types:
a. Inpatient intensive care unit
b. Outpatient imaging center
c. Dental office
d. Home health agency

EXHIBIT 8.7
Opening Page

Screenshot
from Watson

Analytics

Source: IBM Watson Analytics. Used with permission.

Chapter 8: Healthcare Analyt ics 219

Note

1. Portions of this section are adapted from BrightPoint Consulting (2016).
Used with permission.

References

Adams, D. A., R. A. Jajosky, U. Ajani, J. Kriseman, P. Sharp, D. H. Onweh, A. W. Schley,
W. J. Anderson, A. Grigoryan, A. E. Aranas, M. S. Wodajo, and J. P. Abellera. 2014.
“Summary of Notifiable Diseases—United States, 2012.” Morbidity and Mortality
Weekly Report. Published September 19. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/
mm6153a1.htm.

Barton, M. 2016. “Understanding Population Health Management: A Diabetes Example.”
Health Catalyst. Accessed August 31. www.healthcatalyst.com/managing-
diabetes-population-health-management.

Begley, S. 2011. “The Best Medicine.” Scientific American 305 (1): 50–55.
Blumenthal, D., E. Malphrus, and J. M. McGinnis (ed.), Committee on Core Metrics for

Better Health at Lower Cost, Institute of Medicine. 2015. Vital Signs: Core Metrics
for Health and Health Care Progress. Washington, DC: National Academies Press.

BrightPoint Consulting. 2016. “Dashboard Design: Key Performance Indicators
and Metrics.” Accessed October 17. www.brightpointinc.com/download/
key-performace-indicators/.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2009. “The Power of Prevention:
Chronic Disease . . . the Public Health Challenge of the 21st Century.” Accessed
August 31, 2016. www.cdc.gov/chronicdisease/pdf/2009-power-of-prevention.pdf.

Cook, L. 2015. “America’s Problem with Diabetes, in One Map.” US News & World Report.
Published April 9. www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2015/04/09/
americas-problem-with-diabetes-in-one-map.

Davenport, T. H., and J. G. Harris. 2007. Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Win-
ning. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press.

Kindig, D., and G. Stoddart. 2003. “What Is Population Health?” American Journal of
Public Health 93 (3): 380–83.

Oxford Living Dictionaries. 2016. “Analytics.” Accessed December 30. https://
en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/analytics.

Winters-Miner, L. A. 2014. “Seven Ways Predictive Analytics Can Improve Health-
care.” Elsevier Connect. Published October 6. www.elsevier.com/connect/
seven-ways-predictive-analytics-can-improve-healthcare.

CHAPTER

221

QUALITY MANAGEMENT—FOCUS ON
SIX SIGMA

Operations Management in
Action

In 2015, HealthPartners, an integrated healthcare
organization based in Minnesota, conducted a
Six Sigma study to examine Clostridium difficile
(C. diff) in Regions Hospital. The reduction of C.
diff targeted several elements of the Institute for
Healthcare Improvement’s Triple Aim.

The business case behind a C. diff proj-
ect is that it can address all three elements of
the Triple Aim: enhanced care, improved patient
experience, and reduced healthcare costs. First,
C. diff is the leading cause of antibiotic-associated
diarrhea and a highly problematic healthcare-
associated infection (Khanna and Pardi 2012).
The reduction of C. diff will have a positive impact
on patient care. Second, any infection causes pain
and discomfort, directly affecting the patient’s
experience with the healthcare visit. Finally, a
single inpatient C. diff infection incurs a total
average cost of more than $35,000 and results
in an average increase in hospital length of stay
by 2.8 to 5.5 days (Walsh 2012).

The Regions team followed a traditional
Six Sigma approach to reduce the number of C.
diff cases in its system. The team created a project
charter, conducted voice of the customer (VOC)
interviews, measured baseline performance, and
applied several fundamental quality tools to exam-
ine the problem. A cause-and-effect diagram with
a five whys analysis led to the discovery of several
root causes of C. diff infection at Regions Hospital.

9
OVE RVI EW

Quality management became imperative for the manufac-

turing sector in the 1970s and 1980s; for service organiza-

tions in the 1980s and 1990s; and, finally, for the health-

care industry in the 1990s, culminating with the landmark

Institute of Medicine (IOM 1999) report To Err Is Human.

The report details alarming statistics on the number of

people harmed by the US healthcare system and recom-

mends major improvements in quality as related to patient

safety. In it, IOM recognizes the need for systemic changes

and calls for innovative solutions to ensure improvement

in the quality of healthcare.

Since that groundbreaking publication, IOM has

commissioned a committee to make recommendations

on achieving a more value- and science-driven healthcare

system. In the spirit of continuous improvement and with

a nod to the efficacy of Six Sigma, IOM’s resulting report,

Engineering a Learning System, stresses the need to “trans-

form the current healthcare system into one that learns

throughout the continuum of care” (Grossmann et al. 2011,

xviii). The report goes on to discuss the need for that learn-

ing system to adopt continuous improvement and quality

techniques to achieve that goal (Grossmann et al. 2011).

The healthcare industry is facing increasing pres-

sure not only to increase quality but also to reduce costs.

This chapter provides an introduction to quality manage-

ment tools and techniques that are being successfully used

by healthcare organizations. The major topics covered

include the following:

• Defining quality

• The costs of quality
(continued)

Healthcare Operat ions Management222

The results of the study helped
the team discover several poten-
tial sources causing infection
rates to rise.

Regions then imple-
mented several action items,
including standardization of
hand sanitization procedures,
consistent setup of equip-
ment, and enhanced use of
signage and visuals. The team
conducted a failure mode and
effects analysis to assess
potential sources of future C.
diff infections. Results related
to the decrease in C. diff infec-
tions showed a positive impact
on total number of cases, tests
ordered, and costs.

Defining Quality

Although most people agree that ensuring quality in healthcare is of the utmost
importance, many disagree on what the term quality means. The supplying
organization’s perspective includes performance (or design) quality and con-
formance quality. Performance quality includes the features and attributes
designed into the product or service. Conformance quality is concerned with
how well the product or service conforms to desired goals or specifications.

Garvin (1987) defines eight dimensions of product quality from the
customer’s perspective:

• Performance—operating characteristics
• Features—supplements to the basic characteristics of the product
• Reliability—the probability that the product will work over time
• Conformance—product adherence to established standards
• Durability—length of time that the product will continue to operate
• Serviceability—ease of repair
• Esthetics—beauty related to the look or feel of the product
• Perceived value—ideas of the product’s worth

OVE RVI EW (Continued)

• The Six Sigma quality program

• Six Sigma tools and techniques (note these are

different from Six Sigma programs), including

the define-measure-analyze-improve-control

(DMAIC) process, the seven basic quality tools,

statistical process control (SPC), and process

capability

• Other quality tools and techniques, including

quality function deployment (QFD), Taguchi

methods, and poka-yoke.

After completing this chapter, readers

should have a basic understanding of quality, quality

programs, and quality tools, enabling application of

the tools and techniques to begin improving quality

in their organizations.

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 223

Parasuraman, Zeithaml, and Berry (1988) define five dimensions of
service quality as follows:

• Tangibles—physical facilities, equipment, and appearance of personnel
• Reliability—ability to perform promised service dependably and

accurately
• Responsiveness—willingness to help customers and provide prompt

service
• Assurance—knowledge and courtesy of employees and their ability to

inspire trust and confidence
• Empathy—care and individualized attention

From the healthcare perspective, most agree that the elements of quality
relate to the patient. The 2001 IOM report Crossing the Quality Chasm outlines
six dimensions of quality in healthcare: safe, effective, patient centered, timely,
efficient, and equitable. In addition, the Quality Assurance Project (2003)
found nine dimensions of quality in healthcare: technical performance, access
to services, effectiveness of care, efficiency of service delivery, interpersonal
relations, continuity of services, safety, physical infrastructure and comfort,
and choice. Finally, the Triple Aim highlights patient care, population health,
and cost as the critical components of healthcare. Obviously, as in general
industry, quality and its various dimensions in healthcare may be viewed in
many ways. For each hospital or health system, quality is a vital dimension of
how it operates.

Cost of Quality

The costs of quality—or the costs of poor quality, according to Juran and De
Feo (2010)—are the costs associated with providing a poor-quality product
or service. Crosby (1979) notes that the cost of quality is “the expense of
nonconformance—the cost of doing things wrong.”

Quality improvement initiatives and projects cannot be justified sim-
ply because “everyone is doing it”; they must be considered on the basis of
financial or societal benefits. Goldstein and Iossifova (2011) demonstrated
that hospitals with significant financial resources were able to benefit greatly
from the use of quality management practices. Fineberg (2012) notes that the
potential annual excess cost from systemic waste in the US healthcare system is
more than $765 billion, including $210 billion in unnecessary services, $130
billion in inefficiently delivered services, $190 billion in excess administrative
costs, $105 billion in excessively high prices, $55 billion in missed opportunities

Cost of quality
The costs
associated with
producing poor-
quality goods
and services,
including tangible
costs, such as
scrap and rejects,
and intangible
costs, such as lost
customer goodwill.

Healthcare Operat ions Management224

for disease prevention, and $75 billion in fraud. In all, these costs amount to
approximately 30 percent of total health expenditures in the system. Problems
such as poor quality of care, overtreatment, and administrative waste may
account for as much as $1 trillion annually in costs that contribute nothing to
the improvement of the health of the population.

According to Juran and De Feo (2010), the cost of quality is usually
separated into four parts:

• External failure—costs associated with failure after the customer
receives the product or service (e.g., sentinel event, incorrect billing)

• Internal failure—costs associated with failure before the customer
receives the product or service (e.g., overtime for nurses because of
treatment errors, reinserting an intravenous line several times)

• Appraisal—costs associated with inspecting and evaluating the quality of
supplies or the final product or service (e.g., X-ray costs associated with
ensuring that no surgical equipment was left inside patients, hiring a person
to inspect supply cabinets to make sure the right equipment is in place)

• Prevention—costs incurred to eliminate or minimize appraisal and
failure costs (e.g., Six Sigma training costs, automated equipment for
laboratory testing)

Often, the costs associated with prevention are seen as expenses, whereas
the other, less apparent costs of appraisal and failure are hidden in the system
(Suver, Neumann, and Boles 1992). However, preventing quality problems is
usually less costly than fixing quality failures. Striving for continuous improve-
ment not only improves quality but also can enhance an organization’s financial
situation.

While some companies use the costs of quality as a mechanism to catego-
rize their overall quality costs, most apply the concept as a way of thinking about
quality in the system. Particularly in healthcare, where providers are taught to
save the patient at all costs—literally and figuratively—the actual costs related
to that mentality can be extreme. For example, suppose a hospital experiences
a sentinel event in which a scope was not cleaned prior to surgery. As a result
of the problems encountered, one physician starts to clean his own scopes to
make sure they are sterile prior to surgery. What are the costs associated with
that doctor cleaning his own scopes?

While it may seem that the doctor is doing the right thing by cleaning
the scope each time to ensure the quality of the surgery, he is considered an
expensive resource whose time spent on an activity is not cost-efficient. How
many surgeries does the hospital lose as a result of the doctor not being available?

Viewing the situation from another perspective, the doctor may not be
qualified to clean scopes; a lower-cost technician has the appropriate training

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 225

to perform this job. If no such technician is on staff because the hospital
administrator says the budget has no room to hire one to perform this task,
someone with higher-cost credentials must do it. These are all costs of poor
quality.

Changing the employees’ mind-set to see the cost of poor quality can
be a difficult undertaking, as staff are inclined to “do whatever it takes” to get
the job done. Such workarounds often lead to lowered overall system quality,
and changing the mind-set is essential if a continuous improvement program
is to survive in healthcare.

The Six Sigma Quality Program

This book focuses on the Six Sigma methodology because of its popularity
and demonstrated effectiveness, but other, equally valid programs for quality
management and continuous improvement are available as well. ISO 9000
certification and the Baldrige criteria are two such programs; review chapter
2 to see how the various quality methodologies compare.

Six Sigma was developed in the 1980s at Motorola as the organization’s
in-house quality improvement program. Since that time, the methodology has
become the defining quality strategy for many organizations. General Electric
adopted Six Sigma as a mechanism to gain strategic advantage through qual-
ity, and the company is widely recognized as having experienced the greatest
success with Six Sigma programs.

Critical to Six Sigma is its focus on strategy with an emphasis on elimi-
nating defects through removal of variance in business systems. Six Sigma has
been defined as a philosophy, a methodology, a set of tools, and a goal. The Six
Sigma philosophy transforms the culture of the organization. Its methodology
employs a project team–based approach to process improvement using the
define-measure-analyze-improve-control (DMAIC) cycle. As a set of tools, Six
Sigma is composed of quantitative and qualitative statistically based tools used
to provide management with facts to allow improvement of an organization’s
performance. Finally, Six Sigma as a mathematical term (6σ) signifies a goal of
no more than 3.4 defects per million opportunities (DPMOs).

Six Sigma programs can take many forms, depending on the organiza-
tion adopting them, but those that are successful share some common themes:

• Top management support for Six Sigma as a business strategy
• Extensive change management training to pave the way for a new way

of conducting business
• Team-based projects for improvement that directly affect the

organization’s strategic success and financial health

Healthcare Operat ions Management226

• Extensive training at all levels of the organization in the methodology
and use of tools and techniques

• Emphasis on the DMAIC approach and use of quantitative measures of
project success

Strategy and Measurement
The success of Six Sigma programs hinges on the organization’s ability to
use the program as a technique for achieving strategic goals. When properly
executed, Six Sigma drives a series of projects to help propel the organization’s
strategy forward. These projects are often internally focused, such as reducing
overall patient length of stay, lowering the cost of inventory, and increasing the
accuracy and quality of various procedures. Many of these initiatives originate
from the strategic dashboard and balanced scorecard discussed in chapter 4.
The balanced scorecard provides the measurement system used when selecting
Six Sigma projects and assigning resources.

Culture
Six Sigma, like all other successful change initiatives, requires and supports
cultural change in the organization. The culture of the organization can be
thought of as its personality, made up of the assumptions, values, norms, and
beliefs of the whole of the organization’s members. It is demonstrated by how
tasks are performed, how problems are solved, and how employees interact
with one another and the outside world.

Leaders and employees both shape and are shaped by the culture of the
organization. For any entity to achieve 6σ, or 3.4 DPMOs, the entire organiza-
tion must adopt a mind-set of continuous improvement. This mind-set is the
culture of the organization. Organizations that attempt to use the Six Sigma
program but do not embrace the culture necessary to achieve its goals struggle
in gaining long-term, sustainable results.

Leadership
To lead change in any organization, top executives must present a sense
of purpose for the organization. Truly supporting a major organizational
initiative is more than expressing vocal support for it. The organization’s
leaders must first provide human and financial resources to launch the pro-
gram and then to “hardwire,” or embed, the gains into the culture of the
organization made during the continuous improvement journey. Perhaps
the most critical endeavor of top leadership is to set targets for department
supervisors, such as the chief of surgery and the director of primary care,
and then hold those leaders accountable for achieving those targets. Without
a core set of metrics for the organization, any Six Sigma effort is limited in

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 227

its ability to achieve success because the metrics provide the baseline from
which comparison is made.

Organizational Infrastructure and Training
Successful Six Sigma initiatives require a high level of proficiency in the appli-
cation of the method’s qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques. To
achieve this level of excellence, Six Sigma initiatives involve an extensive amount
of training at all levels of the organization.

As shown in exhibit 9.1, the Six Sigma infrastructure is hierarchical. As
with any other pyramid, the base provides a broad foundation for the structure.
Without the involvement of all employees in the continuous improvement
efforts, the structure eventually collapses. Moving up the pyramid, the technical
and project management skills of the workers involved increase. As employees
receive more training and become more proficient, they are designated as yellow
belts, green belts, black belts, and master black belts. At the top of the pyramid
is the deployment champion.

Yellow Belts
Yellow belts are given training on basic quality management and problem-
solving techniques. Training on the fundamental problem-solving techniques
can last a half day or a full day. Yellow belts help collect, collate, and analyze
data related to projects that affect their workflow.

Deployment
champion

Master black belts

Black belts

Green belts

Yellow belts

All employees

EXHIBIT 9.1
Six Sigma
Infrastructure

Healthcare Operat ions Management228

Green Belts
Green belts organize projects and solve problems at the front lines of the
organization. In healthcare Six Sigma programs, the green belts help solve the
immediate problems when patients receive care. Most green belts spend between
10 and 25 percent of their time running projects, which usually accounts for
two to three projects per year. In highly functional Six Sigma systems, the
green belts are effective project managers and tend to be influential people
from various departments throughout the organization.

Green belts receive training covering quality management and control,
problem solving, data analysis, group facilitation, and project management.
To obtain certification, they typically must pass a written examination and
successfully complete and defend a Six Sigma project. Green belts continue to
perform their usual jobs in addition to Six Sigma projects. Many organizations
have a goal of training all their employees to the green-belt level.

Black Belts
If green belts are project managers, black belts are portfolio managers. The
black belt oversees large organizational projects that are usually composed of
many smaller green-belt projects. For example, a project to increase throughput
in an operating room might consist of several smaller projects involving room
turnover, staff scheduling, equipment location accuracy, and many other tasks.
An organization’s black belts should focus on achieving significant improve-
ment in measurements that the organization deems important.

Black belts have more Six Sigma project leadership experience than
green belts have. They also are trained in higher-level statistical methods, and
they mentor green belts. Black belts are dedicated full time to the Six Sigma
efforts of the organization. Their primary responsibility is to ensure that the
major projects selected for deployment are successful.

Master Black Belts
Master black belts are qualified to train and mentor green belts and black belts
and therefore are given extensive training in statistical methods as well as com-
munication and teaching skills. Master black belts are often seen as the oracles
of the Six Sigma program and treated as internal consultants who make sure
all of the project management systems are progressing smoothly.

Deployment Champion
At the top of the pyramid is the deployment champion, who is responsible
for the progress of the Six Sigma program and making sure it hits the targets
set in the strategic plan. The deployment champion serves a vital role as the
liaison between top management, key process owners, and the various black
and green belts in the organization. She coordinates all of the major initiatives,

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 229

allocates resources, and manages expectations for the major projects in the
organization.

The hierarchy framework serves several purposes:

• It provides the organization with in-house experts.
• It enables everyone in the organization to speak the same language, to

understand exactly what Six Sigma and Six Sigma projects are all about.
• It ensures that the organizational goals and objectives are met.
• Using black belts for a limited amount of time and then returning them

to their usual positions in the organization helps seed the organization
with Six Sigma disciples.

Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control
DMAIC is the acronym for the five phases of a Six Sigma project: define,
measure, analyze, improve, and control. The DMAIC framework, or improve-
ment cycle (exhibit 9.2), is used almost universally to guide Six Sigma process
improvement projects. DMAIC is based on the plan-do-check-act continuous
improvement cycle developed by Shewhart and Deming (see chapter 2) but
is much more specific.

Some observers have defined insanity as doing the same thing over
and over again and expecting different results. Six Sigma uses this definition
as a fundamental tenet of its philosophy. At its core, this definition assumes
that if we do the same things over and over again, the system in which we do
those things will produce the same results. The DMAIC process is designed

ANALYZE

MEASURE

DEFINE
CONTROL

IMPROVE

PLAN

CHECK

ACT

DO

EXHIBIT 9.2
DMAIC Process

Healthcare Operat ions Management230

to help develop consistently repeatable processes that deliver value to the end
customer—the patient in the healthcare system.

Define
In the definition phase, the Six Sigma team chooses a project that is aligned
with the strategic objectives of the business and the needs or requirements
of the customers of the process. The problem to be solved (or process to be
improved) is operationally defined in terms of measurable results. “Good” Six
Sigma projects typically have the following attributes:

• The project will save or make money for the organization.
• The desired process outcomes are measurable.
• The problem is important to the business, has a clear relationship

to organizational strategy, and is (or will be) supported by the
organization.

A benchmarking study of project selection found that most organiza-
tions (89 percent of respondents) prioritized Six Sigma projects on the basis
of financial savings (Evans and Lindsey 2015). The survey also found that the
existence of formal project selection processes, process documentation, and
rigorous requirements for project approval were all important to the success
of Six Sigma projects.

In the definition phase, internal and external customers of the process are
identified and their “critical to quality” characteristics (CTQs) are determined.
CTQs are the key measurable characteristics of a product or process for which
minimum performance standards desired by the customer can be determined.
Often, CTQs must be translated from a qualitative customer statement to a
quantitative specification. In this phase, the team also defines project boundar-
ies and maps the process (mapping is discussed in chapter 6).

Measure
In the measurement phase, team members must understand how well the pro-
cess they are analyzing meets the requirements set by the customer. To gain
this knowledge, the team determines the current capability and stability of the
process. Using the function Y = f(x) as a mechanism to understand how process
outputs (Y) are affected by certain activities or tasks (x), the team begins by
collecting data on the key process output variables. Once the key variables are
identified, reliable metrics are determined for them (exhibit 9.3). The inputs
to the process are identified and prioritized. Root-cause analysis (RCA) or
failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is sometimes used here to determine
the key process input variables. Valid, reliable metrics are determined for the

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 231

input variables as well. A data collection plan for the process is established and
implemented related to the input and output variables. The purpose of this
phase of the project is to establish the current state of the process to evaluate
the impact of any changes to it.

Analyze
In the analysis phase, the team studies the data that have been collected to
determine true root causes, or which of the many input variables can be best
used to eliminate variation or failure in the process and improve the outcomes.

Improve
In the improvement phase, the team identifies, evaluates, and implements the
improvement solutions. Possible solutions are identified and evaluated in terms
of their probability of successful implementation. A plan for deployment of
solutions is developed, and the solutions are put in place. Here, actual results
should be measured to quantify the impact of the project.

Critical to the improvement phase is ensuring that the tested and imple-
mented solutions address the problems identified in the project. People on Six
Sigma teams often arrive with preconceived notions on how to solve problems
and may manipulate the data results to justify their solution (Bednarz 2012).
For example, say a director wants to hire a new doctor. To justify his request,
he looks at the results and points to a lack of capacity in the system. However,
the constraint in the system may not be due to physician understaffing, and
the director’s solution, if implemented, would increase rather than reduce
spending and have no impact on system capacity.

In other words, the solutions that are put in place should address the issues
uncovered in the data analysis phase of the project. When team members push
solutions that do not resolve the issues uncovered by the data, inferior solutions
may reduce performance and increase costs. Over time, as inferior solutions
continue to be implemented, the organization abandons programs like Six Sigma
because of lack of positive results from the program. The implementation and
control phases of any project are the most difficult in which to achieve success.

CUSTOMERS

Key
process

input
variables

Key
process
output

variables

Critical
to

quality

INPUT OUTPUTPROCESS

EXHIBIT 9.3
Six Sigma
Process Metrics

Healthcare Operat ions Management232

Control
In the control phase, controls (discussed in chapter 6) are put in place to ensure
that process improvement gains are maintained and the process does not revert to
the “old way of doing things.” The improvements are institutionalized through
modification of structures and systems (training, incentives, monitoring). This
hardwiring of the change eventually becomes the new baseline for the system.

Seven Basic Quality Tools
The seven fundamental tools used in quality management and Six Sigma were
first popularized by Kauro Ishikawa (1985), who believed that up to 95 percent
of quality-related problems could be solved with the following seven funda-
mental tools (see exhibit 9.4):

• Fishbone diagram—tool for analyzing and illustrating the root causes of
an effect (chapter 6)

• Check sheet—simple form used to collect data in which hatch marks
are used to record frequency of occurrence for various categories;
frequently used to produce histograms and Pareto charts (chapter 6)

• Histogram—graph used to show frequency distributions (chapter 7)
• Pareto chart—sorted histogram, used to separate the vital few from the

trivial many, founded on the idea that 80 percent of quality problems
are due to 20 percent of causes (chapter 7)

• Flowchart—process map (chapter 6)
• Scatter plot—graphical technique to analyze the relationship between

two variables (chapter 7)
• Run chart—plot of a process characteristic, in chronological sequence,

used to examine trends; control charts, discussed in the next section,
are a type of run chart

Run chart

Scatter plot

Fishbone
diagram

Check sheet

Flowchart
Pareto chart

Histogram

EXHIBIT 9.4
Seven Quality

Tools

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 233

Statistical Process Control
SPC is a statistics-based methodology for determining when a process is mov-
ing out of control. All processes have variation in output, some of it caused
by factors that can be identified and managed, known as assignable or special
variation, and some of it inherent in the process, called common variation. SPC
aims to discover variation due to assignable causes so that adjustments can be
made and “bad” output is not produced.

In SPC, samples of process output are taken over time, measured, and
plotted on a control chart. From statistics theory, we know that the sample
means follow a normal distribution. From the central limit theorem, 99.7 per-
cent of sample means have a sample mean within a positive or negative three
standard errors (±3 SE) of the overall mean and 0.3 percent have a sample
mean outside those limits. If the process works as intended, only 3 times out
of 1,000 would a sample mean outside the ±3 SE limits be obtained. These
±3 SE limits (sx) are the control limits on a control chart.

If the sample means fall outside the control limits (or follow statistically
unusual patterns), the process is likely experiencing variation due to assignable
or special causes and is out of control. The special causes should be found and
corrected. After the process is fixed, the sample means should fall within the
control limits and the process should again be in control.

Some statistically unusual patterns that indicate a process is out of con-
trol are shown in exhibit 9.5. A more complete list can be found in Pyzdek
and Keller (2014).

Often, the sample mean (X , called X-bar) or X-bar chart is used in
conjunction with a range (r) chart. r-Charts follow many of the same rules
as X-bar charts and can be used as an additional check on the status of a
process. In addition, c-charts are used when the measured process output
is the count of discrete events (e.g., number of occurrences in a day), and
p-charts are used when the output is a proportion. Lim (2003) describes
more sophisticated types of control charts that can be used in healthcare
organizations.

A control chart may also be set up using individual values rather than
sample means. However, this step often is not taken for two reasons. First, the
individual values must be normally distributed. Second, data collection can be
expensive; typically, collecting samples of the data costs less than collecting all
of the data.

Riverview Clinic Statistical Process Control
The Riverview Clinic of Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System (VVH) is
undertaking a Six Sigma project to reduce its waiting times. In the measurement
phase of the project, data have been collected on waiting time and a control

Control limits
Common variation
limits that are
±3 standard
deviations from
the mean.

X-bar chart
Measures process
performance of
sample means for
continuous data.

Range (r) chart
Measures process
performance of
sample ranges for
continuous data.

Healthcare Operat ions Management234

Observation

Observation

Observation

Observation

8 or more samples above (or below) mean

14 or more samples oscillating

6 or more samples increasing (or decreasing)

UCL = 3

LCL = –3

X = 0

UCL = 3

LCL = –3

X = 0

UCL = 3

LCL = –3

X = 0

UCL = 3

LCL = –3

X = 0

One sample more than 3 standard errors from mean

Note: LCL = lower control limit; UCL = upper control limit.

EXHIBIT 9.5
Out-of-Control

Observation
Patterns

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 235

chart format selected to help management understand the current situation.
Six observations of waiting time are made over 20 days. At randomly chosen
times throughout each of the 20 days, the next patient to enter the clinic is
chosen. The time from when this patient enters the clinic until he exits is
recorded (exhibit 9.6).

Observations of Wait Times (minutes)

Observation

Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sample Mean Sample Range

1 29 29 22 31 29 31 28.50 9

2 24 29 40 26 36 30 30.83 16

3 28 33 25 26 28 33 28.83 8

4 26 31 38 30 23 28 29.33 15

5 36 29 24 29 26 32 29.33 12

6 26 27 32 25 30 29 28.17 7

7 22 33 30 31 37 34 31.17 15

8 40 29 26 29 32 30 31.00 14

9 32 32 21 34 28 29 29.33 13

10 34 26 35 27 31 26 29.83 9

11 35 30 29 30 31 27 30.33 8

12 31 39 32 32 30 31 32.50 9

13 36 24 30 29 31 26 29.33 12

14 25 23 29 31 25 23 26.00 8

15 38 43 37 35 38 32 37.17 11

16 35 29 30 25 28 30 29.50 10

17 26 29 20 33 30 28 27.67 13

18 22 29 26 30 36 28 28.50 14

19 33 33 34 37 28 30 32.50 9

20 26 26 34 34 25 36 30.17 11

Standard Deviation = 4.42 Overall Mean = 30.00

EXHIBIT 9.6
Riverview Clinic
Wait Times, in
Minutes

Healthcare Operat ions Management236

Riverview uses the standard deviation of all of the observations to esti-
mate the standard deviation of the population. The three-sigma control limits
for the X-bar chart are calculated as follows:

x −zα/2×σx ≤µ≤ x + zα/2×σx

x −zα/2×
s
n
≤µ≤ x + zα/2×

s
n

30−3×
4.4

6
≤µ≤30+3×

4.4
6

30−5.4≤µ≤30+5.4

24.6≤µ≤35.4.

Looking at the control chart (exhibit 9.7), it appears that day 15 was
out of control. An investigation found that on day 15 the clinic was short-
staffed because of a school holiday. The control chart cannot be used as is
because of the out-of-control point. Knowing that they may either continue
to collect data until all points are in control or recalculate the control chart
limits excluding day 15, Riverview leaders choose to recalculate, and the new
three-sigma limits are

x −zα/2×σx ≤µ≤ x + zα/2×σx

x −zα/2×
s
n
≤µ≤ x + zα/2×

s
n

30−3×
4.1

6
≤µ≤30+3×

4.1
6

30−5.0≤µ≤30+5.0

25.0≤µ≤35.0.

Unless the system is changed, 50 percent of Riverview patients will
experience a wait time longer than 30 minutes (50 percent will experience a
wait time of less than 30 minutes), and 10 percent of Riverview patients will
experience a wait time of greater than 35.3 minutes (90 percent will experience
a wait time of less than 35.3 minutes).

µ ≤ X + zα × σx

µ ≤ x + α × s; z0.9 = 1.3

µ ≤ 30 + (1.3 × 4.1)

µ ≤ 30 + 5.3

µ ≤ 35.3.

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 237

If Riverview’s goal for its Six Sigma project is to ensure that 90 percent
of patients experience a wait time of no more than 30 minutes, the clinic needs
to improve the system. The Six Sigma team’s aim would be to reduce mean wait
time to 24.7 minutes if the process variation remains the same (exhibit 9.8).

µ ≤ x + zα × σx

µ ≤ x + zα × s; z0.9 = 1.3

µ ≤ 30

µ ≤ 24.7 + 5.3; x = 24.7

15 20 25 30

Wait Time (minutes)

35 40 45

CURRENT WAIT TIME

50% of
patients

wait more
than 30
minutes

15 20 25 30

Wait Time (minutes)

35 40 45

WAIT TIME GOAL

10% of
patients

wait more
than 30
minutes

EXHIBIT 9.8
Riverview Clinic
Wait Time

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Day

M
ea

n
W

ai
t T

im
e

(m
in

ut
es

)

±1 ±2 ±3

Out-of-control
sample

EXHIBIT 9.7
Riverview Clinic
Wait Times:
X-Bar Control
Chart

Healthcare Operat ions Management238

Process Capability and Six Sigma Quality
Process capability measures how well a process can produce output that meets
desired standards or specifications. This critical measurement in Six Sigma sys-
tems determines how well the internal processes conform to customer require-
ments. Process capability is measured by comparing the natural (or common)
variability of an in-control process, the process width, to the specification
width. Specifications are determined by outside forces (such as customers or
management), but process variability is not determined—it is simply a natural
part of any process. A capable process is one that produces few defects, where
a defect is defined as an output outside specification limits.

The two common measures of process capability are Cp and Cpk. Cp is
used when the process is centered on the specification limits; the mean of the
process is the same as the mean of the specification limits. Cpk is used when
the process is not centered. A capable process shows a Cp or Cpk

greater than
1. At a Cp

of 1, the process produces about 3 defects per 1,000 attempts or
opportunities.

C C
s

C
x x

C
x

s
x

s

USL LSL
6

and is estimated by ˆ USL LSL
6

min
LSL

3
or

USL
3

and is estimated by ˆ min
LSL

3
or

USL
3

,

p p

pk

pk

σ

σ σ

=

=

=
− −

=
− −

where USL = upper specification limit and LSL = lower specification limit.
Recall that Six Sigma quality is defined as fewer than 3.4 DPMOs. This

definition can be somewhat confusing, as it corresponds to the 4.5σ one-tail
probability limit for the normal distribution. Six Sigma allows for a 1.5σ shift
in the mean of the process and Cpk

= 1.5 (exhibit 9.9).

Riverview Clinic Process Capability
Riverview Clinic management has decided that no patient should wait more
than 40 minutes, or a waiting time USL of 40 minutes. The Six Sigma team
wants to determine if the process is capable of achieving that wait time thresh-
old. Note that because no lower specification limit is specified (waiting time
less than some lower limit would not be considered a defect), Cpk

is the correct
measure of process capability.

Ĉ pk =
USL−x

3s


⎜⎜⎜



⎟⎟⎟=

40−30
3×4.1

=
10

12.3
= 0.81

Process capability
A measure of how
well a process can
produce output
that meets desired
standards or
specifications.

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 239

The Cpk is less than 1. Therefore, the process is not capable, and 7,000
DPMOs are expected [x ~ N(30, 16.8), P(x > 40) = 0.007].

The team determines that to ensure Six Sigma quality, the specification
limit needs to be 48.8 minutes:

= =

=

=

∴ =C
x

s
ˆ 1.5

USL
3

USL 30
12.3

48.8 30
12.3

USL 48.8.pk

If the Riverview Six Sigma team determines that Six Sigma quality with a
specification limit of 40 minutes is a reasonable goal, it may reduce average wait
time, reduce the variation in the process, or seek some combination of both.

C
x

s
x

x

s
s

ˆ USL
3

USL
12.3

40 21
12.3

21

1.5
40 30

3
10

3 2.2
2.2

pk

=

=

=


∴ =

=

=
×

∴ =

Average wait time must be reduced to 21 minutes, or the standard deviation
of the process reduced to 2.2 minutes, to reach the goal.

Rolled Throughput Yield
Rolled throughput yield (RTY) measures overall process performance. It is
the probability that a unit (of product or service) will pass through all process

Rolled throughput
yield (RTY)
The probability
that a unit (of
product or service)
will pass through
all process steps
free of defects.

–7 –6 –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1.5 Shift

Lower
Specification

Limit

Upper
Specification

Limit

3.4
DPMO

EXHIBIT 9.9
Six Sigma
Process
Capability
Limits

Healthcare Operat ions Management240

steps free of defects. For example, consider a process composed of four steps
or subprocesses. If each step has a 5 percent probability of producing an error
or defect (95 percent probability of an error-free outcome), the RTY of the
overall process is 81 percent—considerably lower than that in the individual
steps (exhibit 9.10).

Additional Quality Tools

In addition to the quality tools and techniques commonly associated with Six
Sigma, many other tools can be used in process improvement. Quality function
deployment (QFD) and Taguchi methods are often applied in the development
of new products or processes to ensure quality outcomes. However, they can
also be used to improve existing products and processes. Benchmarking helps
to determine best practices and to adapt them to the organization to achieve
superior performance. Mistake proofing, or poka-yoke, is used to minimize the
possibility of an error occurring. All of these tools are essential components of
an organization’s quality toolbox.

Quality Function Deployment
QFD is a structured process for identifying customer needs and wants and
translating them to a product or process that meets those needs. This tool is
most often used in the development phase of a new product or process, but
it can also be applied to redesign an existing product or process. Typically,
QFD is found in a design for Six Sigma (DFSS) project, where the goal is to
design the process to meet Six Sigma goals. The QFD process uses a matrix
called the house of quality (exhibit 9.11) to organize data in a usable fashion.

The first step in QFD is to determine customer requirements. Customer
requirements represent the VOC and are often stated in customer terms, not
technical terms. A particular product or service can have many customers, and
the voice of all must be heard.

Market research tools are used to capture the VOC. The many customer
needs discovered are organized into a few key customer requirements, which

Quality function
deployment (QFD)
A technique
that translates
customer
requirements to
specific product
or process
requirements.

Step 2 Step 3 Step 4
86 in,

81 error-
free

products
out

Step 1
100 in,

95 error-
free

products
out

95 in,
90 error-

free
products

out

90 in,
85 error-

free
products

out

EXHIBIT 9.10
Rolled

Throughput
Yield

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 241

are weighted on the basis of their relative importance to the customer. Typi-
cally, a scale of 1 to 5 is used, with 5 representing the most important. The
customer requirements and their related importance are listed on the left side
of the QFD diagram.

A competitive analysis of the identified customer needs is also per-
formed. The question here is how well competitors meet customer needs.
Typically, a scale of 1 to 5 is used here as well, with 5 indicating that the
competitor completely meets the particular need. The competitive analysis is
used to focus the development of the service or product on areas that pre sent
opportunities to gain competitive advantage and where the organization is at
a competitive disadvantage. This assessment can help the development team
focus on important strategic characteristics of the product or service. The
competitors’ scores on each customer requirement are listed on the right side
of the QFD diagram.

Technical requirements of the product or process that relate to customer
requirements are determined next. For example, if customers want speedy
service time, a related technical requirement might be that 90 percent of all
service times are less than 20 minutes. The technical requirements are listed
horizontally across the top of the QFD diagram, and the relationship between
the customer requirements and technical requirements is evaluated. Usually, the
relationships are evaluated as strong, medium, or weak, and symbols represent
these relationships in the relationship matrix. Numeric values are assigned to

Correlation
matrix

Technical
requirements

Customer
requirements

Competitive
analysis

Relationship
matrix

Specifications
or

target values

Im
po

rt
an

ce

Importance weight

EXHIBIT 9.11
House of
Quality
Correlation
Matrix

Healthcare Operat ions Management242

the relative weights (5 = strong, 3 = medium, 1 = weak), and these values are
placed in the matrix.

Positive and negative interactions among the technical requirements
are evaluated as strongly positive, positive, strongly negative, and negative.
Another set of symbols represents these relationships in the “roof,” or correla-
tion matrix, of the house of quality. This framework makes clear the trade-offs
involved in product and process design.

Customer importance weights are multiplied by relationship weights
and summed for each technical requirement to determine the overall impor-
tance weights. Target values are then developed from the house of quality that
emerges from the process.

Historically, QFD was a phased process. The above-described process
is the planning phase; for product development, planning is followed by the
construction of additional houses of quality related to parts, process, and pro-
duction. For service development and improvement, using only the first house
of quality, or the first house of quality followed by the process house, is often
sufficient. For examples of QFD applications in healthcare environments, see
Sarker and colleagues (2010), and for a complete review of QFD applications
in healthcare and other industries, see Sharma and Rawani (2010).

Riverview Clinic Quality Function Deployment
Many diabetes patients at Riverview Clinic do not return for routine preventive
exams. The team formed to address this problem has decided to use QFD to
improve the process and begins by soliciting the VOC via focus groups. The
team finds the following patient needs and wants:

• To know (or be reminded) that they need to schedule a preventive
exam

• To know why an office visit is needed
• A convenient means to schedule their appointments
• That their appointments be on time
• To know that their appointments will last a certain length of time

Next, patient rankings of the importance of these needs and wants are
determined via patient surveys.

A competitive analysis of Riverview Clinic’s two main competitors follows
to assess how they are meeting the determined needs and wants of Riverview’s
patients with diabetes. The team develops related technical requirements and
evaluates the interactions between them. The resulting house of quality is
shown in exhibit 9.12. On-time appointments emerge as the highest importance
ranking because they affect both appointment time and appointment length.

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 243

The team then evaluates various process changes and improvements related
to the determined technical requirements. To meet these technical requirements,
it decides to notify patients via postcard and to follow this method with e-mail
and phone notification if needed. The postcard and e-mail contain information
related to the need for an office visit and direct patients to the clinic’s website for
more information. Appointment scheduling is made available via the Internet as
well as by phone. Staffing levels and appointment times are adjusted to ensure
that appointments take place on time as scheduled and are approximately the
same length. Training is conducted to help physicians and nurses understand
the need to maintain appointment lengths, and tools are provide to them to
ensure consistent length.

Exhibit 9.13 outlines these process changes and related technical require-
ments. After the changes are implemented, the team checks to ensure that
the technical requirements determined by the house of quality are being met.

Taguchi Methods
Taguchi methods refer to two related ideas first introduced by Genichi Tagu-
chi (Barsalou 2013). Rather than deeming the quality of a product or service
as good or bad, whereby good falls within some specified tolerance limits and
bad falls outside those limits, quality is related to the distance from some target
value; further from the target is worse. Taguchi developed experimental design

Taguchi methods
Approaches
to quality
whereby product
development
focuses on
“perfect”
rather than on
conformance to
specifications.

Com
petitor B

Com
petitor A

O
ur service

O
n-tim

e
appointm

ent
90%

8 m
inutes

8 m
inutes

Yes

3

3 channels

A
ppointm

ent
length range

Tim
e to

schedule

Inform
ation

on need

Subsequent
notification

Initial
notification

3

3

3

3

3

4

3

3

5

5

2

2

3

3

3

29 27 20 15 15 25

5 3

3

4

3

4

3

5 5

Appointment time

5 Appointment length

5 Convenient

5 Why knowledge

3 Time knowledge

+ +

EXHIBIT 9.12
Riverview
Clinic House
of Quality for
Patients with
Diabetes

Healthcare Operat ions Management244

techniques in which the target value and the associated variation are important
factors. The optimal process design is not necessarily where the target value is
maximized but where variation is minimal in relation to the target. In other
words, the process is robust and performs well under less-than-ideal conditions.

Taguchi methods are often applied in DFSS where the product or ser-
vice is designed to be error free while meeting or exceeding the needs of the
customer. Rather than fixing an existing product or service, the design process
of the product or service ensures quality from the start.

Benchmarking
According to the American Productivity and Quality Center (2005), bench-
marking is “the process of identifying, understanding, and adapting outstand-
ing practices and processes from organizations anywhere in the world to help
your organization improve its performance.” Benchmarking focuses on how
to improve any given process by finding, studying, and implementing best
practices.

These best practices may be found in the organization, in competi-
tor organizations, and even in organizations outside the particular market or
industry. Best practices are everywhere—the challenge is to find them and
adapt them to the organization.

The benchmarking process consists of deciding what to benchmark,
determining how to measure it, gathering information and data, and then
implementing the best practice in the organization. Benchmarking can be
an important part of a quality improvement initiative, and many healthcare
organizations are involved in benchmarking (Olson et al. 2008). The journal
Healthcare Benchmarks and Quality Improvement provides information on
many of these initiatives.

Technical Requirement Process Change

Initial notification Postcard mailed

Subsequent notifications E-mail and/or phone call

Information on need Website

Time to schedule Website and phone

Appointment length range Staff levels adjusted

On-time appointment Staff training

Note: QFD = quality function deployment

EXHIBIT 9.13
Riverview

QFD Technical
Requirement
and Related

Process Change

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 245

Poka-Yoke
Poka-yoke (a Japanese phrase meaning to avoid inadvertent errors), or mis-
take proofing, is a way to prevent errors from occurring. A poka-yoke is a
mechanism that either prevents a mistake from being made or makes the mis-
take immediately obvious so that no adverse outcomes are experienced. For
example, all of the instruments required in a surgical procedure are placed on
an instrument tray with unique indentations for each instrument. After the
procedure is complete, the instruments are replaced in the tray. This process
provides a quick means to visually check that all instruments are removed from
the patient before closing the patient’s incision.

Another example of mistake proofing is locating the controls for a mam-
mography machine in such a way that the technician cannot start the machine
unless she is shielded from radiation by a wall that separates her from the
machine. In FMEA, identified fail points are good candidates for poka-yoke.

Technology can often enable poka-yoke. When patient data are put into
a system, the software is often programmed to provide an error message if the
data are incorrect. For example, a Social Security number is nine digits long;
no more than nine digits can be entered into the Social Security field, and an
error message appears if fewer than nine digits are entered. In the past, surgi-
cal sponges were counted before and after a procedure to ensure that none
were left in a patient. Now, the sponges can be radio frequency identification
tagged, eliminating the error-prone counting process, and a simple scan can
determine if any sponges remain in the patient.

Riverview Clinic Six Sigma Generic Drug Project

Riverview Clinic’s management team has determined that meeting pay-for-
performance goals related to prescribing generic drugs is a strategic objective
for the organization, and a project team has been organized to meet this
goal. Benchmarking is performed to help the team determine which pay-for-
performance measure to focus on and to define reasonable goals for the project.
The team has found that 10 percent of nongeneric prescription drugs could
be replaced with generic drugs, an approach taken by other clinics that have
successfully met this goal.

Define
In the definition phase, the team articulates the project goals, scope, and business
case. This activity includes developing the project charter, determining customer
requirements, and diagramming a process map. (The charter for a similar project
is found in chapter 5; it defines the project’s goals, scope, and business case.)

Poka-yoke
A mechanism that
prevents mistakes
or makes them
immediately
obvious to prevent
adverse outcomes.

Healthcare Operat ions Management246

The team identifies the health plans and patients as customers of the
process. The outputs of the process are identified as prescriptions and the effi-
cacy of those prescriptions. The process inputs are physician judgment and the
information technology (IT) system for drug lists. Additionally, pharmaceutical
firms provide input on drug efficacy. The process map developed by the team
is shown in exhibit 9.14.

Measure
The team decides to quantify the outcomes using the percentage of generic
(versus nongeneric) drugs prescribed and the percentage of prescription changes
following the prescribing of a generic drug. Additionally, the team tracks and
records data on all nongeneric drugs prescribed by each individual clinician
for one month.

Analyze
After one month, the team analyzes the data and finds that, overall, clinicians
prescribed 65 percent generic drugs (exhibit 9.15) and prescription changes
were needed for 3 percent of all prescriptions. A sample of the data collected
is shown in exhibit 9.16.

The team generates a Pareto analysis by clinician and drug to determine
if particular drugs or clinicians were more problematic than others. The analysis
shows that some drugs caused more problems leading to represcribing but that
all clinicians showed roughly the same outcomes (exhibit 9.17).

The team reexamines its stated goal of increasing generic drug prescrip-
tions by 4 percent in light of the data collected. If all prescriptions for the top

Information
on drugs

Clinician
prescribes

drug

Type of
drug

Drug doesn’t work

Generic Drug
efficacy

Drug
efficacy

Drug works

Drug works

End

End

Patient
needs drug

Nongeneric

Drug doesn’t work

EXHIBIT 9.14
Riverview Clinic

Prescription
Process

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 247

65%

15%

20%
Generic

Nongeneric, generic
available
Nongeneric, generic
not available

35%

EXHIBIT 9.15
Riverview
Generic Drug
Project: Drug
Type and
Availability

Date Clinician Drug Drug Type
Generic

Available Represcribe

1-Jan Smith F Nongeneric Yes No

1-Jan Davis G Generic Yes No

1-Jan Jones L Generic Yes No

1-Jan Anderson F Nongeneric No No

1-Jan Swanson R Generic Yes Yes

1-Jan Smith S Nongeneric Yes No

1-Jan Swanson U Generic Yes No

1-Jan Jones P Generic Yes No

1-Jan Jones S Nongeneric No No

1-Jan Swanson A Generic Yes No

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

31-Jan Anderson F Nongeneric Yes No

31-Jan Anderson E Nongeneric No No

31-Jan Davis T Generic Yes No

31-Jan Smith Y Generic Yes No

31-Jan Jones D Generic Yes No

31-Jan Swanson J Generic Yes No

31-Jan Swanson I Nongeneric Yes No

31-Jan Smith T Generic Yes No

31-Jan Davis G Generic Yes No

31-Jan Anderson H Generic Yes No

EXHIBIT 9.16
Riverview Clinic
Generic Drug
Project Sample
Data

Healthcare Operat ions Management248

four nongeneric drugs for which a generic drug is available could be changed
to generics, Riverview would increase generic prescriptions by 5 percent. There-
fore, management decides that the original goal is still reasonable.

Improve
The team conducts an RCA of the reasons for prescribing nongeneric drugs
and determines that the major cause was the clinicians’ lack of awareness of a
generic replacement for the prescribed drug. In addition to adapting the IT
system to identify approved generic drugs, the team publishes a monthly top
five list (on the basis of data from the previous month) of nongeneric drugs
for which an approved generic exists. The team continues to collect and ana-
lyze data after these changes are implemented and finds that prescriptions for
generic drugs have risen by 4.5 percent after six months.

Control
To measure progress and ensure continued compliance, the team sets up a
weekly control chart for generic prescriptions and continues to monitor and
publish the top five list. It conducts an end-of-project evaluation to document
the steps taken and results achieved and to ensure that learning from the project
is retained in the organization.

Clinician Prescriptions

0

5

10

15

20

Davis Jones Smith Swanson Anderson
C L I N I C I A N

N
on

ge
ne

ri
c

pr
es

cr
ip

ti
on

s
w

he
re

th
er

e
is

a
g

en
er

ic
av

ai
la

bl
e/

m
on

th

Nongeneric Prescriptions Where There is a Generic Available

0

5

10

15

20

O W J V B H M A C I G D K L T U N P Q R

D R U G

Pr
es

cr
ip

ti
on

s/
m

on
th

EXHIBIT 9.17
Riverview Clinic

Generic Drug
Project: Pareto

Diagrams

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 249

Tool or Technique Define Measure Analyze Improve Control

7 quality control tools

Cause-and-effect diagram x

Run chart x x

Check sheet

Histogram x x

Pareto chart x x x

Scatter plot x x

Flowchart x x

Other tools and techniques

Mind mapping/
brainstorming x x x

5 Whys/RCA x

FMEA x x

Pie chart x

Hypothesis testing x

Control chart x x x

Process capability x x x

QFD x x x

Benchmarking x x x x

Poka-yoke x

Gantt chart x

Project planning x x x

Charters x

Tree diagram x

Force field analysis x x

Balanced scorecard x x x x x

Note: FMEA = failure mode and effects analysis; QFD = quality function deployment; RCA = root-
cause analysis.

EXHIBIT 9.18
Quality Tools
and Techniques
Selector Chart

Healthcare Operat ions Management250

Conclusion

The Six Sigma DMAIC process is a framework for improvement. At any point in
the process, revisiting an earlier step in the process may be necessary to ensure
that improvement is achieved. For example, what the process improvement
team thought was the root cause of a problem of interest may be found not to
be the true root cause. Or when attempting to analyze the data, insufficient or
incorrect data may have been collected. In both cases, the team may need to
go back in the DMAIC process to ensure that a project is successful.

At each step in the DMAIC process, various tools can be used. The
choice of tool is related to the problem and possible solutions. Exhibit 9.18
outlines suggestions for when to choose a particular tool or technique. This
chart is only a guideline—you should use whatever tool is most appropriate
for the situation.

Discussion Questions

1. Read the executive summary of the IOM (1999) report To Err Is
Human (www.nap.edu/read/9728/chapter/2?term=executive+summa
ry) and answer the following questions:
a. Why did this report spur an interest in quality management in the

healthcare industry?
b. What does IOM recommend to address these problems?
c. Conduct a search and determine how much progress has been made

since 1999.
2. What does quality in healthcare mean to your organization? To you

personally?
3. Discuss a real example of each of the four costs of quality in a healthcare

organization.
4. List at least three poka-yokes currently used in the healthcare industry.

Can you think of a new one for your organization?

Exercises

1. Clinicians at VVH have been complaining about the turnaround time
for blood work. The laboratory manager decides to investigate the
problem and collects turnaround time data on five randomly selected
requests every day for one month (shown in the chart on the next
page).

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 251

a. Construct an X-bar chart using the standard deviation of the
observations to estimate the population standard deviation.
Construct an X-bar chart and r-chart
using the range to calculate the control
limits. (The Excel template on the
book’s companion website performs this
calculation for you.)

b. Is the process in control? Explain.
c. If the clinicians feel that any time over 100 minutes is unacceptable,

what are the Cp
and Cpk of this process?

d. What are the next steps for the laboratory manager?
2. Riverview Clinic has started a customer satisfaction program. In

addition to other questions, each patient is asked if she is satisfied with
her overall experience at the clinic. Patients can respond “yes” if they
were satisfied or “no” if they were not satisfied. Typically, 200 patients
are seen at the clinic each day. The data collected for two months are
shown on the next page.

Observation Observation

Day 1 2 3 4 5 Day 1 2 3 4 5

1 44 41 80 51 25 16 14 44 35 52 76

2 28 32 58 42 18 17 52 84 55 63 15

3 54 83 59 50 46 18 28 20 67 76 69

4 57 53 63 15 52 19 25 23 35 21 23

5 30 50 62 68 42 20 46 74 24 10 47

6 42 40 50 49 73 21 33 54 62 14 72

7 26 17 50 47 91 22 64 55 62 14 72

8 54 39 39 82 28 23 53 49 72 49 61

9 46 62 53 64 57 24 15 16 18 35 78

10 49 71 34 42 43 25 64 9 51 47 70

11 53 64 12 35 43 26 36 21 51 40 57

12 75 43 43 50 64 27 24 58 19 88 16

13 74 19 52 55 59 28 75 66 34 27 71

14 91 40 66 15 73 29 60 42 20 59 60

15 59 32 59 49 71 30 52 28 85 39 67

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Healthcare Operat ions Management252

Day

Proportion
of patients
who were

unsatisfied Day

Proportion
of patients
who were

unsatisfied Day

Proportion
of patients
who were

unsatisfied

1 0.17 15 0.15 28 0.18

2 0.13 16 0.14 29 0.19

3 0.15 17 0.13 30 0.14

4 0.22 18 0.15 31 0.19

5 0.16 19 0.15 32 0.10

6 0.13 20 0.22 33 0.17

7 0.17 21 0.19 34 0.15

8 0.17 22 0.15 35 0.17

9 0.11 23 0.12 36 0.15

10 0.16 24 0.16 37 0.15

11 0.15 25 0.18 38 0.15

12 0.17 26 0.14 39 0.14

13 0.17 27 0.17 40 0.19

14 0.12

a. Construct a p-chart using the collected data.
b. Is the process in control?
c. On average, how many patients are satisfied with Riverview Clinic’s

service? If Riverview wants 90 percent (on average) of patients to be
satisfied, what should the clinic do next?

3. Think of a problem in your organization that Six Sigma could help
solve. Map the process and determine the key process input variables,
the key process output variables, the CTQs, and exactly how you can
measure them.

4. Use QFD to develop a house of quality for the VVH emergency
department (you may need to guess the numbers
you do not know). The Excel template labeled
QFD.xls, available on the companion website, may
be helpful in completing this problem.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 9: Qual i ty Management—Focus on Six Sigma 253

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CHAPTER

255

THE LEAN ENTERPRISE

Operations Management in
Action

Park Nicollet (PN), a healthcare system in Minne-
sota, has been using Lean tools to help improve
the flow of its processes since 2003. In 2009, PN
used Lean tools integrated with clinician guidance
to design a new care model to manage patients
taking prescribed anticoagulants.

Anticoagulants, such as warfarin, can be
dangerous medications. Warfarin is often pre-
scribed to cardiac patients to prevent blood clots
and is also used to treat or prevent venous throm-
bosis and pulmonary embolism. However, the drug
can cause bleeding that may be life threatening.
As a result, most hospitals have specialized units
that deal with the dangers of warfarin.

PN used the Lean tools to help allevi-
ate issues with administering anticoagulants to
patients. The primary metric that PN focused on
was international normalized ratio (INR) time in
desired range. The INR is a measurement estab-
lished by the World Health Organization (WHO) for
reporting the results of blood coagulation tests.
PN’s tests saw results in the desired range just 38
percent of the time.

To improve its anticoagulant delivery sys-
tem, PN standardized several policies related to
the administration of warfarin. First, it established
centralized dosing models in which only certain
individuals—in PN’s case, nurse clinicians—had the
authority to administer the medications. The cen-
tralized dosing models greatly improved PN’s ability
to track the amount of warfarin given to patients.

10
OVE RVI EW

Lean tools and techniques have been employed extensively

in manufacturing organizations since the 1990s to improve

the efficiency and effectiveness of those organizations’

activities. Since that time, many healthcare organizations

realized the transformative potential of Lean to improve

patient safety and financial performance (Dobrzykowski,

McFadden, and Vonderembse 2016).

The healthcare industry faces increasing pressure

to use resources in an effective manner to reduce costs

and increase patient satisfaction. This chapter provides

an introduction to the Lean philosophy as well as the vari-

ous Lean tools and techniques used by many healthcare

organizations today. The major topics covered include the

following:

• The Lean philosophy

• Defining waste

• Kaizen

• Value stream mapping

• Other Lean tools, techniques, and ideas, including

the five Ss, spaghetti diagrams, kaizen events, takt

time, kanbans, rapid changeover, heijunka, jidoka,

andon, standardized work, and pull

• The Lean–Six Sigma merge

After completing this chapter, readers should have

a basic understanding of Lean tools, techniques, and phi-

losophy. This background should help them recognize how

Lean may be used in their organizations and enable them

to employ its tools and techniques to facilitate continuous

improvement.

Healthcare Operat ions Management256

Next, PN decentralized management of each patient to his or her local clinic.
This step ensures that each patient receives personalized care and attention because
the drugs are ordered by the patient’s primary doctor.

Specific Lean tools used in the improvement process include visual man-
agement and standardization for orders, poka-yoke to limit errors, standardized
work protocols for the triage of phone calls, and kaizen (introduced in chapter 4) to
improve practices in the system. In addition, a consistent formal education program
was deployed to help reduce these types of issues in the future.

These improvements helped PN increase the INR percentage to an in-range
standing of higher than 70 percent. The average cost to administer the medication
per patient per year decreased from a baseline measure of $1,300 to an average
$442 per patient per year. Finally, the hospital admission rate of patients using
warfarin decreased from 15.9 percent to 11.2 percent.

Source: Trajano, Mattson, and Sanford (2011).

What Is Lean?

As described in chapter 2, Lean production was developed by Taiichi Ohno,
Toyota’s chief of production after World War II. The Toyota Production System
(TPS) was studied by researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and
documented in the book The Machine That Changed the World (Womack, Jones,
and Roos 1990). The Lean system originated from just-in-time production
and became widely adopted in many manufacturing operations. Lean spread
quickly to healthcare organizations because the removal of waste in the system
has been shown to improve the clinical measure of safety (Caldwell, Brexler,
and Gillem 2005; Chalice 2005; Spear 2005).

Whereas Six Sigma, total quality management, and continuous quality
improvement create customer value by eliminating defects, Lean creates seam-
less flow to the customer by eliminating waste. Although Six Sigma and Lean
are different programs, their methodologies, tools, and outcomes are similar.
Both have Japanese roots, as evidenced by the terminology associated with
them, and they use many of the same tools and techniques.

TPS, or the Lean Production House (exhibit 10.1), is built on a foun-
dation of stability and standardization. The pillars of the house represent the
systems that create value for the customer (the roof of the house). The left
side of the structure represents producing what you need just in time for the
customer. To execute this model correctly, the system must remove waste. The
right side of the structure represents automation, or designing the system to
stop when defects are produced and remove them. The middle section is the
human factor that links the two systems. The ultimate goal is to produce as
much value for the customer as possible.

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 257

A Lean organization is focused on eliminating all types of waste. Like Six
Sigma, Lean has been defined as a philosophy, methodology, and set of tools. The
Lean philosophy is to produce only what is needed, when it is needed, and with no
waste. The Lean methodology begins by examining the system or process to deter-
mine where value is added and where it is not; steps in the process that do not add
value are eliminated, and those that do add value are optimized. Lean tools include
value stream mapping, the five Ss, spaghetti diagrams, kaizen events, kanbans, rapid
changeover (originating with the single-minute exchange of die), heijunka, jidoka,
and standardized work, all of which are explored in more detail later.

Types of Waste

In Lean, waste is called muda, which comes from the Japanese term for waste.
Many types of waste are found in organizations. As an engineer at Toyota after

Lean
• Flow
• Heijunka
• Takt time
• Pull system
• Kanban
• Visual order

(5S)
• Robust

process
• Involvement

Jidoka
• Poka-yoke
• Visual order

(5S)
• Problem

solving
• Abnormality

control
• Separate

human and
machine work

• Involvement

Standardized work,
5S, jidoka

TPM, heijunka,
kanban

Stability

Involvement
• Standardized

work
• 5S
• TPM
• Kaizen circles
• Suggestions
• Safety activities

Goal
Customer Focus

• Takt, heijunka
• Involvement, Lean design, A3 thinking

Standardized work,
kanban, A3 thinking Visual order (5S)Standardization

EXHIBIT 10.1
Lean Production
House

Source: Adapted from Pascal (2007).

Note: 5S = the five Ss of workplace practice; TPM = Toyota’s production method, Toyota Production
System.

Healthcare Operat ions Management258

World War II, Ohno created TPS to eliminate waste and inefficiencies in the
company’s production system (Economist 2009). Since that time, these wastes
have been categorized and reinterpreted as follows for services and healthcare:

• Overproduction—producing more than is demanded or producing
before the product is needed to meet demand. Printing reports
and preparing meals when they are not needed are examples of
overproduction in healthcare.

• Waiting—time during which value is not being added to the product or
service. Waiting in healthcare can refer to either the patient sitting idle
in a waiting room or the provider waiting for a patient to arrive. When
waiting occurs, the resources in the system are not productive or adding
value to the end customer in the system.

• Transportation—unnecessary travel of the primary product in the
system. In healthcare, transport is so common that the word describes
an entire department, whose staff are typically called to move patients
in clinics and hospitals to different areas of the facility. Other forms
of transportation include bringing equipment and supplies to various
locations.

• Inventory—holding or purchasing raw materials, work in process (WIP),
and finished goods that are not immediately needed. In healthcare,
wasted inventory includes supplies and pharmaceuticals. Too much
inventory costs money and limits the organization’s ability to be
profitable. In addition, the probability of having outdated drugs on-site
increases, creating a greater risk to patients.

• Motion—actions of providers or operators that do not add value to the
product (including repetitive motion that causes injury). In healthcare,
wasted motion includes unnecessary travel of the service provider to
obtain supplies or information.

• Overprocessing—unnecessary processing, or steps and procedures
that do not add value to the product or service. Numerous examples
of overprocessing in healthcare relate to record keeping and
documentation. Many computerized provider order entry systems also
require overprocessing to work smoothly.

• Defects—production of a part or service that is scrapped or requires
rework. In healthcare, defect waste ranges from mundane errors, such
as misfiling documents, to serious errors resulting in the death of a
patient. The Joint Commission (2016) classifies catastrophic defects
that lead to death or serious injury due to mistakes as sentinel events.

Effective Lean systems focus on eliminating all waste through continuous
improvement.

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 259

Kaizen

Kaizen is the Japanese term for “change for the better,” or continuous
improvement. Kaizen has become the vehicle by which Lean systems adjust
and improve. The philosophy of kaizen involves all employees making sug-
gestions for improvement and then implementing those suggestions quickly.
Because Lean systems target removing waste, opportunity to improve should
occur immediately and perpetually.

Kaizen is based on the assumptions that everything can be improved
and that many small incremental changes result in an improved system. Absent
kaizen, organizations generally operate under the maxim, “If it isn’t broken,
leave it alone.” Those that have adopted a kaizen philosophy believe, “Even if
it isn’t broken, it can be improved.” An organization that does not focus on
continuous improvement is unable to compete with those that continuously
improve.

Kaizen can be both a general philosophy of improvement centering on
the entire system or value stream and a specific improvement technique for a
particular process. The kaizen philosophy of continuous improvement consists
of five basic steps:

1. Specify value. Identify activities that provide value from the customer’s
perspective.

2. Map and improve the value stream. Determine the sequence of activities
or current state of the process and the desired future state. Eliminate
non-value-added steps and other waste.

3. Facilitate flow. Enable the process to progress as smoothly and quickly
as possible.

4. Allow for pull. Enable the customer to derive products or services.
5. Enable perfection. Repeat the process to ensure a focus on continuous

improvement.

The kaizen philosophy is supported by the various tools and techniques of Lean.

Value Stream Mapping

A value stream map is a big-picture view of how a system transforms supplies
into finished goods for the customer. Effective value stream maps include all
of the steps in the process—both the value-adding and the non-value-adding
steps—and their related measurements in producing and delivering a product
or service. Both information processing and transformational processing steps
are included in a value stream map.

Kaizen
Continuous
improvement
based on the
beliefs that
everything can
be improved and
that incremental
changes result
in an enhanced
system.

Value stream map
An overview of
how a system
transforms
supplies into
finished goods for
the customer.

Healthcare Operat ions Management260

The value stream map shows process flow from a systems perspective and
can help in determining how to measure and improve the system or process of
interest. Value stream mapping enables the organization to focus on the entire
value stream rather than just a specific step or piece of the stream. Without a
view of the entire stream, individual parts of the system tend to be optimized
according to the needs of those parts, and the resulting system is suboptimal.
This short-sightedness occurs frequently in healthcare organizations that are
separated by departments. One department, such as lab or X-ray, may make a
decision that helps its own processes but has an adverse impact on other areas
of the organization, such as the operating rooms or emergency department.

Value stream mapping in healthcare is typically performed from the
perspective of the patient, where the goal is to optimize her journey through
the system. Information, material, and patient flows are captured in the value
stream map. Each step in the process is classified as value-added or non-value-
added. Value-added activities are those that change the item being worked on
in some way that the customer desires. Using the value stream methodology,
value is classified in terms of the following questions:

• Does the patient care about the activity?
• Does the activity transform the end product in some way?
• Is the activity performed correctly the first time?

If all three questions cannot be answered in the affirmative, the activity is con-
sidered non-value-added and should be removed from the system.

Non-value-added activities can be further classified as necessary or unnec-
essary. An example of a necessary non-value-added activity that organizations
must perform is payroll. Payroll activities do not add value for customers, but
employees must be paid. Activities that are classified as non-value-added and
unnecessary should be eliminated. Activities that are necessary but non-value-
added should be examined to determine if they can be made unnecessary and
eliminated. Value-added and necessary non-value-added activities are candidates
for improvement and waste reduction. The value stream map enables organiza-
tions to see all of the activities in a value stream and focus their improvement
efforts (Rother and Shook 1999).

A common measurement for the progress of Lean initiatives is percent
value added. The total time for the process to be completed is also measured.
These metrics can be captured by measuring the time a single item, customer,
or patient spends to complete the entire process. At each step in the process,
the value-added time is measured using the following ratio:

% Value added = × 100.
Value-added time

Total time in system

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 261

The goal of Lean is to increase percent value added by increasing this
ratio. Many processes have a percent value added of 5 percent or less. Best-in-
class value-added time is often 20 percent or less.

Value streams help organizations focus on flow and not on waiting.
Value streams with low value-added percentages are often full of wait times.
Traditional healthcare processes involving several departments having less than
1 percent total value-added time are not uncommon.

Once the value stream map is generated, kaizen activities can be identi-
fied that allow the organization to increase the percent-value-added time and
employ resources in the most effective manner possible.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Value Stream Mapping
Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System (VVH) has identified its birthing
center as an area in need of improvement and is using Lean tools and techniques
to accomplish its objectives. The goals for the Lean initiative are to decrease
costs and increase patient satisfaction. Project management tools (chapter 5)
are used to ensure success.

VVH has formed a team to improve the operations of the birthing
center. The team consists of the manager of the birthing unit (the project
manager), two physicians, three nurses (one from triage, one from labor and
delivery, and one from postpartum), and the manager of admissions. All team
members have been trained in Lean tools and techniques. They begin the
project by developing a high-level value stream map over the course of several
weeks (exhibit 10.2). In it, the team maps patient and information flows in the
birthing center, and it collects data related to staffing type and level as well as
length of time for the various process steps. The high-level value stream map
helps the team decide where to focus its efforts; it then develops a plan for the
coming year on the basis of the opportunities identified.

Additional Measures and Tools
Takt Time
Takt is a German word meaning rhythm or beat. It is often associated with the
rhythm set by a conductor to ensure that the orchestra plays in unison. Takt
time determines the speed with which customers must be served to satisfy
demand for the service. The calculation is as follows:

Takt time =

.

Takt time
The speed with
which customers
must be served to
satisfy demand for
the service.Available work time/Day

Customer demand/Day

Healthcare Operat ions Management262

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Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 263

Cycle time is the time needed for a system to accomplish a task in that
system. Cycle time for a system is equal to the longest task-cycle time in that
system. Cycle time is often referred to as the “drip rate” of the system, as with a
leaky faucet: The cycle time is the rate at which water drips from the faucet. In
a perfect Lean system, cycle time and takt time are equal. If cycle time is greater
than takt time, demand is not satisfied and customers or patients are required
to wait. If cycle time is less than takt time in a manufacturing environment,
inventory is generated; in a service environment, resources are underutilized.
In a Lean system, the rate at which a product or service can be produced is set
by customer demand, not by the organization’s ability (or inability) to supply
the product or service.

Throughput Time
Throughput time is the time needed for an item to complete the entire pro-
cess. It includes waiting time and transport time as well as actual processing
time. In a healthcare clinic, for example, throughput time is the total time the
patient spends at the clinic, starting when he walks through the door and end-
ing when he walks out. It includes not only the time the patient is interacting
with a clinician but also time spent idle in the waiting and examining rooms.
In a perfectly Lean system, no waiting time is experienced, and throughput
time is thus minimized. In most instances, throughput time is dictated by the
non-value-added activities and not by the provider–patient interaction.

Riverview Clinic Timing Issues
VVH’s Riverview Clinic has collected the data shown in exhibit 10.3 for a
typical patient visit. Here, the physician exam and consultation involves the
longest task time, 20 minutes; therefore, the cycle time for this process is 20
minutes. Assuming that the physician is available to work with the patients and
not performing other tasks, every physician should be able to “output” one
patient from this process every 20 minutes. However, the throughput time is
equal to the total amount of time a patient spends in the system:

3 + 15 + 2 + 15 + 5 + 10 + 20 = 70 minutes.

The available work time per physician day is 5 hours (Riverview Clinic
physicians work 10 hours per day, but only 50 percent of that time is spent
with patients), the clinic has 8 physicians, and 100 patients are expected at
the clinic every day:

Takt time = = 0.4 physician hours/patient

= 24 physician minutes/patient.

Cycle time
The time required
to accomplish a
task in a system.

Throughput time
The time required
for an item to
complete the
entire process,
including waiting
time and transport
time.

8 physicians × 5 hours/day

100 patients/day

Healthcare Operat ions Management264

Therefore, to meet demand, the clinic needs to serve one patient every 24
minutes. Because cycle time (20 minutes) is less than takt time (24 minutes),
the clinic can meet demand.

Assuming that (1) patient check-in is necessary but non-value-added
and (2) both the nurse preliminary exam (5 minutes) and the physician exam
and consultation (20 minutes) are value-added tasks, the value-added time
for this process is

5 + 20 = 25 minutes

and the percent-value-added time is

25 minutes ÷ 70 minutes = 36%.

This example assumes that all of the steps of the check-in process are
value-added. The reality is that many of the steps we perform in any given activ-
ity in a process are non-value-added. A Lean system works toward decreasing
throughput time and increasing percent-value-added time. The tools discussed
in the following sections can aid in achieving these goals as building blocks to
the overall Lean system.

Five Ss
The five Ss are workplace practices that constitute the foundation of other
Lean activities; the Japanese words for these practices all begin with S. The
five Ss essentially are ways to ensure a clean and organized workplace. Often,

Patient
check-in

3 minutes

Move to
examining

room
2 minutes

Wait
15

minutes

Wait
15

minutes

Nurse does
preliminary

exam
5 minutes

Wait
10

minutes

Physician
exam and

consultation
20 minutes

Visit
complete

Note: Created with Microsoft Visio.

EXHIBIT 10.3
Riverview

Clinic Cycle,
Throughput,

and Takt Times

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 265

they are seen as obvious and self-evident—a clean and organized workplace is
more efficient than a cluttered area is. However, without a continuing focus
on these five practices, workplaces often become disorganized and inefficient.

The five practices, with their Japanese names and the English terms
typically used to describe them, are as follows:

• Seiri (sort)—Separate necessary from unnecessary items, including
tools, parts, materials, and paperwork, and remove the unnecessary
items.

• Seiton (set in order)—Arrange the necessary items neatly, providing
visual cues to where items should be placed.

• Seiso (shine)—Clean the work area.
• Seiketsu (standardize)—Standardize the first three Ss so that cleanliness

is maintained.
• Shitsuke (sustain)—Ensure that the first four Ss continue to be

performed on a regular basis.

Many hospitals and healthcare organizations have adopted a sixth S
in the system, safety, considered paramount in the design of the sustainable
process (EPA 2011).

Adopting the five (or six) Ss is often the first step an organization takes in
its Lean journey because so much waste can be eliminated by establishing and
maintaining an organized and efficient workplace. An effective five S program
requires that the organization build discipline to continue the efforts in the
long term. If an organization cannot sustain a simple mechanism to keep an
area clean and organized, it will struggle with more complex systems. Five S
systems can be easy to build but are difficult to maintain. Exhibit 10.4 displays
a form for scheduling regular audits to make sure the system is sustainable.

Spaghetti Diagram
A spaghetti diagram is a visual representation of the movement or travel of
materials, employees, or customers. In healthcare, a spaghetti diagram is often
used to document or investigate the movements of caregivers or patients.
Typically, the patient or caregiver spends a significant amount of time moving
from place to place and often backtracks. A spaghetti diagram (exhibit 10.5)
helps find and eliminate wasted movement in the system.

Kaizen Event or Blitz
A kaizen event or blitz (sometimes referred to as a rapid process improvement
workshop) is a focused, short-term project aimed at improving a particular
process. A kaizen event is usually performed by a cross-functional team of eight
to ten people, always including at least one person who works with or in the

Spaghetti diagram
A visual
representation of
the movement or
travel of materials,
employees, or
customers.

Kaizen event
A focused, short-
term project aimed
at improving a
particular process.

Healthcare Operat ions Management266

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Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 267

process. The rest of the team should include personnel from other functional
areas and even nonemployees with an interest in improving the process. In
healthcare organizations, staff, nurses, doctors, and other professionals, as well
as management personnel from across departments, should be represented.

Typically, a kaizen event consists of the following steps, based on the
plan-do-check-act improvement cycle of Deming and Juran (see chapter 2):

1. Determine and define the objective(s).
2. Determine the current state of the process by mapping and measuring

the process. Measurements are related to the desired objectives and may
include such factors as cycle time, waiting time, WIP, throughput time,
and travel distance.

3. Determine the requirements of the process (takt time), develop target
goals, and design the future state or ideal state of the process.

4. Create a plan for implementation, including who, what, when, and so on.
5. Implement the improvements.
6. Check the effectiveness of the improvements.
7. Document and standardize the improved process.
8. Report the results of the event on an A3 reporting form (discussed below).
9. Continue the cycle.

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EXHIBIT 10.5
Spaghetti Map
for Setting Up
Education Room

Healthcare Operat ions Management268

The kaizen event is based on the notion that most processes can be
quickly (and relatively inexpensively) improved, in which case it makes sense to
“just do it” rather than be paralyzed by resistance to change. A kaizen event is
typically one week long and begins with training in the tools of Lean, followed
by analysis and measurement of the current process and generation of possible
ideas for improvement. By midweek, a proposal for changes to improve the
process should be completed. The proposal includes the improved process flow
and metrics for determining the impacts of the changes. The proposed changes
are implemented and tested during the remainder of the week. At the end of
the week, a team reports the results on an A3 reporting form.

The A3 is a summary of the project results presented on a one-page,
standard letter size A3 sheet of paper. By the following week, the new process
should be in place.

A kaizen event can be a powerful way to quickly and inexpensively
improve processes. The results are usually a significantly enhanced process and
increased employee pride and satisfaction.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Kaizen Event
The value stream map developed for the VVH birthing center highlights the
fact that nursing staff spend a significant amount of time on activities not
related to actual patient care. This situation has resulted not only in dissatis-
fied patients, physicians, and nurses but also in increased staffing costs to the
hospital. A kaizen blitz is planned to address this problem in the postpartum
area of the birthing center.

The nursing administrator is charged with leading the kaizen event. She
forms a team consisting of a physician, a housekeeper, two nurses’ assistants,
and two nurses. On Monday morning, the team begins the kaizen event with
four hours of Lean training. That afternoon, team members develop a spaghetti
diagram for a typical nurse and begin collecting data related to the amount of
time nursing staff spend on various activities. They also collect historical data
on patient load and staffing levels.

On Tuesday morning, the team continues to collect data. In the after-
noon, its members analyze the data and note that nursing staff spend only 50
percent of their time in actual patient care. A significant amount of time—one
hour per eight-hour shift—is spent locating equipment, supplies, and informa-
tion. The team decides that a 50 percent reduction in this time measure is a
reasonable goal for the kaizen event.

On Wednesday morning, the team performs a root-cause analysis to
determine the reasons nursing staff spend so much time locating and moving
equipment and supplies. They find that one of the major causes is general
disorder in the supply and equipment room and in patient rooms.

On Wednesday afternoon, the team organizes the supply and equipment
room. Team members begin by determining what supplies and equipment are

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 269

necessary to performing their work and removing those that are unnecessary.
Next, they organize the supply and equipment room by identifying which
items are needed most frequently and locating those items together. All storage
areas are labeled, and specific locations for equipment are designated visually.
White boards are installed to enable the tracking and location of equipment.
The team also develops and posts a map of the room so that the location of
equipment and supplies can be easily viewed.

On Thursday, the team works on reorganizing all of the patient rooms,
standardizing the layout and location of items in each one. First, team members
observe the activity taking place in one of the patient rooms and determine
the equipment and supply needs of physicians and nurses. All nonessential
items are removed, creating more space. Additionally, rooms are stocked with
supplies used on a routine basis to reduce trips to the central supply room. A
procedure is also established to restock supplies daily.

On Friday morning, the kaizen team again collects data on the amount
of time nursing staff spend on various activities. It finds that after implement-
ing the changes, the time nursing staff spent locating and moving supplies and
equipment has been reduced to approximately 20 minutes in an eight-hour
shift, a 66 percent reduction. Friday afternoon is spent documenting the kai-
zen event and putting systems in place to ensure that the new procedures and
organizational approach are maintained.

Standardized Work
Standardized work is an essential part of Lean that provides the baseline for
continuous improvement. Standardized work refers to the methods by which a
process is executed. All effective standardized work procedures include written
documentation of the precise way every step in a process should be performed.
It should not be seen as a rigid system of compliance, but rather as a means
of communicating and codifying current best practices in the organization.
Standardized work is critical to developing an effective Lean system as it rep-
resents the baseline against which all future improvements will be measured.

All relevant stakeholders of the process should be involved in establishing
standardized work. Standardizing work in this way assumes that the people most
intimately involved with the process have the most knowledge of how to best
perform the work. Such involvement can promote employee buy-in, owner-
ship of the process, and responsibility for improvement. Clear documentation
and specific work instructions ensure that variation and waste are minimized.

Standardized work should be seen as a step on the road to improvement.
It allows doctors and nurses to perform activities at their licensure level more
often than in nonstandard work because basic business processes run effectively
using standardized work (Lowe et al. 2012). This allowance to work at top of
license then leads to standardized measures that lead to cost-effectiveness and
improvement of patient outcomes.

Standardized work
Documentation of
the precise way in
which every step in
a process should
be completed.

Healthcare Operat ions Management270

In the healthcare industry, examples of standardized work include treat-
ment protocols and the establishment of care paths. (Care paths are also
examples of evidence-based medicine, which is explored in chapter 3.) A care
path is “an optimal sequencing and timing of interventions by physicians,
nurses, and other staff for a particular diagnosis or procedure, designed to
minimize delays and resource utilization and at the same time maximize the
quality of care” (Wheelwright and Weber 2004). Care paths define and docu-
ment specifically what should happen to a patient the day before surgery, the
day after surgery, and on following postsurgical days.

As part of an overall program to improve practices and reduce costs,
Massachusetts General Hospital developed and implemented a care path for
coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. The care path was not intended
to dictate medical treatment but to standardize procedures as much as possible
to reduce variability and improve the quality of outcomes (Wheelwright and
Weber 2004).

The team that developed the care path was composed of 25 participants
representing the various areas involved in treatment. It spent more than a
year developing the initial care path. Because of its breadth of inclusion and
applicability, resistance to implementation was minimal. The care path resulted
in an average length of stay reduction of 1.5 days, and significant cost savings
were associated with that reduction. After the successful implementation of
the CABG surgical care path, Massachusetts General established more than
50 additional care paths related to surgical procedures and medical treatments
(Wheelwright and Weber 2004).

Standardized work processes can be used in clinical, support, and admin-
istrative operations of healthcare organizations. The development and docu-
mentation of standardized processes and procedures can be a powerful way to
engage and involve everyone in the organization in continuous improvement.

Jidoka and Andon
In Lean systems, jidoka refers to the ability to stop the process in the event
of a problem. The term stems from the weaving loom invented by Sakichi
Toyoda, founder of the Toyota Group. The loom stopped itself if a thread
broke, eliminating the possibility that defective cloth would be produced.

Jidoka prevents defects from being passed from one step in the system to
the next and enables the swift detection and correction of errors. If the system
or process is stopped when a problem is found, everyone in the process works
quickly to identify and eliminate the source of the error.

In ancient Japan, an andon was a paper lantern used as a signal; in a
Lean system, an andon is a visual or audible signaling device used to indicate a
problem in the process. Andons are typically used in conjunction with jidoka.

In his book The Checklist Manifesto, Atul Gawande (2009) highlights
the benefits that hospitals gain by using simple checklists prior to inducing a

Care path
A sequence of
best practices
for healthcare
staff to follow
for a diagnosis
or procedure,
designed to
minimize waste
and maximize
quality of care.

Jidoka
The ability to
prevent defects by
stopping a process
when an error
occurs.

Andon
A visual or audible
signaling device
used to indicate
a problem in
the process,
typically used in
conjunction with
jidoka.

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 271

patient into an anesthetized state for surgery. These checklists are a mechanism
to make sure everyone in the surgical suite is in agreement on the details of
the patient and procedure about to take place, and they give the surgical team
a chance to “stop the line” if protocol has not been properly followed.

Virginia Mason Medical Center implemented a jidoka-andon system
called the Patient Safety Alert System (Womack et al. 2005). If a caregiver
believes something is not right in the care process, not only can she stop the
process but she is obligated to do so. The person who has noticed the problem
alerts the patient safety department. The appropriate process stakeholders or
relevant managers move immediately to determine and correct the root cause
of the problem. After two years, the number of alerts per month rose from 3
to 17, enabling Virginia Mason to correct most problems in the process before
they became more serious. The alerts are primarily related to systems issues,
medication errors, and problems with equipment or facilities.

Kanban
Kanban is a Japanese term for signal. A kanban uses containers of a certain
size to signal the need for more production or the movement of product. The
customer indicates that he wants a product, a kanban is released to the last
operation in the system to signal the customer demand, and that station begins
to produce the product in response. As incoming material is consumed at the
last workstation, another kanban is emptied and sent to the previous worksta-
tion to signal that production should begin at that station. The empty kanbans
go backward through the production system to signal the need to produce
in response to customer demand (see exhibit 10.6). This system ensures that
production is only undertaken in response to customer demand, not simply
because production capacity exists.

In a healthcare environment, kanbans can be used for supplies or phar-
maceuticals to signal the need to order more. For example, a pharmacy would

Kanban
A visual signal
that triggers
the movement
of inventory
or product in a
system.

Empty
Kanban

Empty
Kanban

Full
Kanban

Full
Kanban

Customer Order
Task 2

Workstation 2
Task 1

Workstation 1

Note: Created with Microsoft Visio.

EXHIBIT 10.6
Kanban System

Healthcare Operat ions Management272

have two kanbans; when the first kanban is emptied, this signals the need to
order more of the drug and an order is placed. The second kanban is emptied
while waiting for the order to arrive. Ideally, the first kanban is received from
the supplier at the point that the second kanban is empty and the cycle con-
tinues. The size of the kanbans is related to demand for the pharmaceutical
during lead time for the order. The number and size of the kanbans determine
the amount of inventory in the system.

In a healthcare environment, kanbans can be used to control the flow
of patients, ensuring continuous movement. For example, for patients needing
both an echocardiography (echo) procedure and a computed tomography (CT)
scan, where the echo procedure is to be performed before the CT scan, the CT
scan could pull patients through the process. When a CT is performed, a patient
is taken from the pool of patients between CT and echo. A kanban (signal) is
sent to the echo station to indicate that another patient should receive an echo
(see exhibit 10.7). This method keeps a constant pool of patients between the
two processes. The patient pool should be large enough to ensure that the CT
is busy even when disturbances in the echo process occur. However, its size
must be balanced with the need to keep patients from waiting for long periods.
Eventually, in a Lean system, the pool size is reduced to one.

Rapid Changeover
The rapid changeover, or single-minute exchange of die (SMED) system,
was developed by Shigeo Shingo (1985) of Toyota. Originally, it was used by
manufacturing organizations to reduce changeover or setup time—the time
between producing the last good part of one product and the first good part

PatientsPatients CTEcho

langiSlangiS

EXHIBIT 10.7
Kanban for

Echo/CT Scan

Note: Created with Microsoft Visio. CT = computed tomography; echo = echocardiogram.

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 273

of a different product. Currently, the technique is used to reduce setup time
for both manufacturing and services. In healthcare, the SMED system trans-
lates better as rapid changeover. In healthcare environments, setup is the time
needed, or taken, between the completion of one procedure and the start of the
next or between the checkout of one patient and the arrival of a new patient.

The rapid changeover technique consists of three steps:

1. Separating internal activities from external activities
2. Converting internal setup activities to external activities
3. Streamlining all setup activities

Internal activities are those that must be performed in the system; they
cannot be done offline. For example, cleaning an operating room (OR) prior
to the next surgery is an internal setup activity; it cannot be completed outside
the OR. However, organizing the surgical instruments for the next surgery is
an external setup, as it can be completed outside the OR to allow for speedier
changeover of the OR.

Setup includes finding and organizing instruments, gathering supplies,
cleaning rooms, and obtaining paperwork. In the healthcare environment, rapid
changeover can help alleviate surgery suite backlogs and cancelations because
the room can be turned over quickly and the surgery teams can maximize the
amount of time they are in surgery (AHRQ 2007).

To streamline activities, Lean teams must look for opportunities to per-
form tasks in parallel and find ways to automate the process. For example, many
manufacturers have facilitated the turnover of surgery rooms by manufacturing
disposable sleeves that cover all of the lights and fixtures in the room. Instead
of having to scrub all of those fixtures, a team simply replaces the sleeves.

Heijunka and Advanced Access
Heijunka is a Japanese term meaning to make flat and level. It refers to
eliminating variations in volume and variety of production to reduce waste.
In healthcare environments, making flat and level often means determining
how to level out patient demand. Producing goods or services at a steady rate
allows organizations to be increasingly responsive to customers and make
optimal use of their own resources. In healthcare, advanced access provides a
good example of the benefits of heijunka.

Advanced-access scheduling reduces the time between scheduling an
appointment for care and the actual appointment. It is based on the principles
of Lean and aims for swift, even patient flow through the system. Heijunka
helps reduce the wait time for appointments, decrease patient no-show rates,
and improve both patient and staff satisfaction. As a result, clinics increase their
revenue and reduce administrative costs because fewer patients are rescheduled.

Heijunka
The process
of eliminating
variations in
volume and variety
of production to
reduce waste.

Healthcare Operat ions Management274

Although the benefits of advanced access are valuable, implementation
can be difficult because the concept challenges established practices and beliefs.
However, if the delay between making an appointment and the actual appoint-
ment is relatively constant, implementing advanced access should be feasible.

Centra Health, a multisite primary care organization, was able to reduce
access time to three days or less. As a result, patient satisfaction increased from
72 percent to 85 percent, and continuity of care was significantly increased, such
that 75 percent of visits occurred with a patient’s primary physician, compared
to 40 percent prior to advanced access. The most significant issue encountered
was the greater demand for popular clinicians than for others and the need to
address this inequity on an ongoing basis (Murray et al. 2003).

Successful implementation of advanced access requires that supply and
demand be balanced. Accurate estimates of both supply and demand are needed,
backlog must be reduced or eliminated, and the variety of appointment types
needs to be minimized. Once supply and demand are known, demand profiles
may need to be adjusted and the availability of bottleneck resources increased
(Murray and Berwick 2003). The Institute for Healthcare Improvement (2006)
offers extensive online resources to aid healthcare organizations in implement-
ing advanced access, and chapter 12 discusses the concept in more detail.

The Merging of Lean and Six Sigma Programs

Many organizations now combine the philosophies and tools of Lean and Six
Sigma into Lean Six Sigma (George 2002). Although proponents of Lean or
Six Sigma might tout their differences and champion one over the other, the
two methods are complementary, and combining them can be an effective
approach to improvement.

Exhibit 10.8 provides a classic illustration of how the two continuous
improvement programs may be used together. Here, the water represents waste in
the system. The high water (waste) buffers the rocks so the boat can move down-
stream without encountering any issues. In healthcare systems, this waste often
shows up in one of two forms: excess supplies and inventory or too much demand
on the system. This buffering might seem helpful, because once the water is
removed, the rocks become exposed, making travel dangerous. But the rocks
represent major issues in our systems, such as sentinel events and excessive overtime
paid to nurses and other staff. To sail the boat without crashing (encountering
issues), the rocks (problems) must be eliminated (by removing variance in the
system). Perhaps too much overtime is being paid to the staff in the surgical
suite of a hospital. Analysis finds that staff are spending excess time looking for
equipment, which delays surgeries and forces the overtime. To get the boat to sail
smoothly, the problems of looking for equipment must be reduced and removed.

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 275

The Lean system focuses on eliminating waste and streamlining flow. In
the previous example, the waste in the system was identified as excessive idle
time as a result of waiting for the equipment, which may lead to hiring extra
people to make sure the equipment reaches the OR suite on time. The Six
Sigma program focuses on creating value to the customer, eliminating defects,
and reducing variation. It identifies the reasons that equipment arrives late
to the OR and systematically reduces and removes those sources of variance.
Both Lean and Six Sigma are ultimately focused on continuous improvement
of any system.

Excess hides problems

Reducing excess makes
problem visible

Reduce problems/
remove variation

EXHIBIT 10.8
Lean Six Sigma
Approach

Healthcare Operat ions Management276

The Six Sigma process, featuring the define-measure-analyze-improve-
control structure, always begins with defining the issues or problems as they
relate to the customer. The focus on reducing variance in the eyes of the cus-
tomer allows Six Sigma programs to create customer value.

The kaizen philosophy of Lean begins with determining what customers
value, followed by mapping and improving the process to achieve flow and pull.
Lean thinking enables identification of the areas causing inefficiencies. How-
ever, to truly achieve Lean, variation in the processes must be eliminated—Six
Sigma helps achieve its elimination. Focusing on the customer and eliminating
waste not only results in increased customer satisfaction but also reduces costs
and increases the profitability of the organization.

Together, Lean and Six Sigma can provide the philosophies and tools
needed to ensure that the organization is continuously improving. Research
supports the idea that the implementation of continuous improvement is a
gradual addition of skill sets and not the selection of a specific system like Lean
or Six Sigma (Belohlav et al. 2010).

Conclusion

Lean systems have been used in many industries to remove inefficiencies and
waste related to production of goods and services. Healthcare systems have also
adopted Lean to enhance safety and improve the quality of care. The removal of
outdated medicines, expired supplies, and clutter makes the environment safer
for patients. These simple concepts related to waste reduction work well for
most healthcare systems. Lean will continue to be a focal point in healthcare as
the pressure mounts to reduce cost. The waste reduction approaches will allow
the US healthcare system to be increasingly cost-effective and safe for patients.

Discussion Questions

1. What are the drivers of the healthcare industry’s focus on patient
satisfaction and on employing resources in an effective manner?

2. What are the differences between Lean and Six Sigma? The similarities?
Would you like to see both applied in your organization? Why or why not?

3. From your own experiences, discuss a specific example of each of the
seven types of waste.

4. From your own experiences, describe a specific instance in which
standardized work, kanban, jidoka and andon, and rapid changeover
would enable an organization to improve its effectiveness or efficiency.

Chapter 10: The Lean Enterpr ise 277

5. Does your primary care clinic have advanced-access scheduling? Should
it? To determine supply and demand and track progress, what measures
would you recommend to your clinic?

6. Are any drawbacks inherent to Lean Six Sigma? Explain.

Exercises

1. A simple value stream map for patients requiring a colonoscopy at an
endoscopy clinic is shown in the graphic below. Assume that patients
recover in the same room where the colonoscopy is performed and
the clinic has two colonoscopy rooms. What is the cycle time for the
process? What is the throughput time? What is the percent value added
in this process? If the clinic operates 10 hours a day and demand is 12
patients per day, what is the takt time? If demand is 20 patients per day,
what is the takt time? What would you do in the second situation?

20 Min

5 Min 15 Min

15 Min 0 Min

40 Min

10 Min

5 Min30 Min

Discharge
Patient

recovery
Colonoscopy

Patient
prep

Patient
check-inColonoscopy

patients

No./
day

ValueDemand

Note: Created with eVSM software from GumshoeKI, Inc., a Microsoft Visio add-on.

2. Draw a high-level value stream map for your organization (or a
part of your organization). Pick a part of this map and draw a more
detailed value stream map for it. On each map, be sure to identify the
information you would need to complete the map and exactly how you
might obtain that information. What are the takt and throughput times
of your process? Identify at least three kaizen opportunities on your
map.

3. For one of the kaizen opportunities listed in exercise 2, describe the
kaizen event you would plan if you were the kaizen leader.

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Womack, J. P., D. T. Jones, and D. Roos. 1990. The Machine That Changed the World:
Based on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology 5-Million Dollar 5-Year Study on
the Future of the Automobile. New York: Rawson Associates.

PART

IV
APPLICATIONS TO CONTEMPORARY
HEALTHCARE OPERATIONS ISSUES

CHAPTER

281

PROCESS IMPROVEMENT AND
PATIENT FLOW

Operations Management in Action

Cambridge Health Alliance Whidden Hospital in Ever-
ett, Massachusetts, is a safety net hospital whose
emergency department (ED) was experiencing long
waits, inefficient processes, and poor patient satisfac-
tion. Its leaders undertook two projects to improve
patient flow: an ED facility expansion, and, two years
later, a reorganization of patient flow and the estab-
lishment of a rapid assessment unit (RAU).

In the period following the ED expansion, sig-
nificant negative trends were observed: decreasing
Press Ganey patient satisfaction percentiles (–4.1
percentile per quarter), increasing door-to-provider
time (+4.9 minutes per quarter), increasing duration
of stay (+13.2 minutes per quarter), and increasing
percentage of patients leaving without being seen
(+0.11 per quarter).

After the RAU was established, significant
immediate impacts were observed for door-to-
provider time (–25.8 minutes) and total duration of
stay (–66.8 minutes). The trends for these indicators
further suggested the improvements continued to
be significant over time. Furthermore, the negative
trends for the Press Ganey outcomes observed after
ED expansion were significantly reversed and contin-
ued to move in the positive direction after the RAU.
The major conclusion from the project team was that
the impact of process improvement and RAU imple-
mentation is far greater than the impact of renovation
and facility expansion.

Source: Sayah et al. (2016).

11
OVE RVI EW

At the core of all organizations are their operating sys-

tems. Excellent organizations continuously measure,

study, and make improvements to these systems. This

chapter provides a methodology for measuring and

improving systems using a select set of the tools pre-

sented in the preceding chapters.

The terminology associated with process

improvement can be confusing. Typically, tasks com-

bine to form subprocesses, subprocesses combine

to form processes, and processes combine to form

a system. The boundaries of a particular system are

defined by the activity of interest. For example, the

boundaries of a supply chain system are more encom-

passing than those of a hospital system that is part of

that supply chain.

The term process improvement refers to

improvement at any of these levels, from the task level

to the systems level. This chapter focuses on process

and systems improvement.

Process improvement follows the classic plan-

do-check-act (PDCA) cycle (chapter 9), with the follow-

ing, more specific, key steps:

• Plan: Define the entire process to be improved

using process mapping. Collect and analyze

appropriate data for each element of the process.

• Do: Use a process improvement tool(s) to

improve the process.

• Check: Measure the results of the process

improvement.

(continued)

Healthcare Operat ions Management282

Problem Types

Continuous process improve-
ment is essential for organiza-
tions to meet the challenges
of today’s healthcare environ-
ment. The theory of swift and
even flow (TSEF) (Schmenner
2001, 2004; Schmenner and
Swink 1998) asserts that a pro-
cess is more productive as the
stream of materials (custom-
ers or information) flows more
swiftly and evenly. Productiv-
ity rises as the speed of flow
through the process increases
and the variability associated
with that process decreases.

Note that these phenomena are not independent. Often, decreasing
system variability increases flow, and increasing flow decreases variability. For
example, advanced-access (same day) scheduling increases flow by decreas-
ing the elapsed time between when a patient schedules an appointment and
when she has completed her visit with the provider. Applying this concept of
interdependence to patient no-shows, advanced-access scheduling can decrease
variability by decreasing the number of no-shows.

Solutions to many of the problems facing healthcare organizations can
be found in increasing flow or decreasing variability. For example, a key oper-
ating challenge in most healthcare environments is the efficient movement of
patients in a hospital or clinic, commonly called patient flow. Various approaches
to process improvement can be illustrated using the patient flow problem.
Optimizing patient flow through EDs has become a top priority of many
hospitals; therefore, the Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System (VVH)
example at the end of this chapter focuses on improving patient flow through
that organization’s ED.

Another key issue facing healthcare organizations is the need to increase
the level of quality and eliminate errors in systems and processes. In other words,
variation must be decreased. Finally, increasing cost pressures result in the need
for healthcare organizations to improve processes and do so while reducing costs.

The tools and techniques presented in this book are aimed at enabling
cost-effective process improvement. Although this chapter focuses on patient
flow and elimination of errors related to patient outcomes, the discussion is
equally applicable to other types of flow problems (e.g., information, paperwork)

OVE RVI EW (Continued)

• Act to hold the gains: If the process improvement

results are satisfactory, hold the gains (chapter 15).

If the results are not satisfactory, repeat the PDCA cycle.

This chapter discusses the types of problems

or issues faced by healthcare organizations, reviews

many of the operations tools discussed in earlier chap-

ters, and illustrates how these tools can be applied to

process improvement. The relevant tools include the

following:

• Basic process improvement tools

• Six Sigma and Lean tools

• Simulation software

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 283

and other types of errors (e.g., billing). Some tools are more applicable to
increasing flow and others to decreasing variation, eliminating errors, or improv-
ing quality, but all of the tools can be used for process improvement.

Patient Flow

Efficient patient movement in healthcare facilities can significantly improve the
quality of care patients receive and substantially improve financial performance.
A patient receiving timely diagnosis and treatment has a higher likelihood of
obtaining a desired clinical outcome than a patient whose diagnosis and treat-
ment are delayed. Because most current payment systems are based on fixed
payments per episode of treatment, a patient moving more quickly through a
system tends to generate lower costs and, therefore, higher margins.

Patient flow optimization opportunities occur in many healthcare set-
tings. Examples include operating suites, imaging departments, urgent care
centers, and immunization clinics. Advanced-access scheduling is a special case
of patient flow and is examined in depth in chapter 12.

Poor patient flow has several causes; one culprit discovered by many
investigators is variability of scheduled demand. For example, if an operating
room is scheduled for a surgery but the procedure does not take place at the
scheduled time, or it takes longer than scheduled to complete, the rest of the
surgery schedule becomes delayed. These delays ripple through the entire
hospital, including the ED.

As explained by Eugene Litvak, PhD (2003):

You have two patient flows competing for hospital beds—ICU or patient floor beds.

The first flow is scheduled admissions. Most of them are surgical. The second flow

is medical, usually patients through the emergency department. So when you have a

peak in elective surgical demand, all of a sudden your resources are being consumed

by those patients. You don’t have enough beds to accommodate medical demand.

If scheduled surgical demand varies unpredictably, the likelihood of
inpatient overcrowding, ED backlogs, and ambulance diversions increases
dramatically.

A number of management solutions have been introduced to improve
patient flow. Separating low-acuity patients into a unique treatment stream can
reduce the time these patients spend in the ED and improve overall patient
satisfaction (Rodi, Grau, and Orsini 2006). Other tools and methods that
have been employed to improve flow once a patient is admitted to the hospital
relate to the discharge process. These approaches include creating a uniform
discharge time (e.g., 11:00 a.m.), writing discharge orders the night before

Healthcare Operat ions Management284

release, communicating discharge plans early in the patient’s care, centralizing
oversight of census and patient movement, changing physician rounding times,
alerting ancillary departments when their testing procedures are critical to a
patient’s discharge, and improving discharge coordination with social services
(Clark 2005).

Investments in health information technology (IT) can improve patient
flow as well. Devaraj, Ow, and Kohli (2013) studied 576 US hospitals to
investigate the relationship between IT and investments in smooth and even
flow. Using risk-adjusted length of stay (LOS) as their measure of smooth and
even flow, they found that IT investments were positively related to smooth
and even flow (shorter LOS) at the .05 level of significance.

They provide an example of how this result occurs (Devaraj, Ow, and
Kohli 2013, page 190):

When the patient record is complete, the discharge IT system prompts the attending

physician to access the patient record from the cloud. After reviewing the record, the

attending physician can digitally sign the record and issue orders to discharge the

patient. Because the entire patient record resides in the cloud, the attending physician

can complete the entire process through a mobile device and discharge the patient

from anywhere. If a hospital automated the current process that requires attending

physicians to physically come to the hospital, often the next day, in order to review

and sign discharge orders, the LOS may not be significantly reduced. Therefore, it is

important for hospital managers to understand such complementarities (e.g., TSEF)

to ensure that IT is appropriately placed in the patient care “system.”

For patient flow to be carefully managed and improved, the formal
methods of process improvement outlined in the next section need to be
widely employed.

Process Improvement Approaches

Process improvement projects can use a variety of approaches and tools. Typi-
cally, they begin with process mapping and measurement. Some simple tools
can be initially applied to identify opportunities for improvements. Identifying
and eliminating or alleviating bottlenecks in a system (theory of constraints)
can quickly improve overall system performance. In addition, the Six Sigma
tools described in chapter 9 can be used to reduce variability in process output,
and the Lean tools discussed in chapter 10 can identify and eliminate waste.
Finally, simulation (discussed later in this chapter) is a powerful tool that enables
understanding and optimization of flow in a system.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 285

All major process improvement projects should use the formal project
management methodology outlined in chapter 5. An important first step is to
identify a system’s owner: For a system to be managed effectively over time,
it must have a designated individual who monitors the system as it operates,
collects performance data, and leads teams to improve the system.

Many systems in healthcare do not have an owner and, therefore, operate
inefficiently. For example, a patient may enter an ED, be assessed by the triage
nurse, move to the admitting department, take a chair in the waiting area, be
moved to an exam room, be seen by a floor nurse, have his blood drawn, and
finally be examined by a physician. From the patient’s point of view, this is one
system, but these various hospital departments may be operating autonomously.
System ownership problems can be remedied by multidepartment teams with
one individual designated as the overall system or process owner.

Problem Definition and Process Mapping
Once the process owner is identified, the first step in improving a system is
generally considered to be problem description and mapping of that pro-
cess. However, the team should first ensure that the correct problem is being
addressed. Mind mapping or root-cause analysis should be employed to ensure
that the problem is identified and framed correctly; much time and money can
be wasted finding an optimal solution to a process that is not problematic.

For example, suppose a project team is given the task of improving cus-
tomer satisfaction with the ED. The team assumes that customer satisfaction
is low because of high throughput time. It proceeds to optimize patient flow
in the ED. Patient satisfaction does not improve.

Now, imagine that a second project team is assigned to improve customer
satisfaction. It conducts an analysis of customer satisfaction, which reveals that
customers are dissatisfied because of a lack of parking. The team solves the problem
by following a different path than the first team because it has clearly understood
and defined the issue, allowing team members to determine what process to map.

Processes can be described in a number of ways. The most common is
the written procedure or protocol, typically constructed in the “directions”
style. This type of process is sufficient for simple procedures—for example,
“Turn right at Elm Street, go two blocks, and turn left at Vine Avenue.” Clearly
written procedures are an important part of defining standardized work, as
described in chapter 10.

However, when processes are linked to form systems, they become com-
plex. These linked processes benefit from process mapping because process maps

• provide a visual representation that allows process improvement
through inspection,

Healthcare Operat ions Management286

• enable branching in a process,
• provide the ability to assign and measure the resources in each task in a

process, and
• are the basis for modeling the process via computer simulation software.

Chapter 6 provides an introduction to process mapping. To review, the
steps in process mapping are as follows:

1. Assemble and train the team.
2. Determine the boundaries of the process (where it starts and ends) and

the level of detail desired.
3. Brainstorm the major process tasks, and list them in order. (Sticky notes

are often helpful here.)
4. Generate an initial process map (also called a flowchart).
5. Draw the formal flowchart using standard symbols for process

mapping.
6. Check the formal flowchart for accuracy by all relevant personnel.
7. Depending on the purpose of the flowchart, collect data needed or

include additional information.

Process Mapping Example
A basic process map illustrating patient flow in VVH’s emergency department
is displayed in exhibit 11.1.

Here, the patient arrives at the ED and is examined by the triage nurse.
If the patient is very ill (high complexity level), she is immediately sent to the
intensive care section of the ED. If not, she is sent to admitting and then to
the routine care section of the ED.

The simple process map shown in exhibit 11.1 ends with the routine
care step. In actuality, other processes now begin, such as admission into an
inpatient bed or discharge from the ED to home with a scheduled clinical
follow-up. The VVH emergency department process improvement project is
detailed at the end of this chapter.

Process Measurements
Once a process map is developed, relevant data are collected and analyzed.
The situation at hand dictates which specific data and measures should be
employed. Important measures and data for possible collection and analysis
include the following:

• Capacity of a process is the maximum possible amount of output (goods
or services) that a process or resource can produce or transform.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 287

Capacity measures can be based on outputs or on the availability of
inputs. The capacity of a series of tasks is determined by the lowest-
capacity task in the series.

• Capacity utilization is the proportion of capacity actually being used. It
is measured as actual output divided by maximum possible output.

• Throughput time is the average time a unit spends in the process.
Throughput time includes both processing time and waiting time and is
determined by the critical (longest) path through the process.

• Throughput rate, sometimes referred to as drip rate, is the average
number of units that can be processed per unit of time.

Triage–
financial

EndDischargeWaitingWaiting

Waiting

Patient
arrives

at the ED

Intensive
ED care

Admitting
Medicaid

Triage–
clinical

Complexity

Admitting
private

insurance

Exam/
treatment

Nurse
history/

complaint

Private
insurance

Low

High

No

Yes

Waiting

EXHIBIT 11.1
VVH Emergency
Department
(ED) Patient
Flow Process
Map

Note: Created with Microsoft Visio.

Healthcare Operat ions Management288

• Service time or cycle time is the time to process one unit. The cycle time
of a process is equal to the longest task cycle time in that process. The
probability distribution of service times may also be of interest.

• Idle time or wait time is the time a unit spends waiting to be processed.
• Arrival rate is the rate at which units arrive to the process. The

probability distribution of arrival rates may also be of interest.
• Work-in-process, things-in-process, patients-in-process, or inventory

describes the total number of units in the process.
• Setup time is the amount of time spent getting ready to process the next

unit.
• Value-added time is the time a unit spends in the process where value is

being added to the unit.
• Non-value-added time is the time a unit spends in the process where no

value is being added. Wait time is non-value-added time.
• Number of defects or errors.

The art in process mapping is to provide enough detail to be able to
measure overall system performance, determine areas for improvement, and
measure the impact of these changes.

Tools for Process Improvement
Once a system has been mapped, several techniques can be considered for
improving the process. These improvements should result in a reduction in
the duration, cost, or waste in a system.

Eliminate Non-Value-Added Activities
The first step after a system has been mapped is to evaluate every element to
ascertain whether each is necessary and provides value (to the customer or
patient). If a system has been in place for a long period and has not been evalu-
ated through a formal process improvement project, elements of the system
can likely be easily eliminated. This step is sometimes referred to as “harvesting
the low-hanging fruit.”

Eliminate Duplicate Activities
Many processes in systems have been added on top of existing systems without
formally evaluating the total system, frequently resulting in duplicate activities.
The most infamous redundant process step in healthcare is asking patients
repeatedly for their contact information. Duplicate activities increase both time
and cost in a system and should be eliminated whenever possible.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 289

Combine Related Activities
Process improvement teams should examine both the process map and the
activity and swim lane map. If a patient moves back and forth between depart-
ments, the movement should be reduced by combining these activities so he
only needs to be in each department once.

Process in Parallel
Although a patient can only be in one place at one time, other aspects of her
care can be completed simultaneously. For example, medication preparation,
physician review of tests, and chart documentation can all be performed at the
same time. As more tasks are executed simultaneously, the total time a patient
spends in the process is reduced. Similar to a chef who has a number of dishes
on the stove synchronized to be completed at the same time, much of the
patient care process can be completed simultaneously.

Another element of parallel processing is the relationship of subpro-
cesses to the main flow. For example, a lab result may need to be obtained
before a patient enters the operating suite. Many of these subprocesses can
be synchronized through the analysis and use of takt time (chapter 10). This
synchronization enables efficient process flow, thereby optimizing the process.

Balance Workloads
If similar workers perform the same task, a well-tuned system can be designed
to balance the work among them. For example, a mass-immunization clinic
should develop its system so that all immunization stations are active at all
times. This aim can be accomplished by using a single queue that feeds into
multiple immunization stations.

Load balancing (or load leveling, heijunka) is difficult when employ-
ees can only perform a limited set of specific tasks (a consequence of the
superspecialization of the healthcare professions). Load balancing is easier in
environments that feature cross-training of employees than in those that limit
employee tasks to singular functions.

Develop Alternative Process Flow Paths and Contingency Plans
The number and placement of decision points in the process should be evalu-
ated and optimized. A system with few decision points has few alternative
paths and, therefore, does not respond well to unexpected events. Alternative
paths or contingency plans should be developed for these types of events. For
example, a standard clinic patient rooming system should designate alternative
paths for when an emergency occurs, a patient is late, a provider is delayed, or
medical records are absent.

Healthcare Operat ions Management290

Establish the Critical Path
For complex pathways in a system, identifying the critical pathway with tools
described in chapter 5 can be helpful. If a critical path can be identified, execu-
tion of processes on the pathway can be improved (e.g., reduce average service
time). In some cases, the process can be moved off the critical path and be
performed in parallel to it. Either technique decreases the total time on the
critical pathway. In the case of patient flow, moving this process off the critical
pathway decreases the patient’s total time spent in the system.

Embed Information Feedback and Real-Time Control
Some systems have a high level of variability in their operations because they
experience variability in the arrival of jobs or customers (patients) into the
process and variability of the cycle time of each process in the system. High
variability in the system can lead to poor performance. One tool to reduce
variability is the control loop. Information can be obtained from one process
and used to drive change in another. For example, the number of patients in
the ED waiting area can be continuously monitored, and if it reaches a certain
level, contingency plans—such as floating in additional staff from other por-
tions of the hospital—can be initiated.

Ensure Quality at the Source
Many systems contain multiple reviews, approvals, and inspections. A system
in which the task is performed correctly the first time should not require these
redundancies. Deming (1998) first identified this problem in the process design
of manufacturing lines that had inspectors throughout the assembly process.
This expensive and ineffective system was one of the factors that gave rise to
the quality movement in Japan and, later, the United States.

Systems should be designed to embed quality at their source or beginning
to eliminate inspections. For example, a billing system that requires a clerk to
inspect a bill before it is released does not have quality built into the process.

Match Capacity to Demand
A common problem in 24-hour healthcare operations is having too few or too
many staff for patient care demand. This problem is exacerbated if an organiza-
tion only allows set shifts (e.g., eight hours).

To solve this problem, first graph and analyze demand on an hourly and
daily basis. Then develop staffing patterns that match this demand. For example,
a five-hour or seven-hour shift might be needed to correctly meet the demand.

Using the tools in chapter 7, you should be able to identify patterns of
demand (e.g., high ED demand on Friday and Saturday evenings). Chapter
12 also provides details on capacity planning.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 291

Let the Patient Do the Work
The Internet and other advanced information technologies have allowed for
increased self-service in service industries. Individuals are now comfortable
booking their own airline reservations, buying goods online, and checking
themselves out at retailers. This trend can be exploited in healthcare with tools
that enable patients to be part of the process. For example, online tools are now
available that allow patients to make their own clinic appointments. Letting
the patient do the work reduces the work of staff and provides an opportunity
for quality at the source—the data are more likely to be correct if the patients
input them than if a staff member does so.

Use Technology
The electronic health record and other IT tools provide a platform to automate
many tasks that were once performed manually. A good rubric through which
to identify these tasks is to examine every daily task and ask where it ranks in
complexity on the basis of your professional training. For those tasks that are
low on this list, consider ways to automate them.

Today, work is an activity—not a place. The widespread use of smart-
phones and tablets enables work to be performed outside the traditional work-
place. Consider moving some tasks to these devices to improve your personal
productivity.

Apply the Theory of Constraints
Chapter 6 discusses the underlying principles and applications of the theory
of constraints, which can be used as a powerful process improvement tool.
First, the bottleneck in a system is identified, often through the observation
of queues forming in front of it. Once a bottleneck is identified, it should be
exploited and everything else in the system subordinated to it. Specifically, other
nonbottleneck resources (or steps in the process) should be synchronized to
match the output of the constraint. Idleness at a nonbottleneck resource costs
nothing, and nonbottlenecks should never produce more than can be consumed
by the bottleneck resource. Often, this synchronization causes the bottleneck
to shift and a new bottleneck is identified. However, if the original bottleneck
remains, the possibility of elevating the bottleneck needs to be considered.
Elevating bottlenecks requires additional resources (e.g., staff, equipment),
so a comprehensive financial and outcomes analysis needs to be undertaken
to determine the trade-offs among process improvement, quality, and costs.

Identify Best Practices and Replicate
Although this tip does not describe a formal operations management tool,
it must be mentioned as a highly recommended management approach. As

Healthcare Operat ions Management292

health systems expand, they are likely to have many similar activities replicated
in separate geographic sites. Good management practice is to identify high-
performing sites (e.g., the best primary care clinic in a system) and replicate
their core processes throughout the organization.

A similar approach can be taken with individual employees. For example,
study the best billing clerk in a hospital to understand her processes and then
replicate them with all the billers in a department.

The Science of Lines: Queuing Theory

Although most people are familiar with waiting in line, few are familiar with, or
even aware of, queuing theory, or the theory of waiting lines. Most people’s
experience with waiting lines is when they are actually part of those lines, for
example, when waiting to check out in a retail environment. In a manufactur-
ing environment, items wait in line to be worked on. In a service environment,
customers wait for a service to be performed.

Queues, or lines, form because the resources needed to serve them
(servers) are limited—deploying unlimited resources is economically unfeasible.
Queuing theory is used to study systems to determine the best balance between
service to customers (short or no waiting lines, implying many resources or
servers) and economic considerations (few servers, implying long lines). A
simple queuing system is illustrated in exhibit 11.2.

Customers (often referred to as entities) arrive and either are served (if
there is no line) or enter the queue (if others are waiting to be served). Once
they are served, customers exit the system.

The customer population, or input source, can be either finite or infi-
nite. If the source is effectively infinite, the analysis of the system is easier than
if it is finite because simplifying assumptions can be made.

The arrival process is characterized by the arrival pattern—the rate at
which customers arrive (number of customers divided by unit of time)—or
by the interarrival time (time between arrivals) and the distribution in time
of those arrivals. The distribution of arrivals can be constant or variable. A

Queuing theory
The mathematical
study of wait lines.

Customer
population,
input source

Buffer or queue

Server(s) Exit
Arrival

EXHIBIT 11.2
Simple Queuing

System

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 293

constant arrival distribution has a fixed interarrival time. A variable, or random,
arrival pattern is described by a probability distribution. The queue discipline
is the method by which customers are selected from the queue to be served.
Often, customers are served in the order in which they arrived—first come,
first served. However, many other queue disciplines are possible, and choice
of a particular discipline can greatly affect system performance. For example,
choosing the customer whose service can be completed most quickly (shortest
processing time) usually minimizes the average time customers spend waiting
in line. This result is one reason urgent care centers are often located near an
ED—urgent issues can usually be handled more quickly than true emergen-
cies can.

The service process is characterized by the number of servers and service
time. Like arrivals, the distribution of service times can be constant or vari-
able. Often, the exponential distribution (M) is used to model variable service
times, μ is the mean service rate, λ is the mean arrival rate, and ρ is capacity
utilization. (An exponential distribution creates data points that simulate a
purely random process.)

Queuing Notation
The type of queuing system is identified with a specific notation in the form
of A/B/c/D/E. The A represents the interarrival time distribution, and B
represents the service time distribution. A and B together are represented as
either a deterministic or a constant rate. The c represents the number of serv-
ers, D is the maximum queue size, and E is the size of the input population.
When both queue and input population are assumed to be infinite, D and E are
typically omitted. An M/M/1 queuing system, therefore, has an exponential
service time distribution, a single server, an infinite possible queue length, and
an infinite input population; it assumes only one queue. An M/M/1 queue for
VVH is used as an example throughout the remainder of the chapter.

Queuing Solutions
Analytic solutions for some simple queuing systems at equilibrium or steady
state (after the system has been running for some time and is unchanging, often
referred to as a stable system) have been determined; however, the derivation
of these results is outside the scope of this text. Refer to Cooper (1981) for
a complete derivation and results for many other types of queuing systems.

Here, we focus primarily on the M/M/1 queuing system by presenting
the results for an M/M/1 queue where λ < μ—the arrival rate is less than the
service rate. Note that if λ ≥ μ (customers arrive faster than they are served),
the queue becomes infinitely long, the number of customers in the system
becomes infinite, waiting time becomes infinite, and the server experiences
100 percent capacity utilization (percentage of time the server is busy). The

Queue discipline
In queuing theory,
the method by
which customers
are selected from
the queue to be
served.

Healthcare Operat ions Management294

following formulas can be used to determine some characteristics of the queu-
ing system at steady state.

Capacity utilization:

Wq =

λ

μ μ λ( )

ρ
λ
μ

= = =
Mean arrival rate
Mean service rate

1 Meaan time between arrivals
1/Mean service timee
Mean service time

Mean time between arriv
=

aals

Average waiting time in queue:

Wq =

λ

μ μ λ( )

ρ
λ
μ

= = =
Mean arrival rate
Mean service rate

1 Meaan time between arrivals
1/Mean service timee
Mean service time

Mean time between arriv
=

aals

Average time in the system (average waiting time in queue plus average service
time):

Lq =

=

⎠ −


λ

μ μ λ
λ
μ

λ
μ λ

2

( )

W Ws q= + =

1 1
μ μ λ

= Arrival rate × Time in the systemL Wss = −
=

λ
μ λ

λ

Average length of queue (average number in queue):

Lq =

=

⎠ −


λ

μ μ λ
λ
μ

λ
μ λ

2

( )

W Ws q= + =

1 1
μ μ λ

= Arrival rate × Time in the systemL Wss = −
=

λ
μ λ

λAverage total number of customers in the system:
Lq =


=

⎠ −


λ

μ μ λ
λ
μ

λ
μ λ

2

( )

W Ws q= + =

1 1
μ μ λ

= Arrival rate × Time in the systemL Wss = −
=

λ
μ λ

λ = Arrival rate × Time in the system

This last result is called Little’s law and applies to all types of queuing
systems and subsystems. To summarize this result in plain language, in a stable
system or process, the number of things in the system is equal to the rate at
which things arrive to the system multiplied by the time they spend in the
system. In a stable system, the average rate at which things arrive to the system
is equal to the average rate at which things leave the system. If this were not
true, the system would not be stable.

Little’s law can also be restated using other terminology:

Inventory (things in the system) = Arrival rate (or departure rate) ×
Throughput time (flow time)

Little’s law
The relationship
between the arrival
rate to a system,
the time an item
(e.g., a patient)
spends in the
system, and the
number of items in
a system.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 295

or

Throughput time = Inventory ÷ Arrival rate

Knowledge of two of the variables in Little’s law allows calculation of
the third variable. Consider a clinic that serves 200 patients in an eight-hour
day, or an average of 25 patients an hour. The average number of patients in
the clinic (waiting room, exams rooms, etc.) is 15. Therefore, the average
throughput time is

T = I/λ

=

= 0.6 hour,

where T is throughput time, λ is patients per hour, and I is number of patients.
Hence, each patient spends an average of 36 minutes in the clinic.

Little’s law has important implications for process improvement and
can be seen as the basis of many improvement techniques. Throughput time
can be decreased by decreasing inventory or increasing departure rate. Lean
initiatives often focus on decreasing throughput time (or increasing throughput
rate) by decreasing inventory. The theory of constraints (chapter 6) focuses
on identifying and eliminating system bottlenecks. The departure rate in any
system is equal to 1 ÷ task cycle time of the slowest task in the system or
process (the bottleneck). Decreasing the amount of time an object spends at
the bottleneck task therefore increases the departure rate of the system and
decreases throughput time.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System M/M/1 Queue
VVH began receiving complaints from patients related to crowded conditions
in the waiting area for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) procedures. The
organization has determined a goal to average just one patient waiting in line
for the MRI. It has collected data on arrival and service rates and sees that,
for MRIs, the mean service rate (μ) is four patients per hour, exponentially
distributed. VVH also finds that the mean arrival rate (λ) is three patients per
hour. To find the capacity utilization of MRI (percentage of time the MRI is
busy), VVH uses the following formula:


3
4

75% or
1
1

15 minutes
20 minutes

75%.ρ
λ
μ

ρ
μ
λ

= = = = = =

If one customer arrives every 20 minutes and assuming each MRI takes 15
minutes to complete, the MRI is busy 75 percent of the time.

15 patients

25 patients/hour

Healthcare Operat ions Management296

Next, VVH calculates patients’ average time waiting in line,

Ls = λWs = Arrival rate × Time in the system =
3 Patients/Hour × 1 Hour = 3 Patients

Ls =

=

=
λ

μ λ
3

4 3
3 patients

Ws =

=

=
1 1

4 3μ λ
1 hour.

Wq =

=

= =
λ

μ μ λ( ) ( )
3

4 4 3
3
4

0.75 hour,

ρ
λ
μ

ρ
μ
λ

= = = = = =
3
4

75
1
1

15
20

% or
Minutes
Minutes

775%

and average time spent in the system,

Ls = λWs = Arrival rate × Time in the system =
3 Patients/Hour × 1 Hour = 3 Patients

Ls =

=

=
λ

μ λ
3

4 3
3 patients

Ws =

=

=
1 1

4 3μ λ
1 hour.

Wq =

=

= =
λ

μ μ λ( ) ( )
3

4 4 3
3
4

0.75 hour,

ρ
λ
μ

ρ
μ
λ

= = = = = =
3
4

75
1
1

15
20

% or
Minutes
Minutes

775%

Finally, it determines average total number of patients in the system,

Ls = λWs = Arrival rate × Time in the system =
3 Patients/Hour × 1 Hour = 3 Patients

Ls =

=

=
λ

μ λ
3

4 3
3 patients

Ws =

=

=
1 1

4 3μ λ
1 hour.

Wq =

=

= =
λ

μ μ λ( ) ( )
3

4 4 3
3
4

0.75 hour,

ρ
λ
μ

ρ
μ
λ

= = = = = =
3
4

75
1
1

15
20

% or
Minutes
Minutes

775%

or

Ls = λWs = Arrival rate × Time in the system = 3 patients/hour × 1 hour = 3 patients,

and average number of patients in the waiting line,

Lq =

=

=

− = − = =

3
3

3
3

1

3 3 3 9

3

2 2

2 2

2

μ μ μ μ

μ μ μ μ

μ

( ) ( )

( )

μμ

μ

− =

=

9 0
4 85..

Lq =

=

=

= × − = −

+

λ
μ μ λ

λ
λ

λ λ λ

λ

2 2

2

2

4 4
1

4 4 16 4

( ) ( )

( )

44 16 0
2 47.
λ

λ

− =

= .

Lq =

=





⎟ =






λ

μ μ λ
λ
μ

λ
μ λ

2 3
4

3
4 3( )

⎛⎛



=

= =
3

4 4 3
9
4

2

( )
2.25 patients.

To decrease the average number of patients waiting, VVH needs to
decrease the utilization, ρ = λ ÷ μ, of the MRI process. In other words, the
service rate must be increased or the arrival rate decreased. VVH may increase
the service rate by making the MRI process more efficient so that the average
time to perform the procedure is decreased and MRIs can be performed on
a greater number of patients in an hour. Alternatively, the organization may
decrease the arrival rate by scheduling fewer patients per hour.

To achieve its goal (assuming that the service rate is not increased),
VVH needs to decrease the arrival rate to

Lq =

=

=

− = − = =

3
3

3
3

1

3 3 3 9

3

2 2

2 2

2

μ μ μ μ

μ μ μ μ

μ

( ) ( )

( )

μμ

μ

− =

=

9 0
4 85..

Lq =

=

=

= × − = −

+

λ
μ μ λ

λ
λ

λ λ λ

λ

2 2

2

2

4 4
1

4 4 16 4

( ) ( )

( )

44 16 0
2 47.
λ

λ

− =

= .

Lq =

=





⎟ =






λ

μ μ λ
λ
μ

λ
μ λ

2 3
4

3
4 3( )

⎛⎛



=

= =
3

4 4 3
9
4

2

( )
2.25 patients.

Alternatively (assuming that the arrival rate is not decreased), VVH may increase
the service rate to

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 297

Lq =

=

=

− = − = =

3
3

3
3

1

3 3 3 9

3

2 2

2 2

2

μ μ μ μ

μ μ μ μ

μ

( ) ( )

( )

μμ

μ

− =

=

9 0
4 85..

Lq =

=

=

= × − = −

+

λ
μ μ λ

λ
λ

λ λ λ

λ

2 2

2

2

4 4
1

4 4 16 4

( ) ( )

( )

44 16 0
2 47.
λ

λ

− =

= .

Lq =

=





⎟ =






λ

μ μ λ
λ
μ

λ
μ λ

2 3
4

3
4 3( )

⎛⎛



=

= =
3

4 4 3
9
4

2

( )
2.25 patients.

VVH may also implement some combination of decreasing arrival rate
and increasing service rate. In all cases, utilization of the MRI will be reduced
to ρ = λ ÷ μ = 2.47 ÷ 4.00, or 3.00 ÷ 4.85 = 0.62.

Real systems are seldom as simple as an M/M/1 queuing system and
rarely reach equilibrium. Often, simulation is needed to study these more
complicated systems.

Discrete Event Simulation
Discrete event simulation (DES) is typically performed using commercially
available software packages. As with Monte Carlo simulation, performing DES
by hand is an option, albeit a tedious one. Two popular simulation software
packages are Arena (Rockwell Automation 2016) and Simul8 (Simul8 Cor-
poration 2016).

The terminology and general logic of DES are built on queuing theory.
A basic simulation model consists of entities, queues, and resources, all of
which can have various attributes. Entities are the objects that flow through the
system; in healthcare, entities typically are patients, but they can be any object
on which some service or task will be performed. For example, blood samples
in the hematology lab are entities. Queues are the waiting lines that hold the
entities while they await service. Resources (previously referred to as servers)
can be people, equipment, or space for which entities compete.

The specific operation of a simulation model is based on states (variables
that describe the system at a point in time) and events (variables that change
the state of the system). Events are controlled by the simulation executive, and
data are collected on the state of the system as events occur. The simulation
jumps through time from event to event.

A simple example from the Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System
M/M/1 MRI queuing discussion helps show the logic behind DES software.
Exhibit 11.3 contains a list of the events as they happen in the simulation. The
arrival rate is three patients per hour, and the service rate is four patients per
hour. Random interarrival times are generated using an exponential distribu-
tion with a mean of 0.33 hours. Random service times are generated using an
exponential distribution with a mean of 0.25 hours (shown at the bottom of
exhibit 11.10 later in this chapter).

Healthcare Operat ions Management298

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ep

5
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r

1
2

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4

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6

7
8

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te

ra
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ti
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po
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(0
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0.

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Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 299

The simulation starts at time 0.00. The first event is the arrival of the
first patient (entity); there is no line (queue), so this patient enters service.
Upcoming events are the arrival of the next patient at 0.17 hours (the interar-
rival between patients 1 and 2 is 0.17 hours) and the completion of the first
patient’s service at 0.21 hours.

The next event is the arrival of patient 2 at 0.17 hours. Because the
MRI on patient 1 is not complete, patient 2 enters the queue. The MRI has
been busy since the start of the simulation, so the utilization of the MRI is 100
percent. Upcoming events are the completion of the first patient’s service at
0.21 hours and the arrival of patient 3 at 0.54 hours (the interarrival between
patients 2 and 3 is 0.37 hours).

When the first patient’s MRI is completed at 0.21 hours, no one is
waiting in the queue because once patient 1 has completed service, patient 2
can enter service. The total waiting time in the queue for all patients is 0.04
hours (the difference between when patient 2 entered the queue and entered
service). The average queue length is 0.19 patients. No people were in line for
0.17 hours, and one person was in line for 0.04 hours:

= 0.19 people.

Upcoming events are the arrival of patient 3 at 0.54 hours and the departure
of patient 2 at 0.77 hours (patient 2 entered service at 0.21 hours, and service
takes 0.56 hours).

Patient 3 arrives at 0.54 hours and joins the queue because the MRI
is still busy with patient 2. The average queue length has decreased from the
previous event because more time has passed with no one in the queue—only
one person has been in the queue for 0.04 hours, but total time in the simula-
tion is 0.54 hours. Upcoming events are the departure of patient 2 at 0.77
hours and the arrival of patient 4 at 0.90 hours.

Patient 2 departs at 0.77 hours. No one is waiting in the queue at this
point because patient 3 has entered service. Two people have departed the
system. The total wait time in the queue for all patients is 0.04 hours for patient
2 plus 0.17 hours for patient 3 (0.77 hours − 0.54 hours) for a total of 0.21
hours. The average queue length is

= 0.35 people.

The MRI utilization is still at 100 percent because the MRI has been busy
constantly since the start of the simulation. Upcoming events are the departure

0 people × 0.17 hours + 1 person × 0.04 hours

0.21 hours

0 people × 0.50 hours + 1 person × 0.21 hours

0.77 hours

Healthcare Operat ions Management300

of patient 3 at 0.79 hours (patient 3 arrived at 0.54 hours, and service takes
0.25 hours) and the arrival of patient 4 at 0.90 hours.

Patient 3 departs at 0.79 hours. Because no patients are waiting for the
MRI, it becomes idle. Upcoming events are the arrival of patient 4 at 0.90
hours and the departure of patient 4 at 1.27 hours.

With patient 4 arriving at 0.90 hours and entering service, the utilization
of the MRI has decreased to 88 percent because it was idle for 0.11 hours of
the 0.90 hours the simulation has run. Upcoming events are the departure of
patient 4 at 1.27 hours and the arrival of patient 5 at 1.49 hours. The simula-
tion continues in this manner until the desired stop time is reached.

Even for this simple model, performing these calculations by hand takes
a long time. Additionally, an advantage of simulation is that it uses process map-
ping; many simulation software packages are able to import and use Microsoft
Visio process and value stream maps. DES software allows process improvement
teams to build, run, and analyze simple models in limited time; Arena software
was used to build and simulate the present model (exhibit 11.4).

As before, the arrival rate is three patients per hour, the service rate is
four patients per hour, and both rates are exponentially distributed. Averages
over time for queue length, wait time, and utilization for a single replication are

SCANNER

AVERAGE NUMBER IN QUEUE AVERAGE WAIT IN QUEUE AND SYSTEM

3.0

0.0

2.0

0.0

1.0

0.0

0.0020.0
0.0020.0

0.0020.0

MRI UTILIZATION

Patient
demand

MRI exam Exit

9 8 51 9 5 2

03 : 57 : 26

Note: Created with Arena simulation software. M = exponential distribution; MRI = magnetic
resonance imaging.

EXHIBIT 11.4
Arena

Simulation
of VVH MRI

M/M/1 Queuing
Example

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 301

shown in the plots in exhibit 11.12 later in the chapter. Each of 30 replications
of the simulation is run for 200 hours. Replications are needed to determine
confidence intervals for the reported values. Some of the output from this
simulation is shown in exhibit 11.5. The sample mean plus or minus the half-
width gives the 95 percent confidence interval for the mean. Increasing the
number of replications reduces the half-width. The results of this simulation
agree fairly closely with the calculated steady-state results because the process
was assumed to run continuously for a significant period, 200 hours. A more
realistic assumption might be that MRI procedures are only performed ten
hours every day. The Arena simulation was rerun with this assumption, and
the results are shown in exhibit 11.6. The average wait times, queue length,
and utilization are lower than the steady-state values.

Category Overview
July 26, 20118:22:36 AM

Values across all replications

MRI Example

Replications: 30 Time unit: Hours

Key Performance Indicators

Average
601

System
Number out

Entity

Time

Patient

Patient

Total
Time

Average
Half-

Width
Wait
Time

Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

0.7241

0.9734

0.08

0.08

0.5009

0.7427

1.3496 0.00 7.3900

1.6174 0.00001961 7.4140

2.1944 0.25 1.4326 4.2851 0.00 29.0000

0.7488 0.01 0.6767 0.8513 0.00 1.0000

Usage

Instantaneous
Utilization

Number
Waiting

MRI exam queue

Resource

MRI

Arrival rate = 3 patients/hour; service rate = 4 patients/hour.

Queue

Other

Note: Created with Arena simulation software. M = exponential distribution; MRI = magnetic
resonance imaging.

EXHIBIT 11.5
Arena Output
for VVH MRI
M/M/1 Queuing
Example: 200
Hours

Healthcare Operat ions Management302

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System M/M/1 Queue
VVH has determined that a steady-state analysis is not appropriate for its situa-
tion because MRIs are only offered ten hours a day. The process improvement
team assigned to this system decides to analyze the situation using simulation.
Once the model is built and run, the model and simulation results are com-
pared with actual data and evaluated by relevant staff to ensure that the model
accurately reflects reality. All staff agree that the model is valid and can be used
to determine how to achieve the stated goal. If the model had not been con-
sidered valid, the team would have needed to build and validate a new model.

The results of the simulation (refer to exhibit 11.14 later in the chapter)
indicate that VVH has an average of 1.5 patients in the queue. To reach the
desired goal of only one patient waiting on average, VVH needs to decrease the
arrival rate or increase the service rate. Using trial and error in the simulation,

Category Overview
July 26, 201112:19:03 PM

Values across all replications

MRI Example

Replications: 30 Time unit: Hours

Key Performance Indicators

Average
28

System
Number out

Entity

Time

Patient

Patient

Total
Time

Average
Half-

Width
Wait
Time

Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

0.4778

0.7304

0.15

0.16

0.02803444

0.2407

1.4312 0.00 2.9818

1.7611 0.00082680 3.3129

1.5265 0.46 0.2219 4.5799 0.00 10.0000

0.7167 0.05 0.4088 0.9780 0.00 1.0000

Usage

Instantaneous
Utilization

Number
Waiting

MRI exam queue

Resource

MRI

Arrival rate = 3 patients/hour; service rate = 4 patients/hour.

Queue

Other

Note: Created with Arena simulation software. M = exponential distribution; MRI = magnetic
resonance imaging.

EXHIBIT 11.6
Arena Output

for VVH MRI
M/M/1 Queuing

Example: 10
Hours

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 303

the organization finds that decreasing the arrival rate to 2.7 or increasing the
service rate to 4.4 will allow the goal to be achieved.

However, even using the improvement tools in this text, the team
believes that the organization will only be able to increase the service rate of
the MRI to 4.2 patients per hour. Therefore, to reach the goal, the arrival rate
must also be decreased. Again using the simulation, VVH finds that it needs
to decrease the arrival rate to 2.8 patients per hour. Exhibit 11.7 shows the
results of this simulation.

The team recommends that (1) a kaizen event be held for the MRI
process to increase service rate and (2) appointments for the MRI be reduced
to decrease the arrival rate. However, the team also notes that implementing
these changes will reduce the average number of patients served from 28 to
26 and reduce the utilization of the MRI from 0.72 to 0.69. More positively,
average patient wait time will be reduced from 0.48 hours to 0.35 hours.

Category Overview
July 26, 20118:24:44 AM

Values across all replications

MRI Example

Replications: 30 Time unit: Hours

Key Performance Indicators

Average
26

System
Number out

Entity

Patient

Patient

Total
Time

Average
Half-

Width
Wait
Time

Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

Average
Half-

Width
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Average

Maximum
Value

0.3507

0.6008

0.12

0.14

0.02449931

0.1899

1.4202 0.00 3.4973

1.7825 0.00097591 4.2210

1.0342 0.36 0.0928 4.2272 0.00 9.0000

0.6682 0.06 0.3314 0.9456 0.00 1.0000

Usage

Instantaneous
Utilization

Number
Waiting

MRI exam queue

Resource

MRI

Arrival rate = 2.8 patients/hour; service rate = 4.2 patients/hour; 10 hours simulated.

Queue

Other

EXHIBIT 11.7
Arena Output
for VVH MRI
M/M/1 Queuing
Example:
Decreased
Arrival Rate,
Increased
Service Rate

Note: Created with Arena simulation software. M = exponential distribution; MRI = magnetic
resonance imaging.

Healthcare Operat ions Management304

VVH is able to increase the service rate to 4.2 patients per hour and
decrease the arrival rate to 2.8 patients per hour, and the results are as predicted
by the simulation. The team now begins to investigate other solutions enabling
VVH to increase MRI utilization while maintaining wait times and queue length.

Simulation and Queuing Theory Findings
Simulation is a powerful tool for modeling processes and systems to evaluate
choices and opportunities. As is true of all of the tools and techniques presented
in this text, simulation can be used in conjunction with other initiatives, such as
Lean or Six Sigma, to enable continuous improvement of systems and processes.

In a series of studies, queuing theory has been used to analyze flow of
EDs and operating rooms (Butterfield 2007; McManus et al. 2004). In many
instances, surgical suites more than doubled the number of surgeries they are able
to complete in a short time. Because surgeries are a prime source of revenue and
margin for most hospitals, this improvement makes the hospital more profitable.

Process Improvement in Practice

In this section, we review methods and tools that, in addition to simulation, are
key approaches to process improvement, and we apply them to an emergency
department scenario at VVH.

Review of Methodologies
Six Sigma
If the primary goal of a process improvement project is to improve quality
(reduce the variability in outcomes), the Six Sigma approach and tools described
in chapter 9 yield the best results. As discussed previously, Six Sigma uses
seven basic tools: fishbone diagrams, check sheets, histograms, Pareto charts,
flowcharts, scatter plots, and run charts. It also includes statistical process
control to provide an ongoing measurement of process output characteristics
to ensure quality and enable the identification of a problem situation before
an error occurs.

The Six Sigma approach also includes measuring process capability—
whether a process is capable of producing the desired output—and benchmark-
ing it against other similar processes in other organizations. Quality function
deployment is used to match customer requirements (voice of the customer)
with process capabilities given that trade-offs must be made. Poka-yoke is
employed selectively to mistake-proof parts of a process.

A primary function of Six Sigma programs is to eliminate sources of
artificial variance in processes and systems. Natural variance occurs in any
system, such as heat, temperature, and patients getting sick or breaking a leg.
Artificial variance is created by the people in the system and is completely

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 305

in their control. Six Sigma programs identify and eliminate those sources of
artificial variance. For example, scheduling systems, overtime allocations, and
business office processing systems can all be changed by people in the system.
The secret to a successful Six Sigma program is removing all the artificial vari-
ance and focusing on creating value for customers. Effective Six Sigma systems
strategically employ Lean concepts to achieve this goal.

Lean
Process improvement projects focused on eliminating waste and improving flow
in the system or process can use many of the tools that are part of the Lean
approach (chapter 10). The kaizen philosophy, which is the basis for Lean,
includes the following steps:

1. Specify value. Identify activities that provide value from the customer’s
perspective.

2. Map and improve the value stream. Determine the sequence of activities
or the current state of the process and the desired future state.
Eliminate non-value-added steps and other waste.

3. Enable flow. Allow the process to flow as smoothly and quickly as
possible.

4. Enable pull. Allow the customer to pull products or services.
5. Perfect. Repeat the cycle to ensure a focus on continuous

improvement.

An important part of Lean is value stream mapping, which is used to
define the process and determine where waste is occurring. Takt time measures
the time needed for the process to occur. It is based on customer demand and
can be used to synchronize flow in a process. Standardized work, an important
part of the Lean approach, is written documentation of the precise way in which
every step in a process should be performed and helps ensure that activities are
completed the same way every time in an efficient manner.

Other Lean tools include the five Ss (a technique to organize the work-
place) and spaghetti diagrams (a mapping technique to show the movement of
customers, patients, workers, equipment, jobs, etc.). Leveling workload (hei-
junka) so that the system or process flows without interruption can be used to
improve the value stream. Kaizen blitzes or events are Lean tools used to improve
the process quickly when project management is not needed (chapter 10).

Process Improvement Project: Vincent Valley Hospital and Health
System Emergency Department
To demonstrate the power of many of the process improvement tools described
in this book, an extensive patient flow process improvement project at VVH
is examined.

Healthcare Operat ions Management306

VVH has identified patient flow in the ED as an important area on which
to focus process improvement efforts. The goal of the project is to reduce total
patient time in the ED (both waiting and care delivery) while maintaining or
improving financial performance.

The first step for VVH leadership is to charter a multidepartmental team
using the project management methods described in chapter 5. The head nurse
for emergency services has been appointed project leader. The team feels VVH
should take a number of steps to improve patient flow in the ED and splits the
systems improvement project into three major phases. First, team members
will perform simple data collection and basic process improvement to identify
low-hanging fruit and make obvious, straightforward changes.

Once the team feels comfortable with its understanding of the basics of
patient flow in the department, it will work to understand the elements of the
system more fully by collecting detailed data. Then, value stream mapping and
the theory of constraints will be used to identify opportunities for improve-
ment. Root-cause analysis will be employed on poorly performing processes
and tasks; resulting changes will be adopted and their effects measured.

The third phase of the project will be the use of simulation. Because the
team, by this stage in the improvement effort, will have complete knowledge
of patient flow in the system, it will be able to develop and test a simulation
model with confidence. Once the simulation is validated, the team will con-
tinuously test process improvements in the simulation model and implement
them in the ED.

The specific high-level tasks in this project are as follows.

Phase I

1. Observe patient flow and develop a detailed process map.
2. Measure high-level patient flow metrics for one week:

• Patients arriving per hour
• Patients departing per hour to inpatient
• Patients departing per hour to home
• Number of patients in the ED, including the waiting area and exam

rooms
3. With the process map and data in hand, use simple process

improvement techniques to make changes in the process, then measure
the results.

Phase II
4. Set up a measurement system for each individual process, and take

measurements over one week.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 307

5. Use value stream mapping and the theory of constraints to analyze
patient flow and make improvements, then measure the effects of the
changes.

Phase III
6. Collect data needed to build a realistic simulation model.
7. Develop the simulation model and validate it against real data.
8. Use the simulation model to conduct virtual experiments on process

improvements. Implement promising improvements, and measure the
results of the changes.

Phase I
VVH process improvement project team members observe patient flow and
record the needed data. With the information collected, the team creates a
detailed process map. Team members measure the following high-level operat-
ing statistics related to patient flow:

• Patients arriving per hour = 10
• Patients departing per hour to inpatient = 2
• Patients triaged to routine emergency care per hour = 8
• Patients departing per hour to home = 8
• Average number of patients in various parts of the system (sampled

every 10 minutes) = 20
• Average number of patients in ED exam rooms = 4

Using Little’s law, the average time in the ED (throughput time) is
calculated as

Throughput time = T
= I/λ

=

= 3 hours.

Hence, each patient spends an average of 3 hours, or 180 minutes, in the ED.
However, Little’s law only gives the average time in the department

at steady state. Therefore, the team measures total time in the system for a
sample of routine patients and determines an average of 165 minutes. It also
observes that the number of patients in the waiting room varies from 0 to
20 and the actual time to move through the process varies from one hour to
more than five hours.

24 patients

8 patients/hour

Healthcare Operat ions Management308

Initially, the team focuses on the ED admitting subsystem as an opportu-
nity for immediate improvement. Exhibit 11.8 shows the complete ED system,
with the admitting subsystem highlighted.

The team develops the following description of the admitting process
from its documentation of patient flow:

Patients who did not have an acute clinical problem were asked if they had health

insurance. If they did not have health insurance, they were sent to the admitting clerk

who specializes in Medicaid (to enroll them in a Medicaid program). If they had health

insurance, they were sent to the other clerk, who specializes in private insurance. If

a patient had been sent to the wrong clerk by triage, he was sent to the other clerk.

Triage–
financial

Routine
ED care

End

Patient
arrives

at the ED

Intensive
ED care

Triage–
clinical

Complexity

Low

High

Waiting

Admitting Subsystem

Waiting

Admitting
Medicaid

Admitting
private

insurance

Private
insurance

No

Yes

EXHIBIT 11.8
VVH Emergency

Department
(ED) Admitting

Subsystem

Note: Created with Microsoft Visio.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 309

The team determines that one process improvement change could be
to cross-train the admitting clerks on both private insurance and Medicaid
eligibility. This training would provide for load balancing, as patients would
automatically go to the free clerk. In addition, this system improvement would
eliminate triage staff errors in sending patients to the wrong clerk, hence pro-
viding quality at the source.

Phase II
Phase I produced some gains in reducing patient time in the ED. However,
the team feels more detailed data are needed to improve further. As a first step
in collecting these data, the team measures various parameters of the depart-
ment’s processes. Initially, it focuses on the period from 2:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m.,
Monday through Thursday, as this is the busy period in the ED and demand
seems relatively stable during these times.

The team draws a more detailed process map (exhibit 11.9) and performs
value stream mapping of this process (exhibit 11.10). First, team members
evaluate each step in the process to determine if it is value-added, non-value-
added, or non-value-added but necessary. Then, they measure the time a patient
spends at each step in the process. The team finds that after a patient has given
his insurance information, he spends an average of 30 minutes of non-value-
added time in the waiting room before a nurse is available to take his history
and record the presenting complaint, a process that takes an average of 20
minutes to complete. The percentage of value-added time for these two steps is

(Value-added time ÷ Total time) × 100 = [20 minutes ÷
(30 minutes + 20 minutes)] × 100 = 40%.

The team believes the waiting room process can be improved through
automation. Patients are handed a tablet personal computer in the waiting area
and asked to enter their symptoms and history via a series of branched questions.
The results are sent via a wireless network to VVH’s electronic health record
(EHR). This step takes patients an average of 20 minutes to complete. Staff
know which patients have completed the electronic interview by checking the
EHR and can prioritize which patient is to be seen next. This new procedure
also reduces the time the nurse spends with the patient to 10 minutes because
it enables the nurse to verify, rather than record, presenting symptoms and
patient history. The percentage of value-added time for the new procedure is

(Value-added time ÷ Total time) × 100
= [(Patient history time + Nurse history time) ÷ (Patient history time

+ Wait time
+ Nurse history time)] × 100

= [(20 minutes + 10 minutes) ÷ (20 minutes + 10 minutes + 10 minutes)] × 100
= 75%.

Healthcare Operat ions Management310

The average throughput time for a patient in the ED is reduced by
10 minutes. The average time for patients to flow through the department
(throughput time) prior to this improvement was 155 minutes. Because this
step is on the critical path of the complete routine care ED process, throughput
time for noncomplex patients is reduced to 145 minutes, a 7 percent produc-
tivity gain. An analyst from the VVH finance department (a member of the
project team) is able to demonstrate that the capital and software costs for the

EndDischarge

Patient
arrives

at the ED

Intensive
ED care

Admitting

Triage–
clinical

Complexity

Exam/
treatment

Nurse
history/

symptoms

Low

High

Waiting

Waiting

Fo
cu

s

Note: Created with Microsoft Visio.

EXHIBIT 11.9
VVH Emergency

Department
(ED) Process

Map: Focus on
Waiting and

History

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 311

tablet computers will be recovered within 12 months by the improvement in
patient flow.

This phase of the project used three of the basic process improvement
tools discussed in this chapter:

• Have the customer (patient) do it.
• Provide quality at the source.
• Gain information feedback and real-time control.

Although the process improvements already undertaken have had a
visible impact on flow in the ED, the team believes more improvements are
possible. Bottlenecks plague the process, as evidenced by two waiting lines, or
queues: (1) the waiting room queue, where patients wait before being moved
to an exam room, and (2) the most visible queue for routine patients, the
discharge area, where patients occasionally must stand because all of the area’s
chairs are occupied. In the discharge area, patients wait a significant amount
of time for final instructions and prescriptions.

The theory of constraints suggests that the bottleneck be identified
and optimized. However, alleviating or eliminating the patient examination
and treatment or discharge bottlenecks would require significant changes in a
long-standing process. Because this process improvement step seems to have
the probability of a high payoff but would be a significant departure from
existing practice, the team moves to phase III of the project and uses simula-
tion to model different options to improve patient flow in the examination/
treatment and discharge processes.

Discharge

m

%

#

Cycle
time

FTEs

First-
time

correct

Exam/
treatment

m

%

#

Cycle
time

FTEs

First-
time

correct

Patients

#/
hr

12
Arrival

rate

0 min
5 min 9 min

30 min

Hr

Hr

Hr

Hr

20 min

Nurse
(history)

m

%

#

20

nm

2

Cycle
time

FTEs

First-
time

correct

Admitting
(insurance)

Intensive
ED care

m

%

#

9

nm

2

Cycle
time

FTEs

First-
time

correct

Triage

m

%

#

5

nm

1

Cycle
time

FTEs

First-
time

correct

EXHIBIT 11.10
VVH Emergency
Department
(ED) Value
Stream Map:
Focus on
Waiting and
History

Note: Created with eVSM software, a Microsoft Visio add-on from GumshoeKI, Inc. FTE = full-time
equivalent; nm = number of patients in this step of the process.

Healthcare Operat ions Management312

Phase III
First, the team reviews the basic terminology of simulation.

• An entity is what flows through a system. Here, the entity is the patient.
However, in other systems, the entity can be materials (e.g., blood
sample, drug) or information (e.g., diagnosis, billing code). Entities
usually have attributes that affect their flow through the system (e.g.,
male/female, acute/chronic condition).

• Each individual process in the system transforms (adds value to)
the entity being processed. Each process takes time and consumes
resources, such as staff, equipment, supplies, and information.

• Time and resource use can be defined as an exact value (e.g., ten
minutes) or a probability distribution (e.g., normal—mean, standard
deviation). Most healthcare tasks and processes do not require the
same amount of time each time they are performed—they require a
variable amount of time. These variable usage rates are best described as
probability distributions. (Chapter 7 discusses probability distributions
in detail.)

• The geographic location of a process is called a station. Entities flow
from one process to the next via routes. The routes can branch out on
the basis of decision points in the process map.

• Finally, because a process may not be able to handle all incoming
entities in a timely fashion, queues occur at each process and can be
measured and modeled.

The team next develops a process map and simulation model for routine
patient flow (exhibit 11.11) in the ED using Arena simulation software (see the
companion website for links to videos detailing this model and its operation).
The team focuses on routine patients rather than those requiring intensive
emergency care because of the high proportion of routine patients seen in
the department. Routine patients are checked in and their self-recorded his-

tory and presenting complaint(s) verified by a nurse.
Then, patients move to an exam/treatment room and,
finally, to the discharge area. Of the ten patients who
arrive at the ED per hour, eight follow this process.

Next, to build a simulation model that accurately reflects this process,
the team needs to determine the probability distributions of treatment time,
admitting time, nurse history time, discharge time, and arrival rate for routine
patients. To determine these probability distributions, team members collect
data on time of arrival in the department and time to perform each step in the
routine patient care process.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 313

Probability distributions are determined using the input analyzer func-
tion in Arena. Input Analyzer takes raw input data and finds the best-fitting
probability distribution for them. Exhibit 11.12 shows the output of Input
Analyzer for 500 observations of treatment time for ED patients requiring
routine care. Input Analyzer suggests that the best-fitting probability distribu-
tion for these data is triangular, with a minimum of 9 minutes, mode of 33
minutes, and maximum of 51 minutes.

Patient
arrives

Triage

Admitting

Patient
history

Nurse
history

Exam and
treatment

Leave ED

Intensive
ED care

Waiting room

Discharge area

Discharge

False

True
Complexity

EXHIBIT 11.11
VVH Emergency
Department
(ED) Initial State
Simulation
Model

Note: Created with Arena simulation software.

Treatment Time (minutes)

12

24

N
um

be
r o

f O
cc

ur
re

nc
es

159 33

EXHIBIT 11.12
Examination
and Treatment
Time Probability
Distribution:
Routine
Emergency
Department
Patients

Healthcare Operat ions Management314

The remaining data are analyzed in the same manner, and the following
best-fitting probability distributions are determined:

• Emergency routine patient arrival rate—exponential (7.5 minutes
between arrivals)

• Triage time—triangular (2, 5, 7 minutes)
• Admitting time—triangular (3, 8, 15 minutes)
• Patient history time—triangular (15, 20, 25 minutes)
• Nurse history time—triangular (5, 11, 15 minutes)
• Exam/treatment time—triangular (14, 36, 56 minutes)
• Discharge time—triangular (9, 19, 32 minutes)

The Arena model simulation is based on 12-hour intervals (2:00 p.m.
to 2:00 a.m.) and replicated 100 times. Note that increasing the number of
replications decreases the half-width and, therefore, gives tighter confidence
intervals. The number of replications needed depends on the desired confi-
dence interval for the outcome variables. However, as the model becomes more
complicated, more replications take more simulation time; this model is fairly
simple, so 100 replications take little time and are sufficient for this purpose.

Most simulation software, including Arena, is capable of using different
arrival rate probability distributions for different times of the day and days of the
week, allowing for varying demand patterns. However, the team believes that
this simple model using only one arrival rate probability distribution represents
the busiest time for the ED, having observed that by 2:00 p.m. on weekdays
no queues are created in either the waiting room or the discharge area.

The results of the simulation are reviewed by the team and compared with
actual data and observations to ensure that the model is, in fact, simulating the
reality of the ED. The team is satisfied that the model accurately reflects reality.

The focus of this simulation is the queuing that occurs in both the waiting
room and the discharge area and the total time in the system. Exhibit 11.13
shows the results of this base (current status) model. On average, a patient
spends 2.4 hours in the ED.

The team next examines the discharge process in depth because patient
waiting time is greatest there. The ED has two rooms devoted to discharge and
uses two nurses to handle all discharge tasks, such as making sure prescriptions
are given and home care instructions are understood. However, because of the
limited number of nurses and exam rooms, queuing is inevitable. In addition,
the patient treatment information must be handed off from the treatment team
to the discharge nurse. The process improvement team simulates having the
discharge process carried out by the examination and treatment team. Because
the examination and treatment team knows the patient information, the handoff
task can be eliminated. The team estimates that this change will save about five

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 315

minutes. To ensure that this is the correct outcome, team members simulate
the new system by eliminating discharge as a separate process.

Team members estimate the probability distribution of the combined
exam/treatment/discharge task by first estimating the probability distribution
for handoff as triangular (4, 5, 7 minutes). The team uses Input Analyzer to
simulate 1,000 observations of exam/treatment time, discharge time, and
handoff time using the previously determined probability distributions for
each. For each observation, it adds exam/treatment time to discharge time and
subtracts handoff time to find total time. Input Analyzer finds the best-fitting

Replications: 100

Total
Time

Waiting
Time

Routine patient

Average
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Value

Maximum
Average

Half-
Width

2.4207 1.7953 1.2004 5.24483.40820.08

Admitting queue
Discharge queue
Exam and treatment queue
Nurse history queue
Triage queue

Average
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Value

Maximum
Average

Half-
Width

0.00526930
0.3972
0.3382

0.01764541
0.06437939

0.00048553
0.06416692
0.04167122
0.00272715
0.01703829

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.2235
2.0531
2.5777
0.3694
0.6506

0.01668610
0.8865
1.1956

0.05309733
0.1402

0.00
0.26
0.38
0.01
0.05

Waiting
Time

Admitting queue
Discharge queue
Exam and treatment queue
Nurse history queue
Triage queue

Average
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Value

Maximum
Average

Half-
Width

0.03458032
2.2481
2.1930
0.1136

0.5394

0.00267040
0.2888
0.2062

0.01298461
0.1145

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

2.0000
13.0000
22.0000

5.0000
10.0000

0.1001
5.1713

9.4408
0.4069
1.7216

0.00
0.26
0.38
0.01
0.05

Instantaneous
Utilization

Discharge nurse 1
Discharge nurse 2
Exam room 1
Exam room 2
Exam room 3
Exam room 4
Financial clerk 1
Financial clerk 2
History nurse 1
History nurse 2
Triage nurse

Average
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Value

Maximum
Average

Half-
Width

0.8285
0.8360
0.8441
0.8329
0.8182
0.8075
0.4615
0.4580
0.5294
0.5240
0.6267

0.6715
0.6673
0.6253
0.6548
0.5358
0.6135
0.3320
0.3286
0.3886
0.3937
0.4861

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000

0.8972
0.9105
0.9497
0.9297
0.9200
0.9156
0.5636
0.5823
0.6796
0.7107
0.8373

0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01

Time Unit: Hours

Queue

Resource

Time

Other

Usage

EXHIBIT 11.13
VVH Emergency
Department
Initial State
Simulation
Model Output

Note: Created with Arena simulation software.

Healthcare Operat ions Management316

probability distribution for the total time for the new process as triangular
(18, 50, 82 minutes).

The team simulates the new process and finds that, under the new
system, patients will spend an average of 2.95 hours in the ED—increasing
the time spent there. However, it will eliminate the need for discharge rooms.
The team decides to investigate the impact of converting the former discharge
rooms to exam rooms and runs a new simulation incorporating this change
(exhibit 11.14). The result of this simulation is shown in exhibit 11.15. Both
the number of patients in the waiting room (examination and treatment queue)
and the amount of time they wait are reduced substantially. The staffing levels
are not changed, as the discharge nurses are now treatment nurses. Physician
staffing also is not increased, as some delay inside the treatment process itself
has always existed due to the need to wait for lab results, resulting in a delayed
final physician diagnosis. Having more patients available for treatment fills this
lab delay time for physicians to perform patient care.

Patient
arrives

Triage

Admitting

Patient
history

Nurse
history

Exam and
treatment

Leave ED

Intensive
ED care

Waiting room

False

True
Complexity

EXHIBIT 11.14
VVH Emergency

Department
(ED) Proposed

Change
Simulation

Model

Note: Created with Arena simulation software.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 317

4:11:35 PM

Replications: 100

Total
Time

Waiting
Time

Routine patient

Average
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Value

Maximum
Average

Half
Width

1.8376 1.5459 1.0063 4.59892.87290.05

Admitting queue
Exam and treatment

and discharge queue
Nurse history queue
Triage queue

Average
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Value

Maximum
Average

Half
Width

0.00519434

0.2039
0.01791752
0.06635691

0.00041085

0.00197293
0.00244500
0.01863876

0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00

0.2235

2.2943
0.3417
0.8065

0.01364095

1.1105
0.07537764

0.2547

0.00

0.04
0.00
0.01

Waiting
Time

Admitting queue
Exam and treatment

and discharge queue
Nurse history queue
Triage queue

Average
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Value

Maximum
Average

Half
Width

0.03400433

1.3571
0.1098
0.5629

0.00218978

0.00838496
0.01120623

0.1227

0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00

3.0000

19.0000
4.0000

11.0000

0.0946

7.8288
0.5716
2.5046

0.00

0.31
0.01
0.08

Instantaneous
Utilization

Exam room 1
Exam room 2
Exam room 3
Exam room 4
Exam room 5
Exam room 6
Financial clerk 1
Financial clerk 2
History nurse 1
History nurse 2
Triage nurse

Average
Minimum
Average

Minimum
Value

Maximum
Value

Maximum
Average

Half
Width

0.7827
0.7644
0.7626
0.7478
0.7859
0.8030
0.4606
0.4529
0.5236
0.5154
0.6226

0.5405
0.5468
0.5577
0.4984
0.5420
0.4990
0.3250
0.2968
0.3642
0.3403
0.4742

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000
1.0000

0.9303
0.9103
0.9052
0.8993
0.9313
0.9472
0.5985
0.6119

0.6766
0.6982
0.8185

0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02

Time Unit: Hours

Values Across All Replications

February 8, 2012
Category Overview

VVH Emergency

Entity

Queue

Resource

Time

Time

Other

Usage

EXHIBIT 11.15
VVH Emergency
Department
(ED) Proposed
Change
Simulation
Model Output

Note: Created with Arena simulation software.

Healthcare Operat ions Management318

The most significant improvement resulting from the process improve-
ment initiative is that total patient throughput time now averages 1.84 hours
(110 minutes). This 33 percent reduction in throughput time exceeds the
team’s goal and is celebrated by VVH’s senior leadership. The summary of
process improvement steps is displayed in exhibit 11.16.

Conclusion

The theory of swift, even flow provides a framework for process improvement
and increased productivity. The efficiency and effectiveness of a process increase
as the speed of flow through the process increases and the variability associated
with that process decreases.

The movement of patients in a healthcare facility is one of the most
critical and visible processes in healthcare delivery. Reducing flow time and
variation in processes results in a number of benefits, including the following:

• Patient satisfaction increases.
• Quality of clinical care improves as patients have reduced waits for

diagnosis and treatment.
• Financial performance improves.

This chapter demonstrates many approaches to the challenges of reducing
flow time and process variation. Starting with the straightforward process map,
many improvements can be found immediately by inspection. In other cases,
the powerful tool of computer-based discrete event simulation can provide a
road map to sophisticated process improvements.

Ensuring quality of care is another critical focus of healthcare organiza-
tions. The process improvement tools and approaches in this chapter may be

Process Improvement Change Throughput Time, Routine Patients

Baseline, before any improvement 165 minutes

Combine admitting functions 155 minutes

Patients enter their own history
into computer

145 minutes

Combine discharge tasks into
examination and treatment
process, and convert discharge
rooms to treatment rooms

110 minutes

EXHIBIT 11.16
Summary of

VVH Emergency
Department
Throughput

Improvement
Project

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 319

used to reduce process variation and eliminate errors. Healthcare organizations
must employ the disciplined approach described in this chapter to achieve the
needed improvements in flow and quality.

Discussion Questions

1. How do you determine which process improvement tools should
be used in a given situation? What is the cost and return of each
approach?

2. Which process improvement tool can have the most powerful impact,
and why?

3. How can barriers to process improvement, such as staff reluctance
to change, lack of capital, technological barriers, or clinical practice
guidelines, be overcome?

4. How can the electronic health record be used to make significant
process improvements for both efficiency and quality increases?

5. Describe several places or times in your organization where people or
objects (paperwork, tests, etc.) wait in line. How do the characteristics
of each example differ?

Exercises

1. Access the National Guideline Clearinghouse (www.guideline.gov/)
and translate one of the guidelines described into a process map. Add
decision points and alternative paths to account for unusual issues that
might occur in the process. (Hint: Use Microsoft Visio or another
similar application to complete this exercise.)

2. Access the following process maps on the
companion website:
• Operating Suite
• Cancer Treatment Clinic
Use basic improvement tools, theory of constraints, Six Sigma, or Lean
tools to determine possible process improvements.

3. The hematology lab manager has received complaints that the
turnaround time for blood tests is too long. Data from the past month
show that the arrival rate of blood samples to one technician in the
lab is five per hour and the service rate is six per hour. Using queuing
theory, and assuming that (a) both rates are exponentially distributed
and (b) the lab is at steady state, determine the following measures:

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Healthcare Operat ions Management320

• Capacity utilization of the lab
• Average number of blood samples in the lab
• Average time that a sample waits in the queue
• Average number of blood samples waiting for testing
• Average time that a blood sample spends in the lab

References

Butterfield, S. 2007. “A New Rx for Crowded Hospitals: Math.” ACP Hospitalist. Published
December. www.acphospitalist.org/archives/2007/12/math.htm#sb1.

Clark, J. J. 2005. “Unlocking Hospital Gridlock.” Healthcare Financial Management 59
(11): 94–104.

Cooper, R. B. 1981. Introduction to Queueing Theory, 2nd edition. New York: North-Holland.
Deming, W. E. 1998. “The Deming Philosophy.” Deming-Network. Accessed June 9, 2006.

http://deming.ces.clemson.edu/pub/den/deming_philosophy.htm.
Devaraj, S., T. T. Ow, and R. Kohli. 2013. “Examining the Impact of Information Technol-

ogy and Patient Flow on Healthcare Performance: A Theory of Swift and Even Flow
(TSEF) Perspective.” Journal of Operations Management 31 (4): 181–92.

Litvak, E. 2003. “Managing Patient Flow: Smoothing OR Schedule Can Ease Capacity
Crunches, Researchers Say.” OR Manager 19 (November): 1, 9–10.

McManus, M., M. Long, A. Cooper, and E. Litvak. 2004. “Queuing Theory Accurately
Models the Need for Critical Care Resources.” Anesthesiology 100 (5): 1271–76.

Rockwell Automation. 2016. Arena home page. Accessed September 21. www.arenasimula-
tion.com/.

Rodi, S. W., M. V. Grau, and C. M. Orsini. 2006. “Evaluation of a Fast Track Unit: Align-
ment of Resources and Demand Results in Improved Satisfaction and Decreased
Length of Stay for Emergency Department Patients.” Quality Management in
Healthcare 15 (3): 163–70.

Sayah, A., M. Lai-Becker, L. Kingsley-Rocker, T. Scott-Long, K. O’Connor, and L. F. Lobon.
2016. “Emergency Department Expansion Versus Patient Flow Improvement: Impact
on Patient Experience of Care.” Journal of Emergency Medicine 50 (2): 339–48.

Schmenner, R. W. 2004. “Service Businesses and Productivity.” Decision Sciences 35 (3):
333–47.

. 2001. “Looking Ahead by Looking Back: Swift, Even Flow in the History of Manu-
facturing.” Production and Operations Management 10 (1): 87–96.

Schmenner, R. W., and M. L. Swink. 1998. “On Theory in Operations Management.”
Journal of Operations Management 17 (1): 97–113.

Simul8 Corporation. 2016. “Process Simulation Software.” Accessed September 21. www.
simul8.com/.

Chapter 11: Process Improvement and Pat ient F low 321

Further Reading

Goldratt, E. M., and J. Cox. 1986. The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement. New York:
North River Press.

Kelton, W., R. Sadowski, and N. Swets. 2009. Simulation with Arena. New York: McGraw-Hill.

CHAPTER

323

SCHEDULING AND CAPACITY MANAGEMENT

Operations Management
in Action

Once upon a time, a patient at Second
Street Family Practice in Auburn, Maine,
had to wait from 60 to 90 days to be seen
for a routine check-up. Then, when the
day of the appointment finally arrived,
the patient might wait nearly 20 minutes
in the waiting room and another 20 for
the exam to begin. But thanks to strong
leadership, impressive teamwork, and
effective tools, patients wanting care
from Second Street, even routine check-
ups, are now seen the same day they call.
The average time patients spend flipping
through magazines in the waiting room
has dropped to around seven minutes; the
exam room wait is down to eight. What’s
more, staff say they like the new system
much better, and patient surveys show
that about 90 percent of patients notice
and are pleased with the changes as well.

[Clinic leadership], who had been
reading and learning about advanced
access scheduling, recognized it as the
antidote for their frustrations. Devel-
oped by Mark Murray, MD, and Cath-
erine Tantau, RN, consultants in Sacra-
mento, California, and promoted by [the
Institute for Healthcare Improvement
(IHI)] in its office practice programs and
on its website, advanced access uses
queuing theory to reengineer the stan-
dard appointment scheduling system,

12
OVE RVI EW

Matching the supply of goods or services to the demand for those

goods or services is a basic operational problem. In a manufactur-

ing environment, inventory can be used to respond to fluctuations

in demand. In the healthcare environment, safety stock can be used

to respond to fluctuations in demand for supplies (see chapter 13),

but stocking healthcare services is not possible. Therefore, capac-

ity must be matched to demand. If capacity is greater than demand,

resources are underutilized and costs are high. Idle staff, equipment,

or facilities increase organizational costs without increasing revenues.

If capacity is lower than demand, patients endure long waits or find

another provider.

To match capacity to demand, organizations can use demand-

influencing strategies or capacity management strategies. Pricing

and promotions are often deployed to influence demand and demand

timing; however, this strategy typically is not viable for healthcare

organizations. In the past, many clinics, hospitals, and health systems

used the demand-leveling strategy of appointment scheduling; more

recently, many have moved to advanced-access scheduling. Capac-

ity management strategies allow the organization to adjust capacity

to meet fluctuating demand; they include using part-time or on-call

employees, cross-training staff, and assigning overtime. Effective and

efficient scheduling of patients, staff, equipment, facilities, or jobs

can help leaders match capacity to demand and ensure that scarce

healthcare resources are used to their fullest extent.

This chapter outlines issues and problems faced in scheduling

and discusses tools and techniques that can be employed in schedul-

ing patients, staff, equipment, facilities, or jobs. Topics covered here

related to scheduling tools and approaches include

• hospital census and resource loading,

• staff scheduling,

• job and operation scheduling and sequencing rules,
(continued)

Healthcare Operat ions Management324

leaving the majority of
slots on any given day
open for patients who
call that day.

The benefits
of advanced access
go beyond improved
scheduling, says IHI
director Marie Schall.
“It improves quality
and continuity,” she
says. “People can get
problems checked
sooner rather than
later, and they see
the same provider vir-
tually every time. We
know that continuity
contributes to better
overall quality.” Schall
says that through its
Breakthrough Series
Collaboratives on
Reducing Delays and
Waiting Times and its
IMPACT network, as
well as its work with the Veterans Health Administration on improving access to
care, IHI has worked with about 3,000 practices to introduce advanced access.

Source: Excerpted from IHI (2012).

Hospital Census and Rough-Cut Capacity Planning

For many healthcare organizations, the admittance rate and number of occupied
beds provide a good indication of the demands being placed on the system.
For hospitals, these numbers often can be measured on the basis of the overall
patient census. Most hospitals report their census daily and hourly to manage
the available beds in the system. However, what many healthcare organizations
fail to understand is that the census also provides a view into the resource needs
to appropriately staff a system. Exhibit 12.1 shows a three-month view of a
census for Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System (VVH). The pattern is

OVE RVI EW (Continued)

• patient appointment scheduling models, and

• advanced-access patient scheduling.

The scheduling of patients is a unique, but important,

subproblem of patient flow. Since the mid-twentieth century, much

patient care delivery has moved from the inpatient setting to the

ambulatory clinic. Because this trend is likely to continue, matching

clinic capacity to patient demand becomes an even more critical

operating skill. Beyond operational considerations, if capacity

management can be deployed to meet a patient’s desired sched-

ule, marketplace advantage can be gained. Therefore, this chapter

focuses on advanced access (same-day scheduling) for ambulatory

patients. Related topics covered in this chapter include

• advantages of advanced access,

• implementation steps, and

• metrics for tracking the operations of advanced-access

scheduling systems.

Many of the operations tools and strategies detailed in

earlier chapters are demonstrated here to show how to optimize

the operations of an advanced-access clinic.

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 325

remarkably similar to most hospitals in that a large amount of variance exists
in the patient population on a daily basis. This variance can become magnified
when observing the census on an hourly basis.

Rough-cut capacity planning is the process of converting the overall
production plan into capacity needs for key resources. For a hospital, it means
planning key resources for the demand schedule. While the day-to-day demand
in healthcare systems is highly variable, the aggregate demand on a month-
to-month basis can be predicted more precisely. When planning resources,
hospital leaders generally consider two types of labor resources: full-time staff
and contractors. By examining the census, an administrator should be able
to determine, on an aggregate basis, the number of contactors needed dur-
ing high-volume months. This approach is an example of rough-cut capacity
planning. But many healthcare systems leave this planning until the need for
additional resources arises. Because they have not paid enough attention to the
required staffing levels to meet demand on an aggregate basis, these systems
are forced to spend unnecessary costs to meet demand.

A hospital administrator may also use the daily census to assist in prepar-
ing workforce schedules on a weekly or daily basis. Exhibit 12.2 shows a spike
in the system at VVH occurring from hour 13 to hour 19, which in most situa-
tions is the middle of the day. Many hospitals still schedule staff using standard
morning, evening, and night shifts. Under that staffing model, VVH doctors
and nurses are ending their shifts at the time of maximum demand on the sys-
tem, resulting in increased potential for errors in handing off patients to new
doctors, long patient wait times, and untimely completion of medical records.

A major cost savings can be gained for hospitals and clinics by simply
matching the resources to the demand patterns in the system. In this case,
staffing many doctors and nurses to overlap the peak times in the middle of
the day is ideal.

Rough-cut
capacity planning
The process of
converting the
overall production
plan into capacity
needs for key
resources.

Time

N
um

be
r o

f P
at

ie
nt

s

EXHIBIT 12.1
Daily Census at
VVH

Healthcare Operat ions Management326

From an operations perspective, this problematic issue is easy to fix.
However, in practice, several obstacles may emerge, such as contractual terms
agreed to by unions and conflicting physician block scheduling.

Staff Scheduling

For minor schedule-optimization problems, where demand is reasonably known
and staffing requirements can be estimated with certainty, mathematical pro-
gramming (chapter 6) may be used to optimize staffing levels and schedules.
As these problems increase in complexity, however, developing and applying
a mathematical programming model becomes time and cost prohibitive. In
those cases, simulation can be used to answer what-if scheduling questions,
such as “What if we added a nurse?” or “What if we cross-trained employees?”
See chapter 11 and the advanced-access section of this chapter for examples of
these types of applications.

A simple example of this type of issue, and how to solve it using linear
programming, is illustrated in the paragraphs that follow. (For solutions to
more complex staffing issues using linear programming, see Matthews [2005]
and Trabelsi, Larbi, and Alouane [2012].)

Solving Riverview Clinic Urgent Care Staffing
Nurses who staff Riverview Urgent Care Clinic (UCC), the after-hours urgent
care facility of VVH’s Riverview Clinic, have been complaining about their
schedules. They would like to work five consecutive days and have two con-
secutive days off every seven days. Different nurses prefer different days off

40

50

60

30

20

10

0

20161284 2319151173 2218141062 211713951 24

Hour

N
um

be
r o

f P
at

ie
nt

s

EXHIBIT 12.2
Hourly Census
at VVH in One

Patient Care
Unit

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 327

and believe that their preferences should be accommodated on the basis of
seniority, whereby the most senior nurses are granted their desired days off first.

Riverview UCC collects patient demand data by day of the week and
knows how many nurses should be on staff each day to meet demand. River-
view UCC managers want to minimize nurse payroll while reducing the nurses’
complaints about their schedules. They decide to apply linear programming
to help determine a solution for this two-pronged problem. Target staffing
levels and salary expense are shown in exhibit 12.3.

First, Riverview UCC needs to determine how many nurses should be
assigned to each of the seven possible schedules (Monday and Tuesday off,
Tuesday and Wednesday off, etc.).

The goal is to minimize weekly salary expense, and the objective func-
tion is set up as follows.

Minimize:

($320 × Su) + ($240 × M) + ($240 × Tu) + ($240 × W)
+ ($240 × Th) + ($240 × F) + ($320 × Sa),

where Su is the number of nurses required on staff for Sundays, M is nurses
needed Mondays, Tu is nurses needed Tuesdays, W is nurses needed Wednes-
days, Th is nurses needed Thursdays, F is nurses needed Fridays, and Sa is
nurses needed Saturdays.

The constraints are the following:

• The number of nurses scheduled each day must be greater than or equal
to the number of nurses needed each day.

Su ≥ 5
M ≥ 4
Tu ≥ 3
W ≥ 3
Th ≥ 3
F ≥ 4
Sa ≥ 6

Linear
programming
A mathematical
technique used to
find the optimal
solution to a linear
problem given a
set of constrained
resources.

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday

Nurses
needed per
day

5 4 3 3 3 4 6

Salary and
benefits per
nurse-day

$320 $240 $240 $240 $240 $240 $320

EXHIBIT12.3
Riverview UCC
Target Staffing
Level and Salary
Expense

Healthcare Operat ions Management328

• The number of nurses assigned to each schedule, where the schedules
are denoted by a letter of the alphabet from A to G, must be greater
than zero and an integer.

Number of nurses for schedule A (B, C, D, E, F, or G) ≥ 0
Number of nurses for schedule A (B, C, D, E, F, or G) = integer

Exhibit 12.4 shows the Excel Solver setup of this problem.
As illustrated in exhibit 12.5, Solver finds that the Riverview UCC needs

to employ six full-time equivalent nurses and should assign one nurse to sched-
ules A, B, C, and D; two nurses to schedule E; and no nurses to schedules F and
G. The total salary expense with this optimal schedule is calculated as follows.

Minimize:

($320 × 5) + ($240 × 4) + ($240 × 4) + ($240 × 4) + ($240 × 3)
+ ($240 × 4) + ($320 × 6) = $8,080 per week.

Next, Riverview UCC needs to determine which nurses to assign to
which schedule on the bases of their preferences and seniority. Each nurse is
asked to rank schedules A through E in order of preference. The nurses’ prefer-
ences on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most preferred schedule, are then
weighted by a seniority factor. Riverview UCC uses as the weighting factor the
number of years a particular nurse has worked at the facility compared with
the number of years the most senior nurse has worked there.

EXHIBIT 12.4
Initial Excel

Solver Setup of
Riverview UCC

Optimization

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 329

The goal is to maximize the nurses’ total weighted preference scores
(WPSs), and the objective function is set up as follows.

Maximize:

Mary’s WPS + Anne’s WPS + Susan’s WPS + Tom’s WPS + Cathy’s WPS
+ Jane’s WPS

The constraints are the following:

• The assignment is binary, meaning that each nurse must be either
assigned or not assigned to a particular schedule.

Mary assigned to schedule A (B, C, D, or E) = 0 or 1
Anne assigned to schedule A (B, C, D, or E) = 0 or 1
Susan assigned to schedule A (B, C, D, or E) = 0 or 1
Tom assigned to schedule A (B, C, D, or E) = 0 or 1
Cathy assigned to schedule A (B, C, D, or E) = 0 or 1
Jane assigned to schedule A (B, C, D, or E) = 0 or 1

• The number of nurses assigned to each schedule must adhere to the
requirements established earlier.

Number of nurses assigned to schedule A (B, C, or D) = 1
Number of nurses assigned to schedule E = 2

• Each nurse can only be assigned to one schedule.
Mary (Anne, Susan, Tom, Cathy, or Jane) A + B + C + D + E = 1

Exhibit 12.5 shows the Excel setup of this problem.

EXHIBIT 12.5
Riverview UCC
Initial Solver
Solution and
Schedule
Preference
Setup

Healthcare Operat ions Management330

As shown in exhibit 12.6, Solver finds that Mary should be assigned to
schedule D (her second choice), Anne to schedule E (her first choice), Susan
to schedule C (her first choice), Tom to schedule E (his first choice), Cathy to
schedule B (her second choice), and Jane to schedule A (her first choice). All of
the nurses now have two consecutive days off every seven days and are assigned
to either their first or their second choice of schedule. Note that even this simple
problem has 20 decision variables and 41 constraints.

Job and Operation Scheduling and Sequencing Rules

Master production scheduling (MPS) is a technique used in most production-
oriented environments that has direct application to the healthcare operations
space. The concept behind MPS is to forecast needs for the future and build
a schedule to fit those needs.

When building a master production schedule, time fences are set up to
help avoid disruptions in the schedule. Typically, time fences depicted as “frozen,”
“slushy,” or “liquid” are established to give the scheduling department informa-
tion as to when a schedule can be adjusted. For example, a surgery center may
aim for a frozen schedule for surgeries scheduled during the following week; a
slushy schedule, where up to 20 percent may be adjusted, for surgeries sched-
uled two to three weeks in advance; and a liquid, or open, schedule for surgeries
scheduled one month or more into the future. By freezing a schedule for a set
period, the surgery center is able to avoid unnecessary interruptions. Interruptions
in scheduling eventually lead to fewer surgeries for a variety of reasons, including
the variance in time related to surgeries, extra setup time of surgery rooms, and
general impact of changing surgeries at the last minute. To handle urgent sur-
geries when using MPS, a hospital should keep some capacity available for these
situations. The net effect of this approach is increased output from the surgery
because the variability associated with urgent surgeries does not affect the MPS.

EXHIBIT 12.6
Riverview UCC

Final Solver
Solution for

Individual
Schedules

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 331

Job and operation scheduling views the problem of how to sequence a
pool of jobs (or patients) through a particular operational activity. For example, a
clinic laboratory constantly receives patient blood samples that need to be tested,
and it must determine in what order it should conduct those tests. Similarly, a
hospital typically has many patients waiting for their surgery to be performed,
and it needs to decide the order in which those surgeries should occur.

The simplest sequencing problems consist of a pool of jobs waiting for
only one resource to become available. Sequencing of those jobs is usually
based on a desire to meet due dates (time at which the job is expected to be
complete) by minimizing the number of jobs that are late, minimizing the
average amount of time by which jobs are late, or minimizing the maximum
late time of any job. Also desirable is to minimize the time jobs spend in the
system or average completion time.

Various sequencing rules, also known as the queuing priority, may be
used to schedule jobs through the system. Commonly used rules include the
following:

• First come, first served (FCFS)—Jobs are sequenced in the same order in
which they arrive.

• Shortest processing time (SPT)—The job that takes the least amount of
time to complete is first, followed by the job that takes the next least
amount time, and so on.

• Earliest due date (EDD)—The job with the earliest due date is first,
followed by the job with the next earliest due date, and so on.

• Slack time remaining—The job with the least amount of slack (time
until due date or processing time) is first, followed by the job with the
next least amount of slack time, and so on.

• Critical ratio—The job with the smallest critical ratio (time until due
date or processing time) is first, followed by the job with the next
smallest critical ratio, and so on.

When only one resource or operation is available through which the
jobs may be processed, the SPT rule minimizes average completion time, and
the EDD rule minimizes average lateness and maximum lateness. However,
no single rule accomplishes both objectives. When jobs (or patients) must
be processed via a series of resources or operations, with different possible
sequencing at each, the situation becomes complex and applying a particular
rule does not result in the same outcome for the entire system as for the single
resource. Simulation may be used to evaluate these complex systems and helps
determine optimum sequencing.

For a busy resource, the SPT rule is often applied. It allows completion
of a greater number of jobs in a shorter amount of time than do the other
rules, but it may result in some jobs with long completion times never being

Sequencing rules
Heuristic rules that
indicate the order
in which jobs are
processed from
a queue. Also
known as queuing
priority.

Healthcare Operat ions Management332

finished. To alleviate this problem, the SPT rule may be used in combination
with other rules. For example, in some emergency departments (EDs), less
severe cases (those with a shorter processing time) are separated from more
severe cases and fast-tracked to free up examination rooms quickly.

For time-sensitive operational activities, in which lateness is not toler-
ated, the EDD rule is appropriate. Because it is the easiest to apply, the FCFS
rule is typically used when the resource has excess capacity and no jobs will be
late. In a Lean environment, sequencing rules become irrelevant because the
ideal size of the pool of jobs is reduced to one and a kanban system (a form of
FCFS) can be used to pull jobs through the system (chapter 10).

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Laboratory Sequencing
Rules
A technician recently has left the laboratory at VVH, and the lab manager,
Jessica Simmons, does not believe she can find a qualified replacement for at
least one month. This situation has greatly increased the workload in the lab,
and physicians have been complaining that their requested blood work is not
being completed in a timely manner.

In the past, Jessica has divided the blood testing among the technicians
and requested they complete the tests on an FCFS basis. She is now consider-
ing a different sequencing rule to satisfy the physicians. In anticipation of this
change, she has asked each physician to enter a desired completion time on each
request for blood testing. To investigate the effects of changing the sequenc-
ing rules, she analyzes, under various scheduling rules, the first five requests
completed by one of the technicians. For five jobs, 120 sequences are possible
for their completion. Exhibit 12.7 shows the time to complete each blood work
sample and the time of completion requested by the physician.

Exhibit 12.8 indicates the order in which jobs will be processed and
results under different sequencing rules, and exhibit 12.9 compares the various
sequencing rules. The FCFS rule performs poorly on all measures. The SPT

Sample
Processing Time

(minutes)
Due Time

(minutes from now) Slack CR

A 50 100 100 – 50 = 50 100  50 = 2.00

B 100 160 160 – 100 = 60 160  100 = 1.60

C 20 50 50 – 20 = 30 50  20 = 2.50

D 80 120 120 – 80 = 40 120  180 = 1.50

E 60 80 80 – 60 = 20 80  60 = 1.33

Note: CR = critical ratio.

EXHIBIT 12.7
VVH Laboratory

Blood Test
Information

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 333

Sequence
Start
Time

Processing
Time

Completion
Time Due Time Tardiness

FCFS
A 0 50 50 100
B 50 100 150 160
C 150 20 170 50 170 – 50 = 120
D 170 80 250 120 250 – 120 = 130
E 250 60 310 80 310 – 80 = 230

Average 186 (120 + 130 + 230)  5
= 96

SPT
C 0 20 20 50
A 20 50 70 100
E 70 60 130 80 130 – 80 = 50
D 130 80 210 120 210 – 120 = 90
B 210 100 310 160 310 – 160 = 150

Average 148 (50 + 90 + 150)  5
= 58

EDD
C 0 20 20 50
E 20 60 80 80
A 80 50 130 100 130 – 100 = 30
D 130 80 210 120 210 – 120 = 90
B 210 100 310 160 310 – 160 = 150

Average 150 (30 + 90 + 150)  5
= 54

STR
E 0 60 60 80
C 60 20 80 50 80 – 50 = 30
D 80 80 160 120 160 – 120 = 40
A 160 50 210 100 210 – 100 = 110
B 210 100 310 160 310 – 160 = 150

Average 164 (30 + 40 + 110 + 150)  5
= 66

CR
E 0 60 60 80
D 60 80 140 120 140 – 120 = 20
B 140 100 240 160 240 – 160 = 80
A 240 50 290 100 290 – 100 = 190
C 290 20 310 50 310 – 50 = 260

Average 208 (20 + 80 + 190 + 260)  5
= 110

Note: All times shown in exhibit are in minutes. CR = critical ratio; EDD = earliest due date; FCFS =
first come, first served; SPT = shortest processing time; STR = slack time remaining.

EXHIBIT 12.8
VVH Laboratory
Blood Test
Sequencing
Rules

Healthcare Operat ions Management334

rule minimizes average completion time, and the EDD rule minimizes aver-
age tardiness. Under these two rules, three jobs are tardy and the maximum
tardiness is 150 minutes. After considering these results, Jessica implements the
EDD rule for laboratory blood tests to minimize the number of tardy jobs and
the average tardiness of jobs. She hopes adopting this rule reduces physician
complaints until a new technician can be hired.

Patient Appointment Scheduling Models

Appointment scheduling models attempt to minimize patient waiting time
while maximizing utilization of the resource (clinician, machine, etc.) the
patients are waiting to access. Soriano (1966) classifies appointment schedul-
ing systems into four basic types: block appointment, individual appointment,
mixed block-individual appointment, and other.

A block appointment scheme schedules the arrival of all patients at the
start of a clinic session. Patients are usually seen FCFS, but other sequencing
rules can be used in block appointment scheduling. This type of scheduling
system maximizes utilization of the clinician, but patients may experience long
wait times.

An individual appointment scheme assigns different, equally spaced
appointment times to each patient. In a common modification of this type of
system, different appointment lengths are available and assigned on the basis
of the type of patient. This system reduces patient waiting time but decreases
utilization of the clinician; in other words, increasing the interval between
arrivals results in a reduction of both waiting time and utilization.

A mixed block-individual appointment scheme schedules a group of
patients to arrive at the start of the clinic session, followed by equally spaced

Sequencing
Rule

Average Completion
Time

Average
Tardiness

Number of
Tardy Jobs

Maximum
Tardiness

FCFS 186 96 3* 230

SPT 148* 58 3* 150*

EDD 150 54* 3* 150*

STR 164 66 4 150*

CR 208 110 4 260

*Best values.

Note: All times shown in exhibit are in minutes. CR = critical ratio; EDD = earliest due date; FCFS =
first come, first served; SPT = shortest processing time; STR = slack time remaining.

EXHIBIT 12.9
Comparison of

VVH Blood Test
Sequencing

Rules

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 335

appointment times for the remainder of the session. This type of system can
be used to balance the competing goals of increased utilization and decreased
waiting time.

Finally, other appointment schemes are modifications of the first three
types.

Simulation has been used to study the performance of various appoint-
ment scheduling models and rules. Although no scheduling rule or scheme has
been found to be universally superior, the Bailey-Welch rule (Bailey and Welch
1952) performs well under most conditions. This rule schedules two patients
at the beginning of a clinic session, followed by equally spaced appointment
times for the remainder of the session.

Chow and colleagues (2011) demonstrate how to reduce the number
of surgery cancellations by using an advanced computer simulation model to
improve the allocation of open surgical slots in the appointment system. Using
Monte Carlo simulation techniques, they increased surgical volume by more
than 5 percent and reduced the number of overcapacity bed days by more
than 9 percent.

Kaandorp and Koole (2007a, 2007b) developed a mathematic model,
called the Optimal Outpatient Scheduling tool, to determine an optimal sched-
ule using a weighted average of expected waiting times of patients, idle time
of the clinician, and tardiness (the probability that the clinician has to work
later than scheduled multiplied by the average amount of added time). This
tool uses simulation to compare the optimal schedule found using the model
to a user-defined schedule.

Riverview Clinic Appointment Schedule
Physicians at VVH’s Riverview Clinic typically see patients for six consecutive
hours each day. Each appointment takes an average of 20 minutes; therefore,
each clinician is scheduled to see 18 patients per day. The patient no-show
rate is 2 percent. Currently, Riverview uses an individual appointment scheme
with appointments scheduled every 20 minutes. However, clinicians have been
complaining that they often have to work late but are idle at various points
during the day. Riverview decides to use the Optimal Outpatient Scheduling
tool (Kaandorp and Koole 2007b) to determine if another scheduling model
can alleviate these complaints without increasing patient waiting time to an
unacceptable level.

Exhibit 12.10 shows the results of this analysis when waiting time weight
is 1.5, idle time weight is 0.2, and tardiness weight is 1.0. The optimal schedule
follows the Bailey-Welch rule. Under this rule, patient waiting is increased by
five minutes, but both idleness and tardiness are decreased. Riverview Clinic
leaders do not believe that the additional waiting time is unacceptable and
decide to implement this new appointment scheduling scheme.

Healthcare Operat ions Management336

EXHIBIT 12.10
Riverview Clinic

Appointment
Scheduling

Source: Kaandorp and Koole (2007b). Copyright © 2007 Guido Kaandorp and Ger Koole.

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 337

Advanced-Access Patient Scheduling
Advanced Access for an Operating and Market Advantage
In the early 1990s, Mark Murray, MD, and Catherine Tantau, RN, were among
the early adopters of advanced-access scheduling at Kaiser Permanente in
Northern California. Their goal was to eliminate long patient waits for appoint-
ments and bottlenecks in clinic operations (Singer 2001). The principles they
developed and refined have now been implemented by many leading healthcare
organizations globally.

Because most clinics today use traditional scheduling systems, long wait
times are prevalent and appointments may only be available weeks, or even months,
into the future. The further in advance that visits are scheduled, the greater
the fail (no-show) rate becomes. To compensate, providers double-book or
even triple-book appointment slots. Long delays and queues occur when all the
patients scheduled actually appear for the same appointment slot. This problem
is compounded by patients who have urgent needs requiring that they be seen
immediately. These patients are either worked into the schedule or sent to an ED,
decreasing both continuity of care for the patient and revenue to the clinic. At the
ED, patients are frequently told to see their primary care physician (PCP) in one
to three days, further complicating the scheduling problem at the physician office.

Advanced access is implemented by beginning each day with a large
portion of each provider’s schedule open for urgent, routine, and follow-up
appointments. Patients are seen when they want to be seen. This scheme dra-
matically reduces the fail rate, as patients do not have to remember clinic visits
they booked long ago. Because no double or triple booking occurs, patients
are seen on time and schedules run smoothly. Clinics using advanced access can
provide patients with the convenience of walk-in or urgent care, with the added
advantage of maintaining continuity of care with their own doctors and clinics.

Parente, Pinto, and Barber (2005) studied the implementation of
advanced-access scheduling in a large midwestern clinic with a patient panel
of 10,000. Following implementation, the average number of days between
calling for an appointment and being seen by a doctor decreased from 18.7 to
11.8. However, the most significant finding was that 91.4 percent of patients
saw their own PCP following implementation of the system, as opposed to
69.8 percent pre-implementation.

Implementing Advanced Access
Changing from a long-standing—albeit flawed—scheduling system to advanced
access is challenging. However, an organization can increase its probability of
success by following a few well-prescribed steps. In a study of large urban public
hospitals, Singer (2001) developed the following methodology to implement
advanced access.

Advanced-access
scheduling
A method of
scheduling
outpatient
appointments that
provides open time
slots every day for
seeing patients
on the same day
they request an
appointment. Also
known as same-
day scheduling.

Healthcare Operat ions Management338

Obtain Buy-In
Leadership is key to making this major change. The advanced-access system
must be supported by senior leaders as well as providers. Touring other clinics
that have implemented advanced access may help these groups understand
how this system can work successfully.

For large systems, starting small in one or two clinical settings is best.
Once initial operating problems are resolved and clinic staff are expressing posi-
tive feelings about the change, advanced access can be carefully implemented
in additional clinics in the system.

Predict Demand
The first quantitative step in implementation is to measure and predict demand
from patients. For each day during a study period, demand is calculated as the
number of patients requesting appointments (today or in the future), walk-in
patients, patients referred from urgent care clinics or EDs, and calls deflected
to other providers. After initial demand calculations are performed, additional
factors may be included, such as day of the week, seasonality, demand for same-
day versus scheduled appointments, and even clinical characteristics of patients.

Predict Capacity
The capacity of the clinic needs to be determined once demand is calculated.
In general, capacity is the sum of appointment slots available each day. Capacity
can vary dramatically from day to day, as providers usually have obligations for
their time in addition to seeing patients in the clinic. Determining whether a
clinic’s capacity can meet expected demand is relatively easy using Little’s law
(described in detail in chapter 11).

That said, true capacity may not be readily apparent. Singer (2001)
reports that, prior to close examination, leaders at many public hospital clinics
felt that demand exceeded capacity in their operations. However, several of
these clinics were able to find hidden capacity in their systems by using provid-
ers effectively (e.g., by minimizing their paperwork) and converting storage
space to examination areas.

Another opportunity to improve the capacity of a clinic is to standardize
and minimize the length of visit times. A clinic with high variability in appoint-
ment times may find that it has many small blocks of unused time.

Assess Operations
The implementation of advanced access provides the opportunity to review and
improve the core patient flow and operations in a clinic. The tools and tech-
niques of process mapping and process improvement, particularly value stream
mapping and the theory of constraints, should be applied before advanced
access is implemented.

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 339

Work Down the Backlog
Working down the backlog is one of the most challenging tasks in implement-
ing advanced access, as providers are required to see more patients per day
than usual until they have caught up to same-day access. For example, each
provider may need to work one extra hour per day and see three additional
patients until the backlog is eliminated.

The number of days needed to work down a backlog can be determined
using this equation:

Days to work down backlog = Current backlog ÷ Increase in capacity,

where current backlog equals the number of appointments on the books divided
by the average number of patients seen per day, and increase in capacity is the
new service rate (patients per day) divided by the old service rate minus 1.

Go Live
Once a clinic has completed the above steps, it is almost ready to go live with
its advanced-access scheduling system. However, it must first determine how
many appointment slots to reserve for same-day access. Singer and Regenstein
(2003) report that public hospital clinics leave 40 percent to 60 percent of
their slots available for same-day access while other types of clinics leave up to
75 percent of slots available.

Educating patients in anticipation of the shift to advanced access is
important, as many will be surprised by the ability to see a provider the day
they request an appointment. Many elderly patients may actually decline this
option, as they may need more time to prepare for the appointment or arrange
transportation to it.

No clinic operates in a completely stable environment, so prospectively
developing contingency plans is useful. Contingencies can range from the
unexpected, such as a provider being ill or called away on an emergency, to
the predictable, such as increases in demand, as for routine physicals in the
weeks preceding the start of school. Good contingency planning ensures the
smooth and efficient operation of an advanced-access system.

Metrics for Evaluating Advanced Access
Gupta and colleagues (2006) developed the following set of key indicators that
can be used to evaluate the performance of advanced-access scheduling systems:

• PCP match—percentage of same-day patients who see their own PCP
• PCP coverage—percentage of same-day patients seen by any physician
• Wait time for next appointment (or third next available appointment)—

for example, if you are calling on Monday and an appointment is

Healthcare Operat ions Management340

available on Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday, the wait time for the third
next available appointment is five days (Friday)

• Good backlog—appointments scheduled in advance because of patient
preference

• Bad backlog—appointments waiting because of lack of slots

Most well-functioning advanced-access systems have high PCP match and
PCP coverage. Depending on patient mix and preferences, the good backlog
may be relatively large and still not be problematic, but a large or growing
bad backlog can signal that capacity or operating systems in the clinic need to
be improved.

Fears About Advanced Access and Their Resolution
Pointing out the realities of same-day scheduling can help reduce physicians’ fears
about change and help them make an effective adjustment to the new system.
Gregg Broffman, MD, medical director of the 110-physician Lifetime Health
Medical Group in Rochester and Buffalo, New York, whose group adopted
same-day scheduling in the late 1990s, reported the following three common
fears that physicians experience but that actually are unjustified (Olsen 2012):

• Insatiable demand. Physicians worry that opening their schedule will
leave them swamped with work, but this is a false expectation. By
carefully measuring and predicting supply and demand, advanced access
ensures adequate coverage and can help determine the need to hire new
clinicians to handle the workload.

• Fewer encounters. Use of same-day scheduling has been shown to
decrease the number of annual encounters with individual patients.
At the same time, it boosts the likelihood that patients will see their
personal physician, rather than be worked in with the first available
clinician. As a result, patients are more satisfied with their visits than
they would be without advanced access. Furthermore, clinical outcomes
rise while costs decrease, because a person’s regular practitioner is
less likely to order unnecessary tests or prescribe medication than is a
clinician who is unfamiliar with the patient’s history.

• Lower revenue. Decreased volume might suggest a dip in practice
revenue, but the opposite has proven true. Clinicians who initially saw
a 10 percent to 15 percent drop in encounters experienced about an 8
percent increase in relative value units, which are used to measure the
robustness (or “dollar value”) of an office visit. For example, when a
diabetic patient makes an unplanned visit, physicians can look ahead
to her next scheduled appointment and “max pack” the initial visit by

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 341

performing the future checkup that day. The visit can be coded at the
higher level allowed by a more complicated encounter, and the max
packing leaves an appointment open in two weeks to see a new patient.

Conclusion

Advanced-access scheduling is an efficient and patient-friendly method of sched-
uling the delivery of ambulatory care. However, implementing and maintaining
this and other capacity management techniques are difficult unless leadership
and staff are committed to their success.

Discussion Questions

1. What job sequencing rule do you see most often in healthcare? Why?
Can you think of any additional job sequencing rules not described in
this text?

2. How could advanced-access techniques be used for the following types
of facilities?
a. An ambulatory surgery center
b. A freestanding imaging center

3. What are the consequences of using advanced access in a multispecialty
clinic? How might these tools be applied to provide same-day
scheduling?

4. Can advanced-access techniques be used with appointment scheduling
schemes? Why or why not?

Exercises

1. Two of the nurses (Mary and Tom) at Riverview UCC have decided to
work part time rather than their previous full-time schedule. Each
prefers to work only two (consecutive) days per week. Once they
become part-time employees, salary and benefits per nurse-day for these
nurses will be reduced to $160 on weekdays and $220 on weekend
days. Considering this savings, Riverview UCC can hire an additional
full-time nurse if needed. Should Riverview UCC agree to the two
nurses’ request? If the clinic agrees, will additional nurses need to be
hired? Assuming that part-time nurses and any new hires accept any
schedule offered by Riverview UCC and that preferences for the

Healthcare Operat ions Management342

remainder of the nurses are the same as stated in the chapter, what new
schedule would you recommend for each nurse?

2. The VVH radiology department currently uses FCFS to determine
how to sequence patient X-rays. On a typical day, the department
collects patient X-ray data, and these data are available on the book’s

companion website. Use the data to compare
various sequencing rules. Assuming these data
are representative, what rule should the radiology
department adopt for sequencing, and why?

3. Use the Optimal Outpatient Scheduling tool (Kaandorp and Koole
2007b), provided on the companion website, to compare two
appointment scheduling schemes—individual appointments and optimal
scheduling—under the following assumptions. For the individual
scheduling scheme, assume an 8-hour day that can be divided into
10-minute time blocks (48 time intervals), a 15-minute service time for
patients, 24 patients seen according to the individual appointment
scheme (a patient is scheduled to be seen every 20 minutes), and 5
percent no-shows. For the small neighborhood optimal schedule,
assume a waiting time weight of 1, an idle time weight of 1, and a
tardiness weight of 1. What are the differences in the two schedules?
Which would you choose? Why? Now, increase the waiting time weight
to 3 and recompute the small neighborhood optimal schedule. How is
this optimal schedule different from the previous one? Finally, change
the service time to 20 minutes and compare the individual appointment

schedule scheme to the small neighborhood
optimal schedule with waiting time weights of 1
and 3. Which schedule would you choose, and
why?

4. A clinic wants to work down its backlog to implement advanced access.
The clinic currently has 1,200 booked appointments and sees 100
patients a day. The physician staff have agreed to extend their schedules
and can now see 110 patients per day. What is their current backlog,
and how many days will it take to reduce it to zero?

References

Bailey, N. T. J., and J. D. Welch. 1952. “Appointment Systems in Hospital Outpatient
Departments.” Lancet 259: 1105–8.

Chow, V. S., M. L. Puterman, N. Salehirad, W. Huang, and D. Atkins. 2011. “Reducing
Surgical Ward Congestion Through Improved Surgical Scheduling and Uncapacitated
Simulation.” Production and Operations Management 20 (3): 418–30.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 12: Schedul ing and Capacity Management 343

Gupta, D., S. Potthoff, D. Blowers, and J. Corlett. 2006. “Performance Metrics for Advanced
Access.” Journal of Healthcare Management 51 (4): 246–59.

Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI). 2012. “Advanced Access: Reducing Waits,
Delays, and Frustrations in Maine.” Accessed October 4, 2016. www.ihi.org/
resources/Pages/ImprovementStories/AdvancedAccessReducingWaitsDelaysand
FrustrationinMaine.aspx.

Kaandorp, G. C., and G. Koole. 2007a. “Optimal Outpatient Appointment Scheduling.”
Health Care Management Science 10 (3): 217–29.

. 2007b. “Optimal Outpatient Appointment Scheduling Tool.” Accessed June 24.
http://obp.math.vu.nl/healthcare/software/ges.

Matthews, C. H. 2005. “Using Linear Programming to Minimize the Cost of Nurse Per-
sonnel.” Journal of Healthcare Finance 32 (1): 37–49.

Parente, D. H., M. B. Pinto, and J. C. Barber. 2005. “A Pre-Post Comparison of Service
Operational Efficiency and Patient Satisfaction Under Open Access Scheduling.”
Health Care Management Review 30 (3): 220–28.

Singer, I. A. 2001. Advanced Access: A New Paradigm in the Delivery of Ambulatory Care
Services. Washington, DC: National Association of Public Hospitals and Health
Systems.

Singer, I. A., and M. Regenstein. 2003. Advanced Access: Ambulatory Care Redesign and
the Nation’s Safety Net. Washington, DC: National Association of Public Hospitals
and Health Systems.

Soriano, A. 1966. “Comparison of Two Scheduling Systems.” Operations Research 14 (3):
388–97.

Trabelsi, S., R. Larbi, and A. Alouane. 2012. “Linear Integer Programming for Home
Health Care.” Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing 100 (2): 143–51.

CHAPTER

345

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

Operations Management in
Action

Trinity Health, a multisite healthcare sys-
tem based in Livonia, Michigan, reports
that recently adopted aggressive supply
chain management techniques will save the
organization $20 million in costs. This cost
decrease is being achieved largely through a
relentless reduction of redundant inventory
across the system and consolidation of many
of its practices into efficiently streamlined
services.

The central focus of the efforts at
Trinity was to reduce the inventory in the
supply chain. Previously, fulfilling the sup-
ply preferences of physicians and nurses
led to increased SKUs [stock keeping units]
(representing individual products) and total
dollars of inventory in the system. “As we’re
bringing more organizations together, we
naturally want to take advantage of econo-
mies of scale,” says Lou Fierens, senior vice
president overseeing supply chain at Trinity.
“We had to rigorously reduce the amount
of SKUs that we use inside the hospital”
and centralize procurement of the medical
goods, he says. This centralization gives
the system better insights into inventory
usage patterns across the entire system and
the ability to adjust purchasing practices to
take advantage of economies of scale and
improve availability of inventory throughout
the system.

13
OVE RVI EW

In the current world of healthcare and healthcare reform, the

supply chain is rarely discussed as a source of improvement and

cost savings. However, health spending related to the supply

chain represents a substantial opportunity to save capital. A

groundbreaking study indicates a potential savings of 2 percent

to 8 percent of overall operating costs with an effective sup-

ply chain for tangible goods in hospitals and health systems

(McKone-Sweet, Hamilton, and Willis 2005). Johnson and Teplitz

(2009) demonstrated that procurement costs can be reduced

by more than 10 percent and quantity of items purchased by

more than 20 percent. With many hospital budgets exceeding

$500 million, this savings represents an enormous impact on an

organization’s bottom line.

As a result, efficient and effective supply chain manage-

ment (SCM) is increasingly important in healthcare. This chapter

introduces the concept of SCM and the various tools, techniques,

and theories that can enable supply chain optimization. The major

topics covered include the following:

• SCM basics

• Tools for tracking and managing inventory

• Forecasting

• Inventory models

• Inventory systems

• Procurement and vendor relationship management

• Strategic SCM

After completing this chapter, readers should have a

basic understanding of SCM. This knowledge will help them

determine how to apply SCM in their organizations and enable

them to employ SCM-related tools, techniques, and theories to

optimize supply chains.

Healthcare Operat ions Management346

The healthcare system is able to increase cash flow and reduce costs by
increasing the inventory turnover in the system. The increase in inventory turnover
reduces the amount of time between paying for inventory and receiving revenue
from that inventory. These supply chain practices make a tremendous impact on
the profitability of the healthcare systems.

Source: Adapted and excerpted from Chao (2016).

Supply Chain Management

The supply chain includes all of the processes involved in moving supplies and
equipment from the manufacturer to patient care areas. Supply chain manage-
ment is the handling and oversight of all activities and processes related to both
upstream vendors and downstream customers in the value chain. Because SCM
requires the effective management of relationships outside as well as inside an
organization, this discipline constitutes a broad field of thought.

SCM aims to reduce costs and increase efficiencies associated with the
supply chain. This effort carries substantial implications, as Duffy (2009)
indicates that the average hospital can assume its expenditure on supplies, and
on labor to manage supplies, is approximately 25 percent of its total operat-
ing budget.

Effective SCM is enabled by new technologies as well as “old” meth-
odologies for reducing supply-associated costs and effort and improving the
efficiency of supply processes. Many techniques used to improve supply chain
performance in other industries are applicable to healthcare. They may include
technology-enabled solutions, such as electronic procurement, radio-frequency
identification (RFID), bar coding, point-of-use data entry and retrieval, and
data warehousing and management. These technologies have been used in
other industries, and healthcare organizations increasingly find that they, too,
can reduce costs and increase safety by using them.

A systems view of the supply chain can lead to an enhanced understanding
of processes and how best to improve and optimize them. SCM is focused on
managing relationships with vendors and customers to render the entire chain
(rather than just pieces of it) as efficient as possible, and it results in benefits
for all members of the chain.

For SCM to be effective, reliable and accurate data are required to deter-
mine where the greatest improvements and gains can be made by improving
the supply chain.

Supply chain
management
The management
of all supplier,
vendor, and
distribution
activities related
to the production
of value to end
consumers.

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 347

Tracking and Managing Inventory

Inventory is the stock of items held by the organization either for sale or to
support the delivery of a service. In healthcare organizations, inventory typi-
cally includes supplies and pharmaceuticals. This stock allows organizations
to cope with variations in supply and demand while making cost-effective
ordering decisions.

Inventory management helps determine how much inventory to hold,
when to order, and how much to order. Effective and efficient inventory
management requires a classification system; an inventory tracking system; a
reliable forecast of demand; knowledge of lead times; and reasonable estimates
of holding, ordering, and shortage costs.

Inventory Classification Systems
Not all inventory is equal: Some items may be critical for the organization’s
operations, some may be costly or relatively inexpensive, and some may be
used in large volumes while others are seldom needed. A classification system
can enable organizations to manage inventory effectively by allowing them to
focus on the most important inventory items and place less emphasis on those
items of low importance.

The ABC classification system divides inventory items into three catego-
ries on the basis of the Pareto principle. Vilfredo Pareto studied the distribution
of wealth in nineteenth-century Milan and found that 80 percent of the wealth
was controlled by 20 percent of the people (Femia and Marshall 2012). This
same idea of the vital few and the trivial many is found in quality management
(chapter 9) and sales (80 percent of sales come from 20 percent of customers).

In ABC classification, the A items have a high-dollar volume (70–80
percent) but account for only 5–20 percent of items, B items have moderate-
dollar (30 percent) and -item (15 percent) volume, and C items are low-dollar
(5–15 percent) and high-item (50–65 percent) volume. The classification of
items is not related to their unit cost; an A item may have high-dollar volume
because of high usage and low cost or because of high cost and low usage.
Items vital to the organization should be assigned to the A category even if
their dollar volume is low to moderate.

The A items are the most important and, therefore, the most closely
managed. The B and C items are less important and less closely managed. In a
hospital setting, pacemakers are an example of A items and facial tissue might
be a C item. The A items are likely ordered more often than B and C items,
and their inventory accuracy is checked more often. These items are good
candidates for bar coding and point-of-use systems. The C items do not need

Healthcare Operat ions Management348

to be as closely managed, and often, a two-bin system (discussed later in this
chapter) is used for their management and control.

Inventory Tracking Systems
An effective inventory management system requires a means of determining
how much of a particular item is available. In the past, inventory records were
updated manually and typically were not very accurate. Bar coding and point-
of-use systems have eliminated much of the data input inaccuracy, but inven-
tory records are still imperfect. A physical count must usually be performed
to ensure that the actual and recorded amounts are the same.

Although many organizations perform inventory counts on a periodic
basis (e.g., once a month), cycle counting is a more helpful technique in ensur-
ing accuracy and eliminating errors. Highly accurate inventory records not only
enable efficient inventory management but also help eliminate the hoarding
that occurs when providers are concerned an item will be unavailable when
needed. In a typical cycle counting system, a physical inventory is performed
on a rotating schedule on the basis of item classification. The A items might
be counted every day, whereas C items are counted once a month.

Electronic medication orders and matching allow an organization to
track demand and improve patient safety—the patient and order are matched
at the time of administration. Rules can be set up in the system to alert provid-
ers to adverse drug interactions and thus eliminate errors. Systems are being
developed that bring complete, current patient records to the bedside; the
ready availability of patient and drug history can improve the quality and safety
of the care delivered.

Radio-Frequency Identification
RFID is a tool for identifying objects, collecting data about them, and storing
those data in a computer system with little human involvement. RFID tags
are similar to bar codes, but they emit a data signal that can be read without
actually scanning the tag. RFID tags can also be used to determine the location
of the object to which they are attached. However, using RFID tags is more
expensive than bar coding.

BJC HealthCare, with hospitals in Illinois and Missouri, uses RFID
to keep track of expensive equipment and supplies in the system. The RFID
technology allows the organization to collect data and use those data to
build increasingly effective inventory control systems. BJC has reported a 23
percent reduction in its inventory as a result of using the RFID technology
(Chao 2015).

PinnacleHealth Harrisburg (Pennsylvania) Hospital has also successfully
implemented RFID technology to track and locate expensive medical equip-
ment (Wright 2007). The system can be queried to locate a particular piece of

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 349

equipment rather than staff having to search the hospital for it. The hospital’s
real-time asset-tracking program saved PinnacleHealth $900,000 in its first 12
months of deployment (Radianse 2016).

Warehouse Management
Warehouse management systems enable healthcare organizations to optimize
operations, thereby decreasing their storage and facility costs. Functions such as
bar coding and point-of-use systems help reduce the labor needed by automating
data entry in the receiving area; automations such as these also reduce errors,
allowing for more accurate determination of the inventory held. Information
about demand trends at the organization, if available at the warehouse or stor-
age facility, can be used to organize inventory so that the heavily demanded
items are easily accessible. This process can significantly reduce labor costs
associated with the storage facility.

Demand Forecasting

Knowledge of demand and demand variation in the system enables improved
demand forecasting, which, in turn, can allow inventory reductions and enhance
the probability that an item is available when needed. Bar coding and point-
of-use systems allow organizations to track when and how many supplies are
consumed, to use that information to forecast demand organization-wide, and
to plan how to meet that demand effectively in the future.

Forecasting, or time series analysis, is used to predict what will happen in
the future on the basis of data obtained at set intervals in the past. For example,
forecasting can be used to predict the number of patients who will be seen in
the emergency department in the next year (or month or day) based on the
number of patients seen there in the past. Time series analysis accounts for the
fact that data points collected over time may be related to one another and,
therefore, violate the assumptions of linear regression. Forecasting methods
range from simple to complex. Here, we describe the simpler methods; only a
brief discussion of the more complicated methods is provided.

Averaging Methods
All averaging methods assume that the variable of interest is stable or station-
ary—not growing or declining over time and not subject to seasonal or cyclical
variation.

Simple Moving Average
A simple moving average (SMA) takes the last p-values and averages them to
forecast the value in the next period:

Healthcare Operat ions Management350

=
+ + +− − −F

D D D

p
,t

t t t p1 2

where Ft = forecast for period t (or the coming period), Dt–1 = value in the
previous time period, and p = number of time periods.

Weighted Moving Average
In contrast to SMA, where all values from the past are given equal weight, a
weighted moving average (WMA) weights each previous time period. Typi-
cally, the more recent periods are assumed to be more relevant and are assigned
greater weight:

Ft = w1Dt–1 + w2Dt-2 + . . . + wpDt–p,

where Ft = forecast for period t (or the coming period), Dt–1 = value in the
previous time period, wp = weight for time period p, and w1

+ w2
+ . . . + wp

= 1.

Exponential Smoothing
The problem with the previous two methods, SMA and WMA, is that a large
amount of historical data is required to compute the solutions. With single
exponential smoothing (SES), the oldest data are eliminated once new data
have been added. The forecast is calculated by using the previous forecast as
well as the previous actual value with a weighting or smoothing factor, alpha
(α). Alpha can never be greater than 1, and higher values of alpha put more
weight on the most recent periods:

Ft = αDt-1 + (1 − α)Ft-1,

where Ft = forecast for period t (or the coming period), Dt–1 = value in the
previous time period, and α = smoothing constant ≤ 1.

Trend, Seasonal, and Cyclical Models
Holt’s Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Technique
SES assumes that the data fluctuate around a reasonably stable mean; that is, no
trend or consistent pattern of growth or decline is present. If the data contain
a trend, Holt’s trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model can be used.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing works much like simple smooth-
ing, except that two components—level and trend—must be updated each
period. The level is a smoothed estimate of the value of the data at the end of
each period, and the trend is a smoothed estimate of average growth at the
end of each period. Again, the weighting or smoothing factors, α and delta

Single exponential
smoothing (SES)
A simple
forecasting model
that smooths data
in a time series to
predict the future.

Trend-adjusted
exponential
smoothing
An extension of a
single exponential
smoothing model
that accounts
for a trend when
smoothing the
data.

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 351

(δ), can never exceed 1, and higher values put more weight on more recent
time periods:

FITt = F + Tt

and

Ft = αDt–1 + (1 − α)FITt–1
Tt = Tt–1 + δ(Ft–1 – FITt–1),

where FITt = forecast for period t including the trend, Ft = smoothed forecast
for period t, Tt = smoothed trend for period t, Dt–1 = value in the previous time
period, 0 ≤ α = smoothing constant ≤ 1, and 0 ≤ δ = smoothing constant ≤ 1.

Linear Regression
Alternatively, when a trend exists in the data, regression analysis (chapter 7) is
often used for forecasting. Demand is the dependent, or Y, variable, and the
time period is the predictor, or X, variable. The regression equation

Ŷ = b(X) + a

can be restated using forecasting notation as

Ft = b(t) + a,

where Ft = forecast for period t, b = slope of the regression line, and a = Y inter-
cept. To find b and a, D = actual demand, D = average of all actual demands,
t = time period, and t = average of time periods, such that b = Σ (t – t )(D – D)
÷ Σ (t – t )2 and a = D – bt.

In time series forecasting, the predictor variable is time. Regression
analysis is also used in forecasting when a causal relationship exists between a
predictor variable (not time) and the demand variable of interest. For example,
if the number of surgeries to be performed at some future date is known, that
information can be used to forecast the number of surgical supplies needed.

Winter’s Triple Exponential Smoothed Model
In addition to adjusting for a trend, Winter’s triple exponential smoothed
model adjusts for a cycle or seasonality.

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models
Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, developed by Box
and Jenkins (1976), model a wide variety of time series behavior. However,

Healthcare Operat ions Management352

ARIMA is a complex technique; although it often produces appropriate models,
it requires a great deal of expertise to use.

Model Development and Evaluation
Forecasting models are developed on the basis of historical time series data
using the previously described techniques. Typically, the “best” model is the
simplest one available by which to minimize the forecast error associated with
that model. Mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), or
both may be used to determine error levels:

D F

n
MAD

| |
n

t t t1
Σ

=

=

D F

n
MSE ,t

n

t t1

2Σ( )
=


=

where t = period number, F = forecast demand for the period, D = actual
demand for the period, and n = total number of
periods.

Many of these forecasting models are available
as downloads on the companion website to this book.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Diaper Demand
Forecasting
Jessie Jones, purchasing agent for Vincent Valley Hospital and Health Sys-
tem (VVH), wants to forecast demand for diapers. She gathers information
related to past demand for diapers (exhibit 13.1) and plots it on a graph
(exhibit 13.2). The plot of weekly demand shows no cycles or trends, so Jes-
sie believes that an averaging method is most appropriate for achieving the
accuracy desired. She obtains a five-period SMA forecast; a WMA forecast
with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2; and an exponentially smoothed forecast
with an alpha of 0.25.

SMA forecast:

F
A A … A

p

F
A A A A

t
t t t p=

+ + +

=
+ + + +

− − −1 2

14
13 12 11 10 AA9

5
60 43 53 54 45

5
51= + + + + =

On the web at
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Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 353

Period Week of Cases of Diapers

1 1-Jan 70

2 8-Jan 42

3 15-Jan 63

4 22-Jan 52

5 29-Jan 56

6 5-Feb 53

7 12-Feb 66

8 19-Feb 61

9 26-Feb 45

10 5-Mar 54

11 12-Mar 53

12 19-Mar 43

13 26-Mar 60

EXHIBIT 13.1
VVH Weekly
Diaper Demand

W
ee

kl
y

D
em

an
d

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Period

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

EXHIBIT 13.2
Plot of VVH
Weekly Diaper
Demand

Healthcare Operat ions Management354

WMA forecast:

× × ×

− − −F w A w A w A

F w A w A w A

= + + . . . +

= ( ) + ( ) + ( )

= (0.5 60) + (0.3 43) + (0.2 53) = 53.5

t t t p t p1 1 2 2

14 1 13 2 12 3 11

Exponentially smoothed forecast:

F A F

F A F

= + 1

= 0.25 + (1 0.25)

= 0.25 60 + 0.75 52 = 54

t t t1 1

14 13 13

α α )( −

× − ×

× ×

− −

Because each method results in a different forecast, Jessie compares the
methods to determine which is best. She uses the Excel forecasting template
(found on the companion website) to perform the calculations (exhibit 13.3).

She finds that both MAD and MSE are lowest with
the WMA method and decides to use that method
for forecasting. Therefore, she forecasts that 53.5
cases of diapers will be demanded the week of April
2, period 14.

Order Amount and Timing

Inventory management is concerned with the following questions:

• How much inventory should the organization hold?
• When should an order be placed?
• How much should be ordered?

To answer these questions, organizations need reasonable estimates of holding,
ordering, and shortage costs. Knowledge of lead times and demand forecasts
is also essential to determining the best answers to inventory questions.

Economic Order Quantity Model
In the early 1900s, F. W. Harris (1913) developed the economic order quantity
(EOQ) model to answer inventory questions. Although the assumptions of
this model limit its usefulness in real situations, it provides important insights
into effective and efficient inventory management.

To aid in understanding the model, definitions for some key inventory
terms are provided.

On the web at
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Economic order
quantity (EOQ)
An inventory model
that indicates an
optimal purchase
quantity that will
minimize total
annual inventory
costs.

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 355

• Lead time is the interval between placing an order and receiving it.
• Holding (carrying) costs are associated with keeping goods in storage for

a period of time, usually one year. The most obvious of these costs are
the cost of the space and the cost of the labor and equipment needed
to operate the space. Less obvious costs include the opportunity cost
of capital and those costs associated with obsolescence, damage, and
theft of the goods. These costs are often difficult to measure and are
commonly estimated as one third to one half the value of the stored
goods per year.

• Ordering (setup) costs are the costs of ordering and receiving goods.
They may also be the costs associated with changing or setting up to
produce another product.

• Shortage costs are the costs of not having an item in inventory when it is
needed.

• Independent demand is generated by the customer and is not a result of
demand for another good or service.

• Dependent demand results from another demand. For example, the
demand for hernia surgical kits (dependent) is related to the demand
for hernia surgeries (independent).

• Back orders are orders that cannot be filled when received but are placed
because the customer is willing to wait for the order to be filled.

• Stockouts occur when the desired good is not available.

Simple Moving Average Weighted Moving Average (3 periods) Single Exponential Smoothing

Weight
3

Weight
2

Weight
1

Periods

Least
Recent

Most
Recent5

6DAM7DAM

52.05.03.02.0

MAD 8
ESMESM 86 75 MSE 135

Period Actual Forecast Error Period Actual Forecast Error Period Actual Forecast Error
1 70 1 70 1 70
2 42 2 42 2 42 70 28
3 63 3 63 3 63 63 0
4 52 4 52 58 6 4 52 63 11
5 56 5 56 53 3 5 56 60 4
6 53 57 4 6 53 56 3 6 53 59 6
7 66 53 13 7 66 54 12 7 66 58 8
8 61 58 3 8 61 60 1 8 61 60 1
9 45 58 13 9 45 61 16 9 45 60 15

10 54 56 2 10 54 54 0 10 54 56 2
11 53 56 3 11 53 53 0 11 53 56 3
12 43 56 13 12 43 52 9 12 43 55 12
13 60 51 9 13 60 48 12 13 60 52 8
14 51 14 53.5 14 54

EXHIBIT 13.3
Excel
Forecasting
Template
Output: VVH
Diaper Demand

Healthcare Operat ions Management356

The basic EOQ model is based on the following assumptions:

• Demand for the item in question is independent.
• Demand is known and constant.
• Lead time is known and constant.
• Ordering costs are known and constant.
• Back orders, stockouts, and quantity discounts are not allowed.

The EOQ inventory order cycle (exhibit 13.4) consists of stock or inven-
tory being received at a point in time. An order is placed when the amount
of stock on hand is just enough to cover the demand that will be experienced
during lead time. The new order arrives at the exact point when the stock is
completely depleted. The point at which new stock should be ordered, the
reorder point (R), is the quantity of stock demanded during lead time:

R = dL

where d = average demand per time period and L = lead time.
The EOQ inventory order cycle shows that the average amount of

inventory held will be

=
QOrder quantity

2 2

and the number of orders placed in one year will be

D
Q

Yearly demand
Order quantity

.=

Total costs are the sum of holding and ordering costs. Yearly holding
costs are calculated as follows:

Cost to hold one item one year × Average inventory = h ×
Q
2

.

Yearly ordering costs are

Cost to place one order × Yearly number of orders = o ×
Q
2

.

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 357

Total yearly costs are then

× + ×h
Q

o
D
Q2

.

Exhibit 13.5 illustrates these relationships. An inspection of this graph
shows that total cost is minimized when holding costs equal ordering costs.
(This relationship can also be proven using calculus.) In equation form, the
order quantity that will minimize total costs is found with

× + ×h
Q*

o
D
Q*2

,

where Q* is the EOQ.
Rearranging this equation, the optimal order quantity is

Q
o D
h

Q
o D
h

2

*
2

.

2 =
× ×

=
× ×

A key insight into inventory management can be gained from an exami-
nation of this simple model. First, trade-offs are inherent between holding
costs and ordering costs: As holding costs increase, optimal order quantity
decreases, and as ordering costs increase, optimal order quantity increases.

Demand
rate

In
ve

nt
or

y
Le

ve
l

Order
placed

Order qty, Q

Reorder point, R

Order
received

Order
placed

Order
received

Lead
time

Lead
time

0

EXHIBIT 13.4
EOQ Inventory
Order Cycle

Healthcare Operat ions Management358

Many organizations, including those in the healthcare industry, believe that the
costs of holding inventory are much higher than was previously thought. As a
consequence, these organizations are decreasing order quantities and working
to decrease order costs by streamlining procurement processes.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Diaper Order Quantity
Jessie Jones, VVH’s purchasing agent, now wants to determine the optimal
order quantity for diapers. From her forecasting work, she knows that annual
demand, D, for the item (in this case, diapers), is

× = × =d Time period
53.5 cases

week
52 weeks

year
2,782 cases

year
.

Each case of diapers costs $5, and Jessie estimates holding costs at 33
percent. The transaction cost is $100 to place an order. Lead time for diapers
is one week. She calculates the EOQ, Q*, as follows:

× ×
=

× ×

= =

o D
h

2 2 $100 2,782 cases
$1.67/case

333,174 cases 577 cases.2

She calculates the reorder point, R, as

= × =dL
53.5 cases

week
1 week 53.5 cases.

An
nu

al
C

os
t (

$)

Minimum
total cost

Total cost

Carrying cost = h � Q/2

Ordering cost = o � D/Q

Optimal order
quantity Q*

Order quantity (Q)

EXHIBIT 13.5
Economic Order
Quantity Model

Cost Curves

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 359

Jessie will need to place an order for 577 cases of diapers when the stock
drops to 53.5 cases.

Fixed Order Quantity with Safety Stock Model
The basic EOQ model assumes that demand is constant and known. In other
words, the amount of stock carried in inventory need only match demand.
In reality, demand is seldom constant, and excess inventory must be held to
meet variations in demand and avoid stockouts. This excess inventory, called
safety stock (SS), is the amount of inventory carried over and above expected
demand. Exhibit 13.6 illustrates this model.

The SS model assumes that demand varies and is normally distributed
(chapter 7). It also assumes that a fixed quantity equal to EOQ will always be
ordered. The EOQ remains the same as in the basic model, but the reorder
point differs because of the need for SS:

= +R dL SS.

The amount of SS to carry is determined by variation in demand and
desired service level. Service level is defined as the probability of having an
item on hand when needed. For example, suppose orders are placed at the
beginning of a time period and received at the end of that period. If demand
is expected to be 100 units in the next time period with a standard deviation
of 20 units and 100 units on hand at the start of the period, the probability

Service level
The probability
of having an item
on hand when
needed.

Order
quantity (Q)

In
ve

nt
or

y
Le

ve
l

Reorder
point (R)

Safety
stock (SS)

Lead
time

0

Lead
time

Time

EXHIBIT 13.6
Variable
Demand
Inventory Order
Cycle with
Safety Stock

Healthcare Operat ions Management360

of stocking out is 50 percent and the service level is 50 percent. If demand
is normally distributed, there is a 50 percent probability of its being higher
than the mean and a 50 percent probability of its being lower than the mean.
Demand is then greater than the stock on hand in half of the time periods.

To increase the service level, SS is needed. For example, if the stock on
hand at the start of the time period is 120 units (20 units of SS), the service
level increases to 84 percent and the probability of a stockout is reduced to
16 percent. Because demand is assumed to follow a normal distribution, and
120 units is exactly one standard deviation higher than the mean of 100 units,
the probability of being less than one standard deviation above the mean is
84 percent. There is a 16 percent probability of being more than one stan-
dard deviation above the mean (exhibit 13.7). A service level of 95 percent is
typically used in industry. However, if one stockout every 20 time periods is
unacceptable, a higher service level target is needed.

SS is the z-value associated with the desired service level (number of
standard deviations above the mean) multiplied by the standard deviation of
demand during lead time:

SS = z × σL.

Note that with this model, the only occasion in which demand variability
may be problematic is during lead time. Because an order is triggered when
a certain level of stock is reached, any variation in demand prior to that time
does not affect the reorder point.

Probability of meeting demand during
lead time = service level = 84%

Probability of a
stockout = 16%

R = reorder
point

100

0 1

Example units

Z

Average demand during lead time = dL

120

EXHIBIT 13.7
Service Level

and Safety
Stock

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 361

This model also provides critical information about inventory manage-
ment. Trade-offs exist between the amount of SS held and service level. As the
desired service level increases, the amount of SS needed—and therefore the
amount of inventory held—increases. As the variation in demand during lead
time increases, the amount of SS increases. If demand variation or lead time
can be decreased, the amount of SS needed to reach a desired service level
also decreases. Many healthcare organizations continuously work with their
suppliers to reduce lead time and, therefore, SS levels.

Vincent Valley Hospital and Health System Diaper Order Quantity
After learning more about inventory models, Jessie Jones has realized that the
reorder point she chose earlier by using the basic EOQ model will cause the
hospital to run out of diapers during 50 percent of the order cycles. Because
diapers are ordered five times per year, the hospital will stock out of diapers at
least twice a year. Jessie believes this is an unacceptable amount of stockouts
and determines that SS is needed to avoid them. She sets a service level of 95
percent, or one stockout every four years, as an acceptable threshold.

Jessie gathers additional information related to demand for diapers over
the past year and finds that the standard deviation of demand during lead time
is 11.5 cases of diapers. She calculates the amount of SS needed as follows:

z × σL = 1.64 × 11.5 = 18.9 cases.

Her new reorder point is

dL SS+ = ×





+ 18.9 cases = 72.4 cases.
53 5

1
. cases
week

week

Jessie needs to place an order for 577 cases of diapers when inventory
drops to 72.4 cases. The forecasting template found
on the companion website can be used to perform
these calculations, and the output related to Jessie’s
problem is shown in exhibit 13.8.

Additional Inventory Models
Many inventory models that address some of the limiting assumptions of the
EOQ have been developed. One is known as the fixed time period with SS
model, whereby the order quantity varies and the time at which the order is
placed is fixed. This type of model is applicable when vendors deliver on a set
schedule or if one supplier is used for many different products and orders are
bundled and delivered together on a set schedule. Generally, this situation
requires more SS because stockouts are possible during the entire time between

On the web at
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Healthcare Operat ions Management362

orders, not just the lead time for the order. Another inventory model is the
fixed order quantity with SS model, in which the order quantity is fixed and
the time at which the order is placed varies.

Models that account for quantity discounts and price breaks have also
been developed. Information on these high-level models can be found in most
inventory management textbooks.

Inventory Systems

In practice, various types of systems are employed for management and control
of inventory. They range from simple to complex, and organizations typically
employ a mixture of these systems.

Two-Bin System
The two-bin system is a simple, easily managed approach often used for B- or
C-type items. In this system, inventory is separated into two bins. These are
not necessarily actual bins or containers; the idea is to have in place a means
of identifying the items as being in the first or second bin.

In the two-bin system, inventory is taken from the first bin. When
that bin is emptied, an order is placed, and inventory from the second bin is
used during the lead time. The amount of inventory held in each bin can be
determined from the fixed order quantity with SS model. Inventory held in
the first bin is ideally the EOQ minus the reorder point, and inventory in the
second bin equals the reorder point.

Just-in-Time
Just-in-time (JIT) inventory systems are based on Lean concepts and employ
a type of two-bin system called kanban. (See chapter 10 for a description of
this type of system.) Because inventory levels are controlled by the number of

Reorder Point (ROP) with EOQ Ordering

Average daily demand
Average lead time
Std dev demand during lead time

Service level
increment

Stockout risk
z associated with service level
Average demand during lead time
Safety stock
Reorder point

d =
L =
L =

SL =
SL =

dL =
SS =

ROP =

7.64
7

11.5

0.95

0.05
1.64

53.48
18.9
72.4

Units
Days
Units

Units
Units
Units

0.0 20.0 40.0

Pr
ob

ab
ili

ty

Reorder Point

60.0 80.0 100.0

Daily demand

Daily demand

ROP

EXHIBIT 13.8
VVH 95 Percent

Service Level
Reorder Point

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 363

kanbans in the system and inventory is “waste” in a Lean system, organizations
try to decrease the number of kanbans as much as possible.

Material Requirements Planning and Enterprise Resources
Planning
Material requirements planning (MRP) systems were first employed by
manufacturing organizations in the 1960s when computers became commer-
cially available. These systems were used to manage and control the purchase
and production of dependent-demand items.

A simple example illustrates the logic of MRP (exhibit 13.9). A table
manufacturer knows (or forecasts) that 50 tables, consisting of a top and four
legs, will be demanded five weeks in the future. The manufacturer also knows
that producing a table takes one week if both the legs and the top are avail-
able. Lead time is two weeks for table legs and three weeks for tabletops. From
this information, MRP helps the manufacturer determine that, to produce 50
tables in week 5, it needs to have on hand 50 tabletops and 200 table legs in
week 4. The company also needs to order 200 table legs in week 2 and 50
tabletops in week 1.

The same type of logic can be applied in healthcare for dependent-
demand items. For example, if the demand for a particular type of surgery is
known or can be forecast, supplies related to this type of surgery can be ordered
on the basis of MRP-type logic.

Enterprise resources planning (ERP) evolved from the relatively
simple MRP systems as computing power grew and software applications
became more sophisticated. ERP-type systems in healthcare today are found
throughout the entire organization and include finance, accounting, human
resources, patient records, and many more functions in addition to inventory
management and control.

Material
requirements
planning (MRP)
A computer
system designed
to manage
the purchase
and control of
dependent-
demand items.

Enterprise
resources
planning (ERP)
Global information
systems that
help individuals
and groups
manage the entire
organization,
including
accounting,
operations, and
human resources.

Order
table tops

Order
table legs

1W 5432kee

EXHIBIT 13.9
Material
Requirements
Planning Logic

Healthcare Operat ions Management364

Procurement and Vendor Relationship Management

Analyzing and improving the processes used for procurement can result in signifi-
cant savings for an organization. Technology can be used to not only streamline
processes but also improve data reliability, accuracy, and visibility. Streamlining
procurement processes can also reduce associated labor costs. Electronic pro-
curement (e-procurement) is one example of how technology can be used to
increase procurement efficiency. The ease of obtaining product information, the
reduced time associated with the procurement process, and the increased use of
a limited number of suppliers can significantly reduce costs as well.

In addition to basic procurement data, information about supplier reli-
ability can be maintained in these systems to allow organizations to make
informed choices about vendors, assuming these entities track and regularly
review supplier performance. For example, one vendor may be inexpensive but
extremely unreliable, whereas another may be slightly more expensive but more
reliable and faster. Conducting an analysis can help an organization determine
that using the slightly more expensive vendor is prudent because the amount
of SS held or the need to expedite shipments may be reduced.

Value-based standardization can be used to reduce both the number
of different items and the quantity of those items held. Focusing on high-use
or high-cost items can leverage the benefits of standardization and reduce the
number of suppliers to the organization. Holding fewer supplies and engaging
fewer suppliers can result in both labor and material cost savings.

One effective means of ensuring supply availability and reducing internal
labor is outsourcing. Distributors can break orders down by point of use—for
example, the emergency department, the dietary department—and deliver
directly to that point as needed rather than having the organization’s person-
nel perform that function. In addition, the use of prepackaged supply packs
or surgical carts can reduce the amount of in-house labor needed to organize
these supplies and ensure that the correct supplies are available when needed.
Vendor-managed inventory is another way to outsource some of the work
involved with procurement, with automated supply carts or cabinets and point-
of-use systems enabling this type of inventory. Participation in group purchas-
ing organizations leverages increased order quantities, thereby reducing costs.

Finally, disintermediation is a way to improve supply chain management.
Reducing the number of organizations in the chain can result in reduced costs
and improvements in speed and reliability.

Strategic View

Most important of all the discussion related to the supply chain, effective SCM
requires a strategic systems analysis and design. This strategic view enables

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 365

systems solutions rather than individual solutions—an important distinction, as
best-practice solutions can be standardized across an entire organization rather
than applied haphazardly or incorrectly. A strategic design enables system-level
integration, allowing for improved decision making throughout the organization.

Successful SCM initiatives require the same elements as Six Sigma, Lean,
and the Baldrige criteria:

• Top management support and collaboration, including time and money
• Employee buy-in, including clinician support and frontline empowerment
• Evaluation of the structure and staffing of the supply chain to ensure

that it supports the desired improvements and that all relevant functions
are represented in a meaningful way (cross-functional teams may be the
best way to ensure this adherence)

• Process analysis and improvement, including a thorough and complete
understanding of existing systems, processes, and protocols (through
process mapping) and their improvement

• Collection and analysis of relevant, accurate data and metrics to
determine areas of improvement, means of improvement, and whether
improvement is achieved

• Evaluation of technology-enabled solutions in terms of both costs and
benefits

• Training in the use of new technologies and techniques, which is
essential for broad application and use in the organization

• Internal awareness programs to highlight the need for and benefits of
strategic SCM

• Improved inventory management through enhanced understanding of
the system-level consequences of unofficial inventory, JIT systems, and
inventory tracking systems

• Enhancement of vendor partnerships through information sharing and
the investigation and determination of mutually beneficial solutions

• Performance tracking of vendors to determine the best vendors to
involve in the SCM process

• Periodic education and continuous support by the organization for a
systemwide view of the supply chain

• Pursuit of continuous improvement of the system rather than of
individual departments or organizations in that system

Conclusion

In the past, healthcare organizations did not focus on SCM issues; today,
increasing cost pressures drive them to examine and optimize their supply

Healthcare Operat ions Management366

chains. The ideas and tools presented in this chapter help the healthcare supply
chain professional achieve improvements and thereby lower costs.

Discussion Questions

1. Why is SCM important to healthcare organizations?
2. List some inventory items found in your organization. Which of these

might be classified as A, B, or C items? Why? How would you manage
these items differently depending on their classification?

3. Think of an item for which your organization carries SS. Why is SS
needed for this item? Can the amount of SS needed be reduced? How?

4. Describe the ERP system(s) found in your organization. How could it
be improved?

Exercises

1. Using the materials available at the book’s companion website,
investigate and summarize commercially available
software solutions for healthcare organizations.
Using the forecasting template found on the

companion website, forecast total US healthcare expenditures for 2017
with SMA, WMA, SES, trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, and
linear trend models.
a. Which model do you believe offers the best forecast?
b. Do you see any problems with your model?
c. Repeat this exercise for hospital care, physician services, other

professional services, dental services, home health care, and
prescription drugs. According to your findings, do any one of these
areas drive the increase in healthcare expense?

2. Using the Excel inventory template found on the companion website if
you choose, and starting with an Excel spreadsheet
including data for this problem, which also is
available on the companion website, prepare the
following exercise.

Hospital purchasing agent Abby Smith needs to order examination
gloves. Currently, she orders 1,000 boxes of gloves whenever she thinks
a need for the item exists. Abby has heard that a better way is available
to do her job and wants to use EOQ to determine how much to order
and when. She collects the following information.

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

On the web at
ache.org/books/OpsManagement3

Chapter 13: Supply Chain Management 367

Cost of gloves: $4.00/box

Carrying costs: 33%, or $ /box

Cost of ordering: $150/order

Lead time: 10 days

Annual demand: 10,000 boxes/year

a. What quantity should Abby order? Prove that your order quantity is
“better” than Abby’s by graphing ordering costs, holding costs, and
total costs for 1,000, 1,500, and 2,000 boxes.

b. How often should Abby place the order? Approximately how much
time (in days) will elapse between orders?

c. Assuming that Abby is not worried about SS, when should she place
her order? Draw another graph to illustrate why she needs to place
her order at that particular point.

d. Abby is concerned that the reorder point she determined is wrong
because demand for gloves varies. She gathers the following usage
information:

Period (10 days each) Demand

1 274

2 274

3 284

4 274

5 254

6 264

7 264

8 284

9 274

10 294

11 274

12 284

13 264

14 274

Average 274

Healthcare Operat ions Management368

a. Abby decides she will be happy if the probability of a stockout is 5
percent. How much SS should Abby carry?

b. If Abby were to set up a two-bin system for gloves, how many boxes
of gloves would be in each bin?

References

Box, G. E. P., and G. M. Jenkins. 1976. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 2nd
edition. San Francisco: Holden-Day.

Chao, L. 2016. “Trinity Health Will Centralize Control of Its Medical Supply
Chain.” Wall Street Journal. Published March 10. www.wsj.com/articles/
trinity-health-will-centralize-control-of-its-medical-supply-chain-1457643981.

. 2015. “Hospitals Take High-Tech Approach to Supply Chain.” Wall Street
Journal. Published October 21. www.wsj.com/articles/hospitals-take-high-
tech-approach-to-supply-chain-1445353371.

Duffy, M. 2009. “Is Supply Chain the Cure for Rising Healthcare Costs?” Supply Chain
Management Review 13 (6): 28–35.

Femia, J., and A. Marshall. 2012. Vilfredo Pareto: Beyond Disciplinary Boundaries. New
York: Routledge.

Harris, F. W. 1913. “How Many Parts to Make at Once.” Factory, the Magazine of Manage-
ment 10 (2): 135–36, 152.

Johnson, C., and C. Teplitz. 2009. “Applying Collaborative Contracting to the Supply
Chain Department of a Regional Health Care Provider.” Journal of Applied Business
Research 25 (2): 41–50.

McKone-Sweet, K., P. Hamilton, and S. Willis. 2005. “The Ailing Healthcare Supply Chain:
A Prescription for Change.” Journal of Supply Chain Management 41 (1): 4–17.

Radianse. 2016. “Radianse Return on Investment.” Accessed October 10. www.radianse.
com/resources/radianse-roi/.

Wright, C. M. 2007. “Where’s My Defibrillator? More Effectively Tracking Hospital Assets.”
APICS 17 (1): 28–33.

CHAPTER

369

IMPROVING FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
WITH OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

Operations Management in
Action

Vidant Health’s main hospital is located in Green-
ville, North Carolina, but it has seven regional
hospitals—some at least two hours distant. The
census at the regional hospitals had been declin-
ing, while at the main hospital it was increasing.
This shift resulted in an issue of matching the
needed staff at each hospital to the actual census.
To resolve this dilemma, the system’s leadership
consulted with other organizations to find a tool
that could help deploy staff members where they
were needed the most throughout the system.
The result was Vidant FlexWork, a broad-based
application system that addresses both clinical
and administrative staffing for every hospital in
the system.

“Employees looking for additional shifts
to work enter the online Vidant FlexWork portal.”
Immediately, “special intervention” positions
appear. These are urgent openings for which staff
members receive incentive points should they
accept one. Those points translate to a standard-
ized plan that offers items ranging from gift cards
for national retailers to major appliances. “We
have balanced the incentive points with how much
it would cost us to hire additional people from an
external agency, so the program works to our ben-
efit,” says Lynn Lanier, vice president of finance
and operations at Vidant Health.

After the special intervention positions,
openings across the system are listed, which
match a predetermined set of criteria provided by

14
OVE RVI EW: TH E F I NANCIAL
PR E SS U R E FO R CHANGE

Better Tools for Improving Financial
Performance
Because Medicare is one of the largest sources of fund-

ing in the US healthcare system, its payment policies are

adopted by many other payers. Each year, the Medicare

Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC) recommends

payment policy changes to the Centers for Medicare &

Medicaid Services (CMS) and the US Congress. In these

reports, MedPAC goes to great lengths to examine Medicare

beneficiaries’ access to care, the number of hospitals going

into and out of business, and whether hospitals can make

a profit on Medicare revenues.

In response to numerous hospital executives

complaining that Medicare payment is insufficient, which

results in cost shifting to private payers, the 2016 MedPAC

report analyzed Medicare costs and margins for all hospi-

tals in the United States (MedPAC 2016):

In 2014, hospitals’ aggregate Medicare margin

was –5.8 percent. However, a set of relatively

efficient hospitals [was] able to break even

on Medicare while performing well on quality

metrics. In addition, hospitals’ marginal profits

under Medicare were positive 10 percent; thus,

hospitals with excess capacity had a financial

incentive to serve more Medicare patients.

Under current law, payment rates are projected

to decline from 2014 to 2016 due to a $3 billion

decline in uncompensated care payments and

(continued)

Healthcare Operat ions Management370

each employee, including skills,
expertise and desired location.
“In addition to the cost savings
associated with the FlexWork
portal, this tool has helped us
think more like a system as
opposed to a collection of hos-
pitals,” says Lanier. “When we
cross-pollinate our employees
this way, our quality message
and initiatives are strength-
ened.” On average, 20 percent
of the shifts posted are awarded
to non-home-unit employees,
meaning that someone whose
primary job is not in that unit
has worked in a sister unit in
the same or another hospital, or
a different unit altogether. And
Vidant Health is seeing those
numbers consistently rise over time.

Since its implementation in 2008, FlexWork has saved, on average, between
$5 million and $9 million annually. When FlexWork first went live, the system had
five regional hospitals outside of its flagship facility. Now in ten hospitals, FlexWork
has made the integration of those facilities even more effective. “When several of
the newer hospitals came into our system, their productivity measures weren’t
where we would have liked them, and that caused them to operate at a higher
cost,” says Lanier.

Source: Excerpted and adapted from May (2013).

Making Ends Meet on Medicare and the Pressure of
Narrow Networks

A number of forces have historically worked together to increase the total costs
of care beyond inflation:

• The increasing incidence of chronic disease
• An aging population
• New diagnostic and treatment technologies

OVE RVI EW (Continued)

other policy changes (by law, uncompen-

sated care payments decline when the

share of the population that is insured

increases). We project hospitals’ aggre-

gate Medicare margin for 2016 will be

about –9 percent.

MedPAC’s implicit conclusion is that

because some hospitals do well with Medicare

payment levels, all others should be able to thrive

at these payment levels as well.

This policy direction is woven throughout

the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and the goal of policy-

makers in the United States is to stabilize or reduce

the growth of healthcare costs until it equals the

general rate of inflation.

Chapter 14: Improving F inancial Performance with Operat ions Management 371

• The increasing complexity of billing and payment systems
• A provider payment system (fee-for-service) that encourages the use of

healthcare services

Today’s healthcare executive is therefore caught between two intense
environmental pressures: the need to reduce costs in the face of continuing
inflationary pressures and the expectation of little new revenue. This chapter
provides a road map to stable or improved financial performance through the
use of operations management tools presented in the preceding chapters of
this book.

Specifically, this chapter

• defines improved financial performance,
• describes a systems view of reducing costs and increasing revenues that

takes into consideration the new value purchasing methodologies used
for payment for services,

• details how the operations tools described in this book can be used to
optimize costs and revenue for each of these payment methodologies,
and

• provides a case example of one hospital that has improved its operations
enough to generate a positive margin on Medicare revenues.

Definition of Financial Improvement
Although this textbook is not primarily about financial management, a num-
ber of measures are generally accepted as indicators of the successful financial
performance of a healthcare enterprise. (For a more comprehensive view, refer
to Gapenski and Reiter [2016].)

From a balance sheet perspective, three indicators are frequently used
to assess an organization’s performance (Cleverley and Cleverley 2010):

• Cash on hand
• Percentage of debt financed
• Age of plant

Three key indicators of financial health on the income statement are the
following:

• Revenue (growth or decline)
• Margin
• Costs (per unit of service)

Healthcare Operat ions Management372

Because revenue growth per service is likely to increase slowly (in Medi-
care’s case, it may actually decline), healthcare executives must focus on col-
lecting all available revenue while reducing costs. The approaches described
in this chapter can achieve these goals. Furthermore, in addition to achieving
these financial goals, the use of operations management tools almost always
results in stable or improved clinical quality and patient satisfaction.

A Systems Approach to Financial Management
Meeting financial goals is part of most healthcare managers’ job descriptions,
yet many organizations lack a comprehensive approach to supporting the
manager in achieving these goals. Without this type of framework, managers
are often required to take measures that may provide immediate results but
foster long-term problems. Some examples include

• adopting across-the-board expense reductions,
• eliminating overtime without changing any processes,
• using less expensive supplies without changes in the supply chain,
• tolerating queuing and long waits for service, and
• outsourcing key activities without having quality monitoring systems in

place.

A more effective and longer-lasting methodology than the above mea-
sures is a systems approach to financial management (see exhibit 14.1). First,
expenses are divided into those directly related to revenue generation and
those considered overhead. Because multiple payment methodologies are in
place today and for the foreseeable future, revenue is further divided into these
various models. Each category can be addressed with the techniques described
in this chapter.

Reduction in overhead expenses is more straightforward than in revenue-
related expenses, and therefore more general techniques can be used. Revenue
can be improved and optimized by growing service lines and optimizing the
revenue cycle.

Expenses Directly Related to Revenue
All expenses directly related to revenue should be classified into six payment
methodologies:

• Fee-for-service
• Bundled
• Shared savings
• Full capitation

Chapter 14: Improving F inancial Performance with Operat ions Management 373

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Healthcare Operat ions Management374

• Quality bonuses or penalties
• Global payments

These payment areas are discussed in detail later in the section.
Next, projects are chartered with a focus on each specific payment meth-

odology and operating unit(s). The first step in the project is to collect data
on the current state of service delivery and determine where variance occurs
in resources used and outcomes achieved. The tools of process improvement,
supply chain management, and schedule optimization are then applied to
reduce variance and improve outcomes. This approach reduces costs and, in
many instances, increases throughput.

Fee-for-Service
The most atomic-level area of cost control is individual fee-for-service. Although
the delivery of each service contains a variety of components (personnel, sup-
plies, overhead), the “fee” is created to represent an identifiable service that
is understandable by the providers and payers. Examples include services such
as an office visit and a laboratory test.

Activity-based costing (ABC) is a tool that can be used to deconstruct
the billing service unit and identify opportunities for cost reductions. Gapenski
and Reiter (2016, chapter 7) provide a useful example of using ABC to analyze
the clinic visit.

ABC follows five steps:

1. Identify the relevant activities.
2. Determine the total cost of each activity, including direct and indirect

costs.
3. Determine the cost drivers for the activity.
4. Collect activity data for each service.
5. Calculate the total cost of the service by aggregating activity costs.

For example, Gapenski and Reiter (2016) assume that the total annual
cost of patient check-in, consisting of clerical labor (direct costs) plus space
and other overhead costs (indirect costs), are $50,000 to support 10,000
visits per year. This calculation yields an allocation rate of $5 per visit. Similar
calculations are made for each component of the office visit, and the allocation
rate is then determined for each activity (exhibit 14.2). Once the allocation
rates are determined, the total activity costs for each service can be calculated
(exhibit 14.3).

Each cost element can be optimized with the tools described in this
book. Exhibit 14.4 provides examples.

Activity-based
costing (ABC)
A cost allocation
model that assigns
a cost to each
activity in an
organizational
unit and then
totals the cost for
the unit on the
basis of the actual
consumption of
each activity.

Chapter 14: Improving F inancial Performance with Operat ions Management 375

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Healthcare Operat ions Management376

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Chapter 14: Improving F inancial Performance with Operat ions Management 377

After each activity in a service is analyzed and improved, the total ser-
vice cost can also be optimized by using Six Sigma and Lean techniques, as
described in chapters 9 and 10, respectively. Chapter 11 outlines a number of
specific techniques to optimize throughput in a clinic (hence reducing people
cost per visit), and chapter 13 provides a number of supply chain management
techniques to reduce supply costs. As costs are reduced at the fee-for-service
level, costs at all other levels decrease as well.

Bundled Payments
Various fees are frequently bundled together and paid as one amount. The
intent of bundling is to give the provider an incentive to minimize costs inside
the bundle. Examples of bundled payments in hospitals include the following:

• Per diem. All payments for a day in a hospital are paid at one rate.
• Medicare prospective payment. All payments for a stay in the hospital are

paid at one rate that is adjusted for the complexity of the admission by
the diagnosis-related group (DRG) system.

• Medicare bundled payment. All payments for an episode of care are paid
at one rate adjusted for complexity.

To optimize the cost structure of bundled payments, the underlying
fee-for-service costs must be targeted and improved. Because hospitals have
created and maintain thousands of individual fees in a document known as the
chargemaster, an analysis project should be undertaken to identify which fees
to target. Criteria for targeting may include the following:

Activity Improvement Tools Opportunity

Check-in Process improvement (Lean and
Six Sigma, simulation, etc.) automation

Strong

Assessment Process improvement Low

Diagnosis Evidence-based medicine Medium

Treatment Evidence-based medicine Medium

Prescription Supply chain management Strong

Check-out Process improvement, automation Strong

Billing Data mining and analysis, process
improvement

Strong

EXHIBIT 14.4
Use of
Operations
Improvement
Tools to Reduce
Costs

Healthcare Operat ions Management378

• High volume
• High cost compared to benchmarks from other organizations
• High use in bundled payments where costs are highly variable

After reducing the costs for individual services, the tools of evidence-
based medicine (EBM) can now be applied. They are particularly useful for
optimizing costs in bundled payment models, as these protocols reflect the
shared wisdom of many clinical studies on the most efficient and effective
approach to a particular condition. Chapter 3 outlines contemporary approaches
to the use of EBM and the power of clinical decision support systems to sup-
port its implementation. Tracking physicians’ variance in their application of
EBM provides another useful opportunity for cost reduction.

Shared Savings
The next higher level of payment is the shared savings model, which is most
prominently featured in the ACA as the accountable care organization (ACO).
In the initial shared savings model, reimbursement was still made via fee-for-
service or bundled payments. However, patients were attributed to the ACO on
the basis of their use of primary care providers (e.g., 50 percent of their primary
care was provided by an ACO’s primary care team). Costs for all patients were
then summed for a period, and if these total costs were less than a target set by
the payer, the savings were shared with both providers and payer.

An advantage of the ACO model is that it permits a variety of providers
to form new systems of care to deliver services to Medicare beneficiaries. CMS
continues to refine this model to increase provider participation and moderate
healthcare costs for Medicare beneficiaries. The most current information on
CMS ACO models can be found on the “Accountable Care Organizations”
page of the CMS (2015) website.

Success in the shared savings model requires new data systems to track
patients from a longitudinal perspective beyond each episode of service to ensure
that when higher-than-expected costs occur, case managers can intervene.
The goal of management in this model is to stay within expected expenses per
patient per month while achieving quality benchmarks. This type of challenge
is well suited for tools of Six Sigma such as the following:

• Run and control charts
• Pareto diagrams
• Cause-and-effect diagrams
• Scatter plots
• Regression analysis
• Benchmarking

Shared savings
model
A model of
healthcare delivery
that includes
an organized
system of delivery,
accountability for
the quality and
costs of services,
and a sharing of
savings with the
payer for these
services.

Chapter 14: Improving F inancial Performance with Operat ions Management 379

Six Sigma is detailed in depth in chapter 9. In addition, the full suite of
analytical tools discussed in chapter 8 can be used for this task. The tools of
EBM—including chronic disease management, the medical home, compara-
tive effectiveness research, and electronic health records with clinical decision
support—are also important for implementing the shared savings model.

Full Capitation
The highest level of payment is full capitation. This type of arrangement with
a payer should only be accepted if the organization has had experience and
success with the shared savings model.

If an organization has successfully implemented a one-sided ACO-type
organization and has a stable provider base and market, it may transition to
a two-sided ACO, a fully state-certified health plan, or a partnership with an
existing health plan to receive full capitation. In this model, the savings or loss
per member per month is fully borne by the provider organization.

The key to success in this model is to reduce the use of expensive
resources, which can be achieved through disciplined attention to improving
systems of care. One of the most successful examples is Group Health Coopera-
tive in Seattle. Its CEO outlines the following initiatives and their outcomes
(Vaida 2011):

• Implement healthcare home—10 percent drop in inpatient admissions,
20 percent decline in emergency room use

• Implement shared decision making for surgery on basis of EBM
findings—12 percent drop in elective surgeries

• Develop new systems to prevent readmissions of Medicare patients through
EBM and process improvement—7 percent decline in readmission rate

Quality Bonuses or Penalties
Chapter 3 reviews a number of current and anticipated value purchasing mea-
sures. The policy emphasis has shifted from paying for volume to paying for
value. Because these new payment systems are complex and frequently changing,
establishing process improvement teams (chapter 5) and using balanced score-
card techniques (chapter 4) are important for healthcare leaders in monitoring
results. These project teams can use all the tools of process improvement (Lean,
Six Sigma, process simulation) to change procedures for improved results.
Examples of teams include the following (Healthcare.gov 2012):

• Readmission reductions
• Length-of-stay management
• Hospital-acquired infection and condition reductions

Full capitation
A methodology in
which providers
are paid a monthly
fee for each patient
who receives care
in their system.

Healthcare Operat ions Management380

• Joint Commission core measures
• Publicly reported quality measures

Monitoring the results of comparative effectiveness research is impor-
tant to ensure that the provider is using the most current EBM. The Agency
for Healthcare Research and Quality has provided the Effective Health Care
Program website (http://effectivehealthcare.ahrq.gov) as an easily accessible
guide to the newest discoveries.

Global Payments
The ACA contains a mandate for a demonstration to evaluate the use of global
budgets for hospital payments. In this model, the hospital negotiates one annual
payment budget for its services and must keep its costs under this budget—
regardless of patient volume or acuity. The global payment model is common
in many countries other than the United States. The model has the advantage
of predictability for both the payers and providers, and it substantially reduces
overhead costs for billing systems. However, increases in patient demand or
new technology cannot be easily or quickly accommodated, and in some cases
a delay results in queuing for elective services such as hip replacement.

All of the cost management tools contained in this book are useful to suc-
ceed in this environment. However, the following can carry the largest impact:

• Balanced scorecard strategy maps and reporting
• Analytics, benchmarking, and statistical tools to identify opportunities

for cost reductions
• Process improvement with Lean and Six Sigma, with a special emphasis

on services that develop queues
• Scheduling and capacity management
• Supply chain management

Overhead Expenses
All costs not directly related to revenue are overhead. A number of both general
and specific tools can be used to reduce overhead expenses.

Process Improvement
All of the process improvement tools discussed in this book (chapters 9 through
11) can also be applied to administrative processes in overhead departments.
Examples include hiring new employees, conducting marketing campaigns,
and processing patient complaints.

Chapter 14: Improving F inancial Performance with Operat ions Management 381

Consolidated Activities
Many “miscellaneous” expenses are spread through all departments with no
individual in charge of managing their costs. These items can include travel,
consulting, and dues fees. By centralizing management costs, savings can be
achieved through bidding and the selection of a prime vendor. The various
tools of project management, including earned value analysis, can be useful in
holding vendors accountable for results and costs—especially for consulting
contracts.

Staffing Layers
As organizations grow, close attention should be paid to the layers of manage-
ment. Symptoms of overlayering include many departmental assistant managers
and a proliferation of administrative assistants. These layers can be avoided
through the crisp use of strategy maps and scorecards, which are closely linked
to the organization’s data warehouse.

Meetings, Reports, and Automation Tools
“Why do I need to go to these meetings? I have real work to do.” This is a
familiar complaint from many healthcare workers—especially clinicians. Meet-
ings should be minimized and the discipline of good meeting management
maintained at all times (see chapter 5). One step in good meeting management
is the evaluation of the meeting itself (usually at the end), and one question
that should always be asked is, Do we need this meeting in the future?

Historically, many organizations have relied on paper reports that are
sent to “management.” These reports should be either automated and sent
via e-mail or moved to electronic scorecards. The five whys of Lean are useful
in evaluating reports:

1. Why am I getting this report?
2. Why do you think I need these numbers?
3. Why can’t I use an exception report?
4. Why can’t these exceptions be part of a scorecard with an andon

indicator (red, yellow, blue)?
5. Why can’t the scorecard include a follow-up task with assigned

accountability?

As desktop computing, networks, and database design have matured,
many automation tools have been developed to improve office and clerical
productivity. Web conferences now are a reasonable substitute for face-to-face
meetings and can save significant travel time and expense. Calendaring tools

Healthcare Operat ions Management382

allow individuals to efficiently schedule meetings without the aid of assistants.
Blogs, social media, and texting are other tools that can be used, albeit with
care regarding security and other issues, to improve the productivity and con-
nectivity of managers.

Facility and Capital Costs
The acquisition and deployment of capital is beyond the scope of this text-
book. However, evaluating the use of facilities can offer a significant oppor-
tunity for cost reduction. Clinical space use optimization is best exercised
with the patient flow improvement tools in chapter 11. In addition, storage
space can be minimized by the effective application of the Lean tool known
as the five Ss.

Administrative space should be evaluated to discern whether employees
need to be on-site. Many organizations have developed effective work-at-home
policies for employees with high-speed Internet access. A half-step toward
completely working at home is hoteling. In this model, the employee works
most of her time at home but comes to the office one or two days per week.
When she is at the office, she is given a workspace that is assigned the same
way hotel rooms are managed. Hoteling can save up to 80 percent of the space
otherwise required for these employees.

Prioritized Departmental Activities
The most aggressive cost-reduction technique in a department is to eliminate
an existing function. A useful approach is to create a cost/importance chart,
as shown in exhibit 14.5. The location of each function dictates whether it
may be eliminated.

The vertical axis is the importance of a function to accomplishing a
department’s mission.

The horizontal axis is the cost of the function. ABC is a useful costing
method for these determinations, as most overhead budgets lump costs into
basic expense types (e.g., personnel, supplies, services, miscellaneous). Once
the chart is complete, managers may target high-cost, low-importance func-
tions for reduction or elimination (function D in exhibit 14.5).

Revenue
The primary focus of this chapter is on cost reduction, but opportunities also
exist for improving revenue through the use of operations management tools.
The general challenge of increased revenue is also addressed in another book
from Health Administration Press, Introduction to the Financial Management
o